2016 Draft LB thread

[thebandit27]

 

The big toss-up is Ragland vs Lee with this class. Ragland is the smarter, cleaner technical player. Lee is the athlete.

 

The way I look at them, there's only one clear cut 1st round pick and it's not Lee. Potential means that they have to figure it out still. I know what Reggie is and I'm comfortable with him playing the majority of snaps. I think there's a mass disconnect between what linebackers are asked to do and what people think they're asked to do.

 

It's like with Paul Dawson last year. He ran slow as **** at the Combine but he's still smarter than 19-20 guys on the field at any given point. Those smarts give him the headstart and it's the same with Ragland. Lee runs 4.47, Ragland runs 4.72. If Reggie sees the play develop 0.25 seconds faster than Lee, where's the difference in 'play speed'?

 

I think some of what you consider a disconnect may, in fact, be more a symptom of folks catching onto the transitioning role of LBs in today's pass-happy NFL.

 

We're seeing more and more teams get further away from the traditional downhill LBs in favor of the athletic guys. Coaches are starting to say "this guy can tackle a bit, but he's got the speed and COD skills that I need to keep up with TEs and backs".

 

That doesn't mean that Reggie doesn't have 3-down value in the NFL; he does. It just means that his 3-down value is trending downward (or perhaps, more accurately, trending upward less quickly) in comparison to a guy like Lee, who can turn and run with a TE like Gronk or Graham, and coaches feel he's got enough chutzpah to play downhill on the 20 snaps/game that teams run the ball.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I think some of what you consider a disconnect may, in fact, be more a symptom of folks catching onto the transitioning role of LBs in today's pass-happy NFL.

 

We're seeing more and more teams get further away from the traditional downhill LBs in favor of the athletic guys. Coaches are starting to say "this guy can tackle a bit, but he's got the speed and COD skills that I need to keep up with TEs and backs".

 

That doesn't mean that Reggie doesn't have 3-down value in the NFL; he does. It just means that his 3-down value is trending downward (or perhaps, more accurately, trending upward less quickly) in comparison to a guy like Lee, who can turn and run with a TE like Gronk or Graham, and coaches feel he's got enough chutzpah to play downhill on the 20 snaps/game that teams run the ball.

Thats kind of where I am at. The league is going to Mark Barron's & Deone Bucannon's not towards Brandon Spikes'. Offenses have forced this. They have exposed those guys in coverage and played fast to force them to stay on the field. We all would cringe when Spikes was forced into coverage.

[26CornerBlitz]

@RyanTalbotBills

Report: Florida Gators LB Antonio Morrison will make a pre-draft visit with the Bills http://www.scout.com/nfl/bills/story/1657024-report-ilb-antonio-morrison-to-visit-bills

@ChrisTrapasso

Antonio Morrison is undersized but plays like his hair is on fire. And he's awesome @ what, IMO, is most important for LBs: defeating blocks

[thebandit27]

Thats kind of where I am at. The league is going to Mark Barron's & Deone Bucannon's not towards Brandon Spikes'. Offenses have forced this. They have exposed those guys in coverage and played fast to force them to stay on the field. We all would cringe when Spikes was forced into coverage.

 

Yep...you've seen it all over; guys like Kwon Alexander, Lavonte David, Danny Trevathan, etc.

 

It's no wonder that more teams are going to 3-man fronts with size to protect the smaller 'backers

[LeGOATski]

I see a lot of generalized talk about athletic LBs, but what do the Bills need, specifically? Are they not desperate for a typical MLB (and leader) who can stuff the run? Doesn't Rex most often use the low safety or SLB to cover a TE?

 

Rex says the best way to change the momentum of a game is a big hit. Welcome to Buffalo, Reggie.

[YoloinOhio]

I see a lot of generalized talk about athletic LBs, but what do the Bills need, specifically? Are they not desperate for a typical MLB (and leader) who can stuff the run? Doesn't Rex most often use the low safety or SLB to cover a TE?

