Carucci doesn't expect any offseason changes...

[HOUSE]

So Rex will rip down this defense then add some key tallent to run HIS DEFENSE ?

 

Great.....we do this every two years....

 

Its not working guys

[Nihilarian]

 

 

Apparently you are hell bent on driving home the Sacks statistics and didn't actually read what I wrote. Let me ask you this, who was the #1 "total defense" last year and where did they rank in Sacks? Oh, it was Seattle and they ranked 20th in Sacks.

 

If you read what I wrote to you, looking at Sacks isn't an end all be all to determining how good or bad a defense is. Is this years defense as good as last years? No. I said that. Is this years defense as bad as you keep stating with the "total defense" stat? IMO, no they aren't. I'll say it again, total defense is just total yards given up. That, IMO, isn't a very good indicator of how good or bad a defense is. If Team A has a bad offense and therefore sees more plays or drives against than Team B whose offense can sustain longer drives and their defense doesn't see as many drives against, can you honestly just look at Total Yards Against(Total Defense) and determine who the better defense is? It's a little more complicated than that.

 

According to Total Defense, Dallas is ranked 9th. Do you really think Dallas is the 9th ranked defense? Advanced statistics say they give up a higher percentage of scoring drives than the Bills do. They also have less yards total because they've had 40 less plays and 20 less drives against than the Bills defense. That's almost a whole games worth of plays/drives! Their average drive yardage is 2 yards more than the Bills defense. If you add 20 more drives with their average yards per drive to equal what the Bills defense has seen, their "Total Defense" would be 24th in the league.

 

Like I said, this years defense, IMO, is somewhere between 11-15. Not as good as last years and definitely disappointing in terms of expectations.

I was merely throwing out the 20th in defensive yards because that is a standard (by yards) that most people go by, or otherwise it wouldn't be one of the very first stats you see when you go to a football website and click on team stats.

 

 

And you seem intent on disregarding the fact that this years Buffalo Bills went from 1st in sacks to near last in sacks at 30th, and that is about the most important stat that most defensive minded coaches care about. Because with that stat comes other stats like QB hits, hurries, pressures. If your defense can't manage to get pressure on the opposing QB all the other defensive stats are basically irrelevant in my view.

 

Rex Ryan was noted for his past blitzing schemes, http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000213665/article/rex-ryans-new-york-jets-returning-to-blitzhappy-ways-in-2013 Great article from 2013 on how Rex Ryan will return to what made his 2009-2010 defenses so good!

 

"The bodacious defensive guru has promised to restore the aggressive mentality that carried Gang Green to consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances in the 2009 and '10 campaigns. During those seasons, Ryan acted as the defensive play caller for units that finished first and third, respectively, in total defense. He utilized blitz-heavy tactics with his initial teams to create chaos for quarterbacks in the pocket, while limiting available seams and creases for runners in the ground game."

 

"Looking at the numbers from Ryan's stint as the defensive play caller, it's apparent that he lives and dies with blitz pressure. He called blitzes on 50 percent of the Jets' defensive snaps during that two-year span, including an astonishing 52.4 percent blitz rate in 2009. Those percentages blow away theJets' blitz frequency over the past two seasons, under the direction of former defensive coordinator Mike Pettine: New York blitzed 32.8 and 34 percent of its defensive snaps in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Interestingly enough, the unit's effectiveness gradually declined over the past two years, finishing fifth and eighth in total defense."

 

I'd have to say every Bills fan in the world was expecting this years Bills to not only lead the league in sacks, and not only be the #1 defense in the league. But they expected greatness, as in 85 bears or 2000 Ravens greatness.

 

So since you are putting enough effort in.

 

 

second game. Brand new owners coaching staff having had the previous HC walk off in a huff.

 

Everyone was hittin the pipe after Colts.

Your point about how the Bills played the Pats the second time unfurls any reasoning that Rex cant make a adjustments or scheme is to blame.

 

My only question is why we dont play every team like the 2nd Pats game.

 

Its the players, and the learning curve

Great question because I have been asking that all year, and I also agree in asking why hasn't this years Buffalo Bills defense played all year like they did against the Patriots like in that 2nd game.

