JDG Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 (edited) Here's some fun with the playoff simulator: The Bills have two main playoff scenarios (ignoring exotic scenarios like getting a Wild Card at 8-8 (6% chance according to NY Times simulator) or getting in at 9-7 while losing to the Jets (14% chance!).) (A) Bills get in the playoffs at 10-6 by winning the rest of their games, AND any ONE of the following: (1) Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati AND Bills win strength of victory tiebreaker (2) Any TWO Pittsburgh Losses (3) Any TWO Kansas City Losses (B) Bills get in the playoffs at 9-7 by going 2-1 vs. the NFC East, beating the NY Jets, AND any THREE of the following: (1) Any ONE other NY Jets Loss (2) Any ONE Oakland Loss (3) Any TWO Pittsburgh Losses (4) Any THREE Kansas City Losses So, let's say that over Weeks 14 and 15 the following happens: (1) Buffalo beats Philly and Washington (2) Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati and Denver (3) Oakland loses at Denver and/or vs. Green Bay (4) NY Jets lose at Dallas If those four things all happen, then the necessary conditions for the Bills making the playoffs iin both Scenario A and in Scenario B would be fulfilled. Thus, Buffalo would enter the game against Dallas knowing that win or lose vs. Dallas they could clinch a playoff berth the following week at home against the NY Jets. And in fact, so long as the Jets don't lose both games, the Bills would know that they had no "clinching" scenarios in Week 16 either - i.e., win or lose against Dallas, they would still be "in the hunt" for Week 17. The game of course wouldn't be really meaningless, because a win vs. Dallas would give the Bills a few tiny "backdoor" scenarios for making the playoffs even with a Jets loss - but it nevertheless could be a game in which there isn't all that much on the line as we normally think of it. Edited December 9, 2015 by JDG
beerme1 Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 Ya thanks. I feel FAR less confident after you've laid this out.
norton20 Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 Need a Steelers loss desperately to Cinci. Damn Jax game was a killer!
CowgirlsFan Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 Meaningless??? NO WAY!!! Even IF both teams are out of the race beating the Cowboys would be a nice feather in the Bills cap.
ganesh Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 The Jets play the Patriots and the Bills in the final two games. They can lose to the Patriots and then the week 17 game at Orchard park could decide our fate. Of course, the Bills have to take care of business this week in Philadelphia first. Even if KC loses in the next few weeks, their schedule is easy enough for them to grab that WC. The final WC comes to how the Bills, Jets and Steelers play in the upcoming weeks. The Steelers have the hardest schedule, but have an all-pro QB.
QCity Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 Winning the next 2 and then losing to Matt Cassel and the Cowboys at home sounds about right.
ganesh Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 Winning the next 2 and then losing to Matt Cassel and the Cowboys at home sounds about right. The bills have already lost too many home games. They better win the next two at home against Dallas and NY.
Nanker Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 Meaningless??? NO WAY!!! Even IF both teams are out of the race beating the Cowboys would be a nice feather in the Bills cap. ^ This. Thank you CGF. If they're keeping score, it's an important game. Maroon's squad would have been 8-8 except for a meaningless game at Gillette*. Yet it's bandied about here as a semi-glorious feat.
BringBackFergy Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 I failed Algebra in high school (didn't fail it outright but I got a D)....these playoff scenarios give me flashbacks.
All_Pro_Bills Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 (edited) In looking at the scenarios and the schedules I've pretty much conceded 1 wild card spot to the Chiefs. I see the competition for the final spot between the Bills, Steelers, and Jets as the most likely outcome. The Steelers have the Bengals and Broncos left on their schedule. If they win both of those frankly they deserve the playoff spot. The Bills just need to win out. For all purposes its playoff time now. Lose and they're out. But none of the 4 games left are against an 'elite' QB which has pretty much been an automatic loss with this crew. Rex generally doesn't let an average QB beat his defense. That means the games should be decided by how well the Bills offense executes and protects the football. I just don't see them losing to Dallas based on the performance of their offense I've watched without Romo. Just dreadful. The defense is good. I wasn't all that impressed with the Redskins on Monday night either. I haven't watched much of them and expected better based on the pre-game build up. The Eagles game is a toss up at this point and their victory over New England was due to some rare mistakes by the Patriots rather than stellar play from the Eagles. They got lucky. It might boil down to week 17 and a winner take all battle with the Jets for the final spot. A game between two teams that have brutally disappointed their fan base in the past when the chips are on the line. Edited December 9, 2015 by All_Pro_Bills
r00tabaga Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 So what you're saying is, let's watch these last four games. Gotcha.
NOVABillsFan Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 (edited) The Bills need to win every game to stand a chance. And even then they won't make it if Pitt doesn't lose 1 or 2 games. The microsecond they think they don't need a win the season is over for sure. For all intents and purposes they are in the playoffs now. 1 loss = watching the playoffs from their couches. (2) Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati and Denver The games are @ Cincy and Denver plays @ Pittsburgh with Osweiler Edited December 9, 2015 by NOVABillsFan
filthymcnasty08 Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 I think that we are going to find that the Jacksonville game was full of meaning.
NOVABillsFan Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 (edited) To he honest, there are 2 or 3 other losses one can point to for the reason as well. Most recently KC (like the Raiders last season). We can point to the Giants game in Buffalo as the Giants have lost what 3 or 4 games with a 10 point lead late in the game. We can even point to the last game against NE where Leodis McFumbles again gave the game away. Yes, losing early has an impact but just look at KC, Indy, Houston. All of them have had bad starts and are playing strong. IMO losing late in the season can be devastating. Edited December 9, 2015 by NOVABillsFan
zonabb Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 Can't see this team winning back-to-back road games against teams that albeit have bad records but are in the playoff hunt themselves and have no reason to roll over.
papazoid Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 by then, dallas backups will be playing for their nfl future. the only so called "meaningless" games are when winning playoff teams have secured their seeding and rest some starters.
White Linen Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 I think that we are going to find that the Jacksonville game was full of meaning. I believe we already understand. We need our starting QB to play in order to have a chance to win.
DriveFor1Outta5 Posted December 9, 2015 Posted December 9, 2015 (edited) I think that we are going to find that the Jacksonville game was full of meaning. I keep reading this all over this forum. Of course it was, every loss is. The Jacksonville game shouldn't be viewed as a game that we should have won. EJ was the starting QB and Sammy was out. Looking back at it, we really shouldn't have expected any different. Plus mathematically speaking the KC loss was far more damaging. We are one game behind them with a loss to them. Add the fact they have an easy schedule coming up, and that loss affected us more. Had we beat Jacksonville and still lose to KC we would be in a 7-5 tie with them. Considering KC's easy schedule there is a high probability we lose out to them. Beat KC and we hold the tie breaker while controlling our own destiny. The Jacksonville loss was embarrassing, but the KC loss was more damaging imo. We were rolling heading into halftime. Then we decided to stop throwing to Sammy, and Rex's defense made Alex Smith look like Montana. We really shouldn't have lost that game. I'm not saying it isn't fair to be frustrated with the Jacksonville game. Personally I'm just more frustrated with the KC debacle. I don't expect any wins with EJ on the field. Edited December 9, 2015 by DriveFor1Outta5
Recommended Posts