Shining a light on Shady

[John from Riverside]

 

 

True. The chief importance of the modern running game is mainly how it supports your passing game. The Bills rushing attack will be more complementary next year when the big backs are getting more carries and either tiring/wearing down nickel defenses or causing teams to put an extra LB on the field.

 

 

 

And to Hondo..........it sounds like a real saying....but there is no motto that goes like "When you don't have a franchise QB, you need a franchise RB"

 

 

......and "DW made the deal he had to make at that time" is just a hollow, fact-free opinion presented in a manner of certainty for effect.

 

 

GaryP......the question is did you type those couple paragraphs to set up your "yenta" finish............or did you just get to the end, realize it was flimsy and just nuke it housewives-of-NJ style? In any event, thanks for your concern.

 

 

What people don't want to touch on are facts......real points that solid opinions are based upon........like that the running game was 20%-30% less effective at gaining yardage when McCoy carried the football..........and almost completely punchless in terms of creating scoring plays.

 

Now what you have going forward is a 28 year old RB coming off his third year of modest production per play in the past 4.........with close to $37M in cap hits over the next 4 seasons.......including $23M in guarantees still unamortized.

 

So when the end of 2016 rolls around and it's rather obvious that he's not going to be worth even a fraction of his upcoming cap hit......and he's much too old to EXTEND to save cap $........the team is looking at $15-$20M in dead money for 2017.

 

That is significant, DrDareustein......because the team is already pushing debt into future years. I'm not saying YOU need to worry about it.

 

I, like you, grew tired of the cap excuses the Littman Bills used to avoid giving away any of their $30M-$40M+ in profits every year. I'm not sure what is more insulting, that it was horded at the expense of winning......or that it was horded to just give away.

 

This is just a topic in a thread that you guys can ignore or discuss, but indifference and support are not the same thing. If you don't care......fine. If you support the deal......then maybe offer up a supporting argument with some facts or take a stand and tell me how next year Shady will return to the 2013 form and rush for 5ypc and 1500 yards and 8-10 TD's.

 

I don't see either of those things.............and that basically means that you guys simply do not Billieve in Shady being anywhere near a "superstar" RB.

cap bla bla bla bla

 

dead money bla bla bla bla bla

 

An awful lot of bitching for a pro bowl running back

 

Lets see what happens next year as far as the injury bug.......if he has a huge year will you be making the same argumement?

[BADOLBILZ]

cap bla bla bla bla

 

dead money bla bla bla bla bla

 

An awful lot of bitching for a pro bowl running back

 

Lets see what happens next year as far as the injury bug.......if he has a huge year will you be making the same argumement?

 

Even though you stubbornly refuse to present a statistically supportive argument.........and oh-so timidly refuse to offer your own opinion on his 2016 season...........I will dignify your take with a response.

 

If Shady had performed as promised........I'd have admitted as much. I've never been afraid to admit I was wrong.

 

Then again.......I've never dogged people's takes just because I don't like how they sound.....like you and a few other regular complainers. Truth doesn't always sound like everyone wants it to.

 

Offer up a basis for why you think he was so great this year........do you think 895 yards and 4.4 ypc was a great year? If so, put it in perspective and tell me why.

 

You can't, because it wasn't. But maybe there is some advanced stat I am missing that explains why the relative lack of tangible production doesn't accurately represent his performance.

 

That frustrates you so like in the Directv commercial.......you just say bla, bla, bla and add a "shm" to the front of everything so it seems not so important.

 

Cable/shmable. Touchdowns/Shmouchdowns. Top 3 RB/Shmop 3 RB.

[John from Riverside]

 

Even though you stubbornly refuse to present a statistically supportive argument.........and oh-so timidly refuse to offer your own opinion on his 2016 season...........I will dignify your take with a response.

 

If Shady had performed as promised........I'd have admitted as much. I've never been afraid to admit I was wrong.

 

Then again.......I've never dogged people's takes just because I don't like how they sound.....like you and a few other regular complainers. Truth doesn't always sound like everyone wants it to.

 

Offer up a basis for why you think he was so great this year........do you think 895 yards and 4.4 ypc was a great year? If so, put it in perspective and tell me why.

 

You can't, because it wasn't. But maybe there is some advanced stat I am missing that explains why the relative lack of tangible production doesn't accurately represent his performance.

 

That frustrates you so like in the Directv commercial.......you just say bla, bla, bla and add a "shm" to the front of everything so it seems not so important.

