The Doug Whaley positives are taking huge hits.

[Go Kiko go]

So over 3 drafts, we have 4 good players. All other promising prospects have either busted or are still unproductive and unsafe. And this is the guy whose job is safe?

 

This post isn't very meaningful without a comparison to the performance of the other NFL GMs over the same time period.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Karlos' concussions are Whaley's fault?

[GunnerBill]

I just don't buy the argument I'm sorry.

 

EJ - bust

Woods - looks as though he has stood still or even regressed slightly this year but a decent player

Kiko - Becomes Shady McCoy

Goodwin - Bust

Duke - Going to say bust but he was actually progressing ok at the back end of last year in Schwartz's defense - not a man cover safety which Rex's scheme has asked him to be too often.

Meeks - only played special teams so have to say bust

Hopkins - Won the job in his first camp then got injured before a game was played and was beaten out by Carpenter who had two excellent years here

Gragg - been a marginal contributor for 3 years but reasonable value from a 7th round pick

 

Watkins - Outstanding football player

Kouandjio - Bust

Brown - Good football player - don't put any of his struggles this year on Whaley - dude flat out balled last year in the system he was drafted for.

Cockrell - Have to say bust for the Bills but he is a solid player in a different scheme

Richardson - Bust

Johnson - solid special teams contributor

Henderson - Is a backup player in reality at the NFL level

 

Darby - Excellent pick

Miller - to say he stinks is way off. He has had an up and down rookie year but go look at the stats on how often the Bills 1st ranked running offense has run behind John Miller. Has a lot of work still to do in his pass protection but a solid pick who will only get better.

Karlos Williams - excellent value pick

Tony Steward - spent a lot of the year on IR - incomplete

Nick O'Leary - Incomplete

Dez Lewis - Incomplete

 

 

Out of 21 total picks in 3 years (and it should be said that whilst the 2013 draft had Whaley's prints on it his guys were not yet heading up the personnel department) I make that:

 

4 outstanding picks (Watkins, Darby, Karlos and Kiko that becomes Shady);

3 solid NFL calibre starters (Woods, Brown and Miller);

3 backup calibre / special teams guys (Gragg, Henderson and Johnson);

3 incompletes (Steward, O'Leary and Lewis); and

1 genuine can't be helped excuse (Hopkins).

 

That leaves 7 busts.... of those there is no doubt that the swing and miss for EJ hurts us but the mismanagement of that position prior to that draft is not on Whaley... CK hurts and Goodwin too. And that is just his drafting.... look at the other players he has found in trades or free agency... obviously headlined by Hughes, but Incognito, Wynn, Bryant, Rambo, Graham, Spikes last year... there is a lot of good Doug Whaley has done.

 

That said this is a big draft and FA period for him. He has a lot of work on to try and transform the expensive defensive side of this roster into what Rex wants. I am not giving Whaley a pass for evermore... but I think he has done a B/B- job with this team so far and he deserves to keep his job at this stage.

[Rico]

I just don't buy the argument I'm sorry.

 

EJ - bust

Woods - looks as though he has stood still or even regressed slightly this year but a decent player

Kiko - Becomes Shady McCoy

Goodwin - Bust

Duke - Going to say bust but he was actually progressing ok at the back end of last year in Schwartz's defense - not a man cover safety which Rex's scheme has asked him to be too often.

Meeks - only played special teams so have to say bust

Hopkins - Won the job in his first camp then got injured before a game was played and was beaten out by Carpenter who had two excellent years here

Gragg - been a marginal contributor for 3 years but reasonable value from a 7th round pick

 

Watkins - Outstanding football player

Kouandjio - Bust

Brown - Good football player - don't put any of his struggles this year on Whaley - dude flat out balled last year in the system he was drafted for.