 

Rex says the best way to change the momentum of a game is a big hit. Welcome to Buffalo, Reggie.

or Antonio Morrison in the 4th, and a versatile, fast LB who can cover in the 1st.

 

If it's true how much love they have for Myles Jack, that means they want him or someone as close to him as possible. That is Lee. He isn't Jack, but he's the same "style" of player. Cravens would be another option, but he's slower.

 

It's not hard to find a LB who can stop the run and lay a big hit. It is hard to find a LB who can run a 4.4 and cover the slot or get home on a blitz before the QB gets the ball out. I think we need both types of lBs, but only one will be there later.

Edited April 1, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[thebandit27]

I see a lot of generalized talk about athletic LBs, but what do the Bills need, specifically? Are they not desperate for a typical MLB (and leader) who can stuff the run? Doesn't Rex most often use the low safety or SLB to cover a TE?

 

Rex says the best way to change the momentum of a game is a big hit. Welcome to Buffalo, Reggie.

 

The Bills had 2 physical, run-oriented LBs last year (Bradham and Brown), and both regressed significantly from 2014. Obviously Bradham is gone, and they seem to be ready to move forward with Brown as the Mike (downhill run plugger as the primary post-snap responsibility) in the hopes that he improves with another offseason in Rex's system.

 

What they don't have is an ILB that can make tackles when the DLmen keep the box clean, and also mirror TEs in the passing game (typical responsibilities of the Will 'backer in a 3-4). As some folks observed, Lawson is the closest to matching that description, but he's also the only guy that has the right combination of length, speed, and athleticism to play the Sam the way Rex likes.

 

Rex likes to use the Will to cover backs & TEs, as evidenced by how often we saw Nigel Bradham singled up last year. Getting an athletic, cover-first LB would really give the back 7 flexibility and help in disguising coverages and pressure packages.

or Antonio Morrison in the 4th, and a versatile, fast LB who can cover in the 1st.

 

If it's true how much love they have for Myles Jack, that means they want him or someone as close to him as possible. That is Lee. He isn't Jack, but he's the same "style" of player. Cravens would be another option.

 

I know they're in win-now mode, but if they want someone close to Jack, they probably ought to take what they can get for a trade-down, accumulate another day 2 pick, and grab Jaylon Smith with their 1st pick. He's the only guy even close to Jack from this draft.

 

Now, be sure to take my opinion in context--I'm the guy that already called his shot on Jack (that he'll be on par with, or even better than, Kuechly)

[LeGOATski]

or Antonio Morrison in the 4th, and a versatile, fast LB who can cover in the 1st.

 

If it's true how much love they have for Myles Jack, that means they want him or someone as close to him as possible. That is Lee. He isn't Jack, but he's the same "style" of player. Cravens would be another option.

If they do go that route, I'd rather they get Alexander. As far as I know, he doesn't have the attitude issues that Morrison has.

 

Lee definitely is no Jack. From what I've seen, he's nowhere near as aggressive against the run. I wouldn't mind Cravens at Safety/Lb.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

The Bills had 2 physical, run-oriented LBs last year (Bradham and Brown), and both regressed significantly from 2014. Obviously Bradham is gone, and they seem to be ready to move forward with Brown as the Mike (downhill run plugger as the primary post-snap responsibility) in the hopes that he improves with another offseason in Rex's system.

 

What they don't have is an ILB that can make tackles when the DLmen keep the box clean, and also mirror TEs in the passing game (typical responsibilities of the Will 'backer in a 3-4). As some folks observed, Lawson is the closest to matching that description, but he's also the only guy that has the right combination of length, speed, and athleticism to play the Sam the way Rex likes.

 

Rex likes to use the Will to cover backs & TEs, as evidenced by how often we saw Nigel Bradham singled up last year. Getting an athletic, cover-first LB would really give the back 7 flexibility and help in disguising coverages and pressure packages.

