Spotrac calculates Taylor's current value through 10 games

[papazoid]

$20 mil is going rate for a Top 15 QB

[Blokestradamus]

I'd generally agree , but Tyrod can make a serious case for himself these next four games. The Bills are in the thick of the wild card mix , and it's full pressure from this point on. There is really no margin for error remaining. A solid to excellent performance would bolster his position as this is the time when average QBs have failed the Bills in the past. Time to show he can be that franchise caliber guy. That would take precedence over the small sample size .

 

 

The rest of the season sure means a lot to TT. I want to add that (assuming a strong finish) it would be a big mistake if the Bills didn't offer him some sort of new contract or at least start that dialogue in the off-season. You don't want him to be angry and feel unappreciated. i'm OK with him feeling like he has to earn his money though.

 

Absolutely. The next 4 games are huge games. If he ends up being the first Bills QB in forever and a day to lead them to the playoffs, I might write him the cheque myself!

 

There's a lot to like about the guy. He gives the offense a legitimate threat deep which takes that 8th man out of the box. He helps the run game as much as the run game helps him. He's a bright, engaging character. He's assumed a leadership role naturally on a team with a few potentially challenging personalities. He has been a lot better than I thought he would be but I'm not completely sold yet.

 

By my very nature, I look for a significant body of work. That's not Tyrod's fault that he doesn't have that at this point, it's just a statement of fact. With another year to tailor the scheme to him, maybe he can take another step in his progression but the NFL isn't a league built on guaranteed development. Call me optimistic but cautious.

By year's end,he will have started 14 (maybe more) games. And what if you let him go to free agency and signs elsewhere?

 

What if you pay him now and the NFL works him out? You're stuck with a huge liability both on the field and on the books.

 

If he proves to be good enough to be a franchise QB (which I think he's some way off from proving), pay him whatever the hell he wants. I see no harm in waiting. The Bills have a cash-rich owner that can influence his cap number, Mario's salary will almost certainly be off the books by then too.

 

Also, think about the kind of guy we're talking about. He came to Buffalo because he bet on himself. He's in a situation with a head coach that believes in him, an OC that is building a playbook just for him. A fan base that is currently besotted with him. I don't think he'll feel slighted by waiting, he's waited his whole professional career. He might also want to repay the loyalty to Rex and the Pegulas.

[PromoTheRobot]

 

 

 

Absolutely. The next 4 games are huge games. If he ends up being the first Bills QB in forever and a day to lead them to the playoffs, I might write him the cheque myself!

 

There's a lot to like about the guy. He gives the offense a legitimate threat deep which takes that 8th man out of the box. He helps the run game as much as the run game helps him. He's a bright, engaging character. He's assumed a leadership role naturally on a team with a few potentially challenging personalities. He has been a lot better than I thought he would be but I'm not completely sold yet.

 

By my very nature, I look for a significant body of work. That's not Tyrod's fault that he doesn't have that at this point, it's just a statement of fact. With another year to tailor the scheme to him, maybe he can take another step in his progression but the NFL isn't a league built on guaranteed development. Call me optimistic but cautious.

 

 

What if you pay him now and the NFL works him out? You're stuck with a huge liability both on the field and on the books.

 

If he proves to be good enough to be a franchise QB (which I think he's some way off from proving), pay him whatever the hell he wants. I see no harm in waiting. The Bills have a cash-rich owner that can influence his cap number, Mario's salary will almost certainly be off the books by then too.

 

Also, think about the kind of guy we're talking about. He came to Buffalo because he bet on himself. He's in a situation with a head coach that believes in him, an OC that is building a playbook just for him. A fan base that is currently besotted with him. I don't think he'll feel slighted by waiting, he's waited his whole professional career. He might also want to repay the loyalty to Rex and the Pegulas.

Neither I or anyone said extend Taylor today. Just like you, we said at the end of the season. Some are advocating waiting all of next season and let him become a free agent before negotiating. That's a mistake. Edited December 8, 2015 by PromoTheRobot

[Blokestradamus]

Neither I or anyone said extend Taylor today. Just like you, we said at the end of the season. Some are advocating waiting all of next season and let him become a free agent before negotiating. That's a mistake.

 

Oh, I'm letting his deal run right down. Don't misunderstand me. He's got 20 games left to prove something.

 

Not so long ago, 14 games wasn't enough time to judge EJ. I think the same can be said about the guy we think is good.