Cockrell - Have to say bust for the Bills but he is a solid player in a different scheme

Richardson - Bust

Johnson - solid special teams contributor

Henderson - Is a backup player in reality at the NFL level

 

Darby - Excellent pick

Miller - to say he stinks is way off. He has had an up and down rookie year but go look at the stats on how often the Bills 1st ranked running offense has run behind John Miller. Has a lot of work still to do in his pass protection but a solid pick who will only get better.

Karlos Williams - excellent value pick

Tony Steward - spent a lot of the year on IR - incomplete

Nick O'Leary - Incomplete

Dez Lewis - Incomplete

 

 

Out of 21 total picks in 3 years (and it should be said that whilst the 2013 draft had Whaley's prints on it his guys were not yet heading up the personnel department) I make that:

 

4 outstanding picks (Watkins, Darby, Karlos and Kiko that becomes Shady);

3 solid NFL calibre starters (Woods, Brown and Miller);

3 backup calibre / special teams guys (Gragg, Henderson and Johnson);

3 incompletes (Steward, O'Leary and Lewis); and

1 genuine can't be helped excuse (Hopkins).

 

That leaves 7 busts.... of those there is no doubt that the swing and miss for EJ hurts us but the mismanagement of that position prior to that draft is not on Whaley... CK hurts and Goodwin too. And that is just his drafting.... look at the other players he has found in trades or free agency... obviously headlined by Hughes, but Incognito, Wynn, Bryant, Rambo, Graham, Spikes last year... there is a lot of good Doug Whaley has done.

 

That said this is a big draft and FA period for him. He has a lot of work on to try and transform the expensive defensive side of this roster into what Rex wants. I am not giving Whaley a pass for evermore... but I think he has done a B/B- job with this team so far and he deserves to keep his job at this stage.

How many players from 2013 & 2014 do you think will be on this team after next year? I see Sammy and maybe Preston Brown.

How many starters? Sammy.

[John from Riverside]

I just don't buy the argument I'm sorry.

 

EJ - bust

Woods - looks as though he has stood still or even regressed slightly this year but a decent player

Kiko - Becomes Shady McCoy

Goodwin - Bust

Duke - Going to say bust but he was actually progressing ok at the back end of last year in Schwartz's defense - not a man cover safety which Rex's scheme has asked him to be too often.

Meeks - only played special teams so have to say bust

Hopkins - Won the job in his first camp then got injured before a game was played and was beaten out by Carpenter who had two excellent years here

Gragg - been a marginal contributor for 3 years but reasonable value from a 7th round pick

 

Watkins - Outstanding football player

Kouandjio - Bust

Brown - Good football player - don't put any of his struggles this year on Whaley - dude flat out balled last year in the system he was drafted for.

Cockrell - Have to say bust for the Bills but he is a solid player in a different scheme

Richardson - Bust

Johnson - solid special teams contributor

Henderson - Is a backup player in reality at the NFL level

 

Darby - Excellent pick

Miller - to say he stinks is way off. He has had an up and down rookie year but go look at the stats on how often the Bills 1st ranked running offense has run behind John Miller. Has a lot of work still to do in his pass protection but a solid pick who will only get better.

Karlos Williams - excellent value pick

Tony Steward - spent a lot of the year on IR - incomplete

Nick O'Leary - Incomplete

Dez Lewis - Incomplete

 

 

Out of 21 total picks in 3 years (and it should be said that whilst the 2013 draft had Whaley's prints on it his guys were not yet heading up the personnel department) I make that:

 

4 outstanding picks (Watkins, Darby, Karlos and Kiko that becomes Shady);

3 solid NFL calibre starters (Woods, Brown and Miller);

3 backup calibre / special teams guys (Gragg, Henderson and Johnson);

3 incompletes (Steward, O'Leary and Lewis); and

1 genuine can't be helped excuse (Hopkins).

 

That leaves 7 busts.... of those there is no doubt that the swing and miss for EJ hurts us but the mismanagement of that position prior to that draft is not on Whaley... CK hurts and Goodwin too. And that is just his drafting.... look at the other players he has found in trades or free agency... obviously headlined by Hughes, but Incognito, Wynn, Bryant, Rambo, Graham, Spikes last year... there is a lot of good Doug Whaley has done.

