CodeMonkey Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 (edited) The Bills are off this week (thank God). But here is what the models are saying about the rest of the season.FiveThirtyEight (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/) predicts a 7-9 record for the Bills this season with a 17% (down from 29%) chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% (down from 1%) chance of winning it all. Amos (http://trevorbischoff.com/nfl-2015-week-8-predictions/) predicts a record of 8-8 for the Bills this season. SportsClubStats (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html) predicts a record of 7-9 for the Bills this season with a 17.7% (down from 27.4%) chance of making the playoffs. The Senator Model: 16 and 4 baby ... How the models are doing for the season so far: Edited October 31, 2015 by CodeMonkey
dorquemada Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 The Bills are off this week (thank God). But here is what the models are saying about the rest of the season. FiveThirtyEight (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/) predicts a 7-9 record for the Bills this season with a 17% (down from 29%) chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% (down from 1%) chance of winning it all. Amos (http://trevorbischoff.com/nfl-2015-week-8-predictions/) No Data Yet. SportsClubStats (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html) predicts a record of 7-9 for the Bills this season with a 17.7% (down from 27.4%) chance of making the playoffs. Seems wildly optimistic. 538 gives us probability of beating Miami, Houston, Washington, Dallas (!), and the finale against the Jets. Lets work backwards.... the last game, against the Jets. I can see the Jets contending for a wildcard spot, and us playing for the difference between 6-10 and 7-9. Although familiar territory for the Bills, I can't imagine the Jets rolling over and the Bills showing up for that. Dallas? That's just crazy talk and why statistical models don't always reflect reality. Dallas will run for 500 yards against the Bills, Romo or no Romo. Washington? They're inconsistent but seem to play hard each week, at least in the bits I've seen, so I guess that's probably our best chance for a win. Houston - maybe? Watt can pretty much single handedly own the Bills O-Line. Maybe he'll be out for that game and the Bills can win on a last second field goal Miami - ha fat chance. Miami has gone from a laughing stock softie team to a contender seemingly overnight. Amazing what a hard nose coach can do. Too bad we're stuck with the Big Dumb Face at HC Even if the Bills beat Washington and Houston, we're looking at 5-11, lol what a year
CodeMonkey Posted October 26, 2015 Author Posted October 26, 2015 (edited) Seems wildly optimistic. 538 gives us probability of beating Miami, Houston, Washington, Dallas (!), and the finale against the Jets. Lets work backwards.... the last game, against the Jets. I can see the Jets contending for a wildcard spot, and us playing for the difference between 6-10 and 7-9. Although familiar territory for the Bills, I can't imagine the Jets rolling over and the Bills showing up for that. Dallas? That's just crazy talk and why statistical models don't always reflect reality. Dallas will run for 500 yards against the Bills, Romo or no Romo. Washington? They're inconsistent but seem to play hard each week, at least in the bits I've seen, so I guess that's probably our best chance for a win. Houston - maybe? Watt can pretty much single handedly own the Bills O-Line. Maybe he'll be out for that game and the Bills can win on a last second field goal Miami - ha fat chance. Miami has gone from a laughing stock softie team to a contender seemingly overnight. Amazing what a hard nose coach can do. Too bad we're stuck with the Big Dumb Face at HC Even if the Bills beat Washington and Houston, we're looking at 5-11, lol what a year Models by their very nature are a slave to the data they are given and slow to react to a big change. For example, the last few games for Dallas were without Romo. Therefore the offensive numbers were lacking. The models don't know Romo was out, they just see the lower level of performance. Edited October 26, 2015 by CodeMonkey
dorquemada Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 Models by their very nature are a slave to the data they are given and slow to react to a big change. For example, the last few games for Dallas were without Romo. Therefore the offensive number were lacking. The models don't know Romo was out, they just see the poor performance. yeah that's what I'm saying. I think it's safe to remove Dallas from the potential win category. This team does not have what it takes to beat a playoff team, and I absolutely defy anyone to say otherwise
CodeMonkey Posted October 26, 2015 Author Posted October 26, 2015 yeah that's what I'm saying. I think it's safe to remove Dallas from the potential win category. This team does not have what it takes to beat a playoff team, and I absolutely defy anyone to say otherwise There are many here that will say otherwise. Just scan some of the other threads. For example, there are some in the weekly "the refs cost us the game" thread that blame the loss solely (it seems anyway) on the one bad PI call near the end of the game. Some just gotta Billieve:)
CodeMonkey Posted October 26, 2015 Author Posted October 26, 2015 (edited) 16 and 4 baby... GO BILLLSSS!!!! Oh yes, I should have listed "The Senator Model" as well! Original post corrected! Edited October 26, 2015 by CodeMonkey
dorquemada Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 There are many here that will say otherwise. Just scan some of the other threads. For example, there are some in the weekly "the refs cost us the game" thread that blame the loss solely (it seems anyway) on the one bad PI call near the end of the game. Some just gotta Billieve:) Right, I'm reading the other thread where Lunatic P. Crazy is suggesting that we start EJ against Miami because it'll be way different this time. I'm all for collective delusion (I'm Buffalo through and through) but enough is enough. We're turning into the Anabaptists at Munster.
