Trump Alone at the Top

[Magox]

 

 

Completely agree on this. I don't write off Cruz vs. Hillary as quickly, but I'll be curious to see how he does if/when it's him vs. Hillary. Having to keep up with Trump is necessary, but takes Cruz away from a general message.

 

Frankly, if we could get Cruz to speak like Rubio, it would be a different story.

 

Sidenote; good to see you back. Don't spend too much time trying to converse rationally with gatorman. He's not interesting in contributing so much as getting paid to copy/paste far-left talking points and then ignoring people who easily point out the idiocy of his posts.

 

Yeah, Rubio would have been a good one. I think Rubio would have not only defeated Hillary but it could have been a landslide. Oooooh well.....

 

Cruz is a smart guy and even though he is a purist and criticizes those "mushy moderates" that run to the middle during election years, my guess is that if he wins the nomination which its looking like he could pull it off on a 2nd or 3rd ballot at the convention, he'll pivot to the middle.

 

I don't believe he is at heart as far out to the right as he has packaged himself and I think he calculated a presidential run even before he got into the senate. Very cunning. But I have my deep reservations about him in a general.

 

And thanks. Good to be back

Edited April 7, 2016 by Magox

[Azalin]

 

 

Cruz is a smart guy and even though he is a purist and criticizes those "mushy moderates" that run to the middle during election years, my guess is that if he wins the nomination which its looking like he could pull it off on a 2nd or 3rd ballot at the convention, he'll pivot to the middle.

 

I don't believe he is at heart as far out to the right as he has packaged himself and I think he calculated a presidential run even before he got into the senate. Very cunning. But I have my deep reservations about him in a general.

 

 

If Cruz isn't as far to the right as he plays himself off to be, then he's been putting up a convincing front for years. He was a TEA party favorite, after all. He also has very solid support from Texas conservatives (he has a lot of clout here for a junior Senator), but none of that precludes him from moderating his tone if he manages to win the party nomination. I'd be very surprised if he moderated anything more than his tone, though. As you say, he is indeed smart, and is skillful enough when he speaks to be convincing enough to overcome his snake-oil-salesman-like demeanor.

[IDBillzFan]

 

If Cruz isn't as far to the right as he plays himself off to be, then he's been putting up a convincing front for years. He was a TEA party favorite, after all. He also has very solid support from Texas conservatives (he has a lot of clout here for a junior Senator), but none of that precludes him from moderating his tone if he manages to win the party nomination. I'd be very surprised if he moderated anything more than his tone, though. As you say, he is indeed smart, and is skillful enough when he speaks to be convincing enough to overcome his snake-oil-salesman-like demeanor.

 

He's been a constitutional guy since forever. What I believe is that the things that scare people - his faith-driven views on marriage and abortion -- are not items that he would attempt to mandate via executive order. If he genuinely is a constitutional conservative (and his resume certainly shows that he is) he'll respect and adhere to the constitution, as opposed to taking the Obama route of treating it like his own monogrammed snotrag.

 

My concerns with Cruz is his lack of executive experience. We've seen how poorly the country is pissed on when it's being led by a short-term Senator with no executive experience.

 

This is where the right VP comes into play. Walker, Martinez, Haley or yes, even Kasich would be great for him.

 

I just wish he were a natural speaker like Rubio. He's not. He's mechanical. Fortunately, so is Hillary.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

Rubio lost his gleam during this race. I don't see anyone tapping him for VP.

 

VPs don't win races anyways.

 

Kasich could win vs Hillary.

 

The convention is going to be a blast. I hope a documentary crew with a 10 year NDA gets full access. It would be the greatest documentary of all time.

 

Rubio never had a chance, the gleam he had was merely a reflection off of the shiny turd that is Trump.

 

 

Yeah, Rubio would have been a good one. I think Rubio would have not only defeated Hillary but it could have been a landslide. Oooooh well.....

 

 

 

You're dreaming. Rubio never had a chance to win his own nomination, let alone beat Hillary. He's Hillary with a penis, only with a worse social platform.

[IDBillzFan]

Good for a quick laugh.

 

Bernie and Trump in a town hall.

 

[Magox]

 

 

 

 

You're dreaming. Rubio never had a chance to win his own nomination, let alone beat Hillary. He's Hillary with a penis, only with a worse social platform.

 

We know that you are a Rubio hater and I'm a supporter of his, so let's put that aside and go with the data points.

 

He would have easily defeated her the question is by how much?

