Deranged Rhino Posted February 19, 2016 Posted February 19, 2016 God bless you! You've saved the thread!
YoloinOhio Posted February 23, 2016 Posted February 23, 2016 @adamschefter NFL's salary cap now expected to rise again, possibly by another $2 million or so per team, per source....
26CornerBlitz Posted February 23, 2016 Posted February 23, 2016 Mike Ginnitti: Financial To-Dos for all 32 Teams (16:26)Mike Ginnitti, Co-Founder and Editor of Spotrac called in to The John Murphy Show to discuss the salary cap implications for the Bills and other teams around the NFL as free agency approaches.
thebandit27 Posted March 30, 2016 Author Posted March 30, 2016 Updating things with the Hankerson signing: Currently the team is about $7.5M under the cap. Extensions for Glenn and Gilmore can clear another $4M-$5M. The outlook for 2017 is pretty solid. Right now, the team has just over $112M committed to 43 players. If we assume a $10M cap increase (to $165M), that leaves the team with $53M in cap space as it stands today. You can add on $11M for 2016 and 2017 rookies, but that'll more or less be canceled out by the ~$10.8M savings if Corey Graham and Kyle Williams are released as expected. I've done my projections on Glenn's and Gilmore's contracts here (http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/185098-we-have-the-worst-cap-situation-in-the-league/page-28?do=findComment&comment=3891541), so let's account for $23M in cap hits for them as well, which brings the cap room down to $30M. My guess for Tyrod's new contract, assuming he earns one, is as follows: Taylor 5-year, $100M, $40M guaranteed Base Signing Total Dead 2017 8 8 16 40 2018 9 8 17 32 2019 12 8 20 24 2020 14 8 22 16 2021 17 8 25 8 That leaves $14M in cap space. You're then looking at RFA tenders for Gilislee, Schmidt, Groy, and Mario Butler, which will cost in the neighborhood of $7M. I assumed none of Lavar Edwards, Javier Arenas, Jonathan Meeks, TJ Barnes, Jordan Gay, or IK Enemkpali get RFA tenders. The team can then use their $7M in cap space to go shopping, or re-sign any of their own UFAs, which include Lawson, R. Woods, C. Bryant, and C. Gragg.
NoSaint Posted March 30, 2016 Posted March 30, 2016 My guess for Tyrod's new contract, assuming he earns one, is as follows: Taylor 5-year, $100M, $40M guaranteed Base Signing Total Dead 2017 8 8 16 40 2018 9 8 17 32 2019 12 8 20 24 2020 14 8 22 16 2021 17 8 25 8 are you projecting the 40m guaranteed as all signing bonus?
thebandit27 Posted March 30, 2016 Author Posted March 30, 2016 are you projecting the 40m guaranteed as all signing bonus? For the purpose of determining cap hits, yes...it keeps it simple from an analytical perspective. No idea what combination of signing bonus and gtd base salary/workout bonuses/option bonuses they'll consider, but I figure that between now and next March the subject of his deal will be so beaten to death we can iron it out
YoloinOhio Posted April 13, 2016 Posted April 13, 2016 I didn't know this.... thanks #roadsodas @kevinmassare Cap update: Only the #Bills first two picks will factor. Total CAP cost will be about 1.5m for rookies that count against the top 51
thebandit27 Posted April 13, 2016 Author Posted April 13, 2016 I didn't know this.... thanks #roadsodas @kevinmassare Cap update: Only the #Bills first two picks will factor. Total CAP cost will be about 1.5m for rookies that count against the top 51 That's probably close to true--still think they'll want about $5M total between draft picks and season-long transactions.
thebandit27 Posted May 10, 2016 Author Posted May 10, 2016 Updating things after Glenn's deal... Right now, the team has approximately $14.1M in space. If we figure $5M for draft picks to sign and cap space to keep for the upcoming year, that leaves $9M in space. Two things come to mind immediately IMO: 1) a Gilmore extension that can be front-loaded with a 2016 cap hit of as much as $18M 2) a trade for a starting player like Anthony Davis from SF (cap hit for this year would be ~$6M) If we look ahead to 2017, the team has $128.8M committed to 57 player contracts. I will start by assuming a salary cap of $165M, which means that, as of now, the team has approximately $36M in cap room. Let's say that ~$11M of that will be occupied by 2016 and 2017 draft picks, so that drops the team's cap space to $25M. As I posted before, my guess for Tyrod's new contract, assuming he earns one, is as follows: Taylor 5-year, $100M, $40M guaranteed Base Signing Total Dead 2017 8 8 16 40 2018 9 8 17 32 2019 12 8 20 24 2020 14 8 22 16 2021 17 8 25 8 That leaves $9M in cap space. You're then looking at RFA tenders for Gilislee, Schmidt, Groy, and Mario Butler, which will cost in the neighborhood of $7M. I assumed none of Lavar Edwards, Javier Arenas, Jonathan Meeks, TJ Barnes, Jordan Gay, or IK Enemkpali get RFA tenders. We're now down to $2M in space. This is where roster cuts come into play. The team can add ~$10.6M savings if Corey Graham and Kyle Williams are released (as expected). While releasing Eric Wood would save another $4.5M, I don't think that's something they'll want to do; I think it's more likely he gets a small extension to cut his cap hit a bit, so I'll assume another $2M there. Should Carpenter have a bounce-back year, he'll be safe, but if not, his release would add another $2.5M in space...for now, I'll assume he's their kicker for 2017. Without any other cuts, you're looking at approximately $14.5M in cap space to go shopping. Depth along the front-7, a RT, and additional passing targets will probably be the key areas, but I wouldn't rule out safety as well.
