Billsfan1972 Posted January 3, 2016 Author Posted January 3, 2016 (edited) I wanted to see if what you were saying was really true, if we were neglecting Sammy in the passing game, so I did some digging. Below are stats since 11/08 (when Sammy finally came back healthy for the 2nd half of the year) for each of the three receivers: Sammy Watkins 8 Games Targets: 63 (7.87/gm) Catches: 38 (4.75/gm) Catch Rate: 60% Yards: 764 (95.5/gm) TDs: 7 (.88/gm) % of Team Passing Yards: 44% % of Team Targets: 29% DeAndre Hopkins 7 Games Targets: 68 (9.71/gm) Catches: 38 (5.42/gm) Catch Rate: 56% Yards: 562 (80.3/gm) TDs: 5 (.71/gm) % of Team Passing Yards: 39% % of Team Targets: 31% Odell Beckham 6 Games Targets: 76 (12.6/gm) Catches: 41 (6.83/gm) Catch Rate: 54% Yards: 742 (123/gm) TDs: 6 (1/gm) % of Team Passing Yards: 42% % of Team Targets: 31% From a pure #s perspective, Sammy and Deandre aren't that far off each other during that time, while ODB has been used significantly more. However, when adjusting for pass attempts (which is a combination of style of offense, game scripts, etc), we haven't thrown to Sammy that much less, as ODB and DeAndre get thrown at 31% of the time while Sammy gets thrown at 29% of the time when their teams pass the ball. Sounds to me like what you really want is for Sammy not to be injured during the first half of the year, and for us to change to more of a passing offense from a rushing one. Now throw in Antonio Brown & Julio Jones and others...... Outside the Philly game where he only caught 5 of 12 passes (and I was away for that one) everything thrown at Watkins seemed he would catch. I saw the second half of the KC game (a joke). The Houston game they threw at him 4 times. Washington only the second half in a game they were down 21-0 and should have thrown for 350, but Roman kept on play calling like it was a 7 point game. Dallas 6, NE 6 and NYJ 7 for 14 yards (and Watkins was not great that game). Only the NYJ & Miami games were they ahead by more then a TD. All the other games required passing by the Bills to score or stay in the game. Thus again back to Roman and bad play calling. DeAndre has had 3 different QBs the last 4 weeks, two that barely knew the playbook..... Watch the games and you see that Watkins is underutilized. Edited January 3, 2016 by Billsfan1972
Chilly Posted January 3, 2016 Posted January 3, 2016 Okay... on the season: Julio Jones has 33% of Matt Ryan's targets. Antonio Brown is 32%. Again Sammy is not far off when he's been healthy at 29%. You just don't like a run-oriented offense and injuries. By the way, of these five teams, here's where they rank on Points Scored/Game: #4 Pittsburgh - 26.3 #6 NYG - 26.0 #12 BUF - 23.8 #21 ATL - 21.5 #24 HOU - 20.6 We're squarely in the middle of all the teams you mentioned, AND they've had their #1 receiver healthy for more than half the year!
What a Tuel Posted January 3, 2016 Posted January 3, 2016 So, are people complaint that the coaches and QB don't utilize Watkins enough or arguing that Watkins isn't good. If it is the former, you have to realize that: 1. QB is a first year starter 2. Offense is intended to run the ball more than pass it 3. Injuries to other WRs have cause defenses to add even more focus on Watkins 4. Watkins played injured early in the year IIRC 5. Depleted backfield made offense 1 dimensional for many games and army (allowing more focus on Watkins by defense) There is a mixture of both types of people. The ones that think Watkins isn't good enough are flat out wrong. The ones that think he is under utilized are half wrong and half right in my opinion. I think Tyrod is capable enough to get Sammy Watkins the ball more, and if Sammy is open then why not. I also think that Sammy isn't super human and he isn't open every play though. We need a real #2 WR to help with that like Harvin was supposed to be.
ganesh Posted January 3, 2016 Posted January 3, 2016 The slow start this year and lack of perceived communication between TT and Watkins was cited as a fair argument. Then I read that DeAndre Hopkins has 104 catches and 1,438 yards (vs. 49 and 911) but he has done it with Hoyer, Mallett, TJ Yates & Weeden throwing to him, meaning absolutely no chemistry but still success. First receiver with 4 100 yard games with different qb's in a season. I know I have repeated this over and over, but it is ridiculous to read this and wonder what Roman & Rx are thinking. Watkins came out and complained that he wanted 10 targets and I wonder did any coach pay attention? Will things change in 2016? A player can get 10+ targets only if they can keep the chains moving. Our offense's inability to convert 3rd and short this season was a big reason for not having enough targets.