 

That said this is a big draft and FA period for him. He has a lot of work on to try and transform the expensive defensive side of this roster into what Rex wants. I am not giving Whaley a pass for evermore... but I think he has done a B/B- job with this team so far and he deserves to keep his job at this stage.

This is an excellent post

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Translation: Waaa. I wanted a Czar....Waaa!

Czar good. Czar fix everything. You see.

[GunnerBill]

Woods will be on this team next year and might even start depending on what they do this year. He won't make a second contract so I expect 2016 to be his last year on the Bills but then expect that pattern from here on out. Their WR money will all go on Sammy so the #2 slot will be manned by draft picks who play one contract and cheap FA pick ups.

 

Henderson - health permitting - will also be on this roster next year but not as a starter.

 

Brown will be a starter. Bradhan is a FA, Lawson is on his last legs they are not going to be able to fill 3 starting spots in one offseason.

 

There are a few of the other marginals who could stick but we will see. The point is though that those were being drafted for different schemes. You don't make life easy on your GM when he builds a top flight defense and then you allow a new coach to come in rip it apart and make some very good players look surplus to requirements.

 

I know I will be accused of falling into the "something about the Bills doesn't suck so I am going to overrate him" trap. I, however, think based on the evidence it looks more like his detractors fall into the "the Bills suck so everything connected with the Bills must suck." I think Whaley has done a solid job. Big offseason ahead for him.

Edited January 3, 2016 by GunnerBill

[Rico]

Woods will be on this team next year and might even start depending on what they do this year. He won't make a second contract so I expect 2016 to be his last year on the Bills but then expect that pattern from here on out. Their WR money will all go on Sammy so the #2 slot will be manned by draft picks who play one contract and cheap FA pick ups.

 

Henderson - health permitting - will also be on this roster next year but not as a starter.

 

Brown will be a starter. Bradhan is a FA, Lawson is on his last legs they are not going to be able to fill 3 starting spots in one offseason.

 

There are a few of the other marginals who could stick but we will see. The point is though that those were being drafted for different schemes. You don't make life easy on your GM when he builds a top flight defense and then you allow a new coach to come in rip it apart and make some very good players look surplus to requirements.

 

I know I will be accused of falling into the "something about the Bills doesn't suck so I am going to overrate him" trap. I, however, think based on the evidence it looks more like his detractors fall into the "the Bills suck so everything connected with the Bills must suck." I think Whaley has done a solid job. Big offseason ahead for him.

That may be true for Preston Brown (ie. being better than he's looked this year), but he's the only one I can give you.

 

We'll all know for sure on these drafts a few years from now.

Edited January 3, 2016 by Rico

[GunnerBill]

That may be true for Preston Brown (ie. being better than he's looked this year), but he's the only one I can give you.

 

We'll all know for sure on these drafts a few years from now.

Cockrell is another and whilst Duke was probably drafted for a similar scheme - Pettine's he was not being horribly exposed every week in Schwartz's scheme... save for the failed experiment of him on Gronk.

 

EDIT: I should say I do see where the anti-Whaley crew are coming from I just see the evaluations on some players differently and the overall balance differently. I think people sometimes think you have to have 3 all-pros with your first 3 draft picks every year and the reality is NFL teams average 2/3 starters per draft. My evaluation he has 7 picks that delivered that so he is right about on the average as a drafter and some of his non flashy trades and FA pick ups have been A grade work.

Edited January 3, 2016 by GunnerBill

[3rdand12]

Cockrell is another and whilst Duke was probably drafted for a similar scheme - Pettine's he was not being horribly exposed every week in Schwartz's scheme... save for the failed experiment of him on Gronk.

