GG Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 I live in the state. It's purely anecdotal, but I think he's got it locked up. You are saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 I live in the state. It's purely anecdotal, but I think he's got it locked up. I live in California. It's one giant Bernie 2016 bumper sticker. He probably has it locked up, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 You are saying? Like I said GG, come November. I realize the data doesn't support my claim. The data has been wrong before. I live in California. It's one giant Bernie 2016 bumper sticker. He probably has it locked up, too. It's not the bumper stickers. But carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 Like I said GG, come November. I realize the data doesn't support my claim. The data has been wrong before. It's not the bumper stickers. But carry on. Like I said GG, come November. I realize the data doesn't support my claim. The data has been wrong before. It's not the bumper stickers. But carry on. We had a guy here in 2012 who dedicated a novel's worth of posts to debunking the polls. He was 100% wrong. Good to see history repeating itself. Unless Clinton threatens to chut down Disney World and defund social security, she'll do just fine in Florida. Doesn't look like Florida will be necessary for her at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 FLASHBACK: Gallup Had Dukakis Up by 17 at This Point in 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 We had a guy here in 2012 who dedicated a novel's worth of posts to debunking the polls. He was 100% wrong. Good to see history repeating itself. Unless Clinton threatens to chut down Disney World and defund social security, she'll do just fine in Florida. Doesn't look like Florida will be necessary for her at this point. I won't dedicate a novel's worth of posts. I think my prediction is shaky. But I can't deny what I see. We shall see though. If I'm wrong, so be it. It's a prediction made on the Internet to complete strangers. Who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 A massive new study debunks a widespread theory for Donald Trump’s success https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/08/12/a-massive-new-study-debunks-a-widespread-theory-for-donald-trumps-success/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepthefaith Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 He has a 10% stake in his Chicago property. The Trump International off Central Park is owned by the GE pension trust. In other words, they're not "his properties." They're his projects. The Chicago building is mostly condos that were sold so of course he no longer owns those. He still operates the hotel and restaurant from what I've read. Getting away from my point which is his business does well because it builds good things and provides good quality and good service too. He's a success. Obnoxious at times yes. Great as a politician, no. Great as a President, who knows but usually presidents live up or down to their unbiased expectations. In the case of Bush and Obama we really got what we should have expected. No reason to have high expectations for Hillary or Donald, especially her. She's about as bad as politicians get for all the reasons we don't like them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Trumps False Obama-ISIS Link Donald Trump claims that President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton founded ISIS. But the origin of the Islamic State terrorist group dates back to the Bush administration. Trump points to the withdrawal of troops from Iraq in 2011, under Obama, as the founding of ISIS, but experts say the expansion of the Islamic State after that point cant be pinned on the troop withdrawal alone if at all. And theres the fact that President George W. Bush had signed the agreement and set the date for that withdrawal. Furthermore, Trump himself supported withdrawing troops from Iraq as early as 2007, telling CNN in a March 16, 2007, interview that the U.S. should declare victory and leave, because Ill tell you, this country is just going to get further bogged down. [T]his is a total catastrophe and you might as well get out now, because you just are wasting time. http://www.factcheck.org/2016/08/trumps-false-obama-isis-link/ But we have no problem with the false claim the Trump is a major recruiter for ISIS, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 A massive new study debunks a widespread theory for Donald Trump’s success https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/08/12/a-massive-new-study-debunks-a-widespread-theory-for-donald-trumps-success/ From your article and I've been saying this for years. Trump is giving his supporters a misleading account of their ills, Rothwell said. "He says they are suffering because of globalization," Rothwell said. "He says they’re suffering because of immigration and a diversifying country, but I can’t find any evidence of that." Trump's support does come from a place of adversity, though, and Rothwell said Trump's prescriptions — tariffs on imported goods, restrictions on immigration and mass deportation — seem disconnected from his voters' real problems. "I don’t see how any of those things would help with their health problems, with the lack of intergenerational mobility," Rothwell said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 This is exactly correct and not a surprising find: Although Trump voters tend to be the most skeptical about immigration, they are also the least likely to actually encounter an immigrant in their neighborhood. Rothwell finds that people who live in places with many Hispanic residents or places close to the Mexican border, tend not to favor Trump — relative to otherwise similar Americans and to otherwise similar white Republicans. Among those who are similar in terms of income, education and other factors, those who view Trump favorably are more likely to be found in white enclaves — racially isolated Zip codes where the amount of diversity is lower than in surrounding areas. These places have not been effected much by immigration, and Rothwell believes that is no coincidence. He argues that when people have more personal experience of people from other countries, they develop friendlier attitudes toward immigrants. People tend to have irrational fears and behaviors towards those that they don't know. Often times, they hear about anecdotal accounts and cherry picked stats to form their opinions that get replayed over and over and over through their preferred echo chamber bullhorn. The economic malaise of the blue collar folks aren't caused by illegal immigration, not one !