In the end, our expectations may have been too great.

[JohnC]

The expectations should have been the playoffs and we had the schedule to make it. It was a failure of a season. We went 1-3 against the garbage NFC East and somehow made a top 3 defense bad.

I agree with your response.

 

The most influential person in the organization, the GM, stated on numerous occasions prior to the season that he believed that this was a playoff team and that if it didn't materialize this year he would be deeply disappointed.

 

Clearly his focus of attention in the offseason was addressing offensive needs. He signed Incognito, McCoy and Clay to bolster the offense. To top it off TT played beyond most of our expectations reasonably well as a first time starter. Each of his additions made important contributions to the offense.

 

What the GM could not have expected is that the defense under this new defensive minded regime would drop off the cliff and negate the progress made on the offensive side of the ball. There is no way to look at this season other than as a failure.

[C.Biscuit97]

I agree with your response.

 

The most influential person in the organization, the GM, stated on numerous occasions prior to the season that he believed that this was a playoff team and that if it didn't materialize this year he would be deeply disappointed.

 

Clearly his focus of attention in the offseason was addressing offensive needs. He signed Incognito, McCoy and Clay to bolster the offense. To top it off TT played beyond most of our expectations reasonably well as a first time starter. Each of his additions made important contributions to the offense.

 

What the GM could not have expected is that the defense under this new defensive minded regime would drop off the cliff and negate the progress made on the offensive side of the ball. There is no way to look at this season other than as a failure.

Well said.

 

Never in my wildest dreams could I imagine Rex making our defense so bad. I'm not in the fire Rex camp but my expectations for next season are going to be way lower (which probably isn't a bad thing).

 

I still believe this is a very talented roster and the playoffs are very much in reach next year. But this is the most disappointed I have been in a Bills team in a long time.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I appreciate the thought put into your post, but it's No Sale here.

 

We had a right, as fans, to expect the team to be prepared and decently disciplined, to show up and go hard on Sundays, and for the coaches to make adjustments.

 

Even if last year's D overperformed and this year's D regressed, to, say, 2013 when they were 10th overall...if we were disciplined to avoid those dumba** penalties and to go hard, I say 2 more wins and last Sunday's games sends either team to the playoffs with a W.

 

Remember when we scrimmaged the Steelers, kicked their a** offensively, and said "welp, no biggie, they're not very good"? Well hey ya'll, guess whose goin' to playoffs.

 

Fan expectations were not the problem here.

[JohnC]

Well said.

 

Never in my wildest dreams could I imagine Rex making our defense so bad. I'm not in the fire Rex camp but my expectations for next season are going to be way lower (which probably isn't a bad thing).

 

I still believe this is a very talented roster and the playoffs are very much in reach next year. But this is the most disappointed I have been in a Bills team in a long time.

If you want to put things in perspective in this season and looking toward the future consider the caliber of coaching for the teams participating in the playoffs and compare it to how our HC ranks with them. Belichick, Tomlin, McCarthy, Arians, Carroll, Reid, O'Brien, Rivera, Lewis, Gruden etc. There is not one HC participating in the playoffs who any fair-minded person would judge to be a lesser HC than the one working in western NY. That is what our organization is competing against. And that is why I am troubled about our prospects in the future.

[bobobonators]

The expectations should have been the playoffs and we had the schedule to make it. It was a failure of a season. We went 1-3 against the garbage NFC East and somehow made a top 3 defense bad.

Yup. Looking back the season came down to not being able to beat the Jags. And not being able to take a single game from the Giants/Eagles/Skins.

 

Our schedule next year looks brutal with the afc north, hawks, cardinals and panthers. Oh boy.

If you want to put things in perspective in this season and looking toward the future consider the caliber of coaching for the teams participating in the playoffs and compare it to how our HC ranks with them. Belichick, Tomlin, McCarthy, Arians, Carroll, Reid, O'Brien, Rivera, Lewis, Gruden etc. There is not one HC participating in the playoffs who any fair-minded person would judge to be a lesser HC than the one working in western NY. That is what our organization is competing against. And that is why I am troubled about our prospects in the future.

