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Indianapolis Bakery Wants You to Eat Brady's Cookies


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Rex talks a big game - we get beat

Greg Hardy talks **** - Cowgirls get slaughtered.

Colts make cookies with court sketch frosting - I predict a blowout

90% of money on Pats right now...wowzer.Public usually wrong! Strong, strong contrarian play here .

 

Also, 82% on Bengals....I feel my first parlay of the season.. Bills-Colts, coming up

 

BTW, these are great charts when someone brings up" Vegas doesn't bet, all they want is 50-50 split on bets"

 

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

Edited by plenzmd1
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90% of money on Pats right now...wowzer.Public usually wrong! Strong, strong contrarian play here .

 

Also, 82% on Bengals....I feel my first parlay of the season.. Bills-Colts, coming up

 

BTW, these are great charts when someone brings up" Vegas doesn't bet, all they want is 50-50 split on bets"

 

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

I wish I knew a bookie. I'd be putting money on the Bills this week.

 

(Hoping that wasn't the kiss of death)

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I wish I knew a bookie. I'd be putting money on the Bills this week.

 

(Hoping that wasn't the kiss of death)

fairly easy to open an account at any number of offshore books. I have never had an issue using Bovada

The Colts do not match up well at all with the Pats**. They are very overrated in general, but not even close to the weight class of their opponent. Blowout city.

it sure looks that way....but that much money on one side usually indicate the guys who make thier living doing this(bookmakers) want to take money on the Pats...just a thought

Edited by plenzmd1
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90% of money on Pats right now...wowzer.Public usually wrong! Strong, strong contrarian play here .

 

Also, 82% on Bengals....I feel my first parlay of the season.. Bills-Colts, coming up

 

BTW, these are great charts when someone brings up" Vegas doesn't bet, all they want is 50-50 split on bets"

 

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

 

So why don't the lines move more when that happens? Isn't it beneficial for Vegas from a risk standpoint to have the wagers be more balanced?

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it sure looks that way....but that much money on one side usually indicate the guys who make thier living doing this(bookmakers) want to take money on the Pats...just a thought

It is not surprising that the Pats** get bet up, but it is curious that the line is not moving to compensate. Perhaps the feeling is that because the Colts are home they can keep it close. I just do not see it. Luck coming back from injury and the Colts D just does not match up. The only way this stays within 10 is if Belicheat lays off the gas after a acquiring a big lead and Luck scores some meaningless points in the end. This is why I do not bet on football anymore.
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So why don't the lines move more when that happens? Isn't it beneficial for Vegas from a risk standpoint to have the wagers be more balanced?

It is if they were looking only to manage risk...but they are looking to make money. Small places etc will lay off their bets...but the big books make way more money on being on the right side of the line than they do by getting the 10% Now, the 10% sure as chit don't hurt.

 

Basic premise is public over-bets the favorite relative to power numbers ( not the stupid power polls on the net, ones using advanced stats) and relative value.

 

They will also bet a few teams more than most..Steelers,Packers, Cowboys Pats being the big 4.

 

So, the house basically says in most endeavors like sports betting, public is wrong and they take other side.

 

Vegas has very ,very bad year if favorites cover over 60% of games...and i mean very bad.

 

Line will move a ton when a non national underdog team starts to take a ton of money...ala the Bills week 1. Bills Opened +3, game ended up a pick em!

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It is if they were looking only to manage risk...but they are looking to make money. Small places etc will lay off their bets...but the big books make way more money on being on the right side of the line than they do by getting the 10% Now, the 10% sure as chit don't hurt.

 

Basic premise is public over-bets the favorite relative to power numbers ( not the stupid power polls on the net, ones using advanced stats) and relative value.

 

They will also bet a few teams more than most..Steelers,Packers, Cowboys Pats being the big 4.

 

So, the house basically says in most endeavors like sports betting, public is wrong and they take other side.

 

Vegas has very ,very bad year if favorites cover over 60% of games...and i mean very bad.

 

Line will move a ton when a non national underdog team starts to take a ton of money...ala the Bills week 1. Bills Opened +3, game ended up a pick em!

 

Interesting, thanks. So the big 4 typically have inflated lines since they know the public will bet them anyway.

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Interesting, thanks. So the big 4 typically have inflated lines since they know the public will bet them anyway.

it definitely factors into the initial line. The whole gambling/book- making thing fascinates me...like winning ...just wish i did it more.

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