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Posted (edited)

The beauty of the NFL and what most of these WGR analytical types miss is the predictive power of statistics. Which is to say, unlike the stock market, past performance does predict future results. If any of us with the ability had to time to sit down and put together a model, it would certainly not predict, I'd bet with high statistical significance, the Bills make it to 6-3. This isn't about last year's team or its record but purely on the past 6 games. No one in their right mind would lay down money on a 3-0 run for this injury riddled team with a defense that can't find itself and average QB play on its best day. In reality, right now, I'd say 1-2 and 0-3 isn't outside the realm of reality. The Jets in my mind is a guaranteed loss. The Dolphins under a new coach seem to putting it together after they destroyed a team we barely beat (part of the predictive model would be outcomes against teams in common). And the Jags aren't a guarantee. Actually, this one is the most problematic. Injuries hurt them, big time. I don't care how bad anyone things the Jags are, this is the NFL. Are the Bills so much better than the Jags even without Kyle Williams, Aaron Williams, Sammy Watkins, and Percy Harvin that we should just expect a win? That's insane.

 

Optimism and fandom are often driven by emotion and irrational thinking. I'm a fan and season-ticket holder but I'm not a Kool Aid drinker, I see a team for what is IS, not what I want it TO BE.

does the Jags past performance of not being able to beat injured teams or be competitive in two tries in London factor in to your predictive power of statistics? Edited by YoloinOhio
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Posted

Jaguars

Dolphins

Jets

 

That's our next 3 games! So many are freaking out, giving up, etc. But this team has been decimated by injuries, adjusting to a totally new offensive and defensive system, and has played TWO undefeated teams.

 

With all that, they are 3-3. I would say they weathered that early storm. Now it's time to start building something.

 

6-3 is right on the table for this team. Formula?

 

#1 beat the Jaguars. No game is a gimmie, but they are very beatable.

 

#2 beat the Dolphins at home. You just dominated them in their place. Now they have all their assistant coaches running the show. It probably won't be as easy but obviously you know you can beat this team, and this time you are in your own place.

 

#3 then it's the Jets with Ryan Fitzpatrick. That one will be tougher, but if this is a playoff team you overcome Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

I think 6-3 is not only realistic, but almost should be expected. That would also mean 3 more AFC wins, which is huge for playoff seeding.

 

Then it's a showdown between the (undoubtedly) undefeated Patriots* and the suddenly surging 6-3 Bills on MNF!

 

Buckle up, because it's about to get fun!

 

 

 

I expected them to be 5-3 at the half-way mark, which is a very real possibility. I don't know about beating the Jets in Jersey. They are the number 1 defense (hello Rex!) and our offense is sputtering without its play-makers.

Posted

What's so crazy about this?

 

You SHOULD beat Jacksonville, who has 1 win.

You ALREADY crushed Miami in their house. Now you are home.

Then you get Fitzpatrick. He didn't suddenly become a good QB.

 

I EXPECT 3-0 in this stretch, and when it happens things will cool down a bit around here.

Posted

Jaguars

Dolphins

Jets

 

That's our next 3 games! So many are freaking out, giving up, etc. But this team has been decimated by injuries, adjusting to a totally new offensive and defensive system, and has played TWO undefeated teams.

 

With all that, they are 3-3. I would say they weathered that early storm. Now it's time to start building something.

 

6-3 is right on the table for this team. Formula?

 

#1 beat the Jaguars. No game is a gimmie, but they are very beatable.

 

#2 beat the Dolphins at home. You just dominated them in their place. Now they have all their assistant coaches running the show. It probably won't be as easy but obviously you know you can beat this team, and this time you are in your own place.

 

#3 then it's the Jets with Ryan Fitzpatrick. That one will be tougher, but if this is a playoff team you overcome Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

I think 6-3 is not only realistic, but almost should be expected. That would also mean 3 more AFC wins, which is huge for playoff seeding.

 

Then it's a showdown between the (undoubtedly) undefeated Patriots* and the suddenly surging 6-3 Bills on MNF!

 

Buckle up, because it's about to get fun!

 

 

 

I love the positive energy! The second half of the season is going to be where it's at. Last year's defense didn't begin to hit on all cylinders until the second half of the season, and this year's improved offensive roster will likely be healthy come week 9 or 10. The pendulum is about to swing hard baby!

Posted

Honestly, if they lose to the lowly Jaguars, I'll say the Bills are pretty much done for the season. If I see Mario Williams drop into pass coverage even once, I'm going to puke. The real problem that this team has is the offense. For all of the weapons that have been added, this Bills team leads the NFL in 3 and outs. We're near the bottom in yards of total offense per game (27th). We're near the bottom in first downs per game (27th). The defense is 15th in yards allowed per game and 11th in first downs. At the end of the day, they have to beat Jacksonville. Coming off a bye week, they cannot lose a fourth straight home game to the Dolphins. As for the Jets, I'll call them a TBD. We're going to see just how good their media termed "vaunted" defense is this week. I wouldn't at all be shocked if the Patriots hung 35 on them.

Posted

sarcasm?

Not really. Not saying we're worse than the Jaguars, but at this point, I have no idea what to expect from the Bills. We've been utterly inconsistent so far.

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