Other than Belichick, Tomlin, McCarthy, what have the others achieved in the NFL that Rex hasnt? And we're not talking about Rex having success 20 yrs ago. Its still fairly recent.

 

Be objective.

Gruden Lewis Rivera Obrien have all been on the hot seat within the last few years. Thats how great they are..

[JohnC]

 

Be objective.

Gruden Lewis Rivera Obrien have all been on the hot seat within the last few years. Thats how great they are..

I didn't say all the coaches I mentioned were great. Where did you get that from? What I did say is that all the playoff qualifying coaches this year are better HC coaches than RR. I challenge you to name any coach I referred to that Rex out coached this year? Please be objective in your evaluation and comparison between RR and the list of coaches I mentioned.

[ganesh]

with a halfway decent defense we are in the playoffs given how unexpectedly well our offense has played at times. we are better than the Chiefs and Jets and yet we were out of the mix the last month of the season. just think if we had a top 10 defense! i'd put us on par with Denver and Cinci at that point. our expectations were where they should be and we underperformed

Don't you think that the same offense did nothing in the 2nd half of the games against the Chiefs and Patriots after taking a lead in the 1st half ? The Offense was guilty as much as the defense.

 

Also, both the offense and defense could not make vital plays at the end of the game to make a difference. For example, the Defense allows the Jaguars to score a TD in the last 3 minutes after the Bills ahd take the lead via an INT return for TD. Similarly, the Offense could not muster anything against the Chiefs or the Eagles at the end of the game

[K D]

Doesn't matter. We never could have expected this much from the offense at the beginning of the year. This is far and away the best offense Rex has ever had and he's been 1 game away from the Super Bowl twice

 

Meanwhile this has been his worst defense by far in his career and it's not for lack of talent as we were top 3 last year. HUGE LETDOWN

[bobobonators]

I didn't say all the coaches I mentioned were great. Where did you get that from? What I did say is that all the playoff qualifying coaches this year are better HC coaches than RR. I challenge you to name any coach I referred to that Rex out coached this year? Please be objective in your evaluation and comparison between RR and the list of coaches I mentioned.

 

You specifically mentioned coaching rankings and then threw out a list of coaches, stating that all of the coaches you listed are no less a quality of a HC than Rex is. You even stated "no fair-minded" person would think that.

 

So you stated that all of those coaches are either equal to, or better than Rex.

 

I consider myself a fair-minded person and I disagree.

 

Within the last 6 years (which is very recent), Rex Ryan as a Head Coach has been in two AFC Championship games. He has a 4-2 playoff record, including a landmark victory over the Patriots in the playoffs - on the road.

 

Now, lets look at the coaches you have listed (excluding Belichik, Tomlin, McCarthy):

 

Gruden: No playoff victories. Hasn't achieved squat.

 

Lewis: HC of one of the most talented rosters in the NFL over the last 2-3 years. 0-6 in the playoffs. Zero landmark victories.

 

Rivera: 1-2 playoff record.

 

O'Brien: No playoff victories. Hasn't achieved squat.

 

So, as a fair-minded person, how can you fairly state that Gruden or O'Brien are "no less" the HC than Rex is? What parameters are you utilizing for that statement?

 

And lets not even go back to what Rex accomplished as a coordinator for the Ravens where they finished top 5 in defense 3 out of the 4 years he was their defensive coordinator - including #1 overall; #2 overall; and #5 overall.

 

Rex Ryan was able to take a Jets team to consecutive AFC Championship games on sheer will, because lord knows that roster was not littered with talent.

Edited January 6, 2016 by bobobonators

[Hapless Bills Fan]

You specifically mentioned coaching rankings and then threw out a list of coaches, stating that all of the coaches you listed are no less a quality of a HC than Rex is. You even stated "no fair-minded" person would think that.

(reasoned assessment of coaches deleted)

Rex Ryan was able to take a Jets team to consecutive AFC Championship games on sheer will, because lord knows that roster was not littered with talent.