[JohnC]

Ha ha, this will make heads spin here!!! There are MANY on this board that wont talk extension with him before his contract is up. That isn't realistic in today's NFL. I would JUMP at the chance to put together a Foles type of deal but I think that Tyrod's people would be crazy to accept that. I am thinking more along the lines of 4 years $60M with $30M or so guaranteed. That's a moving target and a number off the top of my head. That to me seems like a fair deal as of today.

By the end of the year the organization will know what they have with him as their qb. They see a qb playing well and with upside potential. They also realize that without him as their qb they go back to the starting line in their generational search for a franchise qb.

 

In this NFL starved qb league the issue for the Bills isn't only what he is worth to the Bills but it is also what is he worth on the market with plenty of teams desperate for a good qb.

 

The market is the market. Values and cost go up, not down. The sooner you pay the less you pay later. Wishful thinking is certainly not going to change that economic dynamic.

 

From a team building standpoint it is better to secure the qb position with TT and then address whatever positional needs that need to be addressed. The bottom line is regardless how good you are at the rest of the positions you still go nowhere without a quality qb. The Cowboys certainly demonstrate that. With a healthy starting qb and a good team they are SB contenders. With mediocre backups and a good team they are pretenders.

 

I have no doubt that Whaley is going to get a deal done sooner rather than later because it is in his best interest and the franchise's best interest. Is there a risk in making a too quick judgment regarding TT? Absolutely. However, when you are in this particular business you are in the risk business. If you don't want to gamble then don't go to the casino and sit at the poker table.

[Kirby Jackson]

I disagree totally regarding playing out the current deal. The Seahawks, for example, tagged Wilson after his deal ran out. I have two reasons for wanting to wait. The first is:

 

 

Yup. Sample size. I like a lot of what I've seen from TT, but I haven't seen enough yet. Before I give him an elite QB deal he has to show he can shoulder more of the weight of the offense - and stay healthy while doing it. Durability is a huge concern for me and that compounds as he's asked to do more.

 

The second has to do with the projected contract versus the cost of the franchise tag. There isn't much difference between a $20M per season average and the first year tag (which should be about that). I'm okay with tagging him and getting a deal done, or preferably telling him we are going to tag him and getting a deal done before we would have to actually use it.

 

Or I would do a Foles type of extension after June 1st, but before the 2016 season starts so no signing bonus money would hit in 2016. They could, of course, agree to the deal before then and wait to sign it. He's got 4 more games before then to consider.

 

Lastly, I totally understand the reasoning behind signing him early and saving some money. That's valid if you're sold. I'm not yet, not to that degree anyway. I've got no problem with paying an elite quarterback market value if I know I have one.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor/

 

You really have to read the details, including the notes section. 2017 has already voided.

RW is the exception not the rule. He now is paid extremely highly. Bradford and Flacco are the other 2 that waited and Bradford was a disaster and Flacco won betting on himself. If you are waiting to tag you will be talking $22M or so guaranteed for 2017. That's barely more than I am suggesting guaranteeing over a 4 year period. Newton, Kaep, Ryan, Tannehill, Dalton, Smith, Etc... never hit the market. It just doesn't work that way. No one can afford to wait it out to make sure that he's $125M guy. They rather pay $30m guaranteed and be wrong than guarantee $50m and gutting your roster.

By the end of the year the organization will know what they have with him as their qb. They see a qb playing well and with upside potential. They also realize that without him as their qb they go back to the starting line in their generational search for a franchise qb.

 

In this NFL starved qb league the issue for the Bills isn't only what he is worth to the Bills but it is also what is he worth on the market with plenty of teams desperate for a good qb.

 

The market is the market. Values and cost go up, not down. The sooner you pay the less you pay later. Wishful thinking is certainly not going to change that economic dynamic.

 

From a team building standpoint it is better to secure the qb position with TT and then address whatever positional needs that need to be addressed. The bottom line is regardless how good you are at the rest of the positions you still go nowhere without a quality qb. The Cowboys certainly demonstrate that. With a healthy starting qb and a good team they are SB contenders. With mediocre backups and a good team they are pretenders.

 

I have no doubt that Whaley is going to get a deal done sooner rather than later because it is in his best interest and the franchise's best interest. Is there a risk in making a too quick judgment regarding TT? Absolutely. However, when you are in this particular business you are in the risk business. If you don't want to gamble then don't go to the casino and sit at the poker table.

Great thoughts John Edited December 8, 2015 by Kirby Jackson

[Canadian Bills Fan]

I think $20M is fair

 

I mean how much was Fitz's contract with Buffalo?

