Article: Comparing Tyrod to the field after 9 games

[machine gun kelly]

I doubt we will pick up damaged goods like RG3, but rather draft a QB somewhere next year and give TT at least one more year to see if he progresses. He could end up 9-5 this year, and you know he would have won the Jags game. EJ singlehandedly gave that game away.

[GG]

Compare TT's first 3 games to his middle three starts and then his last 3. You'll see that he's regressed considerably over the season in most statistical categories.

 

Games 1-3 (vs IND, vs NE, at MIA) 58-78 74.4% 714 yards 7 TD 3 INT 9.7 yards per attempt

Games 4-6 (vs NYG, at TEN, vs MIA) 49-71 69.0% 564 yards 3 TD 1 INT 7.9 yards per attempt

Games 7-9 (at NYJ, at NE, at KC) 58-101 57.4% 682 yards 4 TD 0 INT 6.8 yards per attempt

 

Obviously, stats cannot tell the whole story. What is evident is that the more Taylor is asked to throw the ball the worse he gets.

 

There are two questions I have that are becoming answered as the season continues: 1) Why did Ozzie Newsome allow Taylor to leave as UFA for basically NFL QB minimum wage? and 2) Why after 4 NFL seasons apprenticing can Taylor not read defenses and use the middle of the field? He's not a rookie.

The stats back up what we've been seeing this year. But I'm not ready to throw the TT experiment out with the bath water.

 

These declining numbers are in tandem with the decline and exit of Percy Harvin. TT is not quite ready to trust the protection and step up in the pocket. He's much more comfortable going to the sidelines from his drop backs or be ready to take off. Woods and Hogan are not good or reliable outside WRs, so Bills are essentially running a half field offense.

 

One more thing to work on in the offseason

Edited December 5, 2015 by GG

[BillsFanM.D.]

 

 

I was a big supporter of EJ but that went away real quick after the Jags game. I now think that he’s just too mentally weak to ever become a franchise QB.

The difference between EJ and Tyrod is that Tyrod is in his fifth year. He has a different bar to clear than EJ did when he was playing regularly. By the 10th game of your fifth year you should be getting close to your prime performance level. What I’m currently seeing is a level of performance in Taylor that’s similar to Fitzpatrick which is very concerning for fans viewing his performance through that type of lens. We don’t want that middling level, we want more than that.

Having said all that, I want Tyrod Taylor to become “THE MAN” tomorrow. I think that he really needs that signature game where he grabs this team by the lapels and takes over the game with his arm and legs. If they lose tomorrow and Taylor was part of the problem in a “must win” game situation, fans will be left with the feeling that the chances Taylor is the long term answer is slim because he's been in the league for an extended time a already. Basically he’ll start being looked at as the flashy “capable but limited” Fitzpatrick QB model. We are ALL Tyrod Taylor fans tomorrow. I hope that he can cease the moment. Bills fans need to see him do that.

C’mon Tyrod, be the man tomorrow!

 

I'll second that completely.

[NOVABillsFan]

Tyrods "game" has slipped as expected after one or more months of game film. Its bound to happen to practically all but the elite QB's.

 

Tyrod is not an elite / franchise QB and about average in this mediocre league.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

Bring in Kapernick to challenge. Best man wins. Two similar styles. Both capable backups and starters.

[GG]

Bring in Kapernick to challenge. Best man wins. Two similar styles. Both capable backups and starters.

No.

[BillsVet]

Newsome didn't "allow" him to leave, they tried to get him back. Tyrod chose to leave because he wanted a chance to start. It's also why he turned down a bigger offer from Denver.

 

Newsome didn't offer a contract more than what Buffalo offered either. And the Bills' deal wasn't very much, maxing out at 7M if he met all incentives. As for the Broncos, well, he'd be competing against Osweiler when Manning retired. Of course he's not going that route unless that contract was huge, which I doubt.

 

 

The stats back up what we've been seeing this year. But I'm not ready to throw the TT experiment out with the bath water.

 

These declining numbers are in tandem with the decline and exit of Percy Harvin. TT is not quite ready to trust the protection and step up in the pocket. He's much more comfortable going to the sidelines from his drop backs or be ready to take off. Woods and Hogan are not good or reliable outside WRs, so Bills are essentially running a half field offense.

 

One more thing to work on in the offseason

 

Right. The book on TT hasn't been fully written yet, but he's not played to a level to preclude them from finding another competitor at the position. Depending on him to improve in 2016 is the wrong move.