 

 

I disagree its the players or any learning curve. In that second game against the Patriots in week 11 Rex Ryan went back to his old ways of getting pressure on the QB 50% of the defensive pass plays, and it worked so very effectively!!

 

So why on earth did Ryan only apply pressure to 9.8 % of Brady's drop backs in that first game? Thus allowing Tom Brady to set a Bills franchise worst 466 yards passing. If you can dig up the stats for all rest of the games this season you would find similar percentages to the 9.8% of barely getting any pressure at all on the opposing QB. This has a disastrous effect on the outcome of the game as it allows even the worst QB's time needed to make plays.

 

Currently the Bills are 27th in defensive hurries! Currently the Buffalo Bills are 30th in sacks for 111 yards lost out of 850 defensive snaps! How freaking pathetic is that stat!

 

It really is simple math that the 2015 Buffalo Bills simply aren't scheming to get pressure on the QB, because when they do they are very effective at it, Kinda why Marcel Dareus has been complaining about how he is being utilized in this years scheme since training camp!

 

Its not the players, its not the injuries, its 100% the scheme!

[Dr. K]

 

 

Apparently you are hell bent on driving home the Sacks statistics and didn't actually read what I wrote. Let me ask you this, who was the #1 "total defense" last year and where did they rank in Sacks? Oh, it was Seattle and they ranked 20th in Sacks.

 

If you read what I wrote to you, looking at Sacks isn't an end all be all to determining how good or bad a defense is. Is this years defense as good as last years? No. I said that. Is this years defense as bad as you keep stating with the "total defense" stat? IMO, no they aren't. I'll say it again, total defense is just total yards given up. That, IMO, isn't a very good indicator of how good or bad a defense is. If Team A has a bad offense and therefore sees more plays or drives against than Team B whose offense can sustain longer drives and their defense doesn't see as many drives against, can you honestly just look at Total Yards Against(Total Defense) and determine who the better defense is? It's a little more complicated than that.

 

According to Total Defense, Dallas is ranked 9th. Do you really think Dallas is the 9th ranked defense? Advanced statistics say they give up a higher percentage of scoring drives than the Bills do. They also have less yards total because they've had 40 less plays and 20 less drives against than the Bills defense. That's almost a whole games worth of plays/drives! Their average drive yardage is 2 yards more than the Bills defense. If you add 20 more drives with their average yards per drive to equal what the Bills defense has seen, their "Total Defense" would be 24th in the league.

 

Like I said, this years defense, IMO, is somewhere between 11-15. Not as good as last years and definitely disappointing in terms of expectations.

The be all and end all of defense is points given up. The Bills are giving up almost a touchdown more per game than last year, even though their offense is better and not turning the ball over at a greater rate. Maybe the time of possession stats would better if the defense could stop somebody and get off the field. Maybe the Bills would face fewer drives if they didn't let their opponents score so readily.

[NorthBuffaloKid]

In a nutshell, more time is needed.

 

That being said, it doesn't seem as if Rex has learned from his time in NY. Poor clock management. Poor play challenges. Confusion on the field.These were the knocks he took there and continue to take now.

 

He should take this off season on those and the current penalty crisis and figure it out.

 

If he can't do that, he's not the coach that everyone thinks he is.

[Nihilarian]

For all those Bills fans out there still intent on defending this years defense...

 

"Say what you will for Rex Ryan, but you’ve never been able to say he doesn’t know how to coach an NFL defense. At least not until this year."

 

This year, Ryan’s first season as head coach of the Bills, his defense has taken an enormous step backward. And in a season when Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor has emerged as one of the pleasant surprises in the NFL, Ryan’s defense is the reason the Bills won’t make the playoffs.

 

"When you look at the statistics, it’s stunning how much worse the defense Ryan coaches this year is than the defense he inherited from last year:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/12/16/bills-defense-has-taken-a-big-step-back-under-rex-ryan/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs

[The Big Cat]

For all those Bills fans out there still intent on defending this years defense...

 

"Say what you will for Rex Ryan, but you’ve never been able to say he doesn’t know how to coach an NFL defense. At least not until this year."

