I like Sammy, but wow Mack looks like the better player

[mannc]

 

But there's a reason for that. Yes some of it has to do with the Giants' superior QB, but the reason they throw to OBJ all the time is because it pays dividends. He gets open and makes great catches. Face it, he's already in the very top tier with Dez, A Brown and J Jones and that is unlikely to change.

 

No one thinks Sammy sucks, but it's a little hard to swallow when they spent 3 picks on a WR with 3 big WR names on the board (and of course it turns out one of the other two is already an All Pro). It's not like OBJ is a guy no one saw coming; there was no reason to believe Watkins was that superior a player to Evans or OBJ that he was worth those extra picks. It's another lesson in why trading up in the first round is usually a mistake.

 

It won't do us much good to whine about it for the next ten years, but it sure is frustrating watching the Bills FO make the same mistakes time after time.

Perfect summary of the situation.

[thebandit27]

Seems like a lot of posters are sold on the assumption that the only things holding Watkins back are out of his control. QB play, play calling, coaching, targets, etc. I'm not sold. The picture of who he is is coming into focus and it's very good, but not as great as some here are espousing. He is excellent when against one on one coverage as few CBs can handle him alone. He has great body control and speed. But he does not have the elite ability to beat double coverage if he's the focus of it. I've seen him beat double coverage when the safety is late - and that's a nod to his speed - but if the safety is there in time, Watkins isn't making a play. That is my concern with him getting more targets. More targets equals more attention from defenses and that takes him out of the game with double coverages. What I'd like to see the Bills do is find another WR who is a deep threat and also requires double coverage.* Watkins' stats would explode. Then they need to find a shifty slot receiver to open the middle of the field for Clay, too. Those two additions along with the OL are my offensive priorities if I'm Whaley.

 

*I know Harvin was supposed to be that guy this season. The fact that Whaley and Rex took such a big risk with a problem player like him points to the importance they place on having another deep threat.

 

I don't agree with that assessment.

 

He was regularly doubled in the KC game, and had no trouble beating both guys to the ball. His TD catches were perfect examples of simply beating 2 guys...no lateness involved.

 

I liken the difference in Sammy and OBJ's numbers to hockey--in general, the team that gets more pucks to the net is going to score more often, since shooting percentage doesn't vary much from team-to-team (or player-to-player for that matter). The numbers bare it out, really: when Sammy gets the targets, he produces.

 

The simplest way to account for the difference is how much more the Giants throw the ball than the Bills (which is significant), and how much higher a percentage of those throws go to OBJ vs. Watkins.

[davspo]

Anyone who seriously thinks that Sammy is as good as a receiver as OBJ is simply not being objective. It's not necessarily a slam on the pick, the organization or Sammy (who is good, but not great and certainly not as good as OBJ), it's just the truth. You can site the quarterback situation, the coaching, ect, but facts are facts, pure and simple. OBJ does it all. He goes over the middle, makes circus catches and is rarely, if ever, shut down. Give the guy some credit, he is that good!

[NOVABillsFan]

Someone actually called him a bust? This board never fails in its humor.

 

@ProFootballWire: NFL Wednesday morning one-liners - Sammy Watkins is off to the best start of any receiver in Bills history. https://t.co/0JEEXTLvus

well, maybe not exactly. But close enough. Not good enough/ not worth the move up ...

It's easy to simply say Sammy sucks. But I think there's more to the story than that. I'm happy with the pick. He was more of a sure thing than Beckham (and Beckham wasn't even going to be our choice, Ebron was), and we needed a #1.

 

The assumption was Also derived at by Dorkington

[dave mcbride]

Anyone who seriously thinks that Sammy is as good as a receiver as OBJ is simply not being objective. It's not necessarily a slam on the pick, the organization or Sammy (who is good, but not great and certainly not as good as OBJ), it's just the truth. You can site the quarterback situation, the coaching, ect, but facts are facts, pure and simple. OBJ does it all. He goes over the middle, makes circus catches and is rarely, if ever, shut down. Give the guy some credit, he is that good!

I think the stats bear that out, but I also think the stats are a bit deceiving. What is probably more important, though, is the fact that at mini-camp next season, Watkins will still be 22 years old.

[NOVABillsFan]

Anyone who seriously thinks that Sammy is as good as a receiver as OBJ is simply not being objective. It's not necessarily a slam on the pick, the organization or Sammy (who is good, but not great and certainly not as good as OBJ), it's just the truth. You can site the quarterback situation, the coaching, ect, but facts are facts, pure and simple. OBJ does it all. He goes over the middle, makes circus catches and is rarely, if ever, shut down. Give the guy some credit, he is that good!

