Mario Williams a Buffalo Bill next year?

[dave mcbride]

 

Watch the games, not the numbers. He's been performing very well outside of rushing the passer -- which we've seen is the result of scheme more so than any decline in play.

Saying that "setting the edge" isn't important is just silly. It's fundamental to any good defensive scheme. It's paramount.

 

To repeat, I do watch the games. My counter-advice to you is to not wish away the stats. Numbers can lie, but when they all point in one direction, it's time to consider the statistical evidence. He is playing terribly regardless of scheme. Hughes is playing decently, as is Dareus. Kyle Williams was playing fairly well before getting hurt. None of them are great, but Mario is the only one who has devolved into being a non-producer. As for "setting the edge," no one is saying that it's irrelevant. What I'm saying is that disruptive pass rushers who can destroy a passing game (JJ Watt) and who are among the highest paid players in the league aren't being paid to set the edge. Disrupting the passing game is what DEs get paid for. Let's compare him with a guy who played the same position as him the last couple of years - Wilkerson. Wilkerson has a better body for the position in Rex's scheme, true, but he was flat out better tin 2013 and 2014 than Williams is this year. And yes, Williams does look disengaged more than rarely too. He may not like the defense he's playing in, but he's making a crapload of money. Dislike of the scheme is a terrible excuse to malinger given the salary he's receiving.

 

I think Rex's d has been a failure this year, but the truth of the matter is that his defenses going back to 2006 or so have always been in the top tier -- until now. I blame a lot of it on the pass rush, and in particular the guy who is supposed to be getting to the QB and disrupting the passing game more than anyone in the league outside of JJ Watt: Mario Williams.

 

Look, he's had a fairly good career in Buffalo until now, and the Bills got three good seasons (one solid, one very good, and one great) out of him. This was never going to be a six year deal anyway given the structure of the contract. I never thought he was going to be here in year 6, and now I don't think he'll be here for year 5 given the decline. That's fine - we'll have paid $65 million for three top-end seasons at a premium position. That's not a bad deal in the world of big-time sports contracts. I'll take it.

 

I do think he'll go to a D next year that's a better fit, and I expect him to put up solid numbers. That said, not being scheme-versatile is not an attribute, and it's not a good excuse when the salary is so big. Rather, it's a flaw.

Surprised we are so quick to cut Kyle....I think he wants to finish here and will work with the FO.

 

But as We have seen, the NE model is to get rid of guys just past their prime and let someone else overpay for past performance.

I'd be surprised if they cut Kyle Williams. He's not that expensive, he's good when he's healthy, and he was playing reasonably well before getting hurt. His injury wasn't that bad either. The wild-card factor will be age-related decline (he's 33 next year), but if he's OK he's going to be better than almost anyone else out there. Plus $5 million is cheap.

Edited December 4, 2015 by dave mcbride

[billsfan_34]

Restructure or gone- way over paid as is right now.

[machine gun kelly]

So many people on this board are so quick to want to get rid of the most talented people on this team, which lends to feeling that we must have the best front office in the league to replace them in free agency and the draft, and then there is a perpensity to want to get rid of the front office as Whaley and company have done such a poor job.

 

Which is it? You don't cut top notch people unless you have a plan to replace.

 

I'm not sure what to do as Rex's scheme is too prescriptive, meaning he doesn't adjust to his players but expects players to adjust to him which is a limitation as a coach, yet, i know for business reasons we won't get rid of him. It's a rock and a hard place.

[3rdand12]

IIRC when Mario signed here it was part of the agreement that he would play 4-3 DE on the left side. He did not want anything to do with a 3-4 when he came here.

 

I can't say I fault him for being upset now

Thats fact too.

Good memory. email that to D. Thurman for us please.

 

just let the Man do that. sure swap he and Hughes once in a great while.

Let a LB set the damned Edge already!!

He is definitely gone.

 

Look at his most recent comments. He hates the scheme and rightfully so.

 

Him and Kyle will be gone and Rex will bring in a bunch of Jets.

 

He has essentially torn down a great defense and will begin rebuilding it for the players that fit what he wants to do.

Yep . Bring in a bunch of jets is what they will do.

 

If they coulda got David Harris somehow this Defense would be a lot farther along.

When the Bills switch defenses again in another year he will be right back on top, so might as well try and keep him.