 

These final 5 games are going to answer some questions, although the right side of the OL probably won't keep him clean tomorrow.

Edited December 6, 2015 by BillsVet

[GG]

I don't think it's a question whether they bring in two new QBs next year

[John from Riverside]

No.

I agree....I would not do this

 

Bringing in KK in would tie up a significant amount of money in the QB position.....

 

What they should do is go into next year with Tyrod as the incombant starter......but they SHOULD draft a QB high and make it clear that TT starts the season so there is no contiversy and the rookie QB holds the clipboard......

 

That is something this team has not done in a long long time......allow a rookie QB to get his NFL legs under him before putting him in the pressure cooker

 

Also.....by not tieing up a ton of money in the QB position this will allow the bills to focus their money on the changes that need to be made to correctly run Rex Ryan's defense.

 

This was supposed to be a team that dominated on defense and ran a ball control offense

[Deranged Rhino]

 

Newsome didn't offer a contract more than what Buffalo offered either. And the Bills' deal wasn't very much, maxing out at 7M if he met all incentives. As for the Broncos, well, he'd be competing against Osweiler when Manning retired. Of course he's not going that route unless that contract was huge, which I doubt.

 

 

I'm not sold on Taylor personally yet, so I'm not trying to argue that he's the answer by any means.

 

I'm just saying that it's tough to make the argument that Newsome let Taylor walk because he knew he wasn't a viable franchise type QB in the league because he tried to to keep him. As others have pointed out, he already has a super bowl winning QB on the roster so he's not going to overpay, but he did make an offer (I have no idea for how much though). Taylor chose not to resign because he knew it was Flacco's team, ditto with Denver and it being Manning's team. I don't think he was afraid to compete with Brock at all, he came here knowing he'd have to compete with EJ and a vet and still chose to come to Buffalo for less money than what he was offered in Denver.

[Marty McFly]

Compare TT's first 3 games to his middle three starts and then his last 3. You'll see that he's regressed considerably over the season in most statistical categories.

 

Games 1-3 (vs IND, vs NE, at MIA) 58-78 74.4% 714 yards 7 TD 3 INT 9.7 yards per attempt

Games 4-6 (vs NYG, at TEN, vs MIA) 49-71 69.0% 564 yards 3 TD 1 INT 7.9 yards per attempt

Games 7-9 (at NYJ, at NE, at KC) 58-101 57.4% 682 yards 4 TD 0 INT 6.8 yards per attempt

 

Obviously, stats cannot tell the whole story. What is evident is that the more Taylor is asked to throw the ball the worse he gets.

 

There are two questions I have that are becoming answered as the season continues: 1) Why did Ozzie Newsome allow Taylor to leave as UFA for basically NFL QB minimum wage? and 2) Why after 4 NFL seasons apprenticing can Taylor not read defenses and use the middle of the field? He's not a rookie.

Its his 1st season starting so I could see why people would look at him as a rookie. Practice and Game time are 2 totally different things. Also lets remember Tyrod got hurt after the 3rd game, and a knee and ankle injury will affect your footwork which in turn affects your throwing ACC, so if your gonna say he regressed at least acknowledge hes been playin hurt and thats affected his play.

 

[simpleman]

 

What I’m currently seeing is a level of performance in Taylor that’s similar to Fitzpatrick which is very concerning for fans viewing his performance through that type of lens. We don’t want that middling level, we want more than that.

 

I don't compare TT to FitzPick6. TT has shown he deserves to be a starting NFL QB. He has yet to show he can be a "Franchise" QB.

We give him a chance and hope he can show us more. But we need to draft a "QB" to see if he can be "the man" someday. Meanwhile we hope TT can show us he can be more and let the draftee develop. Not saying we draft first round, we need multiple OL upgrades and "DL"replacements we will soon need due to cap problems. Safety depth and Lb

 

Edited December 6, 2015 by simpleman

[CSBill]

The criticism of Taylor on this website absolutely blows my mind. I have a circle of incredibly knowledgeable Bills fans friends. Every single last one of them going into the 2014 season was like, "yeah I'm all for letting EJ loose this year and giving him a shot but gun to my head, I don't think it's happening for him." Then going into this year, to a man, everyone is like, "let's call a spade a spade- EJ sucks." You would think these opinions would be uncontroversial and blatantly obvious- especially considering they were RIGHT. But somehow in the world of TBD, these were/still are? controversial thoughts.