Sammy doesn't goes over the middle, and make circus catches?

 

Maybe if he was utilized more efficiently we'd have a better idea if this is true or not. After the Pansy azz antics by OBJ before, during or after the game earlier this year he can go and purchase some ladies products.

[thebandit27]

Sammy doesn't goes over the middle, and make circus catches?

 

Maybe if he was utilized more efficiently we'd have a better idea if this is true or not. After the Pansy azz antics by OBJ before, during or after the game earlier this year he can go and purchase some ladies products.

 

Sammy most certainly goes over the middle, and does indeed make circus catches. Not seeing them replayed on Sportscenter over and over and over and over doesn't mean that they don't happen.

 

In fact, he did both on a single play that set up the game-winning FG in Detroit last year.

 

As many here like to say: the proof is in the numbers; when Sammy gets his targets, he produces as anyone would expect a bona fide #1 WR to produce.

[dave mcbride]

 

Sammy most certainly goes over the middle, and does indeed make circus catches. Not seeing them replayed on Sportscenter over and over and over and over doesn't mean that they don't happen.

 

In fact, he did both on a single play that set up the game-winning FG in Detroit last year.

 

As many here like to say: the proof is in the numbers; when Sammy gets his targets, he produces as anyone would expect a bona fide #1 WR to produce.

Another factor:

 

The Bills are 30th in the number of passing attempts (and 3rd in rushing attempts), and the Giants are 10th in passing attempts and 22nd in rushing attempts. Plus the Giants defense is 32nd in yards allowed, and the games are always shootouts. They've given up less than 20 points only twice this season -- 18 points once, and 10 points to the Bills (who should definitely have had 17 [bad call on Incognito] and arguably 24 if not for a shaky holding call).

 

The Giants have thrown it 500 times, and the Bills 392 times. The Giants throw it 27.6 percent more often than the Bills.

[thebandit27]

Another factor:

 

The Bills are 30th in the number of passing attempts (and 3rd in rushing attempts), and the Giants are 10th in passing attempts and 22nd in rushing attempts. Plus the Giants defense is 32nd in yards allowed, and the games are always shootouts. They've given up less than 20 points only twice this season -- 18 points once, and 10 points to the Bills (who should definitely have had 17 [bad call on Incognito] and arguably 24 if not for a shaky holding call).

 

The Giants have thrown it 500 times, and the Bills 392 times. The Giants throw it 27.6 percent more often than the Bills.

 

Agreed--the over-arching point is that context matters.

 

I'm fine if the general consensus is that Beckham is a better player; not sure I'd argue. The idea that Sammy is somehow under-performing,or not close to performing at the same clip when given the opportunities, is what bothers me.

[Maury Ballstein]

OBJ > Sammy and it is not even close

Anyone who seriously thinks that Sammy is as good as a receiver as OBJ is simply not being objective. It's not necessarily a slam on the pick, the organization or Sammy (who is good, but not great and certainly not as good as OBJ), it's just the truth. You can site the quarterback situation, the coaching, ect, but facts are facts, pure and simple. OBJ does it all. He goes over the middle, makes circus catches and is rarely, if ever, shut down. Give the guy some credit, he is that good!

He does it all. Except for run block as well as others. Giants on fire with 6-7 record led by the almighy Beckham.

 

Hell of an offensive weapon, his draftmates Evans and Watkins bring more to the run game though.

[reddogblitz]

We take another talented wide out without selling the farm to do it. We could have still gotten a WR without losing future picks. That's where my QB arguement comes into play. We need a complete team. Obviously we don't have that. The results of this season proved that. We were in no position to lose draft picks. If you have Tom Brady etc. you can afford that. We don't have that so we needed to build a complete team. Losing picks for a WR in a deep draft class was absurb. I never said we should stop "trying to get good players". I didn't like the Sammy trade for that very reason. It meant that we got fewer good players. Also Sammy got his 10 targets last week. Tyrod locked in on him, and it was detrimental to the offense.

 

Thanks for your well written response. I'm still going to disagree with you though. You win with great players, not more pretty good players. At the time we had a whole team of pretty good guys or worse. We tried that strategy through the Jauron and Gailey years with no success.

 

Sammy with his elite skills has had a definite impact on the bottom line (Wins) that a lesser player simply couldn't do. The Minnesota game last year immediately comes to mind.

 

I believe it to have been a good trade that has payed off for us.