LOL i forgot how many times Bills have done this exercise the last 6 or so years.

 

No wonder Whaley looks lost at times /sarcasm

[3rdand12]

Has Rex always been known for his blitzing?

 

I thought his defenses were mostly known for their coverage skills

 

 

Maybe we are starting to see that here

 

 

CBF

I may be out of line here, but i dont care about that at all.

 

rex is about getting turnover from lbs and DB. By creating pressure. whether real or perceived.

People that keep critiquing the stat sheet, and those that wish for last years defensive methods are just going to be unhappy. As are some of the players up front.

The CBs love this stuff.

If some folks dug into rex's long term background and who he learned under and or apprenticed to might have a better opinion on him.

Agreed its not going all that well right now. but he has a method.

Having the safeties hurt and the linebackers struggling mentally is on him to work around.

 

Mario may not fit the big picture. The man can still play ball , and someone will want him to "just rush the passer"

 

I dont think Rex needs him. He would rather have Wilfork or Ted Washington

 

I am hoping Mario, Kyle and McKelvin are cut next year, better cap flexibility going forward.

 

The casuals will go crazy though.

Why do you want to save money?

Do you have a plan?

If you were smart you would be hoping those 3 would be willing to take a pay cut so Bills could pick up better players than AJ Tarpley and Duke Williams and Seantrel Henderson.

[3rdand12]

 

I doubt McKelvin will be back.

Because?

 

So many people on this board are so quick to want to get rid of the most talented people on this team, which lends to feeling that we must have the best front office in the league to replace them in free agency and the draft, and then there is a perpensity to want to get rid of the front office as Whaley and company have done such a poor job.

 

Which is it? You don't cut top notch people unless you have a plan to replace.

 

I'm not sure what to do as Rex's scheme is too prescriptive, meaning he doesn't adjust to his players but expects players to adjust to him which is a limitation as a coach, yet, i know for business reasons we won't get rid of him. It's a rock and a hard place.

Very good post Kelly.

Not surprised though.

 

the Rex factor is having a strong affect on us Fans perspective.

 

 

I say ..take his fridge away.

[Blokestradamus]

Genuinely hope he is. Also that he's used properly next year. Mario is a freaky athletic dude with long arms, let him play 5-tech and prosper.

 

Some form of restructure seems inevitable but it makes very little sense to get rid of him unless he's so against playing any part in a 3-4.

[Deranged Rhino]

Because?.

Because it'll save them 4 million and change in cap room.

[3rdand12]

Genuinely hope he is. Also that he's used properly next year. Mario is a freaky athletic dude with long arms, let him play 5-tech and prosper.

 

Some form of restructure seems inevitable but it makes very little sense to get rid of him unless he's so against playing any part in a 3-4.

This is the thing. Why does he seem unhappy?

Hot flashes, cramping?

but why cant Thurman sell him to play at full tilt ?

Or make him more effective. How many tackles does he have?

 

Not much gets past him honestly.

Because it'll save them 4 million and change in cap room.

Meh.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

 

rex is about getting turnover from lbs and DB. By creating pressure. whether real or perceived.

 

 

Rex D isn't focused on turnovers......it's focus is creating 3 and outs.

 

The lack of turnovers is a weakness of his scheme.

[3rdand12]

 

Rex D isn't focused on turnovers......it's focus is creating 3 and outs.

 

The lack of turnovers is a weakness of his scheme.

Your point is well taken.

 

his threat is the turnover via the pass game.

 

Stop the run manage the pass game is what i have seen. for better or worse.

Very down and distance aware.

[BrooklynBills]

 

 

I agree

 

 

I can see this next draft being 90% defense with us neglecting the OL

 

 

 

CBF

 

They will address the defense with vet FAs and draft offense IMO. They could release Mario and sign 3 starters at NT, OLB, and S. I'd be targeting Damon Harrison or Terrance Knighton at NT, Courtney Upshaw, Nick Perry, or Vinny Curry at OLB, and Mark Barron at S. They already have their anchors at each level in Dareus, Hughes, and Gilmore. McKelvin, Bradham, and maybe Corey Graham will also not be back. They like Kyle Williams and he was playing well before he was hurt so I could see him back, but at his age I wouldn't be surprised if he is gone also. If they keep up their pace for the season, we will be drafting in the 10-15 range. I would bet 3 out of our first 4 picks would be on offense: QB, T, WR(not in that order).

