Sandy McFiddish Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 We have the final playofff spot now, it is just up to us to retain it.
hondo in seattle Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 These models are based on algorithms that attempt to predict future performance based on past performance. I hope this turns out to be a flawed approach. * The offense is still getting better in the first year of Roman's system. The TT-Watkins-Shady combo is still improving. More importantly, the triplets are healthy now and hopefully remain so for the rest of the season. * The defense is still getting better in the first year of Rex' system - which has obviously been a problematic transition. Execution will improve as the season progresses. I'm not convinced that the Bills we've seen at the beginning of the season are the same Bills we'll see at the end. I think there are sound reasons to expect an uptick in performance.
eball Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 KC has four division games left -- why is that an "easy" schedule? A week ago Oakland was the greatest thing since sliced bread, but now they will be two easy Ws for KC? Same goes for SD -- sure, they aren't great, but they've been competitive in every game and have a good veteran QB. Bottom line -- the Bills control their own destiny and are capable of beating or losing to anyone on their remaining schedule. If they go 4-3 they're probably in; 5-2 almost certainly. Let the chips fall where they may.
Sandy McFiddish Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 You can also look at it optimistically that the chance based on this alogorithm went frolm 17% to 37% in 3 weeks.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 Steal a win @ NE and the Jax loss never happened. True- no Edelman, and probably feeling pretty invincible after taking the traditional David to their Goliath.. Coming off a long rest. They are never going to have a better chance to take them down.
BillsFan130 Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 Just beat the chiefs and they shouldn't have to worry about it. It would be a 2 game swing plus bills would have the tie breaker
bisonbrigade Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 KC still has to play Oakland twice and and San Diego twice. If you think they are sweeping both teams without Charles you are crazy.
dulles Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 I've done my own playoff calculations and I've determined that the Jacksonville loss really, really, really, really, really hurt us. Kinda reminds me of Oakland.
CardinalScotts Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 I'd be over the moon if we somehow get a victory in NE. It'd change all my perceptions about this team. quit comparing them to the patriots
Livinginthepast Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 Why have we played KC so often in the last 5 years?
Oberyn Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 (edited) You guys are crazy. KC loses this week to SD, and I would not be at all surprised if they lose both games to Oakland. I mean, they win once against a team who has a historically bad QB performance and people are ready to put them into the superbowl. The 2 wildcard teams will be some combination of Bills, Steelers, Raiders and Jests. Edited November 16, 2015 by Oberyn
flmike Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 If we can't beat an average Chiefs team with everyone healthy (assuming no new injuries in the Pats game), are we really playoff material? This. Getting to the playoffs is nice, but if we stand no chance to advance, my excitement level goes down quite a bit.
GunnerBill Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 (edited) Why have we played KC so often in the last 5 years? Keep finishing the same spot in our respective divisions. You have to go back to 2007 to find the last year we didn't play the Chiefs. They are almost a divisional game for us! In 2015 we will play them because we both came 2nd in our divisions in 2014. In 2014 we played them because of the 3 year rotation - we had the AFC West. In 2013 we played them because we both finished 4th in our divisions in 2012. In 2012 we played them because we both finished 4th in our divisions in 2011. In 2011 we played them because of the 3 year rotation - we had the AFC West. In 2010 we played them because we both finished 4th in our divisions in 2009. In 2009 we played them because we both finished 4th in our divisions in 2008. In 2008 we played them because of the 3 year rotation - we had the AFC West. EDIT: Interesting we are 4-3 over that stretch (though 0-2 the last 2 years) and are 3-1 at Arrowhead - with the one loss coming in overtime. Edited November 16, 2015 by GunnerBill
Wazzu Bill Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 The KC game is massive obviously. We pretty much all expect to be 5-5 going into it and they will likely be 5-5 as well. The last two seasons we have played them at a vital stage - outplayed them and made crucial mistakes - Tuel's pick 6 from inside the 5 and McKelvin's punt fumble to give them the win. This time the game is on the road which immediately makes it tougher but I feel like it remains THE pivotal game in our season. However, they don't quite have it their own way down the stretch. They still have to play Oakland (who are pretty decent and still in the hunt) twice and at Baltimore, who despite their record have not lost any of their 7 losses by more than a single score and still have talent on that team. I think if KC beats us it gets to 9-7..... if we beat them the best they get to is 8-8. So if we lost to New England and KC then we need to run the rest of the table to be 10-6 to get ahead of KC. With Big Ben looking relatively healthy I think the Steelers lock up one spot. IIRC Bryce Brown's fumble was probably the play that cost us the game? Either way, we outplayed KC the last two match ups and still came away without a W
GunnerBill Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 IIRC Bryce Brown's fumble was probably the play that cost us the game? Either way, we outplayed KC the last two match ups and still came away without a W Bryce's fumble would have put us out of sight - true. But we still had the lead until McKelvin fumbled the punt inside our own half and they turned it into the go ahead TD. It was mid 4th quarter. We then drove the length of the field and let Orton throw into the endzone 4 times in a row from about the 15 and he went 0-4.
BarleyNY Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 (edited) doesn't CONF & DIV W/L mean anything? Buffalo 5-3 Div 3-1 NYETS 4-3 Div 1-2 Raiders 4-3 Div 1-1 P-burg 3-4 Div 1-2 KC 3-2 Div 1-1 http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings It's complicated, or at least it can be. Division records would only ever factor into tiebreakers between teams within the same division. Tiebreaking procedures: http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures Edited November 16, 2015 by BarleyNY
metzelaars_lives Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 You guys are crazy. KC loses this week to SD, and I would not be at all surprised if they lose both games to Oakland. I mean, they win once against a team who has a historically bad QB performance and people are ready to put them into the superbowl. The 2 wildcard teams will be some combination of Bills, Steelers, Raiders and Jests. I'm gonna disagree with you. The Raiders were a fun story for a minute there but they're clearly a year away. The Chiefs are very much going to be involved in this thing.
bisonbrigade Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 Wake up people, KC is not NE and their best player is out for the year. KC has two play Oakland and San Diego twice who are at least equal in talent. Not to mention play the Bills who will be red hot after their win against NE.
SF Bills Fan Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 Not too long ago, I was more concerned about Dallas and Philly, but now, I'm more worried about KC and Washington. KC, will be a big test. That is a tough place to play and they seem to be on the rise.
GunnerBill Posted November 16, 2015 Posted November 16, 2015 I'm gonna disagree with you. The Raiders were a fun story for a minute there but they're clearly a year away. The Chiefs are very much going to be involved in this thing. I agree on the Raiders - but far from implausible that they at least split with Kansas City. I am not totally sold on KC yet - but they do have two games left against the Chargers who I think they will beat which gives them 6 wins... they have Cleveland which is 7 wins..... so they need two from us, Baltimore and two games against Oakland to be in that mix at 9-7. Seems more likely than not that they will be to me.
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