2016 Draft O-line thread

[metzelaars_lives]

I don't know if the Bills line is below average, average, above average. I do know that, like many things, it could be better.

 

I was at the Ralph the day we played the Giants. Lesean McCoy didn't play, and Karlos Williams carried it 18 times to the tune of 40 yards rushing and 2.2 per carry. I watched our offensive front get blown off the line of scrimmage repeatedly for 60 minutes by a defense that finished #32 in ypg. At some point a thought occurred...if we had come into that game loaded with Brandon Moore and Nick Mangold from their prime, might we have scored more than 10 points? Not something we could have realistically achieved of course. But in building our team moving forward...?

 

Roman's passion is in finding creative ways to run the ball. We do it all, inside, outside, zone, power, etc. He is somewhat less creative in the passing game. However the Bills have a tradition of great rushing offenses that goes back a very long time, and we had that again when McCoy was on the field this year. It can't be overstated. Our philosophy is to use our varied formations and blocking schemes to run the ball the very most that gaining first downs will allow us to run it, and minimize passing attempts. 15-20 passes seems to be where that lands us on a good day.

 

In and of itself, all this is fine. Tyrod is talented and smart but still has his limitations. Sometimes it seems as if he'll go a half of a game without once dropping back 1-2-3 and releasing on time. He's pretty good all things considered though, and we hope he can develop. But even if Tyrod can't do that and we have to move on, the next guy in line is not going to be Joe Montana. He's going to have his own set of limitations, and our strategy to compensate for those limitations will be the run-heavy philosophy above.

 

I ask you. If we're going to try to win games by running the ball about as much as anyone...with as complex a run game as anyone...and of course we want to be one of the BEST teams...does it not stand to reason that we should get as close to the best offensive line in football as we possibly can?

 

Rex had his success as a head coach, Roman as a coordinator not with a maybe-above-average offensive line. They lined up and drove people back from the point of attack week in and week out. I think we should work toward making the right side of our line as good as the left side, and try to find a gem of a center to draft too.

 

Urbik isn't a 'bad' player. I'd bet he could start for more than half the teams in the league at one of his three positions. But he could not start for either of those lines in my estimation. And since that time, it's only gotten more difficult to win games by running the ball.

I'm sorry you went to the Giants game but are you aware that the Bills finished the season #1 in the NFL in total yards rushing AND yards per carry?

[Coach Tuesday]

I'm sorry you went to the Giants game but are you aware that the Bills finished the season #1 in the NFL in total yards rushing AND yards per carry?

 

Honest question, what happens if you take Tyrod's runs out of that equation?

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

 

I'm sorry you went to the Giants game but are you aware that the Bills finished the season #1 in the NFL in total yards rushing AND yards per carry?

Yet we're not W I N N I N G.

 

Maybe being 19th in third down percentage had something to do with that?

 

Roman can deliver a championship calibre offense if you give him the hogs up front. He can use a great line to dominate and exhaust his opponent like nobody else in pro football. This past season's starting center, RG and RT have never been outstanding run blockers. With a coordinator like Roman this will inevitably have an impact on wins and losses.

Edited January 16, 2016 by Aaron

[GunnerBill]

This past season's starting center, RG and RT have never been outstanding run blockers

Eric Wood is not an outstanding run blocker he is average I will give you that - very good when out in space pulling not so good when he just has to get downhill and drive defenders back but he had a big bounce back year.

 

As for Miller he might not be an outstanding run blocker yet but he is pretty darn good for a rookie. Any question marks against Miller should not be levelled at his play in the run game.

 

As for 3rd down percentage - whilst I am not quite as bullish about this line as Metz... I do think it took a huge step forward on 2014... and our third down percentage is not on them so much as a myriad of factors - I'd say Tyrod's inability to make quick decisive reads is the top reason and not having a bona fide #2 receiver and Roman's reluctance to use the middle of the field in his play calls are other reasons too.

Edited January 16, 2016 by GunnerBill

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Eric Wood is not an outstanding run blocker he is average I will give you that - very good when out in space pulling not so good when he just has to get downhill and drive defenders back but he had a big bounce back year.

 

As for Miller he might not be an outstanding run blocker yet but he is pretty darn good for a rookie. Any question marks against Miller should not be levelled at his play in the run game.