May Day 10 Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 Models predicting football games would be a great Sunday morning program
Southern Bills Fan Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 The models don't take into account that the Bills seem on the verge of quitting on Rex.
NoSaint Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 yeah that's what I'm saying. I think it's safe to remove Dallas from the potential win category. This team does not have what it takes to beat a playoff team, and I absolutely defy anyone to say otherwise well, would they be favorites against dallas? maybe, maybe not - long way away. is it impossible for this team to beat any team? thats silly talk.
Kipers Hair Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 Looking at the schedule - sadly I only see two wins left....
Seasons1992 Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 Looking at the schedule - sadly I only see two wins left.... As long as one of them is Houston when I drive 6 hours to go to that game, I'm in.
1billsfan Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 The Bills will finish the season with an 8-1 record (no doubt at least 7-2). This bye comes at the perfect time to reset this team's collective head straight and for everyone to get healthy again. I just don't buy into all of the doomed and negative stuff this time around. I see the first part of the season as them getting all of the bad stuff out of their system before they hit their stride and become the playoff bound team we all thought they were going to be. They won that Jags game and the refs screwed them out of it. I'm already done hearing about how much EJ sucks or how bad Rex is or Whaley or the defense. They won that game. They will have two whole weeks to stew over it and take out their anger on their division opponents coming up on the schedule. This team showed me they have fight in them.
hondo in seattle Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 The models are built off history. The Bills recent history includes a new coaching staffing that's still adapting and a ton of injuries. So here are the events I hope make the models wrong... * Rex figure out how to maximize the productivity of the D by adapting the scheme to better fit the talents of the players. * We get healthy. * TT develops into a Top Ten QB. * With Kromer back, the OL starts to gel.
dorquemada Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 The Bills will finish the season with an 8-1 record (no doubt at least 7-2). This bye comes at the perfect time to reset this team's collective head straight and for everyone to get healthy again. I just don't buy into all of the doomed and negative stuff this time around. I see the first part of the season as them getting all of the bad stuff out of their system before they hit their stride and become the playoff bound team we all thought they were going to be. They won that Jags game and the refs screwed them out of it. I'm already done hearing about how much EJ sucks or how bad Rex is or Whaley or the defense. They won that game. They will have two whole weeks to stew over it and take out their anger on their division opponents coming up on the schedule. This team showed me they have fight in them. Are you for real?
1billsfan Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 Are you for real? I think the Jags game will turn out to be the turning point game that forces the whole team to come together, get healthy and become the team we all thought they were.
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 (edited) Seems wildly optimistic. 538 gives us probability of beating Miami, Houston, Washington, Dallas (!), and the finale against the Jets. Lets work backwards.... the last game, against the Jets. I can see the Jets contending for a wildcard spot, and us playing for the difference between 6-10 and 7-9. Although familiar territory for the Bills, I can't imagine the Jets rolling over and the Bills showing up for that. Dallas? That's just crazy talk and why statistical models don't always reflect reality. Dallas will run for 500 yards against the Bills, Romo or no Romo. Washington? They're inconsistent but seem to play hard each week, at least in the bits I've seen, so I guess that's probably our best chance for a win. Houston - maybe? Watt can pretty much single handedly own the Bills O-Line. Maybe he'll be out for that game and the Bills can win on a last second field goal Miami - ha fat chance. Miami has gone from a laughing stock softie team to a contender seemingly overnight. Amazing what a hard nose coach can do. Too bad we're stuck with the Big Dumb Face at HC Even if the Bills beat Washington and Houston, we're looking at 5-11, lol what a year Disagree with you. We're built to play with anybody. We haven't been healthy, and have dug ourselves into some early holes. We have a bye week at a pretty good time. Time to get healthy, and start correcting the errors. Not saying were going to win out or anything, but i don't see why the bills can't hover around .500. The difference between 7-9 and 9-7 isnt THAT big. Edited October 26, 2015 by dneveu
Beerball Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 Damn, I thought this thread included Gisele pics.
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 26, 2015 Posted October 26, 2015 I think the Jags game will turn out to be the turning point game that forces the whole team to come together, get healthy and become the team we all thought they were.
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