boyst Posted January 3, 2016 Posted January 3, 2016 Okay... on the season: Julio Jones has 33% of Matt Ryan's targets. Antonio Brown is 32%. Again Sammy is not far off when he's been healthy at 29%. You just don't like a run-oriented offense and injuries. By the way, of these five teams, here's where they rank on Points Scored/Game: #4 Pittsburgh - 26.3 #6 NYG - 26.0 #12 BUF - 23.8 #21 ATL - 21.5 #24 HOU - 20.6 We're squarely in the middle of all the teams you mentioned, AND they've had their #1 receiver healthy for more than half the year! what teams have lost their #1? Packers, Panthers? Would be curious what their stats look like this year compared to years past. It'd be very hard to derive such stats but when a #1 gets 25% of the targets and he is out - where do those targets actually go? Would the stats show us? Would the stats show us they run more?
Billsfan1972 Posted January 3, 2016 Author Posted January 3, 2016 A player can get 10+ targets only if they can keep the chains moving. Our offense's inability to convert 3rd and short this season was a big reason for not having enough targets. Or not throwing to him on first and second down. Wonder how Minnesota fans would respond if AP was used as a decoy and running plays called for the half back? Aaron Rogers is a great QB, but let's call runs at a uch higher % because the Defense is keying in on Rogers.
dave mcbride Posted January 3, 2016 Posted January 3, 2016 Houston: 24th in yards, 21st in points. Buffalo: 12th in yards, 11th in points, 1st in rushing yards, 1st in rushing yards per attempt. There's your answer.
Billsfan1972 Posted January 3, 2016 Author Posted January 3, 2016 Houston: 24th in yards, 21st in points. Buffalo: 12th in yards, 11th in points, 1st in rushing yards, 1st in rushing yards per attempt. There's your answer. DeAndre on a worse offensive team, with worse QB'ing has caught over double the passes and 101 more targets!!!!!!!!! In addition Houston's passing offense ranked 18th vs. Buffalo's 27th. Houston playing to make the playoffs with Brandon Weeden, Bills playing for 8-8...... What's the point?
jumbalaya Posted January 3, 2016 Posted January 3, 2016 I wanted to see if what you were saying was really true, if we were neglecting Sammy in the passing game, so I did some digging. Below are stats since 11/08 (when Sammy finally came back healthy for the 2nd half of the year) for each of the three receivers: Sammy Watkins 8 Games Targets: 63 (7.87/gm) Catches: 38 (4.75/gm) Catch Rate: 60% Yards: 764 (95.5/gm) TDs: 7 (.88/gm) % of Team Passing Yards: 44% % of Team Targets: 29% DeAndre Hopkins 7 Games Targets: 68 (9.71/gm) Catches: 38 (5.42/gm) Catch Rate: 56% Yards: 562 (80.3/gm) TDs: 5 (.71/gm) % of Team Passing Yards: 39% % of Team Targets: 31% Odell Beckham 6 Games Targets: 76 (12.6/gm) Catches: 41 (6.83/gm) Catch Rate: 54% Yards: 742 (123/gm) TDs: 6 (1/gm) % of Team Passing Yards: 42% % of Team Targets: 31% From a pure #s perspective, Sammy and Deandre aren't that far off each other during that time, while ODB has been used significantly more. However, when adjusting for pass attempts (which is a combination of style of offense, game scripts, etc), we haven't thrown to Sammy that much less, as ODB and DeAndre get thrown at 31% of the time while Sammy gets thrown at 29% of the time when their teams pass the ball. Sounds to me like what you really want is for Sammy not to be injured during the first half of the year, and for us to change to more of a passing offense from a rushing one. This just shows how poor our game planning had been. Not to have Sammy involved was criminal. Sammy was right. At the same time you can't catch the ball riding the pine. Two suggestions for Sammy, get a hair cut and go across the middle next year.
dave mcbride Posted January 3, 2016 Posted January 3, 2016 DeAndre on a worse offensive team, with worse QB'ing has caught over double the passes and 101 more targets!!!!!!!!! In addition Houston's passing offense ranked 18th vs. Buffalo's 27th. Houston playing to make the playoffs with Brandon Weeden, Bills playing for 8-8...... What's the point? There is a pretty strong chance that they end up with the exact same record. The Texans have a better defense, and the Bills have a better offense. It's also worth noting that Watkins missed 2.5 games. I look at overall offense, btw. The fact that the Bills are lower in passing yards is more than compensated by the fact of their elite rushing yard numbers.
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