 

As for 3rd down percentage - whilst I am not quite as bullish about this line as Metz... I do think it took a huge step forward on 2014... and our third down percentage is not on them so much as a myriad of factors - I'd say Tyrod's inability to make quick decisive reads is the top reason and not having a bona fide #2 receiver and Roman's reluctance to use the middle of the field in his play calls are other reasons too.

I remember reading All-22 recaps early in the season that showed Tyrod failed to see and throw the ball to receivers in the middle of the field, compared to the work he'd do on the boundaries. How much of that deficiency is Roman vs Tyrod I do not know, but just as Taylor taketh away, so too does he giveth. How many third downs did he pick up with a scramble or after buying time? Surely a number of third and longs we were unlikely to gain otherwise.

 

I tried but failed to find the numbers particularly on third and short...that was where we seemed to have the most struggles by my recollection and it's more directly tied to OL play. Even total third downs though, I have to think if you were to plug in road graders at those three O-line positions, a guy like Roman would do appreciably better than 19th. Do you think Wood and Urbik being less than ideal fits as drive blockers may have had an effect?

 

I believe Urbik played more this year than Miller? I was referencing #60, as Miller's pass pro kept him off the field for us at times, and I was talking about how different linemen could have made us better in '15. But JM looks like a good prospect to me and is the type of lineman I think this coaching staff will target more going forward. Whether he's ready to replace Urbik and make our line more imposing as soon as 2016 is up in the air, but I'm good with wait and see there.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

 

I think the first half of the year they played just below average the second half of the year they were above average. They are one of the best run blocking lines in the league, especially pulling to create lanes to get Shady outside. The pass blocking was less consistent and is probably right about middle of the league. That is partly because Miller really struggled at times in pass protection in comparison to his excellent play in the run game. I think he will improve in year 2 - we knew what we were getting in Miller coming out and it was a good run blocker who needed polish in the passing game. Right tackle could stand to be upgraded. I think it is arguably the weakest starting spot on the team. However, I'd still be wary about going there in the first. For me if it isn't a Quarterback the first round pick should be an impact maker on defense.... I'm fine with drafting an OT but for me it is a need for rounds 3-4.

 

EDIT: Whilst I am no fan of Urbik particularly I wouldn't go Guard or Centre in this draft. I look around the league and as a backup swing interior man Urbik is one of the better ones. Take a flier on a couple of UFDA's in those spots, sure, but don't use a pick on them.

 

I'm not talking about drafting a center for the sole purpose of upgrading the backup spot on the depth chart, of course. I fully agree Urbik is a strong backup who likely would start on a number of teams. However, he's not an ideal fit as a starting center in an offense like this.

 

Genuine question GB, how much longer do you expect Eric Wood to be the starting center of this team? He profiles perfectly to mentor a young player. Center is a position that typically requires a year or two or three before you get high-level play from a draftee. I think the time is now to hunt for a true power run center, while we still know Wood has a year or two left in Buffalo.

 

The OL is the lifeblood of the offense now, I say handle it with care.

[GunnerBill]

Miller played more than Urbik and Miller wasn't kept off the field by pass protection issues he was kept off the field by injury.

 

As for Wood - if we didn't have some other genuine holes on the team I'd be in favour of taking a centre to groom. However, we have to retool a defense to suit our Head Coach and so we don't have that luxury - it will have to wait until next year. I expect Wood to be here for at least another couple of seasons if the bounce back of this year is repeated next year.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Miller played more than Urbik and Miller wasn't kept off the field by pass protection issues he was kept off the field by injury.

 

As for Wood - if we didn't have some other genuine holes on the team I'd be in favour of taking a centre to groom. However, we have to retool a defense to suit our Head Coach and so we don't have that luxury - it will have to wait until next year. I expect Wood to be here for at least another couple of seasons if the bounce back of this year is repeated next year.

Yeah RT is also a much more dire need.

 

We're likely about to pay Tyrod 15-20 million per season, which will also have an impact on the defense. Wood makes over 6 million, has 2 years on his deal and isn't an ideal fit for what we do. It's when Roman has a drive blocking O-line that he's at his most dangerous.

 

Well worth considering in the middle rounds, where you're highly unlikely to net a day one defensive starter anyway.