 

This is actually a very interesting point. Rex has a reputation as a "players coach", that players try to walk through walls for him because he builds this relationship that they don't want to let him down

 

I wonder if it works better for lesser players than for established stars. Maybe the Bills D finally looked as though they had their act together and were clicking and going hard, BECAUSE so many starters were injured and backups, who were more under the "Rex Effect" spell, were playing?

 

Just a thought.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

LOL. My expectations were the following: Best case scenario 10-6 and our defense would regress a bit. I had zero idea how the offense would do because i had no idea how TT would perform.

 

It turns out the offense performed much better than expected, but the defense was a bit worse than what I expected them to regress to.

 

 

I'm not going to sit here and pretend I understand every single intricacy of Rex's scheme, but how different is Rex's scheme from the one that Pettine runs? Pettine and Rex were together from 2002 - 2012 - tied at the hip.

 

Look at the numbers MW, KW and Hughes put up under Pettine in 2013. They were very good. Just how much of a difference is there between Rex and Pettine in terms of complexity? Is it really THAT different? Or could it also be that MW, Hughes, MD all had down years as a unit from last year?

 

How often do we see players get paid and then regress? pretty often.

I thought this too at first, except it wouldn't explain why all the all pro lineman are b!tching about how complicated the scheme is, how misused they are the steep leanring curve, their poor production and all their field confusion.

 

At least one vet would have said "it's the same d as 2013"

 

Maybe pettine was more deliberate in curtailing the scheme to the talent. Maybe he assigned less read and react to the players and allowed them to attack.

 

Remember scheme is a lot more than number of guys standing vs in stances. It starts with where you line up, but much more important is what your actual job is once the ball is snapped.

[bobobonators]

 

This is actually a very interesting point. Rex has a reputation as a "players coach", that players try to walk through walls for him because he builds this relationship that they don't want to let him down

 

I wonder if it works better for lesser players than for established stars. Maybe the Bills D finally looked as though they had their act together and were clicking and going hard, BECAUSE so many starters were injured and backups, who were more under the "Rex Effect" spell, were playing?

 

Just a thought.

 

I've thought the exact same thing.

 

Despite Rex's success with the Jets, I wonder if all the hoopla with him in the media (the foot fetish nonsense) and his time on hard knocks kind of discredited him a bit with players outside the Jets organization - specifically with players on a rival team like the Bills. This core group of Bills defensive players (MW, MD, Hughes, KW, etc) have all competed against Rex and the Jets as a division rival for a few years now...so part of me wonders whether or not they take him that seriously as a result (compared to a player that rarely played vs. Rex and was in another division etc., and was not caught up on all of the division rival nonsense that goes on). This is not to say that Bills players don't like Rex and that all defensive players on the Bills don't believe in Rex - but like you said, my concern would be with the veteran superstars that have been around the block already and may not be as open to Rex's motivation.

 

We'll see. That angle, if true, makes me a little concerned.

Edited January 6, 2016 by bobobonators

[CodeMonkey]

Well, if they were, they were set by Ryan and the Bills organization, so ...

[bobobonators]

Well, if they were, they were set by Ryan and the Bills organization, so ...

 

Hard to argue against that.

[quinnearlysghost88]

This should be the Buffalo Bills motto moving forward.

[8-8 Forever?]

i guess. did not know Rex's defense was so "QB-Confusion" focussed, which is fine, but not as a steady diet on 3rd down. that surprised me and that he doesn't seem to have consulted with his players on it until very late in the season... there probably are reasons that we will never know, but that whole thing was a little strange

 

Having the whole starting backfield disappear there during 1st half of the season cost us a game or two for sure. probably a straight up 10-6 or 9-7 team that injuried and new coached its way to 8-8.

[boater]

... A regression to the mean may have occurred regardless of who the D-Coordinator would have been...

 

You said a "regression to the mean" in the appropriate context ... well done!

 

A well researched, analyzed and articulated post.

 

..and I agree with your premise: we expected too much, and another Rex year is appropriate.