 

As soon as they signed Rex, you'd have to be very naive to think they wouldn't be changing things on defense. They just signed him. He's not getting fired. Get guys who can play in his defense via FA, keep your young scheme diverse talent on D(Dareus, Hughes, Gilmore, Darby, A. Williams), and draft offense.

[dave mcbride]

So many people on this board are so quick to want to get rid of the most talented people on this team, which lends to feeling that we must have the best front office in the league to replace them in free agency and the draft, and then there is a perpensity to want to get rid of the front office as Whaley and company have done such a poor job.

 

Which is it? You don't cut top notch people unless you have a plan to replace.

 

I'm not sure what to do as Rex's scheme is too prescriptive, meaning he doesn't adjust to his players but expects players to adjust to him which is a limitation as a coach, yet, i know for business reasons we won't get rid of him. It's a rock and a hard place.

Go to footballoutsiders.com. He's the worst rated LDE in the NFL by far.

Genuinely hope he is. Also that he's used properly next year. Mario is a freaky athletic dude with long arms, let him play 5-tech and prosper.

 

Some form of restructure seems inevitable but it makes very little sense to get rid of him unless he's so against playing any part in a 3-4.

His wingspan, while not small, ain't that big. Wilkerson's dwarfs it (easy to google).

 

As I said above (not directed at you), scheme non-versatility is a bug, not a feature, especIally for a guy with nearly a $100 million contract.

They will address the defense with vet FAs and draft offense IMO. They could release Mario and sign 3 starters at NT, OLB, and S. I'd be targeting Damon Harrison or Terrance Knighton at NT, Courtney Upshaw, Nick Perry, or Vinny Curry at OLB, and Mark Barron at S. They already have their anchors at each level in Dareus, Hughes, and Gilmore. McKelvin, Bradham, and maybe Corey Graham will also not be back. They like Kyle Williams and he was playing well before he was hurt so I could see him back, but at his age I wouldn't be surprised if he is gone also. If they keep up their pace for the season, we will be drafting in the 10-15 range. I would bet 3 out of our first 4 picks would be on offense: QB, T, WR(not in that order).

 

As soon as they signed Rex, you'd have to be very naive to think they wouldn't be changing things on defense. They just signed him. He's not getting fired. Get guys who can play in his defense via FA, keep your young scheme diverse talent on D(Dareus, Hughes, Gilmore, Darby, A. Williams), and draft offense.

Good post! Where do you live in Brooklyn? I'm in Park Slope.

Edited December 5, 2015 by dave mcbride

[Blokestradamus]

His wingspan, while not small, ain't that big. Wilkerson's dwarfs it (easy to google).

 

Wilkerson is in the 96th percentile (from Mockdraftable) when it comes to arm length in terms of interior DL so he's very nearly in a class of his own. Mario is at 33 7/8", whereas the positional average over the draft classes Mockdraftable has archived is 33.24" so he's hardly lacking. When you look at his explosion compared to your regular IDL, it's off the charts. When Wilkerson's numbers are put into context in terms of weight density, you can see that he's just as much of a freak as Mario is athletically.

 

Henry Anderson was my 5-tech of choice in the last class and he's pretty much the physical prototype. 6'6", 294 pounds, 33 1/2" arms.

[Mister Defense]

Mario Williams was very effective when he has a decent DC and defensive scheme.

 

you cant expect your most influential pass rusher to do his job when the scheme is forcing him to drop into coverage.

 

how is this on Mario? last season vs this season. ONE important element has changed, and it isn't Mario.

 

Rex's approach and scheme are bad, not Mario.

 

Yes, but it seems really obvious. I hope it is. Mario is a dominant force on the defense, but just like almost all of the Bills players now, not on this defense.

 

If the Bills now start getting rid of players not meeting their potential on this very poorly coached defense, the 7-9, 8-8 type of records the Bills will still be able to pull out despite their head coach will become 3-13, 2-14 after he is fired at the end of next year (though I am now thinking at the end of this year, despite the $$).

 

I think Whaley and the Pegulas see what we see and won't let that happen, know, like us, that they have likely made a bad mistake in hiring their head coach. They won't jettison players that they know are good/great to bring in ones that better fit the scheme of a head coach who is on very thin ice this year and who seems destined to fall through soon.