 

 

 

 

CBF

[BuffaloHokie13]

RW is the exception not the rule. He now is paid extremely highly. Bradford and Flacco are the other 2 that waited and Bradford was a disaster and Flacco won betting on himself. If you are waiting to tag you will be talking $22M or so guaranteed for 2016. That's barely more than I am suggesting guaranteeing over a 4 year period. Newton, Kaep, Ryan, Tannehill, Dalton, Smith, Etc... never hit the market. It just doesn't work that way. No one can afford to wait it out to make sure that he's $125M guy. They rather pay $30m guaranteed and be wrong than guarantee $50m and gutting your roster.

Great thoughts John

$30M guaranteed might work for a 2 year deal, but the fact is there is a sub .500 QB who has never made the playoffs that got 45M guaranteed on a 4 year deal.

[LA Grant]

Totally understand the argument to wait and see, but I predict his value will only continue to rise the longer the F.O. waits to extend him. That's just my feeling. I think he has been playing solid-to-great all year, considering the design of our offense, and has only continued to improve. I expect that will continue as he develops, and as the offense gels more and more.

Edited December 8, 2015 by LA Grant

[Kirby Jackson]

$30M guaranteed might work for a 2 year deal, but the fact is there is a sub .500 QB who has never made the playoffs that got 45M guaranteed on a 4 year deal.

I don't disagree. It is a little wishful thinking on my end but I don't think impossible. My logic is that at 26 years-old he gets a chance to get the stability with the $30M guaranteed (maybe even closer to $40M). It gives him some comfort that he hasn't been afforded in his pro career. At the same time he gets a chance at age 30 to score the mega deal. That could be the 6 year, 9 figure deal with a large chunk guaranteed. The thought process is that he will take the immediate security (if fair) and play for the mega deal.

[Doc]

Russell Wilson signed a five-year $89 million contract so the article is off-base

[BuffaloHokie13]

Russell Wilson signed a five-year $89 million contract so the article is off-base

Wasn't it a 4 year 87.6M extension to his rookie deal? That would make the resulting contract 5 Years, 89.3M.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Ha ha, this will make heads spin here!!! There are MANY on this board that wont talk extension with him before his contract is up. That isn't realistic in today's NFL. I would JUMP at the chance to put together a Foles type of deal but I think that Tyrod's people would be crazy to accept that. I am thinking more along the lines of 4 years $60M with $30M or so guaranteed. That's a moving target and a number off the top of my head. That to me seems like a fair deal as of today.

What about a Foles type deal- 2 years $27 mil, with $20 mil guaranteed?

This gives the Bills 3 years to see what they have and make sure Taylor can maintain at a high level. Meanwhile it gives Taylor's side the guarantee and also the chance to sign the BIG contract still.

 

Thoughts?

[abc]

 

Oh, I'm letting his deal run right down. Don't misunderstand me. He's got 20 games left to prove something.

 

Not so long ago, 14 games wasn't enough time to judge EJ. I think the same can be said about the guy we think is good.

EJ's first (and second) season vs. Tyrod's first season as a Bill are completely different circumstances. EJ is playing out a rookie contract and there was no pressure to decide whether to try to extend him based on what can charitably be described as 'uneven' play. Tyrod on the other hand is a free agent at the end of next season and by any number of objective or subjective measures is on a trajectory to establish himself as an above average starting quarterback. It's only 10 game sample in regular season but he's 6-4 on a team with an average defense, a QBR rating in the top 5 in the NFL, and impressive running statistics and capabilities. Each game we get more data by which to update our estimates of his longer term value.

 

Here's the conundrum however: the more quality starts Tyrod produces over time, the more he's valued as the uncertainty about his capability level goes down, the more the Bills want to keep him long term, the more they have to pay as they wait longer to sign him to an extension. However if Tyrod starts to put together poor games, the lower his perceived value goes, and the less the Bills are even interested in resigning him anyway. Of course we could end up somewhere in-between with mixed results.

 

Where I end up on this is if the next four games go about as well for Tyrod as the prior ten, it behooves the Bills to sign him to an extension in the off-season. Training camp, pre-season, and fourteen regular season games played for a guy who got to be an understudy in Baltimore for 4 years should be enough to know that at worst they'd be getting an average QB who gives them a chance to win if the defense is solid at all. They could get him at reasonable market rates this off-season. I question whether the incremental data gained by another full regular season of games is worth it in terms of understanding his downside risk compared with the possibility that his price tag goes up much higher and they possibly lose him to another team with more cap space.