I'll hang up and listen so we can eventually get back to bandit giving us the skinny.

[Bill from NYC]

As for Wood - if we didn't have some other genuine holes on the team I'd be in favour of taking a centre to groom. However, we have to retool a defense to suit our Head Coach and so we don't have that luxury - it will have to wait until next year. I expect Wood to be here for at least another couple of seasons if the bounce back of this year is repeated next year.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1893142/ryan-kelly

[GunnerBill]

Yeah RT is also a much more dire need.

 

We're likely about to pay Tyrod 15-20 million per season, which will also have an impact on the defense. Wood makes over 6 million, has 2 years on his deal and isn't an ideal fit for what we do. It's when Roman has a drive blocking O-line that he's at his most dangerous.

 

Well worth considering in the middle rounds, where you're highly unlikely to net a day one defensive starter anyway.

I'll hang up and listen so we can eventually get back to bandit giving us the skinny.

 

Yes and I think they should definitely take an OT by round 4 at the latest. As for Wood not being a fit for what we do..... Roman does a bit of everything in the run game it is why he always gets productions. He does a bit of zone blocking, trap blocking, pulling, drive blocking... vanilla man blocking.... he does it all. Wood is better at some bits than others and his deal is probably a bit on the large side.... but I still can't see centre as a big need this offseason. If one drops and the Bills have him in the top couple of players left on their board then sure, take one.... but it shouldn't be a position they target at the expense of others for me.

[26CornerBlitz]

@MikeMayock

Draft season people ! Day 1 at EW Shrine practice- east team- mich center G.Glasgow looks like a starting NFL Center..6'6 310- moves well

[Astrobot]

I just did an analysis of LTs and RTs in DraftTek's top 100, looking at how far each Tackle would hypothetically fall if they moved to the opposite tackle side.

 

Tunsil---Current slot as LT: 3, 43 as RT

Stanley---Current slot as LT:6, 14 as RT (most versatile LT as swing OT)

Decker---Current slot as LT: 15, 95 as RT

Hawkins---Current slot as LT: 32, 80 as RT

Conklin---Current slot as LT: 37, 58 as RT (best value as swing OT)

Spriggs---Current slot as LT: 45, 153 as RT

Theus---Current slot as LT: 63, 149 as RT

Murphy---Current slot as LT: 66, no value as RT

Johnstone---Current slot as LT: 82, no value as RT

 

What about RTs?

Marz---Current slot as RT: 60, 276 as LT

Shell---Current slot as RT: 89, 157 as LT (most versatile RT as swing OT)

 

Stanley will be gone in RD1 before our pick. Conklin is our 5th-rated OT and holds the most value as a swing tackle. Shell is a RT who could swing to LT in a pinch. Marz still might be considered if he drops to Day 3, as far fewer teams are looking for a RT than LT.

[Blokestradamus]

I find the disparity in value between LT and RT to be a little confusing these days (not a personal attack Astro, I promise). You can't hide an iffy pass protector at RT anymore. Pressure comes from everywhere. I respect the value of the blindside protection but I think it's time people viewed every OL spot as a specialist skill set. No more "if he can't play LT, put him at RT. If he can't play there, stick him at guard" nonsense.

 

It's a strict case-by-case basis of what a guy does best. If he's versatile, all the better. Take Stephane Nembot from Colorado. I was watching him a few days ago and he was a bit meh playing RT, workable but still meh. He switched to LT for the USC game and looked a different player entirely. Plenty of cases over the past couple of years has lead me to believe that the distinction between LT & RT isn't so much their skill set but their movement skills in a certain direction. Most guys are inherently better moving one direction over the other.

 

I guess I'm saying that I don't believe that LT is quite the premium position I originally thought it was. The value is in the player, not the position.

[Bill from NYC]

I find the disparity in value between LT and RT to be a little confusing these days (not a personal attack Astro, I promise). You can't hide an iffy pass protector at RT anymore. Pressure comes from everywhere. I respect the value of the blindside protection but I think it's time people viewed every OL spot as a specialist skill set. No more "if he can't play LT, put him at RT. If he can't play there, stick him at guard" nonsense.