 

I know they're in win-now mode, but if they want someone close to Jack, they probably ought to take what they can get for a trade-down, accumulate another day 2 pick, and grab Jaylon Smith with their 1st pick. He's the only guy even close to Jack from this draft.

 

Now, be sure to take my opinion in context--I'm the guy that already called his shot on Jack (that he'll be on par with, or even better than, Kuechly)

 

He was pre-injury. The obvious question at hand is what will be moving forward and when can he contribute.

[YoloinOhio]

If they do go that route, I'd rather they get Alexander. As far as I know, he doesn't have the attitude issues that Morrison has.

 

Lee definitely is no Jack. From what I've seen, he's nowhere near as aggressive against the run. I wouldn't mind Cravens at Safety/Lb.

i didn't say he was Jack, obviously. I said they have the same style/ would be used similarly in this defense.

 

I wasn't advocating for Morrison specifically as much as I was advocating for that "type" of LB to be taken later vs early. It's difficult for any scouting department to lock in one specific players because they can't predict how the draft will fall. they need to identify the types of players they want and rank them so that if a guy is gone and you still want/need him for your scheme then you take your next best later. In your scenario you like Alexander better than Morrison because of off-field. If the 4th Round rolls around and Alexander is gone you have your due diligence on Morrison and take him, or if he's not your BPA you wait but he stays on your board for the 5th.

Edited April 1, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[LeGOATski]

 

The Bills had 2 physical, run-oriented LBs last year (Bradham and Brown), and both regressed significantly from 2014. Obviously Bradham is gone, and they seem to be ready to move forward with Brown as the Mike (downhill run plugger as the primary post-snap responsibility) in the hopes that he improves with another offseason in Rex's system.

 

What they don't have is an ILB that can make tackles when the DLmen keep the box clean, and also mirror TEs in the passing game (typical responsibilities of the Will 'backer in a 3-4). As some folks observed, Lawson is the closest to matching that description, but he's also the only guy that has the right combination of length, speed, and athleticism to play the Sam the way Rex likes.

 

Rex likes to use the Will to cover backs & TEs, as evidenced by how often we saw Nigel Bradham singled up last year. Getting an athletic, cover-first LB would really give the back 7 flexibility and help in disguising coverages and pressure packages.

 

This makes sense, but with the way he's talked about Brown's struggles last year, I figure he'll jump at the chance to draft a LB more suited to that role and push Brown to WLB. Brown is very athletic. Posted almost identical combine numbers to Kiko.

[3rdand12]

I have thought they need two linebackers out of this draft. I do not mind if the second one picked is more of thumper and is only a rotational guy.

Like I think they need a NT much like Bandits D J Reader.

Yolo i agree about looking at the "type" of LB they need and going from there.

But i am just gaining my opinion from others here who get me looking deeper into these prospects. I do not watch college ball at all.

That is what i have you guys for

: )

[thebandit27]

This makes sense, but with the way he's talked about Brown's struggles last year, I figure he'll jump at the chance to draft a LB more suited to that role and push Brown to WLB. Brown is very athletic. Posted almost identical combine numbers to Kiko.

 

I don't think Brown is athletic enough to play the Will.

 

His movement #s from the combine weren't all that close to what Kiko did at his pro day (he didn't do drills at the combine):

 

Kiko's 40 was 4.74; Brown's was 4.86

Kiko's 20s was 4.18; Brown's was 4.26

 

Their 3-cones were close (6.98 for Brown vs. 6.96 for Kiko), but that's about it as far as movement. Brown has better explosion, but there's no question that Kiko is a more fluid athlete moving sideways and backwards.

[thebandit27]

I'm liking what I see from Stephen Weatherly of Vanderbilt as a possible day 3 EDGE guy.

 

Looks twitchy, tough, aggressive. His eye discipline stinks, and he needs to wrap up better in the backfield, but there's something to him.

[LeGOATski]

 

I don't think Brown is athletic enough to play the Will.

