PromoTheRobot Posted October 16, 2015 Posted October 16, 2015 I refuse to believe a 38 year old QB is ten times better than even the greatest QB's of all time without help.
KD in CA Posted October 16, 2015 Posted October 16, 2015 On 10/16/2015 at 3:39 PM, plenzmd1 said: it definitely factors into the initial line. The whole gambling/book- making thing fascinates me...like winning ...just wish i did it more. Yeah, I could see that being a really interesting and fun business. When I was a kid, there was an older guy in my neighborhood who quit his corporate job and did that for a living -- analyzing data and providing gambling advice. One time he showed me his 'charts' for a couple playoff games -- it was a lot of data and this was in the dark ages of the early 80s.
Mr. WEO Posted October 16, 2015 Posted October 16, 2015 On 10/16/2015 at 1:46 PM, plenzmd1 said: It is if they were looking only to manage risk...but they are looking to make money. Small places etc will lay off their bets...but the big books make way more money on being on the right side of the line than they do by getting the 10% Now, the 10% sure as chit don't hurt. Basic premise is public over-bets the favorite relative to power numbers ( not the stupid power polls on the net, ones using advanced stats) and relative value. They will also bet a few teams more than most..Steelers,Packers, Cowboys Pats being the big 4. So, the house basically says in most endeavors like sports betting, public is wrong and they take other side. Vegas has very ,very bad year if favorites cover over 60% of games...and i mean very bad. Line will move a ton when a non national underdog team starts to take a ton of money...ala the Bills week 1. Bills Opened +3, game ended up a pick em! Why do you think the public is overbetting the pats based on the power numbers?
26CornerBlitz Posted October 17, 2015 Author Posted October 17, 2015 On 10/16/2015 at 5:22 PM, PromoTheRobot said: I refuse to believe a 38 year old QB is ten times better than even the greatest QB's of all time without help. Even better with age? Brady at a 'Yoda-type level' Quote In his notebook, Albert Breer talks to Tom Brady's former pass catchers about the 38-year-old's stellar play. Oh, and what's the forecast for Sunday in Indy, Donte' Stallworth? "It's probably gonna be ugly."
26CornerBlitz Posted October 18, 2015 Author Posted October 18, 2015 @AdamSchefter Tom Brady’s father wants Patriots to score 60 against Colts:... http://fb.me/4X424AUr9
Pete Posted October 18, 2015 Posted October 18, 2015 On 10/16/2015 at 1:08 PM, plenzmd1 said: 90% of money on Pats right now...wowzer.Public usually wrong! Strong, strong contrarian play here . Also, 82% on Bengals....I feel my first parlay of the season.. Bills-Colts, coming up BTW, these are great charts when someone brings up" Vegas doesn't bet, all they want is 50-50 split on bets" http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart I am a contrarian better and investor. Vegas rarely loses. No way are they taking a 90% loss against Pats. I too love the Bills/Colts parlay
Beef Jerky Posted October 18, 2015 Posted October 18, 2015 On 10/16/2015 at 1:00 PM, Canadian Bills Fan said: Dont poke the bear people! No wonder BB runs up the score late in the game! CBF It would happen no matter what you do. Why do people not realize this? On 10/18/2015 at 12:37 PM, 26CornerBlitz said: @AdamSchefter Tom Brady’s father wants Patriots to score 60 against Colts:... http://fb.me/4X424AUr9 Brady's dad shouldn't "poke the bear" of the Colts.
KD in CA Posted October 19, 2015 Posted October 19, 2015 And Vegas cleans up. This is why I don't be on sports.
plenzmd1 Posted October 19, 2015 Posted October 19, 2015 On 10/19/2015 at 3:58 AM, KD in CT said: And Vegas cleans up. This is why I don't be on sports. The garbage time cover!!! Rough life trying to make a living betting NFL games. Glad I only lose lunch money and not dinner money!
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