Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

CBS with Spread (Bills +7.5) : 5 take the Pats and 3 take the Bills. (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/against-the-spread/11)

CBS Straight Up: Clean sweep, all 8 take the Pats. (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/straight-up/11)

ESPN: 12 and "pick'em" take the Pats, 1 (Allen) took the Bills. (http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks)

Microsoft Cortana (Went 4-10 in week 10): Patriots 79% chance of winning. (http://www.cortanapredictions.com/)

FiveThirtyEight: (Went 4-10 in week 10): Patriots 84% chance of winning with an Elo point spread of 11.5. (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/)

Amos: (Went 5-9 in week 10) Patriots 85% chance of winning. (http://trevorbischoff.com/nfl-2015-week-11-predictions/)

FiveThirtyEight predicts a 9-7 season record for the Bills this season with a 36% (up from 28%) chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% (unchanged) chance of winning it all.

Amos predicts a 9-7 season record for the Bills.

SportsClubStats (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html) predicts a record of 9-7 for the Bills this season with a 40.9% (up from 28.9%) chance of making the playoffs.

post-11748-0-53602900-1447771677_thumb.png

Edited by CodeMonkey
  • Replies 49
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted (edited)

I'd be shocked if anyone picks the Bills. The numbers are just too strong to the contrary.

 

 

Ditka will

But if they do manage to shock the NFL world, SportsClubStats probability of making the playoffs goes from 41.6% to 61.5% :)

 

Besides, almost half the people here do! ;)

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/182809-week-11-mnf-patriots-game-preparation-bills-75/

Edited by CodeMonkey
Posted

The table is set for the Bills to win next Monday, the only question is if they will be hungry enough to eat.

 

1. The Patriots are beat up, no Lewis, no Edelman and a beat up Offensive line.

2. Pats coming off an emotional come from behind win against the only team to give them trouble in recent years.

3.Pats due for an emotional let down game, hard to get geared up to play the lowly Bills who you owned for a decade.

4. Bills have extra time to prepare and rest their players.

5. Rex is due for a big game on national TV against his arch rival.

6. Things change sooner or later, why not now.

Posted

We will get people that pick us with the spread. Someone will be bold enough to pick us straight up. The only guy that did last week was Sanders and they were merciless in ribbing him for it and he ended up looking wise.

Posted

The table is set for the Bills to win next Monday, the only question is if they will be hungry enough to eat.

 

1. The Patriots are beat up, no Lewis, no Edelman and a beat up Offensive line.

2. Pats coming off an emotional come from behind win against the only team to give them trouble in recent years.

3.Pats due for an emotional let down game, hard to get geared up to play the lowly Bills who you owned for a decade.

4. Bills have extra time to prepare and rest their players.

5. Rex is due for a big game on national TV against his arch rival.

6. Things change sooner or later, why not now.

You forgot that Belicheck LOOOOOVVVVVESSSS to beat Rex

Posted

They all did, Amos as well.

Yeah, just looking at the ESPN picks, didn't realize how many consensus games there were... especially surprised how many chose the Raiders over Vikings... and then combined with a few upsets. Ooomph.

Posted

Boomer will. No not the QB.

 

So much for Analytics.. That is why they play the games. Upsets happen!!!

Do you need a computer to say the team with the better record wins?
Posted

Boomer will. No not the QB.

So much for Analytics.. That is why they play the games. Upsets happen!!!

Yeah particularly true in tackle football for two reasons:

1) So few games are played in a season.

2) It is such a violent game that injuries happen frequently, and injuries can and usually do have a big impact on the games.

Posted

Actually it'd be unusual for a statistical model like this to NOT have "bad" weeks like this.

 

Here's a simple example: Flip a regular coin 100 times. A result of 50 heads and 50 tails is the statistical average, but it's a very unlikely result. No one who gets 36 heads and 64 tails is going to think it's a "bad" result. Statistically it would make perfect sense.

 

The above example is for a situation with precisely known odds that don't change over the course of the event. The models for football games use odds that are much less presciently known and, as noted already, those odds change during the game and season. Those changes are incorporated into the models as the season goes on.

 

You have to understand what a model is really telling you. For instance, 538's preseason model of final records showed a narrow band of records, from about 5.5 wins to about 10.5 wins. That isn't to say that the model doesn't think there will be teams at 3-13 or 14-2. It just doesn't know which ones will. One projected with 10 wins has better odds of getting to 14-2 than one projected with 6 however. Their predictions aren't gospel, but they do shed light on things if used and considered properly.

×
×
  • Create New...