[OP Class75]

From the beginning, I took a wait and see / benefit of the doubt when it came to Rex Ryan. I was at the KC game. It was then that the benefit of the doubt in my view was removed. My concern with RR from the start was the defense - regression to the mean or whatever, why fix what was not broken??? We are not talking of a drop in productivity, we are talking about a top 5 defense and turning it into a mediocre defense. RR is an arrogant blowhard. I know this will not happen, but I would like to see Ryan Fired, Schwartz hired and HC, and Roman retained as OC. Ryan is looser!!!!

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Our expectations were based on new ownership, an influx of talented players, the fact that we had a decent and exciting quarterback for the first time in years, and that we'd hired a name coach with a interesting persona. What destroyed these expectations were a significant number of injuries and a head coach who turned out to be quite overrated. The injuries were unavoidable but the coaching hire was a mistake. Any team that does not adapt itself to player strengths and utilize personnel properly, doesn't make adjustments as necessary, and remains so undisciplined that it leads the league in penalties has a coaching problem, pure and simple.

[Adam]

Though I loved Schwartz, I don't think one can simply say our defense was going to continue to be as stellar this year as it was last year. Some players on this D had career years (or matched career highs) last year (Hughes/Dareus/MW mainly) and our DLine was healthy most of the year.

 

Hughes and Dareus got paid and KW got injured this year. MW through a hissy fit and decided to stop playing. A regression to the mean may have occurred regardless of who the D-Coordinator would have been.

 

Look at Schwartz's time in Detroit (Granted he was the HC and not the DC - Gunther Cunningham was the D-coordinator):

 

2009: Last in yds/game; last in pts/game (*he inherited a god-awful team)

2010: 21st in yds/game; 19th in pts/game (huge improvement)

2011: 23rd in yds/game; 23rd in pts/game (slight regression)

2012: 13th in yds/game; 27th in pts/game (more of a regression)

2013: 16th in yds/game; 15th in pts/game (improvement)

 

The previous three years before Schwartz arrived to Buffalo the Bills were:

 

2011: 26th in yds/game; 30th in pts/game (George Edwards)

2012: 22nd in yds/game; 26th in pts/game (Dave Wannstedt) (first year that MW, KW and MD are all together)

2013: 10th in yds/game; 20th in pts/game (Mike Pettine) (first year that Hughes, MW, KW and MD are all together)

 

With Schwartz in 2014: 4th in yds/game; 4th in pts/game - It's almost impossible to get better than this in 2015. It was an epic year defensively.

 

Coincidently, the year after Schwartz left Detroit, Detroit had a monster defensive year: 3rd in pts/game; and 2nd in yds/game under Teryl Austin. However, under Austin they finished 18th in yds/game and 23rd in pts/game this year. That's a huge drop off but to be fair, the Lions lost several key players over the off season.

 

What all this says to me is that Schwartz's scheme may have indeed been a great fit for this Bills defense but it also can't be ignored how 2014 was a perfect storm in terms of production from key players such as MW, MD and Hughes. The current crop of players on this defense had been together a few years already and were improving a bit each year through 2013 until finally exploding in 2014. We couldn't have possibly expected MD/Hughes/MW to have even better years than their career years in 2014 and they didn't - not even close. The KW injury also hurt this defense.

 

At the end of the day, in 2015 under Rex we finished 15th in pts/game; and 19th in yds/game - numbers that are pretty similar to those produced by this core crop of defensive players (KW, MW, Hughes, MD, Gilmore, etc) in 2013 under Pettine. In fact, Rex's defense gave up almost 2 points less per game (22.4) this year compared to Pettine in 2013 (24.2).

 

Unless you're truly an elite defensive unit, defensive standings/rankings are fluid from year to year. This year we saw that regression with the Bills. Regroup, add some new blood in key spots (LB/DE) and perhaps we can have a bounce-back year next year on defense. Above all, remaining healthy in 2016 is key.

 

Lets see what Rex can do in yr two. Many of us (including myself) viewed this year as a failure in large part due to the way the defense performed. However, part of the reason we feel so down on the defense may be because our expectations were simply too high for this defense.

Guys got hurt and didn't live up to previous stats, because they were running a system from 1985 that doesn't fit their skill set