CodeMonkey Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 (edited) CBS with Spread (Bills +7.5) : 5 take the Pats and 3 take the Bills. (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/against-the-spread/11)CBS Straight Up: Clean sweep, all 8 take the Pats. (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/straight-up/11)ESPN: 12 and "pick'em" take the Pats, 1 (Allen) took the Bills. (http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks)Microsoft Cortana (Went 4-10 in week 10): Patriots 79% chance of winning. (http://www.cortanapredictions.com/)FiveThirtyEight: (Went 4-10 in week 10): Patriots 84% chance of winning with an Elo point spread of 11.5. (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/)Amos: (Went 5-9 in week 10) Patriots 85% chance of winning. (http://trevorbischoff.com/nfl-2015-week-11-predictions/)FiveThirtyEight predicts a 9-7 season record for the Bills this season with a 36% (up from 28%) chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% (unchanged) chance of winning it all.Amos predicts a 9-7 season record for the Bills.SportsClubStats (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html) predicts a record of 9-7 for the Bills this season with a 40.9% (up from 28.9%) chance of making the playoffs. Edited November 23, 2015 by CodeMonkey
Boatdrinks Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 I'd be shocked if anyone picks the Bills. The numbers are just too strong to the contrary.
YoloinOhio Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 I'd be shocked if anyone picks the Bills. The numbers are just too strong to the contrary.Ditka will
CodeMonkey Posted November 16, 2015 Author Posted November 16, 2015 (edited) I'd be shocked if anyone picks the Bills. The numbers are just too strong to the contrary. Ditka will But if they do manage to shock the NFL world, SportsClubStats probability of making the playoffs goes from 41.6% to 61.5% Besides, almost half the people here do! http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/182809-week-11-mnf-patriots-game-preparation-bills-75/ Edited November 16, 2015 by CodeMonkey
bisonbrigade Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 The table is set for the Bills to win next Monday, the only question is if they will be hungry enough to eat. 1. The Patriots are beat up, no Lewis, no Edelman and a beat up Offensive line. 2. Pats coming off an emotional come from behind win against the only team to give them trouble in recent years. 3.Pats due for an emotional let down game, hard to get geared up to play the lowly Bills who you owned for a decade. 4. Bills have extra time to prepare and rest their players. 5. Rex is due for a big game on national TV against his arch rival. 6. Things change sooner or later, why not now.
SF Bills Fan Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 We will get people that pick us with the spread. Someone will be bold enough to pick us straight up. The only guy that did last week was Sanders and they were merciless in ribbing him for it and he ended up looking wise.
BuffaloBaumer Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 The table is set for the Bills to win next Monday, the only question is if they will be hungry enough to eat. 1. The Patriots are beat up, no Lewis, no Edelman and a beat up Offensive line. 2. Pats coming off an emotional come from behind win against the only team to give them trouble in recent years. 3.Pats due for an emotional let down game, hard to get geared up to play the lowly Bills who you owned for a decade. 4. Bills have extra time to prepare and rest their players. 5. Rex is due for a big game on national TV against his arch rival. 6. Things change sooner or later, why not now. You forgot that Belicheck LOOOOOVVVVVESSSS to beat Rex
CodeMonkey Posted November 16, 2015 Author Posted November 16, 2015 You forgot that Belicheck LOOOOOVVVVVESSSS to beat Rex And it's a prime time monday night game.
bobblehead Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 Are these sites even going to bother making a pick?
Kelly the Dog Posted November 17, 2015 Posted November 17, 2015 As an expert on Bills Pats games, I think the Bills have a less than minus-five percent chance of winning outright, and yet will beat the spread.
Dorkington Posted November 17, 2015 Posted November 17, 2015 Wow, Cortana and FiveThirtyEight had rough goings last week.
CodeMonkey Posted November 17, 2015 Author Posted November 17, 2015 Wow, Cortana and FiveThirtyEight had rough goings last week. They all did, Amos as well.
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted November 17, 2015 Posted November 17, 2015 Ditka will Boomer will. No not the QB. Wow, Cortana and FiveThirtyEight had rough goings last week. So much for Analytics.. That is why they play the games. Upsets happen!!!
PromoTheRobot Posted November 17, 2015 Posted November 17, 2015 You forgot that Belicheck LOOOOOVVVVVESSSS to beat RexAnd the Patriots are emotionless robots.
Dorkington Posted November 17, 2015 Posted November 17, 2015 They all did, Amos as well. Yeah, just looking at the ESPN picks, didn't realize how many consensus games there were... especially surprised how many chose the Raiders over Vikings... and then combined with a few upsets. Ooomph.
PromoTheRobot Posted November 17, 2015 Posted November 17, 2015 Boomer will. No not the QB. So much for Analytics.. That is why they play the games. Upsets happen!!! Do you need a computer to say the team with the better record wins?
starrymessenger Posted November 17, 2015 Posted November 17, 2015 This game is going take a different than expected turn. Either a much closer game than anticipated or Bills win with a relatively comfortable margin.
CodeMonkey Posted November 17, 2015 Author Posted November 17, 2015 Boomer will. No not the QB. So much for Analytics.. That is why they play the games. Upsets happen!!! Yeah particularly true in tackle football for two reasons: 1) So few games are played in a season. 2) It is such a violent game that injuries happen frequently, and injuries can and usually do have a big impact on the games.
BarleyNY Posted November 17, 2015 Posted November 17, 2015 Actually it'd be unusual for a statistical model like this to NOT have "bad" weeks like this. Here's a simple example: Flip a regular coin 100 times. A result of 50 heads and 50 tails is the statistical average, but it's a very unlikely result. No one who gets 36 heads and 64 tails is going to think it's a "bad" result. Statistically it would make perfect sense. The above example is for a situation with precisely known odds that don't change over the course of the event. The models for football games use odds that are much less presciently known and, as noted already, those odds change during the game and season. Those changes are incorporated into the models as the season goes on. You have to understand what a model is really telling you. For instance, 538's preseason model of final records showed a narrow band of records, from about 5.5 wins to about 10.5 wins. That isn't to say that the model doesn't think there will be teams at 3-13 or 14-2. It just doesn't know which ones will. One projected with 10 wins has better odds of getting to 14-2 than one projected with 6 however. Their predictions aren't gospel, but they do shed light on things if used and considered properly.
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