 

Cable/shmable. Touchdowns/Shmouchdowns. Top 3 RB/Shmop 3 RB.

point 1 - injuries happen

 

point 2 - he still had a respectable season even though has been hurt a large part of it

 

point 3 - he has not been injury prone in the past

 

point 4 - still made the pro bowl

 

Your point is old.....you continue to complain that you didnt get the bang for your buck because of his contract.

 

Its not my money.....I enjoyed watching him play this year.....and there is NOTHING that points to a certainty that next year he will be injury prone....nothing....because ANYBODY can get injuried in the NFL.

 

but go ahead....continue to B word about how much he makes like you pay it.

[BADOLBILZ]

point 1 - injuries happen

 

point 2 - he still had a respectable season even though has been hurt a large part of it

 

point 3 - he has not been injury prone in the past

 

point 4 - still made the pro bowl

 

Your point is old.....you continue to complain that you didnt get the bang for your buck because of his contract.

 

Its not my money.....I enjoyed watching him play this year.....and there is NOTHING that points to a certainty that next year he will be injury prone....nothing....because ANYBODY can get injuried in the NFL.

 

but go ahead....continue to B word about how much he makes like you pay it.

 

Injury is your first 3 excuses?

 

Then fresh legs is the reason he did well immediately after the layoff........but then tailed off.

 

Give me some McCoy numbers next year. Don't be such a timid little b.

[John from Riverside]

 

Injury is your first 3 excuses?

 

Then fresh legs is the reason he did well immediately after the layoff........but then tailed off.

 

Give me some McCoy numbers next year. Don't be such a timid little b.

You want me to project like I know what is gonna happen?

 

Do you think that you doing that somehow makes you look intelligent

 

Somehow you think that by spitting out cap numbers the rest of your arguement must be true as well....its not...u have NO idea how he is going to play next year.

 

If he stays healthy? Because of his utilization and ability in both the run and pass he should put up excellent numbers

[BADOLBILZ]

You want me to project like I know what is gonna happen?

 

Do you think that you doing that somehow makes you look intelligent

 

Somehow you think that by spitting out cap numbers the rest of your arguement must be true as well....its not...u have NO idea how he is going to play next year.

 

If he stays healthy? Because of his utilization and ability in both the run and pass he should put up excellent numbers

 

I'm told he's been excellent producing 4.3ypc and just 8 total rushing TD's on over 500 carries in the past two seasons.

 

That's not excellent.

 

But by all means keep not having an actual take and being critical of others that do.

 

It's a message board for chrissake.......you don't have to wager any money.........if you are so sure I am wrong and need to disagree then grow a pair and take a position.

 

Post a projection. Be the first of your kind to do so. Of course you won't because you don't even believe it yourself.

[Dawgg]

Badol:

 

Just one question: why do you keep doing this?

 

Arguing with the likes of JFH and the kool-aid drinking masses @ TSW is akin to arguing with an 8 y/o fan - an exercise in futility.

 

They don't understand the concept of leverage: that the team could have easily made the trade and demanded that McCoy perform under his current deal, which had 2-3 years remaining on it. A case study in Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew is illustrative enough of how little leverage these backs have in today's NFL.

 

They don't understand the concept of amortization and the negative impact it can have on cap structure. Stating that "it's not my money" is the epitome of ignorance.

 

Nor do they understand that one of the major reasons the Bills have the longest playoff drought in NFL history is the heavy resources they have poured into the Running Back position - a position that has largely been devalued in the draft and monetary value.

 

Back to hibernation I go

 

 

#BADOL, on 30 Dec 2015 - 8:29 PM, said:

 

I'm told he's been excellent producing 4.3ypc and just 8 total rushing TD's on over 500 carries in the past two seasons.

 

That's not excellent.

 

But by all means keep not having an actual take and being critical of others that do.

 

It's a message board for chrissake.......you don't have to wager any money.........if you are so sure I am wrong and need to disagree then grow a pair and take a position.

 

Post a projection. Be the first of your kind to do so. Of course you won't because you don't even believe it yourself.

[BADOLBILZ]

Badol:

 

Just one question: why do you keep doing this?

 

Arguing with the likes of JFH and the kool-aid drinking masses @ TSW is akin to arguing with an 8 y/o fan - an exercise in futility.