 

It's a strict case-by-case basis of what a guy does best. If he's versatile, all the better. Take Stephane Nembot from Colorado. I was watching him a few days ago and he was a bit meh playing RT, workable but still meh. He switched to LT for the USC game and looked a different player entirely. Plenty of cases over the past couple of years has lead me to believe that the distinction between LT & RT isn't so much their skill set but their movement skills in a certain direction. Most guys are inherently better moving one direction over the other.

 

I guess I'm saying that I don't believe that LT is quite the premium position I originally thought it was. The value is in the player, not the position.

Very good post!

 

I also think that since the rule changes, the RT position grew in importance. The LT will always require a bit more agility because it IS the blind side, but I completely agree that an NFL team cannot afford to put someone there who is strong but cannot move.

[GunnerBill]

I find the disparity in value between LT and RT to be a little confusing these days (not a personal attack Astro, I promise). You can't hide an iffy pass protector at RT anymore. Pressure comes from everywhere. I respect the value of the blindside protection but I think it's time people viewed every OL spot as a specialist skill set. No more "if he can't play LT, put him at RT. If he can't play there, stick him at guard" nonsense.

 

It's a strict case-by-case basis of what a guy does best. If he's versatile, all the better. Take Stephane Nembot from Colorado. I was watching him a few days ago and he was a bit meh playing RT, workable but still meh. He switched to LT for the USC game and looked a different player entirely. Plenty of cases over the past couple of years has lead me to believe that the distinction between LT & RT isn't so much their skill set but their movement skills in a certain direction. Most guys are inherently better moving one direction over the other.

 

I guess I'm saying that I don't believe that LT is quite the premium position I originally thought it was. The value is in the player, not the position.

 

I think there is a lot of truth in this. I do find myself wondering whether Seantrel Henderson is a bit in this category. His breakout "pre-season" a couple of years ago came at left tackle and actually the moment when Rex claimed he "elevated" himself in the RT competition last offseason was when Glenn wasn't there for a few days and he moved to the left again. He just looks more natural on that side. I don't know that I see anything "technical" as such.... it is just an impression of comfort he has with the movements at left tackle.

[RyanC883]

stop stop stop with the re-tooling the line every year- we need a group to grow and work together- injuries hurt them this year but they were better than many teams when healthy- we need receivers and linebackers-

 

I'd like a guy (2nd or 3rd round) who can play multiple positions; Center, Guard and/or Tackle. We need a guy who can step in and start if injuries hit and replace Urbik. Who in the draft class fits this criteria? Astrobot?!?!?

[YoloinOhio]

No Taylor Decker at the Senior Bowl

[Blokestradamus]

Consider me sold on the idea of Taylor Decker at 19. Undoubtedly my #2 tackle and he's not far behind Laremy Tunsil in my grades.

 

I think he would be an instant upgrade at RT and Glenn's status is still in limbo at this point. I'd feel comfortable with him playing either tackle spot.

 

He's not a sexy player, I think that's why some are unsure of him. He's not Greg Robinson bowling some guy across the field blocking a screen. Just really solid all around game. Length and feet are very impressive in pass pro. Nasty in the run game, can execute at the 2nd level well. Don't see a glaring weakness in his game.

Edited January 23, 2016 by Blokestradamus

[thebandit27]

Consider me sold on the idea of Taylor Decker at 19. Undoubtedly my #2 tackle and he's not far behind Laremy Tunsil in my grades.

 

I think he would be an instant upgrade at RT and Glenn's status is still in limbo at this point. I'd feel comfortable with him playing either tackle spot.

 

He's not a sexy player, I think that's why some are unsure of him. He's not Greg Robinson bowling some guy across the field blocking a screen. Just really solid all around game. Length and feet are very impressive in pass pro. Nasty in the run game, can execute at the 2nd level well. Don't see a glaring weakness in his game.

I'd be okay with Decker at RT--I'm not as high on him as you seem to be, Blokes.

 

He seems to let defenders get inside his grasp and doesn't get full extension as often as I'd like to see. I may elevate him if his strength-length ratio turns out to be solid, because physically there's a lot to like.

[Pete]

We probably need 3 new starters on defense. So I agree RT is a big need. I just feel that we need much, much more help on defense. It does seem to me that Conklin is rising on many boards too. He seems to be selected before Decker many times