Spotrac Manage Roster Tool - 2016 Bills Salary Cap

[thebandit27]

Lawson is too expensive, but if there is a way to restructure him at a reasonable cost he should be brought back. I doubt anyone else would sign him at the level he will cost the Bills. I sure hope AW can come back and be close to his pre injury level, replacing him will be difficult. It will be expensive to replace Mario with anyone anywhere near his talent level.

 

I think Lawson is a prime candidate for a pay cut. He most likely knows that his open-market value isn't more than $2M-$2.5M, so I don't think it'll be hard to convince him to take a $1M pay cut, which would put him at $2.4M this year. He has no guaranteed money left on his deal that he hasn't received, and it's unlikely he'd get much of that in a new contract on the open market, so he's got no incentive to play hard-ball.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I think Lawson is a prime candidate for a pay cut. He most likely knows that his open-market value isn't more than $2M-$2.5M, so I don't think it'll be hard to convince him to take a $1M pay cut, which would put him at $2.4M this year. He has no guaranteed money left on his deal that he hasn't received, and it's unlikely he'd get much of that in a new contract on the open market, so he's got no incentive to play hard-ball.

That crossed my mind as well. It feels like they will keep him around but his cap hit is too big for the player. A pay cut makes sense. It probably makes sense for Leo as well.

[thebandit27]

That crossed my mind as well. It feels like they will keep him around but his cap hit is too big for the player. A pay cut makes sense. It probably makes sense for Leo as well.

 

Yep...I think Leo is a lock for a pay cut. Not sure how much they should expect, but I don't think it's crazy to ask him to drop his $4.9M cap number down to, say, $2.9M

[YoloinOhio]

Not sure if already discussed

 

@mikerodak

Tyrod Taylor's cap number this season has increased from $1.3M to $3.3M based on an escalator and how his '16 playtime incentive is treated.

 

Bills center Eric Wood also hit an escalator that increases his 2016 cap number by $650k. Slight dip in Bills' cap room.

Edited February 17, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[Manther]

 

Just restructure Clay. Well first he has to agree to restructure.

Maybe you don't understand some restructures? Clay will not get any less money, just more money ASAP instead of down the road. Who wouldn't want that? For many reasons it's a great idea with no down side. So, when you try to argue people may listen more if you dont reach for your arguments or talk about what you may or may not understand. There is NO reason Clay wouldn't restructure. And, it was probably discussed last year when he negotiated the contract.

[machine gun kelly]

Spotrac now has a new roster management tool that is extremely useful when looking at next year's cap situation.

 

Try it yourself:

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tools/roster/buffalo-bills/

 

Here's what I did:

 

Released

 

Mario Williams

Kyle Williams

Aaron Williams (retirement)

Leodis McKelvin

Manny Lawson

Dan Carpenter

Boobie Dixon

 

Savings against the cap - $32.675M

 

Assuming the cap will be $150M (in actuality it'll be a bit higher), that puts the team at $33M under the cap. I didn't want to touch Clay's deal, as leaving it alone provides a lot more space down the road.

 

Re-sign

 

Cordy Glenn - 5 years, $35M with $11M gtd (same contract as Jared Veldheer got from Arizona; neither has made the pro bowl, but both are bona fide starting LTs). Assume cap hit of $8M in year 1.

Richie Incognito - 5 years, $25M with $8M gtd (close to Clint Boling's deal in Cincinnati; less money due to age). Assume cap hit of $5M in year 1.

Stephon Gilmore - 5 years, $55M with $30M gtd (more than Byron Maxwell, less than Joe Haden). Assume $11M cap hit in year 1 (same as his rookie contract option year cap hit).

 

Do Not Re-sign

 

Nigel Bradham - down year and not a great fit for this defense

Alex Carrington - too many injuries and too many guys that can play his role; also getting Jarius Wynn back from injury makes him expendable

 

The above leaves the Bills $20M under the cap to add some pieces in FA.

 

Thoughts?

 

If you lose Mario, do you really want to risk taking away Kyle too? I know he is 33, but that seems too risky. Also, a 5 year deal for Incognito at 32. I would say a 3 year deal with a decent amt guaranteed. Otherwise, we're thinking alike in terms of releases.

[BuffaloBillsForever]

Maybe you don't understand some restructures? Clay will not get any less money, just more money ASAP instead of down the road. Who wouldn't want that? For many reasons it's a great idea with no down side. So, when you try to argue people may listen more if you dont reach for your arguments or talk about what you may or may not understand. There is NO reason Clay wouldn't restructure. And, it was probably discussed last year when he negotiated the contract.