@#$ing iota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepthefaith Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 This is exactly correct and not a surprising find: People tend to have irrational fears and behaviors towards those that they don't know. Often times, they hear about anecdotal accounts and cherry picked stats to form their opinions that get replayed over and over and over through their preferred echo chamber bullhorn. The economic malaise of the blue collar folks aren't caused by illegal immigration, not one !@#$ing iota. So illegal labor that takes jobs below market rates doesn't displace American workers or supress wages? I have a family member in the SW U.S. who shut down his painting business because he couldn't win jobs bidding at $15-$20 hr. He was constantly undercut by illegal immigrant labor. The construction industry in non-union precincts is full of stories like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALF Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 But we have no problem with the false claim the Trump is a major recruiter for ISIS, right? Trump has no effect on recruiting for ISIS , it is what it is , he is a private citizen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 (edited) So illegal labor that takes jobs below market rates doesn't displace American workers or supress wages? I have a family member in the SW U.S. who shut down his painting business because he couldn't win jobs bidding at $15-$20 hr. He was constantly undercut by illegal immigrant labor. The construction industry in non-union precincts is full of stories like this. Statistically speaking, insignificant. Here is a pretty even-handed argument/article with studies from both sides on the effects of illegal immigration on the economy. In 2004, the Federation for American Immigration Reform, a Washington-based group that seeks to reduce immigration, calculated that undocumented workers cost Arizona taxpayers more than $1 billion a year for education, medical care and incarceration, after subtracting the estimated taxes they pay. Four years later, Judith Gans, then manager of the immigration-policy program at the University of Arizona’s Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, examined the issue for all immigrants, not just illegal ones. She concluded that immigrants accounted for nearly $1 billion more in annual tax revenue than they cost the state. Moody’s Analytics looked at Arizona’s economic output for The Wall Street Journal, with an eye toward distinguishing between the effects of the mass departures of illegal immigrants and the recession that hit the state hard beginning in 2008. It concluded that the departures alone had reduced Arizona’s gross domestic product by an average of 2% a year between 2008 and 2015. Because of the departures, total employment in the state was 2.5% lower, on average, than it otherwise would have been between 2008 and 2015, according to Moody’s. To your point: These days, construction, landscaping and agriculture industries, long dependent on migrants, complain of worker shortages. While competition for some jobs eased, there were fewer job openings overall for U.S.-born workers or legal immigrants. According to the Moody’s analysis, low-skilled U.S. natives and legal Hispanic immigrants since 2008 picked up less than 10% of the jobs once held by undocumented immigrants. In a separate analysis, economists Sarah Bohn and Magnus Lofstrom of the Public Policy Institute of California and Steven Raphael of the University of California at Berkeley conclude that employment declined for low-skilled white native workers in Arizona during 2008 and 2009, the height of the out-migration. One bright spot: the median income of low-skilled whites who did manage to get jobs rose about 6% during that period, the economists estimate. I'm not a proponent of illegal immigration, I am simply an opponent of the propagators of immigration misinformation via demagoguery. Edited August 13, 2016 by Magox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snafu Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 He has a 10% stake in his Chicago property. The Trump International off Central Park is owned by the GE pension trust. In other words, they're not "his properties." Not his properties presently, but I doubt the GE pension trust scouts out the project and procures it and starts the development of it. I know several people who do what Trump does, on a much smaller scale. They are the feet on the ground who find a development site and design it and get it started and completed. If at any point along the way, they syndicate it or find investors to join them then that's what they do. Some projects are completed and kept in the developer's portfolio. Some are sold off. Sometimes the developer likes the finished product and keeps a stake. And, yes, I know someone who puts his brand name on every project. He's built a track record and the name attracts new investors so he can keep the ball rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepthefaith Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Statistically speaking, insignificant. Here is a pretty even-handed argument/article with studies from both sides on the effects of illegal immigration on the economy. To your point: I'm not a proponent of illegal immigration, I am simply an opponent of the propagators of immigration misinformation via demagoguery. There are more than 8,000,000 illegal immigrants working in this country. That's hurting employment for many American workers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 There are more than 8,000,000 illegal immigrants working in this country. That's hurting employment for many American workers. No, it's not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 There are more than 8,000,000 illegal immigrants working in this country. That's hurting employment for many American workers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 (edited) There are more than 8,000,000 illegal immigrants working in this country. That's hurting employment for many American workers. The effect of illegals on good jobs in the US is a huge red herring issue hat feeds uninformed fears. It's a better story than reality and plays to passion and not reason. The left plays the same game with climate change. Whip up a frenzy over something that we're more likely to solve with technology than tax and regulate to any solution. Edited August 13, 2016 by Observer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 (edited) The left plays the same game with climate change.And race relations and the war on poverty. Edited August 14, 2016 by GG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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