[Deranged Rhino]

 

We know that you are a Rubio hater and I'm a supporter of his, so let's put that aside and go with the data points.

 

He would have easily defeated her the question is by how much?

 

I'm not a Rubio hater, I find the man's politics to be terribly unappealing and his candidacy to be quite weak. That's not hatred, that's just reality. He had no shot to win his own party's nomination, let alone beat the DNC in a national election. None. Zero. And the primary results make this quite clear, even if the election hadn't already been decided.

 

He won one state, PR and DC. He got slaughtered by the weakest GOP field in recent memory and you think he's going to beat the chosen one based off polling data taken before the national election even starts? Those numbers are pretty worthless considering how disastrous his campaign went and how little heat the DNC has had to put on Rubio's campaign.

 

He never had a chance to win.

[Magox]

 

 

 

He never had a chance to win.

 

Yeah, well...

[Deranged Rhino]

 

Yeah, well...

 

But unlike your opinion, mine is backed up by cold, hard, reality. He got slaughtered by Chris Christie for Pete's sake in the course of about five minutes on a debate stage. You really think he could have withstood the full on assault from the DNC during the national election? You don't think it's even in the realm of possibility that those polling numbers would change once Hillary and company turned their sites fully on Marco?

 

I understand wanting to believe in the impossible. Hell, I believe that the US government has recovered crashed technology from UFOs -- and even though there's more evidence backing up that belief than there is in the belief that Rubio would have beaten Hillary in a landslide -- I can at least be honest about the possibility that I'm wrong about that scenario.

[Magox]

 

But unlike your opinion, mine is backed up by cold, hard, reality. He got slaughtered by Chris Christie for Pete's sake in the course of about five minutes on a debate stage. You really think he could have withstood the full on assault from the DNC during the national election? You don't think it's even in the realm of possibility that those polling numbers would change once Hillary and company turned their sites fully on Marco?

 

I understand wanting to believe in the impossible. Hell, I believe that the US government has recovered crashed technology from UFOs -- and even though there's more evidence backing up that belief than there is in the belief that Rubio would have beaten Hillary in a landslide -- I can at least be honest about the possibility that I'm wrong about that scenario.

 

Yeah

[Deranged Rhino]

 

Yeah

 

Man, so you won't even admit it's possible those numbers would change? I have no idea why you'd want to dig in on such a position. Makes no sense but to each their own.

[IDBillzFan]

 

He got slaughtered by Chris Christie for Pete's sake in the course of about five minutes on a debate stage.

 

In fairness, so did Chris Christie. At the exact same time.

 

Rubio's problem was Bush. He went full gatorman on him with everything he had because he assumed, wrongly, that Rubio was the one to stop. If Bush went after Trump instead of Rubio, it's safe to say Rubio would still be in it because Trump would have paid Christie to go after Bush, not Marco.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

In fairness, so did Chris Christie. At the exact same time.

 

Rubio's problem was Bush. He went full gatorman on him with everything he had because he assumed, wrongly, that Rubio was the one to stop. If Bush went after Trump instead of Rubio, it's safe to say Rubio would still be in it because Trump would have paid Christie to go after Bush, not Marco.

 

Sure, I can buy that scenario. I still don't think that does anything to Rubio's campaign other than delaying the inevitable.

 

If Rubio couldn't withstand Chris Christie -- a flawed candidate himself -- there's no way Rubio was going to hold up in a national campaign against the DNC. None. Hillary could out-hawk him, beat him on nearly every social issue, he's as bought and paid for as she is so he'd be unable to attack her most vulnerable political trait, and she's a much more polished politician than Marco. He brings nothing to table against Hillary, even in a hypothetical.

[IDBillzFan]

 

Sure, I can buy that scenario. I still don't think that does anything to Rubio's campaign other than delaying the inevitable.

 

If Rubio couldn't withstand Chris Christie -- a flawed candidate himself -- there's no way Rubio was going to hold up in a national campaign against the DNC. None. Hillary could out-hawk him, beat him on nearly every social issue, he's as bought and paid for as she is so he'd be unable to attack her most vulnerable political trait, and she's a much more polished politician than Marco. He brings nothing to table against Hillary, even in a hypothetical.

 

The Christie attack worked because Rubio never saw it coming. The last thing he figured is that the more progressive Republican candidate (Christie) would be paid off by the devout Democrat to take him out. Undoubtedly, this is no excuse. Rubio screwed it up. But Rubio brings something to the party that no other candidate brings: he's genuine.