 

True, we might have taken Eric Ebron as projected and another so-so player in 2015. So in terms of quantity we would been ahead, but perhaps not in quality.

 

I like our approach now of trying to get some horses we can hang our hat on like Sammy, LeSean, and Clay.

Edited December 16, 2015 by reddogblitz

[dave mcbride]

 

Thanks for your well written response. I'm still going to disagree with you though. You win with great players, not more pretty good players. At the time we had a whole team of pretty good guys or worse. We tried that strategy through the Jauron and Gailey years with no success.

 

Sammy with his elite skills has had a definite impact on the bottom line (Wins) that a lesser player simply couldn't do. The Minnesota game last year immediately comes to mind.

 

I believe it to have been a good trade that has payed off for us.

 

True, we might have taken Eric Ebron as projected and another so-so player in 2015. So in terms of quantity we would been ahead, but perhaps on it quality.

 

I like our approach now of trying to get some horses we can hang our hat on like Sammy, LeSean, and Clay.

You bring up a good point. From everything I've read, if we had stayed put, we would have taken Ebron. I'll take Sammy any day over Ebron and the 19th selection of the 2015 draft. Ebron is mediocre - Brandon Pettigrew and Ricky Dudley redux. One could argue that we shouldn't have taken Ebron but rather Beckham, but that's not reality. They would have taken the guy they wanted more -- Ebron.

[Garranimal]

 

Agreed--the over-arching point is that context matters.

 

I'm fine if the general consensus is that Beckham is a better player; not sure I'd argue. The idea that Sammy is somehow under-performing,or not close to performing at the same clip when given the opportunities, is what bothers me.

Agree completely. I know I have stated this very same point before and I am going to be lazy and not look up the stats again, but I believe Watkins is having a similar problem that Eric Moulds had. Until Moulds got paired with a QB (Flutie) who was willing to throw it (questionably perhaps) on faith in his direction and trust him to make a play, his numbers were not impressive. As i remember the story, Moulds and Flutie developed a trust in one another through playing basketball together, which is heavily dependent upon passing and anticipation of players getting to spot as the pass is made. I always thought that Flutie played QB with a point-guard mentality.

 

Eli does this very thing with OBJ and has his entire career (David Tyree anyone?). The up-side of a gambling mentality is that when you win, its spectacular, the down side is that Eli has had periods of excessive interceptions.

[thebandit27]

Agree completely. I know I have stated this very same point before and I am going to be lazy and not look up the stats again, but I believe Watkins is having a similar problem that Eric Moulds had. Until Moulds got paired with a QB (Flutie) who was willing to throw it (questionably perhaps) on faith in his direction and trust him to make a play, his numbers were not impressive. As i remember the story, Moulds and Flutie developed a trust in one another through playing basketball together, which is heavily dependent upon passing and anticipation of players getting to spot as the pass is made. I always thought that Flutie played QB with a point-guard mentality.

 

Eli does this very thing with OBJ and has his entire career (David Tyree anyone?). The up-side of a gambling mentality is that when you win, its spectacular, the down side is that Eli has had periods of excessive interceptions.

 

You do remember correctly re: Flutie and Moulds.

[truth on hold]

Did anybody see the 2nd half drops Sammy made against eagles? Revese that went no where? Or lack of adjustment coming back to the QB when the pocket broke down? How can anyone possibly say with more targets his performance is on par with OBJs? he's not getting more targets because hes simply not on the same level.

Edited December 16, 2015 by JTSP

[BuffaloMatt]

Sammy is great and it is a shame that so many "fans" have buyer's remorse. Most of you OBJ proponents are Monday morning QBs. Easy decision once you see him play with a top tier QB in. There are many great players that have not been selected by the Bills. No draft is perfect. Also, in my opinion OBJ #'s in Buffalo would be similar to Sammy's #s.

Clear as day ODB is better, running routes, getting separation, consistently catching the ball, and making spectacular catches Watkins isnt....doesn't matter who the QB is to see those things. IMO Beckham is the best player in the league right now. As I said in a different thread, Sammy is more like a bigger Lee Evans, than a smaller Julio Jones. He gets some first half strikes, but after defenses adjust to his speed, he becomes largely invisible...doesn't have the route running ability to get separation, running ability to turn short routes and reverses into big gains, nor the vertical to win jump balls. Against eagles also had some crucial drops.

He's good and can help win games....as Lee Evans was...but to compare him to OBD and a handful of other trule elite WRs is kinda silly.

Old Dirty Bastard? Didn't know Sammy Rapped.