 

Now fast forward to week 12 2015. These same people are saying, "hey I'm not necessarily sold on Taylor long term but man, after 9 starts, it's hard to complain. Think about our expectations at the QB position going into the season- the guy has obviously exceeded our wildest dreams. His numbers are fantastic, he doesn't make the big mistake, could he let loose a little more? Absolutely. But 9 games in, I'm encouraged by what I see." Once again, you would think that these would be uncontroversial opinions to have but in the magical world of TBD, these are borderline outspoken opinions. It is comforting knowing that once again, they are the CORRECT opinions. Am I guaranteeing that he is the long term answer? NO. But anyone who is not encouraged by his production so far needs to have their head examined. And the ultimate irony is that the majority of the people who are nitpicking Taylor's game after 9 starts are the SAME EXACT PEOPLE who were still holding out hope for you know who after 15 starts. It's beyond comical. I rest my case.

 

What? You are expecting we at TBD to have well-reasoned, thoughtful, fact-based, opinions and perspectives? …. What fun would that be?

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Compare TT's first 3 games to his middle three starts and then his last 3. You'll see that he's regressed considerably over the season in most statistical categories.

 

Games 1-3 (vs IND, vs NE, at MIA) 58-78 74.4% 714 yards 7 TD 3 INT 9.7 yards per attempt

Games 4-6 (vs NYG, at TEN, vs MIA) 49-71 69.0% 564 yards 3 TD 1 INT 7.9 yards per attempt

Games 7-9 (at NYJ, at NE, at KC) 58-101 57.4% 682 yards 4 TD 0 INT 6.8 yards per attempt

 

Obviously, stats cannot tell the whole story. What is evident is that the more Taylor is asked to throw the ball the worse he gets.

 

There are two questions I have that are becoming answered as the season continues: 1) Why did Ozzie Newsome allow Taylor to leave as UFA for basically NFL QB minimum wage? and 2) Why after 4 NFL seasons apprenticing can Taylor not read defenses and use the middle of the field? He's not a rookie.

 

It is worth noting that these are some of the best run defenses in the league. Again, our offense is based on a strong run to set up the pass.

 

Taylor is not mind blowing, and has his warts, but do you remember when we were begging for Cutler or Bradford to come in?

 

We have a lot of problems, and things to fix. And man, I would love a Brady or Rodgers. But even with limiations, he's a whole lot better than what we've seen for a while.

 

P.S. I have a buddy who is Ravens fan. He's been asking if they can have Tyrod back FWIW

[Big Blitz]

Tyrod will be back and pencilled in as the starter at OTAs.

 

If Tyrod is given a Fitz type extension or more this team is run by morons.

 

If we don't draft a QB early in the draft this team is run by morons.

 

If we don't bring in a quality backup via UFA this team is run by morons.

 

Those comparisons while nice gloss over the fact Tyrod is in year 5. Those QBs were rookies (outside of Rodgers) and their ceilings were higher. So I'm taking that with a grain of salt. And the fact that he's regressed as the year has gone on, that Woods is having a miserable season, that he forgets Clay and Sammy are on the field, that he said "coverage dictates where the ball goes" (that translates to me as they need to be college open), that he was absolutely terrible when Sammy was out and McCoy. These are all red flags.

 

Elite QBs are necessary because they are the only thing that can cover up for inevitable injuries. And speaking of which it doesn't help that in his first 9 games he's been hurt several times and has missed games---which may be why the thing that makes him dangerous his running, they seem to have limited him there. That or he's still hurt.

[NOVABillsFan]

Tyrod will be back, and the Bills will probably keep looking for another option at QB. How they do that, draft or FA will be TBD that is To Be Determined not Two Bills Drive.

 

I would hope that the FO not jump the gun and over pay Taylor until he truly can do what no Bills QB has done for a decade or more. Win 5 or more in a row.

 

IIRC the Bledsoe team did that and then lost to the Steelers 2nd and 3rd stringers in Buffalo to miss the playoffs.

Edited December 6, 2015 by NOVABillsFan

[Dan]

Bring in Kapernick to challenge. Best man wins. Two similar styles. Both capable backups and starters.

