Jump to content

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 67
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted

These models are based on algorithms that attempt to predict future performance based on past performance.

 

I hope this turns out to be a flawed approach.

 

* The offense is still getting better in the first year of Roman's system. The TT-Watkins-Shady combo is still improving. More importantly, the triplets are healthy now and hopefully remain so for the rest of the season.

 

* The defense is still getting better in the first year of Rex' system - which has obviously been a problematic transition. Execution will improve as the season progresses.

 

I'm not convinced that the Bills we've seen at the beginning of the season are the same Bills we'll see at the end. I think there are sound reasons to expect an uptick in performance.

Posted

KC has four division games left -- why is that an "easy" schedule? A week ago Oakland was the greatest thing since sliced bread, but now they will be two easy Ws for KC? Same goes for SD -- sure, they aren't great, but they've been competitive in every game and have a good veteran QB.

 

Bottom line -- the Bills control their own destiny and are capable of beating or losing to anyone on their remaining schedule. If they go 4-3 they're probably in; 5-2 almost certainly.

 

Let the chips fall where they may.

Posted

I've done my own playoff calculations and I've determined that the Jacksonville loss really, really, really, really, really hurt us.

Kinda reminds me of Oakland.

Posted (edited)

You guys are crazy. KC loses this week to SD, and I would not be at all surprised if they lose both games to Oakland.

 

I mean, they win once against a team who has a historically bad QB performance and people are ready to put them into the superbowl.

 

The 2 wildcard teams will be some combination of Bills, Steelers, Raiders and Jests.

Edited by Oberyn
Posted

If we can't beat an average Chiefs team with everyone healthy (assuming no new injuries in the Pats game), are we really playoff material?

This. Getting to the playoffs is nice, but if we stand no chance to advance, my excitement level goes down quite a bit.

Posted (edited)

Why have we played KC so often in the last 5 years?

 

Keep finishing the same spot in our respective divisions. You have to go back to 2007 to find the last year we didn't play the Chiefs. They are almost a divisional game for us!

 

In 2015 we will play them because we both came 2nd in our divisions in 2014.

In 2014 we played them because of the 3 year rotation - we had the AFC West.

In 2013 we played them because we both finished 4th in our divisions in 2012.

In 2012 we played them because we both finished 4th in our divisions in 2011.

In 2011 we played them because of the 3 year rotation - we had the AFC West.

In 2010 we played them because we both finished 4th in our divisions in 2009.

In 2009 we played them because we both finished 4th in our divisions in 2008.

In 2008 we played them because of the 3 year rotation - we had the AFC West.

 

EDIT: Interesting we are 4-3 over that stretch (though 0-2 the last 2 years) and are 3-1 at Arrowhead - with the one loss coming in overtime.

Edited by GunnerBill
Posted

The KC game is massive obviously. We pretty much all expect to be 5-5 going into it and they will likely be 5-5 as well. The last two seasons we have played them at a vital stage - outplayed them and made crucial mistakes - Tuel's pick 6 from inside the 5 and McKelvin's punt fumble to give them the win. This time the game is on the road which immediately makes it tougher but I feel like it remains THE pivotal game in our season.

 

However, they don't quite have it their own way down the stretch. They still have to play Oakland (who are pretty decent and still in the hunt) twice and at Baltimore, who despite their record have not lost any of their 7 losses by more than a single score and still have talent on that team.

 

I think if KC beats us it gets to 9-7..... if we beat them the best they get to is 8-8. So if we lost to New England and KC then we need to run the rest of the table to be 10-6 to get ahead of KC. With Big Ben looking relatively healthy I think the Steelers lock up one spot.

 

IIRC Bryce Brown's fumble was probably the play that cost us the game? Either way, we outplayed KC the last two match ups and still came away without a W

Posted

 

IIRC Bryce Brown's fumble was probably the play that cost us the game? Either way, we outplayed KC the last two match ups and still came away without a W

 

Bryce's fumble would have put us out of sight - true. But we still had the lead until McKelvin fumbled the punt inside our own half and they turned it into the go ahead TD. It was mid 4th quarter. We then drove the length of the field and let Orton throw into the endzone 4 times in a row from about the 15 and he went 0-4.

Posted (edited)

doesn't CONF & DIV W/L mean anything?

 

Buffalo 5-3 Div 3-1

NYETS 4-3 Div 1-2

Raiders 4-3 Div 1-1

P-burg 3-4 Div 1-2

KC 3-2 Div 1-1

http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings

It's complicated, or at least it can be. Division records would only ever factor into tiebreakers between teams within the same division. Tiebreaking procedures:

 

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

Edited by BarleyNY
Posted

You guys are crazy. KC loses this week to SD, and I would not be at all surprised if they lose both games to Oakland.

 

I mean, they win once against a team who has a historically bad QB performance and people are ready to put them into the superbowl.

 

The 2 wildcard teams will be some combination of Bills, Steelers, Raiders and Jests.

I'm gonna disagree with you. The Raiders were a fun story for a minute there but they're clearly a year away. The Chiefs are very much going to be involved in this thing.

Posted

Wake up people, KC is not NE and their best player is out for the year. KC has two play Oakland and San Diego twice who are at least equal in talent. Not to mention play the Bills who will be red hot after their win against NE. :thumbsup:

Posted

Not too long ago, I was more concerned about Dallas and Philly, but now, I'm more worried about KC and Washington. KC, will be a big test. That is a tough place to play and they seem to be on the rise.

Posted

I'm gonna disagree with you. The Raiders were a fun story for a minute there but they're clearly a year away. The Chiefs are very much going to be involved in this thing.

 

I agree on the Raiders - but far from implausible that they at least split with Kansas City. I am not totally sold on KC yet - but they do have two games left against the Chargers who I think they will beat which gives them 6 wins... they have Cleveland which is 7 wins..... so they need two from us, Baltimore and two games against Oakland to be in that mix at 9-7. Seems more likely than not that they will be to me.

×
×
  • Create New...