 

This year, Ryan’s first season as head coach of the Bills, his defense has taken an enormous step backward. And in a season when Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor has emerged as one of the pleasant surprises in the NFL, Ryan’s defense is the reason the Bills won’t make the playoffs.

 

"When you look at the statistics, it’s stunning how much worse the defense Ryan coaches this year is than the defense he inherited from last year:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/12/16/bills-defense-has-taken-a-big-step-back-under-rex-ryan/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs

 

Um...the whole argument is whether the defense is mediocre because of his coaching or because of external factors. Just because you found somebody on PFT (lol) that says it's all on him, that does virtually nothing to move the needle.

Edited December 18, 2015 by The Big Cat

[26CornerBlitz]

@billsupdates

Analysis: Why @BuffaloBills GM Doug Whaley doesn't deserve to take fall for Rex Ryan's failures http://ow.ly/W32qw

[GG]

For all those Bills fans out there still intent on defending this years defense...

 

"Say what you will for Rex Ryan, but you’ve never been able to say he doesn’t know how to coach an NFL defense. At least not until this year."

 

This year, Ryan’s first season as head coach of the Bills, his defense has taken an enormous step backward. And in a season when Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor has emerged as one of the pleasant surprises in the NFL, Ryan’s defense is the reason the Bills won’t make the playoffs.

 

"When you look at the statistics, it’s stunning how much worse the defense Ryan coaches this year is than the defense he inherited from last year:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/12/16/bills-defense-has-taken-a-big-step-back-under-rex-ryan/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs

 

And when you examine the stats deeper, one thing clearly stands out is that Bills have given up many more big play passing TDs than they did last year. Those handful of plays are the difference between last year and this year. Further, those big passing plays resulted from a defensive breakdown or miscommunication, which clearly shows that Bills defense hasn't fully picked up Rex's scheme.

 

So the question to ask is whether you think that the defense will continue to make the same mistakes next year in year two of that scheme?

[Manther]

Im really interested in why he went back after the NE game. That was the freaking blueprint. That was how we want to play.. i thought

Agreed! Maybe Rex didn't want to tip his hand until the playoffs? Playoffs, playoffs?!

I was merely throwing out the 20th in defensive yards because that is a standard (by yards) that most people go by, or otherwise it wouldn't be one of the very first stats you see when you go to a football website and click on team stats.

 

 

And you seem intent on disregarding the fact that this years Buffalo Bills went from 1st in sacks to near last in sacks at 30th, and that is about the most important stat that most defensive minded coaches care about. Because with that stat comes other stats like QB hits, hurries, pressures. If your defense can't manage to get pressure on the opposing QB all the other defensive stats are basically irrelevant in my view.

 

Rex Ryan was noted for his past blitzing schemes, http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000213665/article/rex-ryans-new-york-jets-returning-to-blitzhappy-ways-in-2013 Great article from 2013 on how Rex Ryan will return to what made his 2009-2010 defenses so good!

 

"The bodacious defensive guru has promised to restore the aggressive mentality that carried Gang Green to consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances in the 2009 and '10 campaigns. During those seasons, Ryan acted as the defensive play caller for units that finished first and third, respectively, in total defense. He utilized blitz-heavy tactics with his initial teams to create chaos for quarterbacks in the pocket, while limiting available seams and creases for runners in the ground game."

 

"Looking at the numbers from Ryan's stint as the defensive play caller, it's apparent that he lives and dies with blitz pressure. He called blitzes on 50 percent of the Jets' defensive snaps during that two-year span, including an astonishing 52.4 percent blitz rate in 2009. Those percentages blow away theJets' blitz frequency over the past two seasons, under the direction of former defensive coordinator Mike Pettine: New York blitzed 32.8 and 34 percent of its defensive snaps in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Interestingly enough, the unit's effectiveness gradually declined over the past two years, finishing fifth and eighth in total defense."

 

I'd have to say every Bills fan in the world was expecting this years Bills to not only lead the league in sacks, and not only be the #1 defense in the league. But they expected greatness, as in 85 bears or 2000 Ravens greatness.

 

Great question because I have been asking that all year, and I also agree in asking why hasn't this years Buffalo Bills defense played all year like they did against the Patriots like in that 2nd game.