 

His movement #s from the combine weren't all that close to what Kiko did at his pro day (he didn't do drills at the combine):

 

Kiko's 40 was 4.74; Brown's was 4.86

Kiko's 20s was 4.18; Brown's was 4.26

 

Their 3-cones were close (6.98 for Brown vs. 6.96 for Kiko), but that's about it as far as movement. Brown has better explosion, but there's no question that Kiko is a more fluid athlete moving sideways and backwards.

Looks athletic enough to me. Darron Lee posted a 4.20 and 7.12 in those agility drills.

[CommonCents]

Looks athletic enough to me. Darron Lee posted a 4.20 and 7.12 in those agility drills.

Darron Lee is a great athlete not a great football player. Anyone that hasn't should watch him in coverage and also watch him try and tackle. If the front office wants a joker backer I would prefer them going after Cravens who is much cleaner in coverage and has ball skills that rival any other potential prospects. He also gets home on blitzes, when he doesn't come clean he still forces penetration and gets upfield.

 

I think part of the fascination with the joker backers is fan and media hype over the changes to the game. The guys have serious value but they are few and far between and the majority of the time your reaching unless your picking in the top 5. The Bills could easily select an in the box safety like Jeremy Cash who could be had in the third round. This would open the early rounds up to BPA and avoid reaching for an athlete like Lee.

 

Then you could do something like this...

 

1st round - Spence, Ogbah, Nkemdiche

2nd round- Cravens, Butler, Jones

3rd round - Cash(if Cravens was gone) BPA

 

That looks a lot better to me than Lee in the first and missing out on an elite edge rusher. Rex is getting paid the big bucks for the defense, he should be able to incorporate a guy like Cash.

[Blokestradamus]

 

I think some of what you consider a disconnect may, in fact, be more a symptom of folks catching onto the transitioning role of LBs in today's pass-happy NFL.

 

We're seeing more and more teams get further away from the traditional downhill LBs in favor of the athletic guys. Coaches are starting to say "this guy can tackle a bit, but he's got the speed and COD skills that I need to keep up with TEs and backs".

 

That doesn't mean that Reggie doesn't have 3-down value in the NFL; he does. It just means that his 3-down value is trending downward (or perhaps, more accurately, trending upward less quickly) in comparison to a guy like Lee, who can turn and run with a TE like Gronk or Graham, and coaches feel he's got enough chutzpah to play downhill on the 20 snaps/game that teams run the ball.

 

I'm aware of the trends but I don't think that it's always the right way to do things. Bill Belichick just got himself another decent blocking TE and we're starting to worry about the pass more? Bill is gonna change the game (yet again).

 

The bigger part of my frustration is that you're not asking linebackers to perform multiple moves. Smart players can read a route as its being run and adjust accordingly, smart players can notice trends in film prep and know what's likely coming. The best coverage linebackers aren't just athletic, they also have really high football IQ's. Last year, my top coverage LB was Eric Kendricks and he ran a 4.61 in Indy. Enough straight line speed that got combined with incredible play speed.

 

For the most part, the biggest mismatches on a football field are mental and not physical. Smart players should never go out of fashion. If the league wants a guy like Ragland to drop to the 2nd and I can get a stud in the 1st too, that's fine with me. When they start putting Deion Jones and Eric Striker at LB and constantly get gashed up the middle for 5-6 yards, I'll have a quiet chuckle to myself. Just because the NFL does it, doesn't make it either right or smart.

Edited April 2, 2016 by Blokestradamus

[Coach Tuesday]

Darron Lee is a great athlete not a great football player. Anyone that hasn't should watch him in coverage and also watch him try and tackle. If the front office wants a joker backer I would prefer them going after Cravens who is much cleaner in coverage and has ball skills that rival any other potential prospects. He also gets home on blitzes, when he doesn't come clean he still forces penetration and gets upfield.

 

I think part of the fascination with the joker backers is fan and media hype over the changes to the game. The guys have serious value but they are few and far between and the majority of the time your reaching unless your picking in the top 5. The Bills could easily select an in the box safety like Jeremy Cash who could be had in the third round. This would open the early rounds up to BPA and avoid reaching for an athlete like Lee.

