dave mcbride Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 (edited) I'll open with a small caveat--focusing on points allowed can be deceiving because a team might have a terrible qb who throws lots of picks and fumbles a lot on sack plays, and that can result in points for the other team. Rex has certainly had that over the years. Still, over a five year stretch going back to 2011, here is how his defenses have fared on the points allowed front: 20th, 20th, 19th, 24th, and 16th (this year). All of those Jets defenses did well on the yards allowed front (they were 6th last season), but not so much on the points front. Interestingly, the Bills basically ran a Rex defense in 2013, and while being strong on the yards allowed front (10th) and great in all of the footballoutsiders.com metrics (4th overall) they were 20th in points allowed. What is it about this type of defense and ponts allowed? I know he had success in that category in 2008 (Ravens; 3rd), 2009 (1st) and 2010 (6th), but that was a while ago, and 5 years straight is a trend. Incidentally, the Ravens D was 6th in yards allowed and 22nd in points in 2007 too. Edited December 20, 2015 by dave mcbride
TPS Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 I did the same comparison awhile back, here. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/178856-the-defense-hype-vs-stats/?hl=hype
dpberr Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 I'd gather his defense was very successful at the turn of the last decade - 1999-2000-2001. I think offenses adapted at some point and figured it out. He keeps using it and its now somewhat effective but IMO his currency is more reputation than results these days.
BmarvB Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 I'd gather his defense was very successful at the turn of the last decade - 1999-2000-2001. I think offenses adapted at some point and figured it out. He keeps using it and its now somewhat effective but IMO his currency is more reputation than results these days. You're right. And let's not forget the all important stat - WINS!!
Virgil Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 Points is deceiving. What was average field position? Were they already in field goal range because captain turnover Geno was playing. Turnovers, sacks, 3rd down completion percentage, and yardage is what I care about.
KOKBILLS Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 I'd gather his defense was very successful at the turn of the last decade - 1999-2000-2001. I think offenses adapted at some point and figured it out. He keeps using it and its now somewhat effective but IMO his currency is more reputation than results these days. Yep...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 Points is deceiving. What was average field position? Were they already in field goal range because captain turnover Geno was playing. Turnovers, sacks, 3rd down completion percentage, and yardage is what I care about. Interestingly, two of the four things you care about are not particularly correlated with winning (sacks, and yardage given up), while points allowed (no surprise) is. Teams that are successful at forcing turnovers and at 3rd down conversions (again no surprise) give up fewer points. 3rd down completions don't matter if they don't convert, I'm not sure whether you mean conversions which is the more common stat
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