 

Actually it is YOU that doesn't understand restructures. By saying there is no down side is simply not true. You are just like Deranged Rhino that thinks there are no ramifications to being "fluid" or "flexible" with the cap. It's because you don't understand how the cap works.

 

For example by turning Clay's roster bonus into a signing bonus it would turn his 2016 13.5M cap hit to 6M. That's great but you are only deferring the problem when you will have more pressing needs than signing Glenn and Incognito in the coming years and putting INCREDIBLE amount of potential dead money in the timetable when you have to lock up a franchise QB.

 

For example if there is a restructure. From 2017-2019 his cap hit will go from 6.5M to 9M and his dead money would turn into 19.5M, 13.5, 9M and 4.5M respectively.

 

If they don't restructure you take his 13.5M hit in 2016 and his cap hits forward are 6.5M each season and the dead money is 6M, 4M and 2M.

 

The dead money issue IS HUGE considering Clay is a major injury concern who can't put up a healthy year of football. Remember Miami's doctors don't think his knees will make it through this contract. The dead money would have MAJOR ramifications if this is the case.

 

Also take into consideration putting the extra cap hits in the future when you have a franchise QB, Gilmore and Watkins signings. The 2.5M matters a lot.

 

It is not in the best interest of the Bills to restructure Clay's contract.

Edited February 18, 2016 by BuffaloBillsForever

[thebandit27]

 

If you lose Mario, do you really want to risk taking away Kyle too? I know he is 33, but that seems too risky. Also, a 5 year deal for Incognito at 32. I would say a 3 year deal with a decent amt guaranteed. Otherwise, we're thinking alike in terms of releases.

 

I've since reconsidered Richie's deal (remember that the post you're responding to was 2 months ago)...I think the best course of action would be to give him a 2-year deal worth $7.5M, but make it fully-guaranteed. Cap hits of $3M this year and $4.5M next year.

 

As to Kyle, I don't see a huge risk. He only played 5 games last year, and I don't believe he's a fit in a 2-gap scheme. My move would be to trade him for a mid-round pick to a team like Detroit that has plenty of cap space and needs a 1-gap DT to execute their system.

 

Actually it is YOU that doesn't understand restructures. By saying there is no down side is simply not true. You are just like Deranged Rhino that thinks there are no ramifications to being "fluid" or "flexible" with the cap. It's because you don't understand how the cap works.

 

For example by turning Clay's roster bonus into a signing bonus it would turn his 2016 13.5M cap hit to 6M. That's great but you are only deferring the problem when you will have more pressing needs than signing Glenn and Incognito in the coming years and putting INCREDIBLE amount of potential dead money in the timetable when you have to lock up a franchise QB.

 

For example if there is a restructure. From 2017-2019 his cap hit will go from 6.5M to 9M and his dead money would turn into 19.5M, 13.5, 9M and 4.5M respectively.

 

If they don't restructure you take his 13.5M hit in 2016 and his cap hits forward are 6.5M each season and the dead money is 6M, 4M and 2M.

 

The dead money issue IS HUGE considering Clay is a major injury concern who can't put up a healthy year of football. Remember Miami's doctors don't think his knees will make it through this contract. The dead money would have MAJOR ramifications if this is the case.

 

Also take into consideration putting the extra cap hits in the future when you have a franchise QB, Gilmore and Watkins signings. The 2.5M matters a lot.

 

I think part of the debate that hasn't been discussed is the fluidity of the cap itself. It reliably goes up by $10M per year, so I can see how someone might think that adding $2.5M to Clay's cap hit for the next 3 seasons is merely a drop in the bucket.

 

I'd ideally like to take the hit this season and have more room moving forward, but at the same time, it's not an all-or-nothing proposal. They do have the ability to convert a portion of the roster bonus if they want to mitigate how much they push forward. For example, they could choose to convert $2M to a signing bonus, get $1.5M in cap relief, and add only $0.5M to each cap hit.

[Manther]

 

Actually it is YOU that doesn't understand restructures. By saying there is no down side is simply not true. You are just like Deranged Rhino that thinks there are no ramifications to being "fluid" or "flexible" with the cap. It's because you don't understand how the cap works.

 

For example by turning Clay's roster bonus into a signing bonus it would turn his 2016 13.5M cap hit to 6M. That's great but you are only deferring the problem when you will have more pressing needs than signing Glenn and Incognito in the coming years and putting INCREDIBLE amount of potential dead money in the timetable when you have to lock up a franchise QB.

 

For example if there is a restructure. From 2017-2019 his cap hit will go from 6.5M to 9M and his dead money would turn into 19.5M, 13.5, 9M and 4.5M respectively.