 

Again, not saying to extend him right now, or even in the off-season if he seriously falters in the next four weeks, but if he continues playing like he is I say lock him up for another 3-4 years at least this upcoming off-season.

[PromoTheRobot]

 

Oh, I'm letting his deal run right down. Don't misunderstand me. He's got 20 games left to prove something.

 

Not so long ago, 14 games wasn't enough time to judge EJ. I think the same can be said about the guy we think is good.

Well then be prepared to lose him. Leaving him dangling might send a bad message, especially if he's a hot commodity going into free agency.

[Doc]

Wasn't it a 4 year 87.6M extension to his rookie deal? That would make the resulting contract 5 Years, 89.3M.

 

Yup. But the article linked by the OP says he's making $21M/year.

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

Yup. But the article linked by the OP says he's making $21M/year.

87.6M / 4 Years is 21.9M / Year. His base salary this year is still 700k, despite his extension.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/russell-wilson/

[BarleyNY]

RW is the exception not the rule. He now is paid extremely highly. Bradford and Flacco are the other 2 that waited and Bradford was a disaster and Flacco won betting on himself. If you are waiting to tag you will be talking $22M or so guaranteed for 2017. That's barely more than I am suggesting guaranteeing over a 4 year period. Newton, Kaep, Ryan, Tannehill, Dalton, Smith, Etc... never hit the market. It just doesn't work that way. No one can afford to wait it out to make sure that he's $125M guy. They rather pay $30m guaranteed and be wrong than guarantee $50m and gutting your roster.Great thoughts John

$22M in 2017 plus about $2M (depending upon starts) in 2017. That's 2 years at an average of $12M per year if he isn't signed long term before then. It's also only $2M or less for one season if he doesn't work out. So, again, I'm certainly open to deals where TT gets some money and has his chance to earn big dollars, but could be cut loose early without breaking the bank. That's fair. But I'm not discussing it until after the season concludes and I'm negotiating from the standpoint of knowing I could have him for two years for $24M. If his demands aren't reasonable, then he can play under his contract next season and we can go from there with the tag on the table.

Edited December 8, 2015 by BarleyNY

[Blokestradamus]

Well then be prepared to lose him. Leaving him dangling might send a bad message, especially if he's a hot commodity going into free agency.

 

I am absolutely prepared to lose him and I would prepare as if he's not the answer. Draft someone in the 2nd round (the guy I like might well be there) as insurance. Tyrod is the unquestioned starter in 2016, no doubt about it. If he proves himself beyond any doubt that he's a franchise QB, I throw a blank cheque at him. Having that guy means everything in the modern NFL, I'll cut my cloth accordingly elsewhere.

 

I believe in Tyrod Taylor as a man, I think he's pretty switched on. He understands the business and he understands that it's just business. I think he knows what's good for him and what's been good to him. I don't think there's a scenario on the table where he wouldn't give the Bills first refusal.

 

I would open the dialogue over this offseason and gauge interest/expectation, that's the smart business ploy. I'd just be reluctant to have our hand forced by circumstance.

[PromoTheRobot]

 

I am absolutely prepared to lose him and I would prepare as if he's not the answer. Draft someone in the 2nd round (the guy I like might well be there) as insurance. Tyrod is the unquestioned starter in 2016, no doubt about it. If he proves himself beyond any doubt that he's a franchise QB, I throw a blank cheque at him. Having that guy means everything in the modern NFL, I'll cut my cloth accordingly elsewhere.

 

I believe in Tyrod Taylor as a man, I think he's pretty switched on. He understands the business and he understands that it's just business. I think he knows what's good for him and what's been good to him. I don't think there's a scenario on the table where he wouldn't give the Bills first refusal.

 

I would open the dialogue over this offseason and gauge interest/expectation, that's the smart business ploy. I'd just be reluctant to have our hand forced by circumstance.

This is a great way to guarantee the Bills suck for a few more years. Get rid of the good QB and draft a second rounder and expect him to just step on the field and play like Taylor has. I can't myself enough over this one. Tell me you're just trolling and are not serious?

 

I'm very impressed you are willing to wait until Taylor probes himself "beyond a shadow of a doubt." I believe that's how all franchise QBs arrive in the NFL, with a money-back guarantee stamped on their foreheads.

Edited December 8, 2015 by PromoTheRobot