 

They don't understand the concept of leverage: that the team could have easily made the trade and demanded that McCoy perform under his current deal, which had 2-3 years remaining on it. A case study in Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew is illustrative enough of how little leverage these backs have in today's NFL.

 

They don't understand the concept of amortization and the negative impact it can have on cap structure. Stating that "it's not my money" is the epitome of ignorance.

 

Nor do they understand that one of the major reasons the Bills have the longest playoff drought in NFL history is the heavy resources they have poured into the Running Back position - a position that has largely been devalued in the draft and monetary value.

 

Back to hibernation I go

 

 

#BADOL, on 30 Dec 2015 - 8:29 PM, said:

 

 

Yeah I went over and over that contract issue with the former Greggy T this past summer.

 

His argument was that "no way" would he play under the existing contract..........and yet I don't recall any talk of him possibly holding out for a new deal in Philly coming off of a season where he barely managed a league average 4.2 ypc.

 

Personally.......I don't think a lack of effort on the field was a big for McCoy......he was even a little more consistent in that regard than I expected.......but he sure seems like the last guy to figure out where the big plays are in this rush scheme now doesn't he?

 

Giving him that new deal was a total cave-in and they basically just tossed at least $20M in the trash because the guy isn't going to come close to playing this deal out.

 

If he were a physical back, his low production per carry wouldn't be the death knell.........but the league has shunned scatbacks.

 

You want snaps as a scatback now? You better be a reliable 5ypc guy who hits HR's or it just isn't worth the physical tradeoff.

 

Ask CJ Spiller. He actually had a HIGHER ypc in year one with Marrone than McCoy did this year and all we heard about was how unproductive CJ was and how changes needed to be made.

 

And they were right.......his production was NOT acceptable.

 

Famiiarity will breed contempt for LeSean too if he doesn't ramp it up big time next year.

 

He got the celebrity bye this season from Bills fans starved for star players....... but even HE knows that he missed big opportunities by not executing what Roman drew up this year........so there is no excuse for a repeat performance.

 

But why do I do this?........to try to get some kind of debate from the other side.

 

It's usually pointless but make note that they lack the courage to match their seeming conviction.

 

I say seeming because even they know I'm right.

 

LeSean McCoy isn't going to be in Buffalo very long.

 

A career resurgence for a 28 year old running back after 3 down years in the past 4 is much more than unlikely.

Edited December 31, 2015 by #BADOL

[Rico]

Badol:

 

Just one question: why do you keep doing this?

 

Arguing with the likes of JFH and the kool-aid drinking masses @ TSW is akin to arguing with an 8 y/o fan - an exercise in futility.

 

They don't understand the concept of leverage: that the team could have easily made the trade and demanded that McCoy perform under his current deal, which had 2-3 years remaining on it. A case study in Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew is illustrative enough of how little leverage these backs have in today's NFL.

 

They don't understand the concept of amortization and the negative impact it can have on cap structure. Stating that "it's not my money" is the epitome of ignorance.

 

Nor do they understand that one of the major reasons the Bills have the longest playoff drought in NFL history is the heavy resources they have poured into the Running Back position - a position that has largely been devalued in the draft and monetary value.

 

Back to hibernation I go

 

 

#BADOL, on 30 Dec 2015 - 8:29 PM, said:

Later, Dawgg.

[Dawgg]

Later, Dawgg.

I've missed you bro

[John from Riverside]

I've missed you bro

Should have stayed there if that was all you had to offer.

 

Show up.....insult a few people....give the same tired arguement.....then "later folks"

[Maury Ballstein]

Send in the clowns. Where are the clowns.

 

Anyone remember when the OP said McCoy only tries when it's a nationally televised game ?

 

Your 6 month long shady tale is one big ass fable. Cool story bro.

 

Excellent football player and an asset. Chip Kelly nailed it huh ?

 

 

Shoutout to the capologist Dawgg for stopping by

Edited December 31, 2015 by Ryan L Billz

[dave mcbride]

True. The chief importance of the modern running game is mainly how it supports your passing game. The Bills rushing attack will be more complementary next year when the big backs are getting more carries and either tiring/wearing down nickel defenses or causing teams to put an extra LB on the field.

 

 

 

And to Hondo..........it sounds like a real saying....but there is no motto that goes like "When you don't have a franchise QB, you need a franchise RB"

 

 

......and "DW made the deal he had to make at that time" is just a hollow, fact-free opinion presented in a manner of certainty for effect.