 

Then you could do something like this...

 

1st round - Spence, Ogbah, Nkemdiche

2nd round- Cravens, Butler, Jones

3rd round - Cash(if Cravens was gone) BPA

 

That looks a lot better to me than Lee in the first and missing out on an elite edge rusher. Rex is getting paid the big bucks for the defense, he should be able to incorporate a guy like Cash.

 

 

I'm aware of the trends but I don't think that it's always the right way to do things. Bill Belichick just got himself another decent blocking TE and we're starting to worry about the pass more? Bill is gonna change the game (yet again).

 

The bigger part of my frustration is that you're not asking linebackers to perform multiple moves. Smart players can read a route as its being run and adjust accordingly, smart players can notice trends in film prep and know what's likely coming. The best coverage linebackers aren't just athletic, they also have really high football IQ's. Last year, my top coverage LB was Eric Kendricks and he ran a 4.61 in Indy. Enough straight line speed that got combined with incredible play speed.

 

For the most part, the biggest mismatches on a football field are mental and not physical. Smart players should never go out of fashion. If the league wants a guy like Ragland to drop to the 2nd and I can get a stud in the 1st too, that's fine with me. When they start putting Deion Jones and Eric Striker at LB and constantly get gashed up the middle for 5-6 yards, I'll have a quiet chuckle to myself. Just because the NFL does it, doesn't make it either right or smart.

 

Reading these two great posts in tandem, they mirror my concerns. All of this media babble about Lee being the "new NFL linebacker" because he's fast - Lee is not a great football player, and as Bloke points out, the game is constantly changing. The Patriots beefed up their interior line and tight end group and are going to be running more of a power-based attack to protect Brady as he enters the twilight of his career. If we draft Lee, maybe he can match up against Martellus Bennett in terms of coverage (although his zone coverage skills are pretty poor), but he'll do nothing to stop a power running offense and I doubt he makes much of an impact in Year One anyhow, given his poor tackling and awareness.

[thebandit27]

 

I'm aware of the trends but I don't think that it's always the right way to do things. Bill Belichick just got himself another decent blocking TE and we're starting to worry about the pass more? Bill is gonna change the game (yet again).

 

The bigger part of my frustration is that you're not asking linebackers to perform multiple moves. Smart players can read a route as its being run and adjust accordingly, smart players can notice trends in film prep and know what's likely coming. The best coverage linebackers aren't just athletic, they also have really high football IQ's. Last year, my top coverage LB was Eric Kendricks and he ran a 4.61 in Indy. Enough straight line speed that got combined with incredible play speed.

 

For the most part, the biggest mismatches on a football field are mental and not physical. Smart players should never go out of fashion. If the league wants a guy like Ragland to drop to the 2nd and I can get a stud in the 1st too, that's fine with me. When they start putting Deion Jones and Eric Striker at LB and constantly get gashed up the middle for 5-6 yards, I'll have a quiet chuckle to myself. Just because the NFL does it, doesn't make it either right or smart.

Two thoughts come to mind:

 

1) coaches have to optimize between coverage ability and traditional downhill play. I agree that it's not about simply finding he best cover man.

 

2) a lot of the discussion centers around sub packages etc. There will always be a spot for the bigger downhill players; the current game also happens to be developing a role for the smaller cover guys as well

[Kirby Jackson]

Two thoughts come to mind:

 

1) coaches have to optimize between coverage ability and traditional downhill play. I agree that it's not about simply finding he best cover man.

 

2) a lot of the discussion centers around sub packages etc. There will always be a spot for the bigger downhill players; the current game also happens to be developing a role for the smaller cover guys as well

The way that I look at it (specific to Lee vs. Ragland) there are more snaps a game (and more game altering plays) that favor Lee's skill set. Personally, I want pass rush in the 1st but I'd like a LB that can cover more than a run stuffer.