Edited December 16, 2015 by BuffaloMatt

[BarleyNY]

I don't agree with that assessment.

 

He was regularly doubled in the KC game, and had no trouble beating both guys to the ball. His TD catches were perfect examples of simply beating 2 guys...no lateness involved.

 

I liken the difference in Sammy and OBJ's numbers to hockey--in general, the team that gets more pucks to the net is going to score more often, since shooting percentage doesn't vary much from team-to-team (or player-to-player for that matter). The numbers bare it out, really: when Sammy gets the targets, he produces.

 

The simplest way to account for the difference is how much more the Giants throw the ball than the Bills (which is significant), and how much higher a percentage of those throws go to OBJ vs. Watkins.

Another poster mentioned the doubles in the KC game in another thread so I rewatched it. It's actually a big part of how my opinion formed. On all but one of Watkins' big first half plays the safety was late. Again, Watkins' speed was a big part of why. On the other play the safety was shielded by the CB and couldn't get around him. In the second half KC adjusted by shifting the safety over Watkins and playing the CB tight. That was when Watkins was done for the night.

 

As for extrapolating Watkins's numbers, it might be simple and make you feel good about him but it isn't realistic. A lot would change if his targets doubled. Wear and tear over a game and the season are much different - and he's had issues at the current level. Defensive game planning would key on him more too, which is huge. But, as I said previously, I do think the Bills should get him more involved and target him more to see what he can do. Maybe he continues to improve; he's only in his second year. But maybe he doesn't so until he proves he can carry more of the offensive load with similar averages, he's not nearly in the same class as WRs like Beckham.

[dave mcbride]

Since the bye -- which is when the complaints about the lack of targets and the misuse of him came to a head -- Watkins has done as follows in 6 games:

 

28 receptions for 569 yards and 5 TDs.

 

Prorated over a season, that's 75 catches for 1,517 yards, 20.2 yards per catch, and 13 TDs.

 

How about we use the post-injury, the Bills-get-an-effing-clue-about-how-to-utilize-him version of Watkins to judge him going forward? Those are spectacular numbers.

Did anybody see the 2nd half drops Sammy made against eagles? Revese that went no where? Or lack of adjustment coming back to the QB when the pocket broke down? How can anyone possibly say with more targets his performance is on par with OBJs? he's not getting more targets because hes simply not on the same level.

He's been targeted a lot since the bye, and has produced like Beckham has. And one of those drops didn't count because there was a holding penalty against the Bills.

Agree completely. I know I have stated this very same point before and I am going to be lazy and not look up the stats again, but I believe Watkins is having a similar problem that Eric Moulds had. Until Moulds got paired with a QB (Flutie) who was willing to throw it (questionably perhaps) on faith in his direction and trust him to make a play, his numbers were not impressive. As i remember the story, Moulds and Flutie developed a trust in one another through playing basketball together, which is heavily dependent upon passing and anticipation of players getting to spot as the pass is made. I always thought that Flutie played QB with a point-guard mentality.

 

Eli does this very thing with OBJ and has his entire career (David Tyree anyone?). The up-side of a gambling mentality is that when you win, its spectacular, the down side is that Eli has had periods of excessive interceptions.

excellent post.

Edited December 16, 2015 by dave mcbride

[enlightener]

Offense vs defense. An apple to oranges comparisson.

 

FWIW - Look at Sammys #'s then look at who he's had at QB for the majority of the past 2 seasons.

1. Kyle "I quit" Orton
2. The inexperienced/developing Tyrod Taylor (who seems to forget he's on the field when it matters)

 

WRT OBJ. he's a whining primadonna who happens to have a SB champ at QB.

how does the qb make sammy drop every crossing pattern that hits him in the hands? also does the qb make sammy fall down immediately after the catch? And does the QB stop him from going up in traffic to snatch or high point a ball? Luckily TT throws nearly a perfect deep ball or sammy would have 2 tds and about 30 catches this year...doubt me? hes last in the league at yac among starters....hard to get yac when youll only catch a pass dropping out of bounds or falling into the endzone...(hes good at those though)

[dave mcbride]

how does the qb make sammy drop every crossing pattern that hits him in the hands? also does the qb make sammy fall down immediately after the catch? And does the QB stop him from going up in traffic to snatch or high point a ball? Luckily TT throws nearly a perfect deep ball or sammy would have 2 tds and about 30 catches this year...doubt me? hes last in the league at yac among starters....hard to get yac when youll only catch a pass dropping out of bounds or falling into the endzone...(hes good at those though)

Geez. You're just making crap up.