 

Just as a business should not let their top talent go because a poorly performing new CEO doesn't work well with those people. It is a recipe for a precipitous fall.

[BuffaloBillsForever]

 

They will address the defense with vet FAs and draft offense IMO. They could release Mario and sign 3 starters at NT, OLB, and S. I'd be targeting Damon Harrison or Terrance Knighton at NT, Courtney Upshaw, Nick Perry, or Vinny Curry at OLB, and Mark Barron at S. They already have their anchors at each level in Dareus, Hughes, and Gilmore. McKelvin, Bradham, and maybe Corey Graham will also not be back. They like Kyle Williams and he was playing well before he was hurt so I could see him back, but at his age I wouldn't be surprised if he is gone also. If they keep up their pace for the season, we will be drafting in the 10-15 range. I would bet 3 out of our first 4 picks would be on offense: QB, T, WR(not in that order).

 

As soon as they signed Rex, you'd have to be very naive to think they wouldn't be changing things on defense. They just signed him. He's not getting fired. Get guys who can play in his defense via FA, keep your young scheme diverse talent on D(Dareus, Hughes, Gilmore, Darby, A. Williams), and draft offense.

 

That's what I would do. The free agent class has a ton of depth at DE and NT. I would clean house on the defensive line, in the process cutting major salaries, freeing up cap space and declining years of contract. Address the loss of Kyle and Mario via free agency. I would also look at safety and CB via free agency rather than the draft as well.

Edited December 5, 2015 by BuffaloBillsForever

[1B4IDie]

With the contracts of Gilmore, Glenn and Incognito forth coming. Does Mario become a cap casualty next year/ His release would free up almost 13 million.

Mario and Clay are all going to re-neg to reduce their 2015 Salary hit.

The player will always take more money up front and the team will always add more years to spread the upfront money out.

It is a win-win for everyone.

 

It's probably already been worked out especially in Clay's place. They had to balloon his salary so Miami couldn't match but a player would rather have signing money than a game check.

[dave mcbride]

Wilkerson is in the 96th percentile (from Mockdraftable) when it comes to arm length in terms of interior DL so he's very nearly in a class of his own. Mario is at 33 7/8", whereas the positional average over the draft classes Mockdraftable has archived is 33.24" so he's hardly lacking. When you look at his explosion compared to your regular IDL, it's off the charts. When Wilkerson's numbers are put into context in terms of weight density, you can see that he's just as much of a freak as Mario is athletically.

 

Henry Anderson was my 5-tech of choice in the last class and he's pretty much the physical prototype. 6'6", 294 pounds, 33 1/2" arms.

Good info - thanks. As I say above, Mario was great last season. Age may be becoming a factor, but in any event the decline ain't all scheme related. I don't think he has a small wingspan by any stretch; just compared to Wilkerson's.

 

On an unrelated note, I see no need to cut the relatively cheap Kyle Williams provided he's healthy. He was playing pretty well before he got hurt.

Edited December 5, 2015 by dave mcbride

[vincec]

Mario certainly has the ability to play 3-4 DE but I don't think he wants to so that will play into this as well. And actually, he's the 3-4 best fitting DL that they have. They don't have anyone big enough to play NT and K Williams and Dareus are not fast enough to be ideal DEs, IMO. That would mean starting over with the DL basically.

[BADOLBILZ]

Good info - thanks. As I say above, Mario was great last season. Age may be becoming a factor, but in any event the decline ain't all scheme related. I don't think he has a small wingspan by any stretch; just compared to Wilkerson's.

 

On an unrelated note, I see no need to cut the relatively cheap Kyle Williams provided he's healthy. He was playing pretty well before he got hurt.

 

With the cap likely going up $10M I expect the pickings in free agency to be ultra-slim this offseason so the opportunities to re-tool the roster will likely be a bit more limited versus last season.

 

That may lead to an improved trade market for some highly priced, underperforming veterans at key positions.

 

Maybe Rex will have it out with the Pegula's and decide to call it quits and take a buyout and go to work as a tv analyst so we don't have to replace 6 guys on D.

 

The Bills are at a point in Buddy/Doug's rebuild when they should be adding to strengths instead of patching holes because of bad scheme fits.