John from Riverside Posted May 10, 2016 Posted May 10, 2016 Updating things after Glenn's deal... Right now, the team has approximately $14.1M in space. If we figure $5M for draft picks to sign and cap space to keep for the upcoming year, that leaves $9M in space. Two things come to mind immediately IMO: 1) a Gilmore extension that can be front-loaded with a 2016 cap hit of as much as $18M 2) a trade for a starting player like Anthony Davis from SF (cap hit for this year would be ~$6M) If we look ahead to 2017, the team has $128.8M committed to 57 player contracts. I will start by assuming a salary cap of $165M, which means that, as of now, the team has approximately $36M in cap room. Let's say that ~$11M of that will be occupied by 2016 and 2017 draft picks, so that drops the team's cap space to $25M. As I posted before, my guess for Tyrod's new contract, assuming he earns one, is as follows: Taylor 5-year, $100M, $40M guaranteed Base Signing Total Dead 2017 8 8 16 40 2018 9 8 17 32 2019 12 8 20 24 2020 14 8 22 16 2021 17 8 25 8 That leaves $9M in cap space. You're then looking at RFA tenders for Gilislee, Schmidt, Groy, and Mario Butler, which will cost in the neighborhood of $7M. I assumed none of Lavar Edwards, Javier Arenas, Jonathan Meeks, TJ Barnes, Jordan Gay, or IK Enemkpali get RFA tenders. We're now down to $2M in space. This is where roster cuts come into play. The team can add ~$10.6M savings if Corey Graham and Kyle Williams are released (as expected). While releasing Eric Wood would save another $4.5M, I don't think that's something they'll want to do; I think it's more likely he gets a small extension to cut his cap hit a bit, so I'll assume another $2M there. Should Carpenter have a bounce-back year, he'll be safe, but if not, his release would add another $2.5M in space...for now, I'll assume he's their kicker for 2017. Without any other cuts, you're looking at approximately $14.5M in cap space to go shopping. Depth along the front-7, a RT, and additional passing targets will probably be the key areas, but I wouldn't rule out safety as well. Not to mention there will be another draft under their belt.......but if you get Anthony David under contract then might be better just to extend him or they could go looking for a RT in the next draft. And while I dont count on C. Jones to be any kind of factor THIS year.....it would sure be awesome if this QB is red shirted and then shows enough to hold the clipboard NEXT year. As always....while it is nice to have cap room.....the teams starters and depth NEED to come from solid drafting. That is why the aquisitions of Washington and WIlliams will be important factors. Whaley really is doing a superb job.
Deranged Rhino Posted May 10, 2016 Posted May 10, 2016 Indeed. Whaley has put this team in a bad situation for 2016. This thread is a PRIME example of CAP HELL! Major sacrifices and tradeoffs are going to be made this off season because of the cap situation which will not make us a better team in 2016. That is reality. Only a delusional fan and someone who doesn't understand the cap (the real world realities) would call the Bills cap situation fine Yeah. The more I am looking into the Glenn scenarios, the more I feel he won't be on the team next year. The facts are the Bills are in cap hell for 2016. It's the casuals who do not understand the fine details of the cap that don't get this. The people that get this are individuals that run the site OverTheCap. They will be out of cap hell next year if they play their cards right but if they do things like moving a complete roster bonus into a signing bonus for players like Clay they will end up in cap purgatory and potential cap hell once again in the coming years. Obviously you don't understand the "flexibility" of restructuring but that's ok. You have no understanding of the realities of the cap. You think the cap is like playing the offseason in a Madden video game.