I keep seeing people mentiona Kap (or RGIII) as capable backups. What makes anyone think they'd be good backups? For a good backup you need someone that's smart, studies the game and prepares every week. Kap does does not strike me as a student of the game. For a good backup, you want someone like Fitz, or even EJ. Someone that's smart and willing to prepare every week mentally for the game.

 

For those still saying EJ single handedly lost the Jags game.. If anything he fought back from a miserable start and single handedly got us the lead, only to watch the defense give it up with one of their trademark 4th quarter bend and break drives. I firmly think Tyrod should be the starting QB, but I also don't see why EJ is considered such a horrbile QB that he can't even be a backup. I think people jsut let their emotions cloud their rational thought processes.

 

As for Tyrod, I agree, he needs to begin elevating his game. I don't know if its him or Roman's play calling, but the offense disappears for long stretches all too often. Inside the 20, we still don't take shots at the end zone. And slants or posts down the middle of the field are all but nonexistent. Like I said, I don't know if that's due to Tyrod's inabilities or if its Roman simplifying the offense too much. But, its hurt us in quite a few games and I can't fully get behind any QB on any team, until I see them consistently run an offense that attacks the entire field.

[NOVABillsFan]

I keep seeing people mentiona Kap (or RGIII) as capable backups. What makes anyone think they'd be good backups? For a good backup you need someone that's smart, studies the game and prepares every week. Kap does does not strike me as a student of the game. For a good backup, you want someone like Fitz, or even EJ. Someone that's smart and willing to prepare every week mentally for the game.

 

For those still saying EJ single handedly lost the Jags game.. If anything he fought back from a miserable start and single handedly got us the lead, only to watch the defense give it up with one of their trademark 4th quarter bend and break drives. I firmly think Tyrod should be the starting QB, but I also don't see why EJ is considered such a horrbile QB that he can't even be a backup. I think people jsut let their emotions cloud their rational thought processes.

 

As for Tyrod, I agree, he needs to begin elevating his game. I don't know if its him or Roman's play calling, but the offense disappears for long stretches all too often. Inside the 20, we still don't take shots at the end zone. And slants or posts down the middle of the field are all but nonexistent. Like I said, I don't know if that's due to Tyrod's inabilities or if its Roman simplifying the offense too much. But, its hurt us in quite a few games and I can't fully get behind any QB on any team, until I see them consistently run an offense that attacks the entire field.

well said. just a few comments / questions

 

is it the QB or Roman's play calling?

The offense disappears for long stretches is confounding and I would love to know the answer.

 

The defense stats are let down. I'd love to see more INT's and sacks but I think that a D can win with containment alone if they tackle well and not allow big YAC numbers.

[starrymessenger]

 

I'm sold on Tyrod as a potentially top shelf backup QB in this league (assuming he can continue to develop and improve his game). That's very much a positive and confirms that he has a valuable role to play. A really good backup/change of pace type guy is extremely valuable to have.

Can he become a bona fide franchise guy? Seems unlikely (to me) but if he can that's great.

I don't have a problem with him as our starter entering 2016. At least we will all get to have a good hard look at him.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

The criticism of Taylor on this website absolutely blows my mind. I have a circle of incredibly knowledgeable Bills fans friends. Every single last one of them going into the 2014 season was like, "yeah I'm all for letting EJ loose this year and giving him a shot but gun to my head, I don't think it's happening for him." Then going into this year, to a man, everyone is like, "let's call a spade a spade- EJ sucks." You would think these opinions would be uncontroversial and blatantly obvious- especially considering they were RIGHT. But somehow in the world of TBD, these were/still are? controversial thoughts.

 

Now fast forward to week 12 2015. These same people are saying, "hey I'm not necessarily sold on Taylor long term but man, after 9 starts, it's hard to complain. Think about our expectations at the QB position going into the season- the guy has obviously exceeded our wildest dreams. His numbers are fantastic, he doesn't make the big mistake, could he let loose a little more? Absolutely. But 9 games in, I'm encouraged by what I see." Once again, you would think that these would be uncontroversial opinions to have but in the magical world of TBD, these are borderline outspoken opinions. It is comforting knowing that once again, they are the CORRECT opinions. Am I guaranteeing that he is the long term answer? NO. But anyone who is not encouraged by his production so far needs to have their head examined. And the ultimate irony is that the majority of the people who are nitpicking Taylor's game after 9 starts are the SAME EXACT PEOPLE who were still holding out hope for you know who after 15 starts. It's beyond comical. I rest my case.

Get over yourself Jesus h