 

 

I disagree its the players or any learning curve. In that second game against the Patriots in week 11 Rex Ryan went back to his old ways of getting pressure on the QB 50% of the defensive pass plays, and it worked so very effectively!!

 

So why on earth did Ryan only apply pressure to 9.8 % of Brady's drop backs in that first game? Thus allowing Tom Brady to set a Bills franchise worst 466 yards passing. If you can dig up the stats for all rest of the games this season you would find similar percentages to the 9.8% of barely getting any pressure at all on the opposing QB. This has a disastrous effect on the outcome of the game as it allows even the worst QB's time needed to make plays.

 

Currently the Bills are 27th in defensive hurries! Currently the Buffalo Bills are 30th in sacks for 111 yards lost out of 850 defensive snaps! How freaking pathetic is that stat!

 

It really is simple math that the 2015 Buffalo Bills simply aren't scheming to get pressure on the QB, because when they do they are very effective at it, Kinda why Marcel Dareus has been complaining about how he is being utilized in this years scheme since training camp!

 

Its not the players, its not the injuries, its 100% the scheme!

Yep!!

[Big Turk]

Same dilemma here. Teams don't win by constantly tearing it down and rebuidling. On the other hand, if we're convinced that Rex will never take us where we want to be, I'm not sure why we would want to keep him around even a minute after the season ends.

And yet Rex has won more road playoff games in his 2 AFC Championship game seasons with the Jets than the Bills have won in the history of their franchise...including one in Foxboro against Brady and Belichick

Edited December 18, 2015 by matter2003

[Fan in Chicago]

@billsupdates

Analysis: Why @BuffaloBills GM Doug Whaley doesn't deserve to take fall for Rex Ryan's failures http://ow.ly/W32qw

That is an excellent article. I have just one question which seems to have been answered by some here earlier - who hired Ryan ? If he was Whaley's choice, then for sure he has to take responsibility and accountability for that decision. If it was Pegulas', then Whaley gets a clean chit for doing a good job on building the roster. Its not for nothing that media opinion pins Bills as one of the biggest disappointments of this season.

[YoloinOhio]

That is an excellent article. I have just one question which seems to have been answered by some here earlier - who hired Ryan ? If he was Whaley's choice, then for sure he has to take responsibility and accountability for that decision. If it was Pegulas', then Whaley gets a clean chit for doing a good job on building the roster. Its not for nothing that media opinion pins Bills as one of the biggest disappointments of this season.

i haven't heard that here. They were painted before the season as a team without an established QB who would be in the mix but not quite make the playoffs. That's exactly where they landed - surprising no one. Even the fans aren't surprised - just disappointed and impatient.

 

The biggest disappointments this seaso I have heard from the media - Ravens, Colts, Chargers, Eagles, Vikings

Edited December 18, 2015 by YoloinOhio

[Fan in Chicago]

i haven't heard that here. They were painted before the season as a team without an established QB who would be in the mix but not quite make the playoffs. That's exactly where they landed - surprising no one. Even the fans aren't surprised - just disappointed and impatient.

The biggest disappointments this seaso I have heard from the media - Ravens, Colts, Chargers, Eagles, Vikings

You are on top of the media much more so than me but here are a couple

http://espn.go.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/21679/rex-ryan-doug-whaley-deserve-blame-after-bills-disappoint-again

 

http://bills.buffalonews.com/2015/12/17/bn-blitz-podcast-dec-17-examining-bills-disappointing-season-changes-ahead/

[boater]

... Hey, Rex was brought in here because he was the man who had the secret formula for beating Belichick and Brady....

Citation please, as to the secret formula being the key reason for the Rex hire. You have factual knowledge of the Rex hire decision criteria?

 

Media citation.. not one of these under-appreciated auto's

Edited December 18, 2015 by boater

[Agent 91]

Agreed! Maybe Rex didn't want to tip his hand until the playoffs? Playoffs, playoffs?!

Yep!!