 

EDIT: I should say I do see where the anti-Whaley crew are coming from I just see the evaluations on some players differently and the overall balance differently. I think people sometimes think you have to have 3 all-pros with your first 3 draft picks every year and the reality is NFL teams average 2/3 starters per draft. My evaluation he has 7 picks that delivered that so he is right about on the average as a drafter and some of his non flashy trades and FA pick ups have been A grade work.

A nice series of posts Bill. Thanks

[PromoTheRobot]

Isn't the name Fire Chan ironic this week?

[Rico]

Cockrell is another and whilst Duke was probably drafted for a similar scheme - Pettine's he was not being horribly exposed every week in Schwartz's scheme... save for the failed experiment of him on Gronk.

 

EDIT: I should say I do see where the anti-Whaley crew are coming from I just see the evaluations on some players differently and the overall balance differently. I think people sometimes think you have to have 3 all-pros with your first 3 draft picks every year and the reality is NFL teams average 2/3 starters per draft. My evaluation he has 7 picks that delivered that so he is right about on the average as a drafter and some of his non flashy trades and FA pick ups have been A grade work.

That's cool. 6-9 solid players (not necessarily starters) with the arrow definitely pointing upward would be much better than the 3 that I'm counting.

[FireChan]

I just don't buy the argument I'm sorry.

 

EJ - bust

Woods - looks as though he has stood still or even regressed slightly this year but a decent player Fair enough here.

Kiko - Becomes Shady McCoy

Goodwin - Bust

Duke - Going to say bust but he was actually progressing ok at the back end of last year in Schwartz's defense - not a man cover safety which Rex's scheme has asked him to be too often. What scheme is he playing in now?

Meeks - only played special teams so have to say bust

Hopkins - Won the job in his first camp then got injured before a game was played and was beaten out by Carpenter who had two excellent years here So.....bust

Gragg - been a marginal contributor for 3 years but reasonable value from a 7th round pick Rotational player at best so okay.

 

Watkins - Outstanding football player

Kouandjio - Bust

Brown - Good football player - don't put any of his struggles this year on Whaley - dude flat out balled last year in the system he was drafted for.What system is he playing in in 2015 and 2016

Cockrell - Have to say bust for the Bills but he is a solid player in a different scheme So..bust.

Richardson - Bust

Johnson - solid special teams contributor

Henderson - Is a backup player in reality at the NFL level And may not be on any NFL roster next year

 

Darby - Excellent pick

Miller - to say he stinks is way off. He has had an up and down rookie year but go look at the stats on how often the Bills 1st ranked running offense has run behind John Miller. Has a lot of work still to do in his pass protection but a solid pick who will only get better. Generous, but okay. Let's stick with mediocre but lots of time to improve. He had no Zach Martin rookie year, or even half what he did

Karlos Williams - excellent value pick Yes, but a backup

Tony Steward - spent a lot of the year on IR - incomplete

Nick O'Leary - Incomplete

Dez Lewis - Incomplete

 

 

Out of 21 total picks in 3 years (and it should be said that whilst the 2013 draft had Whaley's prints on it his guys were not yet heading up the personnel department) I make that:

 

4 outstanding picks (Watkins, Darby, Karlos and Kiko that becomes Shady);

3 solid NFL calibre starters (Woods, Brown and Miller);

3 backup calibre / special teams guys (Gragg, Henderson and Johnson);

3 incompletes (Steward, O'Leary and Lewis); and

1 genuine can't be helped excuse (Hopkins).

 

That leaves 7 busts.... of those there is no doubt that the swing and miss for EJ hurts us but the mismanagement of that position prior to that draft is not on Whaley... CK hurts and Goodwin too. And that is just his drafting.... look at the other players he has found in trades or free agency... obviously headlined by Hughes, but Incognito, Wynn, Bryant, Rambo, Graham, Spikes last year... there is a lot of good Doug Whaley has done.

