TPS Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 Here's a piece by a tech dude on how robots will replace most work in the near future. It's an issue that has actually been addressed by economists over 100 years ago (JS Mill, Marx, Keynes): what will happen to capitalism after it becomes so capital intensive and productive that there are not enough jobs available for the population yet there more than enough output to more than meet our needs? This is what underlies Marx's analysis for the emergence of socialism/communism--capitalism is so productive that it will lead to a new system. Thoughts from the right field section of the bleachers? http://www.businessinsider.com/ai-expert-jeremy-howard-on-universal-basic-income-2015-12
keepthefaith Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 Tell your kids to become hairdressers. You actually have to touch the person to perform the service.
TPS Posted December 17, 2015 Author Posted December 17, 2015 In other news, all that Fed money printing has caused oil prices to hit $35 a barrel...
Tiberius Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 I think about this a lot. I read so much about the past that I can't help look at the trend lines towards the future. I am not surprised there are not many responses to this post as it really touches on an uncomfortable reality that capitalism will bring a socialist future and that work will be not be necessary. A Conservative nightmare!
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 I think about this a lot. I read so much about the past that I can't help look at the trend lines towards the future. I am not surprised there are not many responses to this post as it really touches on an uncomfortable reality that capitalism will bring a socialist future and that work will be not be necessary. A Conservative nightmare! Actually, complete automation would be a conservative's joy. The ability to start a business without the problem of labor, the pure expression of idea into profit. Just MO.
Tiberius Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 Actually, complete automation would be a conservative's joy. The ability to start a business without the problem of labor, the pure expression of idea into profit. Just MO. Will there be businesses if everyone already has what they want?
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 Will there be businesses if everyone already has what they want? There's still going to be a need for THINGS. Someone has to provide such things. There's also still going to be want. If there's one constant, it's human greed and desire. Also, once general AI becomes self-aware, it could well mean the end of biological humanity and the next leap of evolution. Not that I necessarily think that's a bad thing.
Maury Ballstein Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 Not worried. One of the robots will say something racist or sexist and then we will put them in jail or take their NBA team away from them.
meazza Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 Clearly no one has worked in IT if they believe that technology doesn't actually mean having larger IT departments.
4merper4mer Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 Will there be businesses if everyone already has what they want? Some people aren't easily satisfied. Trust me, broads have an unlimited capacity to think up new crap that they want in the sack....or the hay...or the trapeze.....or whatever. Then again it makes for opportunity. Some people are easily satisfied. The Bible calls it sloth. In the imaginary world there is no reason to force the sloths to want more, but unfortunately in the real world they are like pot smokers. They have such guilt that they want to project the blame onto others. People that want to produce become villains because they aren't slothy enough. In the real world not everyone will have what they want because some...or most...will aspire to more. The nerds from high school only want to stifle the desires of others....their wants have more to do with dictating who should want what. Manual labor, partial automation or full on robot, that will never change. Just look at your own post.
Azalin Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 (edited) Clearly no one has worked in IT if they believe that technology doesn't actually mean having larger IT departments. As well as a greater need for engineers and service/repair technicians - higher paying, skilled labor. People get way too hung up on the fact that we use robots. Before robotic arms became commonplace in assembly lines, we called this sort of thing automation. The vast majority of jobs that have been lost to robotics are either boring, repetitive jobs (in which the robot performs an entire programed sequence over a preset time), or ones that involve a high risk of injury to humans. The ability of the human mind to discern and react is still a long way from being able to be mimicked by machinery. Edited December 17, 2015 by Azalin
Tiberius Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 As well as a greater need for engineers and service/repair technicians - higher paying, skilled labor. People get way too hung up on the fact that we use robots. Before robotic arms became commonplace in assembly lines, we called this sort of thing automation. The vast majority of jobs that have been lost to robotics are either boring, repetitive jobs (in which the robot performs an entire programed sequence over a preset time), or ones that involve a high risk of injury to humans. The ability of the human mind to discern and react is still a long way from being able to be mimicked by machinery. Long way? One hundred years? Maybe not that long. I don't think its being "hung up" on anything, its just that there will be a future that will be very very different from the present and trying to picture it is interesting. There will also be a tipping point where, sure, there will still be jobs, but perhaps a lot fewer jobs and that's going to require change economically, culturally, socially etc.
Azalin Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 Long way? One hundred years? Maybe not that long. I don't think its being "hung up" on anything, its just that there will be a future that will be very very different from the present and trying to picture it is interesting. There will also be a tipping point where, sure, there will still be jobs, but perhaps a lot fewer jobs and that's going to require change economically, culturally, socially etc. I'm not saying that the future won't be different than it is now. What I am saying is that to look upon technological advancement as ultimately putting an end to the availability of employment opportunities is not a correct way of looking at the issue. As technology continues to eliminate jobs currently held by humans, it simultaneously creates a demand for not just other jobs, but higher paying, skilled jobs. Where the internet created less of a demand for print news, it also created the necessity for IT jobs - which pay considerably better than what typesetters and delivery drivers/paperboys earn. This applies to nearly every area where technology and automation have come into play. What we're ultimately going to have is a greater need for higher skilled employees.
GG Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 Here's a piece by a tech dude on how robots will replace most work in the near future. It's an issue that has actually been addressed by economists over 100 years ago (JS Mill, Marx, Keynes): what will happen to capitalism after it becomes so capital intensive and productive that there are not enough jobs available for the population yet there more than enough output to more than meet our needs? This is what underlies Marx's analysis for the emergence of socialism/communism--capitalism is so productive that it will lead to a new system. Thoughts from the right field section of the bleachers? http://www.businessinsider.com/ai-expert-jeremy-howard-on-universal-basic-income-2015-12 I don't see how this portends the end of capitalism. It certainly portends the end of many repetitive standardized jobs that will be done by humans, and yes there will continue to be periodic upheavals, but it's a bit premature to call an end to capitalism. The life of Wall-E is coming upon us.
Tiberius Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 I'm not saying that the future won't be different than it is now. What I am saying is that to look upon technological advancement as ultimately putting an end to the availability of employment opportunities is not a correct way of looking at the issue. As technology continues to eliminate jobs currently held by humans, it simultaneously creates a demand for not just other jobs, but higher paying, skilled jobs. Where the internet created less of a demand for print news, it also created the necessity for IT jobs - which pay considerably better than what typesetters and delivery drivers/paperboys earn. This applies to nearly every area where technology and automation have come into play. What we're ultimately going to have is a greater need for higher skilled employees. That is the way it has always been, but I don't think that survives in the future. That process will play itself out, IMO. Again, not tomorrow or the next day, but probably sooner than most expect.
TH3 Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 In other news, all that Fed money printing has caused oil prices to hit $35 a barrel... You win the leap of the day!
Azalin Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 That is the way it has always been, but I don't think that survives in the future. That process will play itself out, IMO. Again, not tomorrow or the next day, but probably sooner than most expect. It may, it may not. What's significant in this is that for once, we are experiencing polite disagreement.
Tiberius Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 It may, it may not. What's significant in this is that for once, we are experiencing polite disagreement.
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