 

That doesn't mean he's always right and it doesn't mean it assures him a victory, but he comes across as incredibly likeable...and the one thing EVERYONE agrees is that the only person -- far and away -- less likeable than Trump, is Hillary. Rubio speaks from the heart. His comments following suspension of his campaign were probably some of the best from any candidate at any time in years.

 

One on one -- him versus Hillary -- over four or five months would be very difficult for Hillary to overcome because she does not speak from her heart. She speaks from her wallet.

[Magox]

 

If Cruz isn't as far to the right as he plays himself off to be, then he's been putting up a convincing front for years. He was a TEA party favorite, after all. He also has very solid support from Texas conservatives (he has a lot of clout here for a junior Senator), but none of that precludes him from moderating his tone if he manages to win the party nomination. I'd be very surprised if he moderated anything more than his tone, though. As you say, he is indeed smart, and is skillful enough when he speaks to be convincing enough to overcome his snake-oil-salesman-like demeanor.

 

Cruz has earned the right to be the champion for conservatives. My argument is that I don't think he is truly as far-right as he has portrayed himself, that all along he knew the government shutdown and other actions that have alienated himself among his colleagues was an act. He knew all along that these tactics never had a shot of actually working and with the help from the conservative media hucksters (Levin, Rush, Ingraham, Hannity etc etc) that this would give him lots of cred. Judging his history before he was senator and who his wife is, I think he is more pragmatic than people believe.

 

Having said that, his conservative purity and tactics have boxed him in for the general election. I do believe that he will attempt to moderate his tone and he would have his position on immigration if Rubio hadn't have forced him to be equivocate his opposition to legalizing the illegals. It's going to be very tough for Cruz to win states like Florida, CO, and VA. Hard to see a GOP candidate winning without at least two of those states.

 

That's where Rubio would have had a much bigger advantage over the rest of the field, even though his positions are very conservative (aside from immigration), his tone and demeanor is that of a moderate, which is appealing to many swing voters, and that bared out with his dominance over Hillary in the polls.

 

We'll see how this plays out, N.Y is a very important state, if Trump runs away with it and gets over 50% of the vote, he will get very close to 1237 imo. And getting very close to 1237 increases his odds of winning on the 2nd ballot. At this point it's almost a toss up who will get the nomination, Cruz's organization is really good and I see him snagging a lot more uncommitted delegates than Trump. The question is can he get above 50%?

 

Either way, I see 2016 presidential elections as a lost cause. Never mind the deficiencies Cruz has for general election appeal, Trump has a hardcore 15-20% constituency and do you really think that most of his hard core supporters are going to vote for Cruz when they believe Trump had been robbed at the convention? Trump will very likely win a solid plurality of the votes and in their view that means he should get the nomination. People don't understand these convention rules, they just see who won the most votes. The RNC would be smart to spend a higher amount of it's resources in protecting seats relative to the presidency than in past years. I guarantee you that the Koch network will do that.

 

This is where things stand as of now and it's not pretty.

Edited April 8, 2016 by Magox

[Azalin]

 

My concerns with Cruz is his lack of executive experience. We've seen how poorly the country is pissed on when it's being led by a short-term Senator with no executive experience.

 

This is where the right VP comes into play. Walker, Martinez, Haley or yes, even Kasich would be great for him.

 

Agreed 100%

[Deranged Rhino]

The Christie attack worked because Rubio never saw it coming. The last thing he figured is that the more progressive Republican candidate (Christie) would be paid off by the devout Democrat to take him out. Undoubtedly, this is no excuse. Rubio screwed it up. But Rubio brings something to the party that no other candidate brings: he's genuine.

 

That doesn't mean he's always right and it doesn't mean it assures him a victory, but he comes across as incredibly likeable...and the one thing EVERYONE agrees is that the only person -- far and away -- less likeable than Trump, is Hillary. Rubio speaks from the heart. His comments following suspension of his campaign were probably some of the best from any candidate at any time in years.

 

One on one -- him versus Hillary -- over four or five months would be very difficult for Hillary to overcome because she does not speak from her heart. She speaks from her wallet.

Where we disagree is with Rubio being genuine. He's not. He's as bought and paid for as Hillary. He's also as self absorbed as she is. He speaks from his wallet as much as she does, which is why he'd get slaughtered by her. Give the DNC machine five months to focus solely on Marco and he'd be toast.

 

Rubio never had a chance to win the nomination let alone the presidency. Maybe in a few more cycles, maybe.