That has to be it. Playoffs. Haha

[Buffalo Barbarian]

The Pegulas use consultants all the time. They look for outside input. I would not be surprised if they already have one or more "secret czars" evaluating the team. As much as I place much of the season's failings on Rex, Terry and Kim have probably been told dumping him now is a bad look.

 

not being snarky; what consultants ?

[Nihilarian]

 

And when you examine the stats deeper, one thing clearly stands out is that Bills have given up many more big play passing TDs than they did last year. Those handful of plays are the difference between last year and this year. Further, those big passing plays resulted from a defensive breakdown or miscommunication, which clearly shows that Bills defense hasn't fully picked up Rex's scheme.

 

So the question to ask is whether you think that the defense will continue to make the same mistakes next year in year two of that scheme?

I don't know if that bolded part is true. It is my contention that because there is little or no pressure on the opposing QB they are able to sit back and pick the Bills defensive secondary apart. Meaning they can easily step up in the pocket after a 5 to 7 step drop to throw those deep passes because they have the time to do so.

 

What I saw this year was Ron Darby, and Gilmore playing great despite being hung out to dry with no pass rush. What I didn't see was opposing receivers wide open because of constant blown coverage's, and in fact I saw the opposite with the Bills players still making plays. I can only imagine how freaking great that Bills secondary could have been this year with a top five pass rush.

 

 

To answer the question, I can only hope that the Pegula's ask Ryan to fire his entire defensive staff, and when he refuses. By those grounds they can fire him, and then not pay him for his remaining contract citing insubordination. Then hire someone who will actually utilize the players on the roster for which they were purposely brought in, and given top money to do.

 

I so want the Bills to hire a head coach that doesn't call the call the offensive or defensive plays or set up the game plans for either, like Gailey, Ryan have done. Or even like Marrone with his helping his good buddy Danny Crossman the special teams coach all year. Probably why the special teams sucked so bad this year because St Doug isn't here holding his hand, and probably why the Bills offense stunk under Maroon because the novice running the offense got very little help.

 

Simply put the Buffalo Bills need to hire a man who is smart enough to beat Bill Belichick, Tom Brady on a consistent basis.

[papazoid]

Whaley is going to voluntarily leave.

 

the Pegulas have already tipped their hand they lack confidence in whaley as evidenced of trying hire Bill Polian.

 

there is a "power" issue, where the GM did not really hire the head coach , who for sure does NOT report to the GM.

 

the long term core of players signed thru 2018 is mostly mentally challenged (dareus, hughes, aaron Williams, McCoy, felton are all IDIOTS & clay).

 

the Bills have serious Cap issues going forward. already projected 2016 at negative $2.5 mil without Glenn, Incognito & Gilmore signed to long term deals.

 

Whaley would be much better off taking a new job..... like say Cleveland.

[Gray Beard]

Whaley is going to voluntarily leave.

 

the Pegulas have already tipped their hand they lack confidence in whaley as evidenced of trying hire Bill Polian.

 

there is a "power" issue, where the GM did not really hire the head coach , who for sure does NOT report to the GM.

 

the long term core of players signed thru 2018 is mostly mentally challenged (dareus, hughes, aaron Williams, McCoy, felton are all IDIOTS & clay).

 

the Bills have serious Cap issues going forward. already projected 2016 at negative $2.5 mil without Glenn, Incognito & Gilmore signed to long term deals.

 

Whaley would be much better off taking a new job..... like say Cleveland.

This may turn out to be a good scenario. Rex isn't going anywhere with his contract. They have no financial stake in Whaley going forward. If they can hire a POWERFUL GM, then maybe Rex can be held accountable and the situation could improve.

[Dr. K]

This may turn out to be a good scenario. Rex isn't going anywhere with his contract. They have no financial stake in Whaley going forward. If they can hire a POWERFUL GM, then maybe Rex can be held accountable and the situation could improve.

Just my opinion, but firing Whaley and keeping Rex would be disastrous. Brain dead. One of the worst moves ever.

 

On the other hand, I would not be surprised if Whaley leaves on his own for a better situation. He's hog tied with having no power over Rex and he can probably see the writing on the wall as well as anyone. I expect him to be a long time successful GM, with titles on his record, somewhere, if not here.

Edited December 19, 2015 by Dr. K