 

If they don't restructure you take his 13.5M hit in 2016 and his cap hits forward are 6.5M each season and the dead money is 6M, 4M and 2M.

 

The dead money issue IS HUGE considering Clay is a major injury concern who can't put up a healthy year of football. Remember Miami's doctors don't think his knees will make it through this contract. The dead money would have MAJOR ramifications if this is the case.

 

Also take into consideration putting the extra cap hits in the future when you have a franchise QB, Gilmore and Watkins signings. The 2.5M matters a lot.

 

It is not in the best interest of the Bills to restructure Clay's contract.

I do NOT disagree with you about the downside to the Bills. I would like to put off restructuring Clay if we can and I think we can and think we should. Maybe I didn't explain myself well. I was referring there is no downside to Clay to restructure. I was only referencing the portion of your post that said you have to get Clay to agree to a restructure and believe there is no downside for Clay to restructure.

 

Please don't argue for the sake of arguing. Too many people on this board do! Also, please read the posts before answering. And, don't jump in with rage ready to answer angry. Enough people here do already.

[BuffaloBillsForever]

 

I've since reconsidered Richie's deal (remember that the post you're responding to was 2 months ago)...I think the best course of action would be to give him a 2-year deal worth $7.5M, but make it fully-guaranteed. Cap hits of $3M this year and $4.5M next year.

 

As to Kyle, I don't see a huge risk. He only played 5 games last year, and I don't believe he's a fit in a 2-gap scheme. My move would be to trade him for a mid-round pick to a team like Detroit that has plenty of cap space and needs a 1-gap DT to execute their system.

 

I think part of the debate that hasn't been discussed is the fluidity of the cap itself. It reliably goes up by $10M per year, so I can see how someone might think that adding $2.5M to Clay's cap hit for the next 3 seasons is merely a drop in the bucket.

 

I'd ideally like to take the hit this season and have more room moving forward, but at the same time, it's not an all-or-nothing proposal. They do have the ability to convert a portion of the roster bonus if they want to mitigate how much they push forward. For example, they could choose to convert $2M to a signing bonus, get $1.5M in cap relief, and add only $0.5M to each cap hit.

 

The salary cap goes up as will the salaries each year when players negotiate contracts. That 2.5M in free space remains relative.

[thebandit27]

 

The salary cap goes up as will the salaries each year when players negotiate contracts. That 2.5M in free space remains relative.

 

I never said otherwise...my point is that salaries don't inflate by 10% each year--it's closer to 2 or 3 percent.

 

By contrast, the cap goes up close to 10% on an annual basis. And like I said, there's absolutely no reason that they have to convert all $10M to a signing bonus.

 

I think you're painting the situation as much more dire than it actually is...of course, we'll see how they choose to play it.

[BuffaloBillsForever]

 

I never said otherwise...my point is that salaries don't inflate by 10% each year--it's closer to 2 or 3 percent.

 

By contrast, the cap goes up close to 10% on an annual basis. And like I said, there's absolutely no reason that they have to convert all $10M to a signing bonus.

 

I think you're painting the situation as much more dire than it actually is...of course, we'll see how they choose to play it.

 

Those numbers are not true as you can see in OverTheCaps article on The Real Salary Increases. When there is a large influx of free agents at a certain position the inflation for that position can go beyond the 8% increase in the cap but egregious deals like Suh's don't have as much of impact on the inflation of salaries across the board. I guess it's more of positional cyclical thing. Bad news for Bills is he predicts offensive lineman and CB's should see that inflation for contracts this year (Glenn and Gilmore).

 

One thing that is never talked about is raising the cap every year by 8% is a number that is not going to be sustainable IMO. I believe the NFL is peaking out.

Edited February 18, 2016 by BuffaloBillsForever

[thebandit27]

 

Those numbers are not true as you can see in OverTheCaps article on The Real Salary Increases. When there is a large influx of free agents at a certain position the inflation for that position can go beyond the 8% increase in the cap but egregious deals like Suh's don't have as much of impact onthe inflation of salaries across the board. I guess it's more of positional cyclical thing. Bad news for Bills is he predicts offensive lineman and CB's should see that inflation for contracts this year (Glenn and Gilmore).

 

One thing that is never talked about is raising the cap every year by 8% is a number that is not going to be sustainable IMO.

 

Sure...some positions will increase more than others--across the board, however, you're not looking at high numbers.

 

Gilmore's number has been in the $11M/year range since Maxwell signed last offseason, and I don't think anything is going to change that now. Glenn's number was probably a bit higher than Veldheer's before the Castonzo and Lane Johnson contracts went stupid, so that is an actual impact.