 

That said this is a big draft and FA period for him. He has a lot of work on to try and transform the expensive defensive side of this roster into what Rex wants. I am not giving Whaley a pass for evermore... but I think he has done a B/B- job with this team so far and he deserves to keep his job at this stage.

 

 

Cockrell is another and whilst Duke was probably drafted for a similar scheme - Pettine's he was not being horribly exposed every week in Schwartz's scheme... save for the failed experiment of him on Gronk.

 

EDIT: I should say I do see where the anti-Whaley crew are coming from I just see the evaluations on some players differently and the overall balance differently. I think people sometimes think you have to have 3 all-pros with your first 3 draft picks every year and the reality is NFL teams average 2/3 starters per draft. My evaluation he has 7 picks that delivered that so he is right about on the average as a drafter and some of his non flashy trades and FA pick ups have been A grade work.

With the transition into the RR era, many of Whaley's picks have moved from good to decent and some have even fallen to terrible. PB52, while effective in the 2014 scheme, has been rendered to a liability now. Depending on your view of the RR hiring, that makes the decision to draft him, at best, a wash, and at worst, a waste/bust. I don't know about you, but I don't consider a 1 year as a solid starter as a good ROI. Duke may fall under this umbrella as well. That's why I titled the thread what I did. Because the RR era is taking Whaley's good moves down at an alarming rate.

 

So my compromised list WRT your points would be as follows

 

3 great/good players (costing 5 picks total) - Darby, Sammy, McCoy

1 player whose job is safe for next season, but isn't necessarily great or complete yet - Karlos

3 guys who we will be looking to upgrade, but have roles in weak positions - Woods. Miller, Brown

And the rest are unknowns, busts or fringe roster ST guys.

 

And that's kind of a problem. Because last offseason, we probably had more more or the same amount of quality Whaley picks before we knew what we had in Darby and Karlos. Two good picks a draft later and we appear to be treading water.

 

So when you tell me the average GM drafts 2/3 solid starters a year, I don't see us hitting that. I see us with 3 great to solid starters, and a bunch of folks who are mediocre at best and probably on their way out. Just because our LB group is garbage doesn't mean Preston Brown is a good draft pick. He's just slightly better than garbage.

 

I do want to thank you for actually stepping up and challenging me with a thoughtful post. There's been too much of the normal shout-downs and sniping from the peanut gallery who have nothing ever to offer besides snark. Posts like yours are too few around here.

Hell is a never-ending FireChan argument.

I always knew you were sweet on me.

 

 

Thanks, appreciate you taking the time to find those.

I gotchu.

 

considering the points he has been making and the passion he has put in to them it is quite amazing he has stood up and won many of them. time will tell if he is right, though.

 

i have really enjoyed your posts of recent. seems like a bug has been up your arse with the way you've responded but you've been making some strong counter points to a lot of the drivel that is spewed here.

I don't understand the bolded.

 

But thanks. I suppose I'm channeling my disappointment at the Bills season into this.

 

Your smarter then this

 

So your saying that if Rex convinced the Pegulas who were HEAVILY involved in this process that Doug Whaley is gonna say "Oh no im putting my foot down here"

 

No GM in Whaley's position is going to do that

 

Look....some of Whaley's picks did not pan out....but your counting players but some of those players

 

Were the running for rookie defensive player of the year

Were traded to other teams

Had injuries or things that came up AFTER they were drafted

 

For example

 

WHaley drafted a linebacker who was in the running for rookie defensive player of the year (he has actually drafted 2 in consecutive years).....took a completely unforseen Injury....then was traded for a top 5 (at the time) running back.

 

and

 

Whalyey drafted a OT in the late rounds that ended up being a starter for us......then we find out later that he has a unforseen desease

 

THOSE ARE NOT NEGATIVES ON WHALEY........

 

The QB pick is unfortunate....and in hindsight probably not the right pick......but GM's do this....GMs overdraft QBs when they dont have one.

 

And lets not do revisionist history on Ryan Fitzpatric....who has a history of coming up small at the biggest times in his career. We gave him that huge contract and he didnt live up to it.