 

 

GaryP......the question is did you type those couple paragraphs to set up your "yenta" finish............or did you just get to the end, realize it was flimsy and just nuke it housewives-of-NJ style? In any event, thanks for your concern.

 

 

What people don't want to touch on are facts......real points that solid opinions are based upon........like that the running game was 20%-30% less effective at gaining yardage when McCoy carried the football..........and almost completely punchless in terms of creating scoring plays.

 

Now what you have going forward is a 28 year old RB coming off his third year of modest production per play in the past 4.........with close to $37M in cap hits over the next 4 seasons.......including $23M in guarantees still unamortized.

 

So when the end of 2016 rolls around and it's rather obvious that he's not going to be worth even a fraction of his upcoming cap hit......and he's much too old to EXTEND to save cap $........the team is looking at $15-$20M in dead money for 2017.

 

That is significant, DrDareustein......because the team is already pushing debt into future years. I'm not saying YOU need to worry about it.

 

I, like you, grew tired of the cap excuses the Littman Bills used to avoid giving away any of their $30M-$40M+ in profits every year. I'm not sure what is more insulting, that it was horded at the expense of winning......or that it was horded to just give away.

 

This is just a topic in a thread that you guys can ignore or discuss, but indifference and support are not the same thing. If you don't care......fine. If you support the deal......then maybe offer up a supporting argument with some facts or take a stand and tell me how next year Shady will return to the 2013 form and rush for 5ypc and 1500 yards and 8-10 TD's.

 

I don't see either of those things.............and that basically means that you guys simply do not Billieve in Shady being anywhere near a "superstar" RB.

Good take. My view, though, is that the McCoy issue is a bit of a red herring--it's just not that important for either this season or next. They have far bigger deficiencies to surmount.

 

Here's how I see it: the Bills are the NFL equivalent of a third world country trying to become an Asian Tiger, as it were. They're not Japan, they're not Singapore, and they're not Taiwan. They're like Vietnam--a third world country with some promising indicators (high PISA rankings--the international educational standards tests). For Vietnam, getting higher up in the PISA rankings is a first world problem. That's a nice problem to have. Their biggest problems, though, are a lot worse -- genuine 3rd world problems.

 

The Bills running game is their lone first world problem (I'm speaking here of the length and size of McCoy's contract). But their other problems are bigger, more serious, and more entrenched--the equivalent of third problems.

Edited December 31, 2015 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

Send in the clowns. Where are the clowns.

 

Anyone remember when the OP said McCoy only tries when it's a nationally televised game ?

 

Your 6 month long shady tale is one big ass fable. Cool story bro.

 

Excellent football player and an asset. Chip Kelly nailed it huh ?

 

 

Shoutout to the capologist Dawgg for stopping by

 

 

I've been willing to let Shady play it out and see what he does.

 

I NEVER said that he only shows up for nationally televised games.

 

I said I was very interested to see if he could maintain his focus and effort when the spotlight was off.......two different things.

 

Because remember....he played well in the first Pats game with a "bad hammy"........but then disappeared until the game against the undefeated Bengals.

 

By playing an excellent game in rushing for 112 yards against a tough Jets D in a high profile game in NY............and subsequently by face-planting in his SB.....the Eagles revenge game.......I think he proved that his degree of want-to wasn't the limiting factor in his performance.

 

 

 

And yes......shoutout to Dawgg for bringing up the fact that teams DO NOT CAVE to demands of high mileage RB's anymore.

[BADOLBILZ]

Good take. My view, though, is that the McCoy issue is a bit of a red herring--it's just not that important for either this season or next. They have far bigger deficiencies to surmount.

 

Here's how I see it: the Bills are the NFL equivalent of a third world country trying to become an Asian Tiger, as it were. They're not Japan, they're not Singapore, and they're not Taiwan. They're like Vietnam--a third world country with some promising indicators (high PISA rankings--the international educational standards tests). For Vietnam, getting higher up in the PISA rankings is a first world problem. That's a nice problem to have. Their biggest problems, though, are a lot worse -- genuine 3rd world problems.

 

The Bills running game is their lone first world problem (I'm speaking here of the length and size of McCoy's contract). But their other problems are bigger, more serious, and more entrenched--the equivalent of third problems.

 

There are bigger problems.......no doubt about it.

 

And as you know I was all over the main issue....Rex.......early in the season......pointing out the obvious communication and alignment issues of his defense before the media was willing to dabble in it.