 

Regardless, you're looking at cap hits for Glenn and Incognito that will add up to the cap savings from Mario's release. Gilmore's deal will create $2M+ in space if they can get it done. Keeping their own is the priority this offseason, and it's quite simple to do; the only challenge will be who they part ways with in order to bring in the 1 or 2 FAs that they feel will help the team the most.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Sure...some positions will increase more than others--across the board, however, you're not looking at high numbers.

 

Gilmore's number has been in the $11M/year range since Maxwell signed last offseason, and I don't think anything is going to change that now. Glenn's number was probably a bit higher than Veldheer's before the Castonzo and Lane Johnson contracts went stupid, so that is an actual impact.

 

Regardless, you're looking at cap hits for Glenn and Incognito that will add up to the cap savings from Mario's release. Gilmore's deal will create $2M+ in space if they can get it done. Keeping their own is the priority this offseason, and it's quite simple to do; the only challenge will be who they part ways with in order to bring in the 1 or 2 FAs that they feel will help the team the most.

That is where the McKelvin & Lawson pay cuts come in. It is really easy to add $3M+ of cap space there. McKelvin has already said that he'd take one.

[Manther]

 

The salary cap goes up as will the salaries each year when players negotiate contracts. That 2.5M in free space remains relative.

Agreed

[thebandit27]

That is where the McKelvin & Lawson pay cuts come in. It is really easy to add $3M+ of cap space there. McKelvin has already said that he'd take one.

 

Yep...I also think (as we discussed) that Lawson will make more money here by taking a $1M pay cut than he will anywhere else by getting cut.

 

Then you've got a guy like Dixon, who I really like as a personality, that can easily be let go and gain another $1M.

[BuffaloBillsForever]

 

Sure...some positions will increase more than others--across the board, however, you're not looking at high numbers.

 

Gilmore's number has been in the $11M/year range since Maxwell signed last offseason, and I don't think anything is going to change that now. Glenn's number was probably a bit higher than Veldheer's before the Castonzo and Lane Johnson contracts went stupid, so that is an actual impact.

 

Regardless, you're looking at cap hits for Glenn and Incognito that will add up to the cap savings from Mario's release. Gilmore's deal will create $2M+ in space if they can get it done. Keeping their own is the priority this offseason, and it's quite simple to do; the only challenge will be who they part ways with in order to bring in the 1 or 2 FAs that they feel will help the team the most.

 

If I was Glenn's agent I would advise him that it's in his best interest to hit free agency. The Bills are in a pickle. Glenn can garner more than what the Bills are probably offering him right now and his agent knows it is very unlikely that the Bills can afford to franchise him (all of Marios cap savings is gone in that case). I would be telling him he has all the cards.

Edited February 18, 2016 by BuffaloBillsForever

[thebandit27]

 

If I was Glenn's agent I would advise him that it's in his best interest to hit free agency. The Bills are in a pickle. Glenn can garner more than what the Bills are probably offering him right now and his agent knows it is very unlikely that the Bills can afford to franchise him (all of Marios cap savings is gone in that case). If I was agent I would telling him he has all the cards.

 

You might tell him that--if I'm the Bills, I place the transition tag on him.

 

The only way he can get away in that circumstance is if a team structures a deal to have an enormous 1st-year cap hit.

 

Now, that scenario playing out is probably not realistic. His value will be what it will be--say, $12M/year. He'll get that whether it's here or elsewhere, along with whatever his guaranteed money is determined to be by the market.

 

If it does come down to him walking--regardless of the scenario, then you'll have to go out and sign Donald Penn, Kelvin Beachum, or Will Beatty--they aren't as good, but they're serviceable.

[BuffaloBillsForever]

 

You might tell him that--if I'm the Bills, I place the transition tag on him.

 

The only way he can get away in that circumstance is if a team structures a deal to have an enormous 1st-year cap hit.

 

Now, that scenario playing out is probably not realistic. His value will be what it will be--say, $12M/year. He'll get that whether it's here or elsewhere, along with whatever his guaranteed money is determined to be by the market.

 

If it does come down to him walking--regardless of the scenario, then you'll have to go out and sign Donald Penn, Kelvin Beachum, or Will Beatty--they aren't as good, but they're serviceable.

 

Yeah. The more I am looking into the Glenn scenarios, the more I feel he won't be on the team next year.

[thebandit27]

 

Yeah. The more I am looking into the Glenn scenarios, the more I feel he won't be on the team next year.

 

I don't see how you come to that conclusion.

 

He wants what he wants, and if we're willing to pay him, he'll sign.

 

He won't automatically get more than that simply because he's on the open market.