YoloinOhio Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 (edited) The beauty of the NFL and what most of these WGR analytical types miss is the predictive power of statistics. Which is to say, unlike the stock market, past performance does predict future results. If any of us with the ability had to time to sit down and put together a model, it would certainly not predict, I'd bet with high statistical significance, the Bills make it to 6-3. This isn't about last year's team or its record but purely on the past 6 games. No one in their right mind would lay down money on a 3-0 run for this injury riddled team with a defense that can't find itself and average QB play on its best day. In reality, right now, I'd say 1-2 and 0-3 isn't outside the realm of reality. The Jets in my mind is a guaranteed loss. The Dolphins under a new coach seem to putting it together after they destroyed a team we barely beat (part of the predictive model would be outcomes against teams in common). And the Jags aren't a guarantee. Actually, this one is the most problematic. Injuries hurt them, big time. I don't care how bad anyone things the Jags are, this is the NFL. Are the Bills so much better than the Jags even without Kyle Williams, Aaron Williams, Sammy Watkins, and Percy Harvin that we should just expect a win? That's insane. Optimism and fandom are often driven by emotion and irrational thinking. I'm a fan and season-ticket holder but I'm not a Kool Aid drinker, I see a team for what is IS, not what I want it TO BE. does the Jags past performance of not being able to beat injured teams or be competitive in two tries in London factor in to your predictive power of statistics? Edited October 21, 2015 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan_34 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Lol too funny have you seen the Jets play this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuoteTheRaven83 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 We'll win every other game, leading us to another 8-8 or 9-7 season. Just like every other season... But then again, to most of the people here, we've closed the gap with the Patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALLEN1QB Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 or 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Jaguars Dolphins Jets That's our next 3 games! So many are freaking out, giving up, etc. But this team has been decimated by injuries, adjusting to a totally new offensive and defensive system, and has played TWO undefeated teams. With all that, they are 3-3. I would say they weathered that early storm. Now it's time to start building something. 6-3 is right on the table for this team. Formula? #1 beat the Jaguars. No game is a gimmie, but they are very beatable. #2 beat the Dolphins at home. You just dominated them in their place. Now they have all their assistant coaches running the show. It probably won't be as easy but obviously you know you can beat this team, and this time you are in your own place. #3 then it's the Jets with Ryan Fitzpatrick. That one will be tougher, but if this is a playoff team you overcome Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think 6-3 is not only realistic, but almost should be expected. That would also mean 3 more AFC wins, which is huge for playoff seeding. Then it's a showdown between the (undoubtedly) undefeated Patriots* and the suddenly surging 6-3 Bills on MNF! Buckle up, because it's about to get fun! I expected them to be 5-3 at the half-way mark, which is a very real possibility. I don't know about beating the Jets in Jersey. They are the number 1 defense (hello Rex!) and our offense is sputtering without its play-makers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Avon Lake now Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I seem to recall we've had a similar stretch of games a couple of years ago and managed to blow our chances losing to bad Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Tampa teams. Last year it was Oakland that did us in. Beat Jacksonville first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 We gotta have the next two, Jax and the fish. We have to win at least one of the Jets games. Then if we can win vs. Houston, @KC, @Philly and @Washington...the world will end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Doable, but OGAAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jobu Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Puff, Puff, Give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filthymcnasty08 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Our "Superbowl" is now the Jags game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 13-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted October 21, 2015 Author Share Posted October 21, 2015 What's so crazy about this? You SHOULD beat Jacksonville, who has 1 win. You ALREADY crushed Miami in their house. Now you are home. Then you get Fitzpatrick. He didn't suddenly become a good QB. I EXPECT 3-0 in this stretch, and when it happens things will cool down a bit around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I'm not even optimistic about beating one of the worst teams in the league at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TakeYouToTasker Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 One game at a time. One game at a time. No. Our coaching staff is hell bent on losing the next 10 all at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealityCheck Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Jaguars Dolphins Jets That's our next 3 games! So many are freaking out, giving up, etc. But this team has been decimated by injuries, adjusting to a totally new offensive and defensive system, and has played TWO undefeated teams. With all that, they are 3-3. I would say they weathered that early storm. Now it's time to start building something. 6-3 is right on the table for this team. Formula? #1 beat the Jaguars. No game is a gimmie, but they are very beatable. #2 beat the Dolphins at home. You just dominated them in their place. Now they have all their assistant coaches running the show. It probably won't be as easy but obviously you know you can beat this team, and this time you are in your own place. #3 then it's the Jets with Ryan Fitzpatrick. That one will be tougher, but if this is a playoff team you overcome Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think 6-3 is not only realistic, but almost should be expected. That would also mean 3 more AFC wins, which is huge for playoff seeding. Then it's a showdown between the (undoubtedly) undefeated Patriots* and the suddenly surging 6-3 Bills on MNF! Buckle up, because it's about to get fun! I love the positive energy! The second half of the season is going to be where it's at. Last year's defense didn't begin to hit on all cylinders until the second half of the season, and this year's improved offensive roster will likely be healthy come week 9 or 10. The pendulum is about to swing hard baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVABillsFan Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I'm not even optimistic about beating one of the worst teams in the league at this point sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luxy312 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Honestly, if they lose to the lowly Jaguars, I'll say the Bills are pretty much done for the season. If I see Mario Williams drop into pass coverage even once, I'm going to puke. The real problem that this team has is the offense. For all of the weapons that have been added, this Bills team leads the NFL in 3 and outs. We're near the bottom in yards of total offense per game (27th). We're near the bottom in first downs per game (27th). The defense is 15th in yards allowed per game and 11th in first downs. At the end of the day, they have to beat Jacksonville. Coming off a bye week, they cannot lose a fourth straight home game to the Dolphins. As for the Jets, I'll call them a TBD. We're going to see just how good their media termed "vaunted" defense is this week. I wouldn't at all be shocked if the Patriots hung 35 on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 sarcasm? Not for him, and not for me, either. I have a hard time visualizing this team beating anyone the way they're playing defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 The Bills O-Line trying to block the Jets is the stuff of bad dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 sarcasm? Not really. Not saying we're worse than the Jaguars, but at this point, I have no idea what to expect from the Bills. We've been utterly inconsistent so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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