Kirby Jackson Posted May 10, 2016 Posted May 10, 2016 Updating things after Glenn's deal... Right now, the team has approximately $14.1M in space. If we figure $5M for draft picks to sign and cap space to keep for the upcoming year, that leaves $9M in space. Two things come to mind immediately IMO: 1) a Gilmore extension that can be front-loaded with a 2016 cap hit of as much as $18M 2) a trade for a starting player like Anthony Davis from SF (cap hit for this year would be ~$6M) If we look ahead to 2017, the team has $128.8M committed to 57 player contracts. I will start by assuming a salary cap of $165M, which means that, as of now, the team has approximately $36M in cap room. Let's say that ~$11M of that will be occupied by 2016 and 2017 draft picks, so that drops the team's cap space to $25M. As I posted before, my guess for Tyrod's new contract, assuming he earns one, is as follows: Taylor 5-year, $100M, $40M guaranteed Base Signing Total Dead 2017 8 8 16 40 2018 9 8 17 32 2019 12 8 20 24 2020 14 8 22 16 2021 17 8 25 8 That leaves $9M in cap space. You're then looking at RFA tenders for Gilislee, Schmidt, Groy, and Mario Butler, which will cost in the neighborhood of $7M. I assumed none of Lavar Edwards, Javier Arenas, Jonathan Meeks, TJ Barnes, Jordan Gay, or IK Enemkpali get RFA tenders. We're now down to $2M in space. This is where roster cuts come into play. The team can add ~$10.6M savings if Corey Graham and Kyle Williams are released (as expected). While releasing Eric Wood would save another $4.5M, I don't think that's something they'll want to do; I think it's more likely he gets a small extension to cut his cap hit a bit, so I'll assume another $2M there. Should Carpenter have a bounce-back year, he'll be safe, but if not, his release would add another $2.5M in space...for now, I'll assume he's their kicker for 2017. Without any other cuts, you're looking at approximately $14.5M in cap space to go shopping. Depth along the front-7, a RT, and additional passing targets will probably be the key areas, but I wouldn't rule out safety as well. This is assuming Gilmore is extended this year correct?
thebandit27 Posted May 10, 2016 Author Posted May 10, 2016 This is assuming Gilmore is extended this year correct? Yes, I didn't factor him in from a numbers standpoint next year because I'm not sure how they'll structure it, but I could see his contract having anywhere from a $6M cap hit (if they front-load it this year) up to $12M.
Kirby Jackson Posted May 11, 2016 Posted May 11, 2016 Yes, I didn't factor him in from a numbers standpoint next year because I'm not sure how they'll structure it, but I could see his contract having anywhere from a $6M cap hit (if they front-load it this year) up to $12M. Front loading seems to be the way that the Bills are doing business. It's nice to have a rich owner. I'd venture to say that Bills players are seeing more of their money than others. They aren't tacking on some giant base at the end that guys will never see.
BarleyNY Posted May 11, 2016 Posted May 11, 2016 Front loading seems to be the way that the Bills are doing business. It's nice to have a rich owner. I'd venture to say that Bills players are seeing more of their money than others. They aren't tacking on some giant base at the end that guys will never see. Yeah. The guarantees they're giving do carry some not insignificant risk either. Maybe it's what they think they need to do because of the market here and they think it's a better option than overpaying. If so, then it's an interesting tactic.
thebandit27 Posted May 11, 2016 Author Posted May 11, 2016 (edited) Did a little work on this last night, and here's my new shot at the Gilmore contract: 5 years, $66.5M, $32M guaranteed Year Base Signing Roster Cap Hit Dead Hit Savings 2016 $11M (gtd) $3M -- $14M $32M -$18M 2017 $6M (gtd) $3M -- $9M $18M -$9M 2018 $8M $3M $1.5M $12.5M $9M $3.5M 2019 $10M $3M $1.5M $14.5M $6M $8.5M 2020 $12M $3M $1.5M $16.5M $3M $13.5M The above would consume an additional $3M of the current cap, which means they'd have $11M in cap room to sign draft picks and perhaps add a veteran or two. This would also bring the amount of cap space available to sign FAs next offseason down to $5.5M, which means one or two key players at starting positions. Edited May 11, 2016 by thebandit27
Kirby Jackson Posted May 11, 2016 Posted May 11, 2016 Did a little work on this last night, and here's my new shot at the Gilmore contract: 5 years, $66.5M, $32M guaranteed Year Base Signing Roster Cap Hit Dead Hit Savings 2016 $11M (gtd) $3M -- $14M $32M -$18M 2017 $6M (gtd) $3M -- $9M $18M -$9M 2018 $8M $3M $1.5M $12.5M $9M $3.5M 2019 $10M $3M $1.5M $14.5M $6M $8.5M 2020 $12M $3M $1.5M $16.5M $3M $13.5M The above would consume an additional $3M of the current cap, which means they'd have $11M in cap room to sign draft picks and perhaps add a veteran or two. This would also bring the amount of cap space available to sign FAs next offseason down to $5.5M, which means one or two key players at starting positions. Great stuff Bandit!! Your contract work has been on point. It really helps keep the cap situation clear.
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