 

This is a thread about a topic that will begin to emerge as a fan-visible problem next season and could possibly lead to as much as 1/8 of the Bills 2017 salary cap being dead money from McCoy......going into an offseason with a potential huge QB contract coming on the books(hopefully).

 

That pertains to now because this team has needs to fill in free agency this year......mostly because of Rex inability to adapt to personnel.........and McCoy's dead $ looms as a factor in deciding how they spend money this offseason, IMO.

 

I mean........did ANYONE really see anything from McCoy that made them think that he will be the starting RB here in 2017?

 

Honestly?

 

He is fun to watch but just how much LESS production can you accept before you gotta play other backs? And then what happens?

 

As you said earlier.......people who are blowing off the huge guaranteed money left on his deal are whistling past the graveyard.

[Maury Ballstein]

 

 

I've been willing to let Shady play it out and see what he does.

 

I NEVER said that he only shows up for nationally televised games.

 

I said I was very interested to see if he could maintain his focus and effort when the spotlight was off.......two different things.

 

Because remember....he played well in the first Pats game with a "bad hammy"........but then disappeared until the game against the undefeated Bengals.

 

By playing an excellent game in rushing for 112 yards against a tough Jets D in a high profile game in NY............and subsequently by face-planting in his SB.....the Eagles revenge game.......I think he proved that his degree of want-to wasn't the limiting factor in his performance.

 

 

 

And yes......shoutout to Dawgg for bringing up the fact that teams DO NOT CAVE to demands of high mileage RB's anymore.

109 yards vs Eagles wasn't a total fail on his part. Offensive line got smoked 2nd half 1 TD 1 INT Tyrod ain't gonna do it.

 

He gets paid what his comps get paid. http://overthecap.com/position/running-back/

 

Unless you wanna draft Todd Gurley then I've got no problem paying for nice things.

[BADOLBILZ]

109 yards vs Eagles wasn't a total fail on his part. Offensive line got smoked 2nd half 1 TD 1 INT Tyrod ain't gonna do it.

 

He gets paid what his comps get paid. http://overthecap.com/position/running-back/

 

Unless you wanna draft Todd Gurley then I've got no problem paying for nice things.

 

Anytime you are under a measly 4 ypc and aren't providing a physical impact you are having a bad game on the ground.

 

The Eagles were able to attack gaps because they knew McCoy would just keep going wider and wider if they shot them.

 

They knew how to stop him from making an impact.

 

As did Washington.

 

The guy just won't put his foot in the ground and take it hard to the house......he seeks the safety of the sideline.

 

Teams that have played him regularly knew that and that was a big factor in his decline in production in 2014.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Good take. My view, though, is that the McCoy issue is a bit of a red herring--it's just not that important for either this season or next. They have far bigger deficiencies to surmount.

 

Here's how I see it: the Bills are the NFL equivalent of a third world country trying to become an Asian Tiger, as it were. They're not Japan, they're not Singapore, and they're not Taiwan. They're like Vietnam--a third world country with some promising indicators (high PISA rankings--the international educational standards tests). For Vietnam, getting higher up in the PISA rankings is a first world problem. That's a nice problem to have. Their biggest problems, though, are a lot worse -- genuine 3rd world problems.

 

The Bills running game is their lone first world problem (I'm speaking here of the length and size of McCoy's contract). But their other problems are bigger, more serious, and more entrenched--the equivalent of third problems.

Dave, I'll go with Indonesia. A lot of resources but very poor management thereof. And as far as the running game goes, put a decent, solid line in front of a healthy McCoy and we'll all be glad we have him.

[dave mcbride]

Dave, I'll go with Indonesia. A lot of resources but very poor management thereof. And as far as the running game goes, put a decent, solid line in front of a healthy McCoy and we'll all be glad we have him.

Good analogy!

[BADOLBILZ]

And as far as the running game goes, put a decent, solid line in front of a healthy McCoy and we'll all be glad we have him.

 

 

We just spent an entire thread pointing out that this is NOT the case.

 

The OL was either excellent at running the football this year or Gillislee and Karlos are the next Jamal Charles and Adrian Peterson, respectively.

 

I think one of the other trends that people seem to miss is that good running teams don't feel compelled to pay big money to BOTH top level OL and a top level RB.

 

One or the other.

 

If Shady needs 4 OL making $6M or more to excel then he just plain isn't any good.