[Observer]

 

Cruz has earned the right to be the champion for conservatives. My argument is that I don't think he is truly as far-right as he has portrayed himself, that all along he knew the government shutdown and other actions that have alienated himself among his colleagues was an act. He knew all along that these tactics never had a shot of actually working and with the help from the conservative media hucksters (Levin, Rush, Ingraham, Hannity etc etc) that this would give him lots of cred. Judging his history before he was senator and who his wife is, I think he is more pragmatic than people believe.

 

Having said that, his conservative purity and tactics have boxed him in for the general election. I do believe that he will attempt to moderate his tone and he would have his position on immigration if Rubio hadn't have forced him to be equivocate his opposition to legalizing the illegals. It's going to be very tough for Cruz to win states like Florida, CO, and VA. Hard to see a GOP candidate winning without at least two of those states.

 

That's where Rubio would have had a much bigger advantage over the rest of the field, even though his positions are very conservative (aside from immigration), his tone and demeanor is that of a moderate, which is appealing to many swing voters, and that bared out with his dominance over Hillary in the polls.

 

We'll see how this plays out, N.Y is a very important state, if Trump runs away with it and gets over 50% of the vote, he will get very close to 1237 imo. And getting very close to 1237 increases his odds of winning on the 2nd ballot. At this point it's almost a toss up who will get the nomination, Cruz's organization is really good and I see him snagging a lot more uncommitted delegates than Trump. The question is can he get above 50%?

 

Either way, I see 2016 presidential elections as a lost cause. Never mind the deficiencies Cruz has for general election appeal, Trump has a hardcore 15-20% constituency and do you really think that most of his hard core supporters are going to vote for Cruz when they believe Trump had been robbed at the convention? Trump will very likely win a solid plurality of the votes and in their view that means he should get the nomination. People don't understand these convention rules, they just see who won the most votes. The RNC would be smart to spend a higher amount of it's resources in protecting seats relative to the presidency than in past years. I guarantee you that the Koch network will do that.

 

This is where things stand as of now and it's not pretty.

 

If Trump doesn't get to 1237, he won't leave the convention as the winner. Delegates who abandon their first ballot won't be rushing to him. They will be rushing away from him.

 

You underestimate the damage Rubio did to himself. I started this process with Rubio as my top choice by far. I not only thought he would win the nomination, I thought he'd kill Hillary. But the campaign killed him. The campaign exposed that he was a weak candidate and stunning to say it but Christie left him bloodied and dead in that debate moment. And he was a shill of the donors. It will be one and done for him--if he runs again, he can only do worse.

 

Cruz is nowhere near as calculating as you give him credit for. He may moderate his message a little but he's got the "no-compromise" Evangelical Right streak that will never move the country forward. He's got no shot at beating Clinton even if he somehow gets the nomination.

 

Best case is thin-skinned Kasich or a person not yet known.

Edited April 8, 2016 by Observer

[Magox]

 

If Trump doesn't get to 1237, he won't leave the convention as the winner. Delegates who abandon their first ballot won't be rushing to him. They will be rushing away from him.

 

You underestimate the damage Rubio did to himself. I started this process with Rubio as my top choice by far. I not only thought he would win the nomination, I thought he'd kill Hillary. But the campaign killed him. The campaign exposed that he was a weak candidate and stunning to say it but Christie left him bloodied and dead in that debate moment. And he was a shill of the donors. It will be one and done for him--if he runs again, he can only do worse.

 

Cruz is nowhere near as calculating as you give him credit for. He may moderate his message a little but he's got the "no-compromise" Evangelical Right streak that will never move the country forward. He's got no shot at beating Clinton even if he somehow gets the nomination.

 

Best case is thin-skinned Kasich or a person not yet known.

 

No doubt, if Rubio hadn't have had those fateful 5 minutes from the C.C debate, he'd be the front runner right now. That's the way it goes, he'll be back for 2020.

[keepthefaith]

 

No doubt, if Rubio hadn't have had those fateful 5 minutes from the C.C debate, he'd be the front runner right now. That's the way it goes, he'll be back for 2020.

Rubio should have a bright political career ahead of him. He's got the tools and his head and heart are mostly in the right place IMO. Surprised he's not running for re-election to the senate but maybe Florida rules don't allow that? His resume is a little light yet IMO. He needs to age a bit and get some more experience in something meaningful. He's so damn young looking (which will serve him well later) but some that I know feel that he sounded inexperienced at times and his looks unfortunately backed that up rightly or wrongly.