We aren't sure that happened. We do know they gave Whaley control of the interview from the football standpoint. Terry even said he almost fell asleep.

 

If your argument is that Terry and Kim loved Rex and hired him while making the GM feel like he had to toe the company line and lie about how he felt about the hire from a football standpoint, well I don't know if that's any better (in fact it sounds much, much worse), although it does absolve Whaley. Is that your contention?

 

As to your other points, GM's are judged on the results of their picks. No one cares that nobody in the Pats front office knew how great Brady was gonna be. The result was excellent, everyone gets praised. The opposite also holds true.

Edited January 3, 2016 by FireChan

[boyst]

I don't understand the bolded.

you're being an a-hole for the most part, but that doesn't matter when you're making a point and solid argument.

Edited January 3, 2016 by Boyst62

[Mr. WEO]

 

People with agendas will always look for every possible way to further their agenda even if it means bending the truth like a pretzel

 

Wow...and said without any obvious irony...

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

when schemes change, players effectiveness within them changes. Very few of theses guys at very few positions are excellent irrespective of scheme. When they change you can flip a strong player into a weak one.

[Mr. WEO]

Can't count Kiko as an "outstanding" pick. He is mediocre here or there at this point.

 

Just because he netted us McCoy means nothing. He wasn't drafted for that and this trade got Kelly fired.

[FireChan]

Can't count Kiko as an "outstanding" pick. He is mediocre here or there at this point.

 

Just because he netted us McCoy means nothing. He wasn't drafted for that and this trade got Kelly fired.

I'm trying to stand consistent with the utilitarian philosophy.

[John from Riverside]

Can't count Kiko as an "outstanding" pick. He is mediocre here or there at this point.

 

Just because he netted us McCoy means nothing. He wasn't drafted for that and this trade got Kelly fired.

wow

 

Kiko was in the running for D rookie of the year.....by ANY GM standards that is a great pick

 

then he injures himself and is out out for a season NOT THE GM's FAULT

 

THen he is traded to the Eagles and doesnt have a good season....on a leg that typically takes 2 years to recover from an injury of that kind.

 

I would like to see what Kiko looks like NEXT year before deciding on the player's future....shoot....I would like to have Kiko BACK

[DanInUticaTampa]

As we continue on the RR path of total dismantling, the "good" picks of DW are dropping like flies.

 

From the 2013 draft, it looks like we'll have 1 starter directly from it. McCoy, who is a solid starter. However, considering his massive contract, he isn't as good as a productive draft pick. Notable shout out to Nickell Robey, who after a promising rookie campaign has been weak as well.

 

From the 2014 draft, it looks like again we'll have 1 solid starter from it as well. He cost us a bunch of other picks, so again, not fantastic, but he does appear to have been worth it. PB is now weak. Seantrel's career is in jeopardy. Cyril is invisible. Ross is productive on another roster.

 

And the 2015 draft. Darby was a great pick. Karlos has had great value, but his concussions are a long-term concern. And everyone else is too soon to say.

 

So over 3 drafts, we have 4 good players. All other promising prospects have either busted or are still unproductive and unsafe. And this is the guy whose job is safe?

 

Even his "heist" of Hughes is lessened by us signing him to a lucrative long-term deal and his production being hampered. Did we really pay him all that money for ~5 sacks and 2 pass breakups? Not a net negative looking at the whole body of work, but it's no longer a slam dunk.

 

Sorta sad how things change.

 

 

There is a large gray area here since some of these players are still developing. Preston brown had a great rookie year. He regressed this year, but i cant call a 2nd year linebacker a bust after he had one good year and one bad year. Miller looks like he has promise, but needs development. I can't write him off as a bust yet.

 

I think he reached on the watkins pick and the CK pick sure looks bad. but overall, he has been solid

 

I am not saying his drafting is great, but it is at least average compared to the rest of the league.