Nihilarian Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 Watching NFL insiders on ESPN Bill Polian has his list of Championship Indicators going solely by the stats. Yards per pass attempt Points allowed per game Turnover margin Kicking efficiency 3rd down efficiency offense 3rd down efficiency defense QBR Going by the current numbers the top ten teams most likely to win the SB this year! New England Patriots 4-0 Arizona Cardinals 4-1 Green Bay Packers 5-0 Cincinnati Bengals 5-0 NY Jets 3-1 Denver Broncos 5-0 Atlanta Falcons 5-0 Cleveland Browns 2-3 Pittsburgh Steelers 3-2 Tennessee Titans 1-3 Jets, Browns, Titans really? Clearly the 3-1 Jets, 1-3 Titans have no business on this list and are mostly there because of their defensive stats. Then going solely by the teams each team has faced so far this season this list is probably way off the reality. The Broncos might be 5-0 but unless Manning and the run game finds themselves they might be in trouble. The Broncos defense just took a hit with Ware being injured and out for a few games. Then the Patriots just lost LT Nate Solder to the IR. Not on the list for various reasons, Carolina is 4-0 Indy is 3-2 NY Giants 3-2 Buffalo 3-2 Anyway, Polian said they would revisit the stats / teams again in a few weeks, and the end of the season is a long way off. Again, this is list was based solely on the numbers. (Lies, damned lies and statistics!)
maddenboy Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 (edited) Watching NFL insiders on ESPN Bill Polian has his list of Championship Indicators going solely by the stats. Yards per pass attempt Points allowed per game Turnover margin Kicking efficiency 3rd down efficiency offense 3rd down efficiency defense QBR are these listed in order of importance? my order would be, for this Bills team to reach and win the SB: 1) 3rd down efficiency offense (by far. we have playmakers, so the more plays we can run . . .) 2) Turnover margin 3) QBR (which includes a bunch of meaningful stuff, though you can debate the weighting of each) 4) Points allowed 5) Yards per attempt (because, the lower your points allowed, the less you need to score on long passes) 6) Kicking efficiency (in outdoor Buffalo, and esp. with the new xtra point rule) 7) 3rd down efficiency defense (pains me to say it, but I think each of the above is more important. We have a very good D, but this league is about offense.) (and yes, I recognize certain obv. points, such as YPA stretches the field, keeps the D honest, and is an indicator of your o-line's pass blocking; that 3down eff. Defense generally = more offensive plays, which is the foundation of my #1 factor; and the silly argument that, at the extreme, points allowed should be first because if you always allow zero, you will always win). Edited October 15, 2015 by maddenboy
Nanker Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 Probably the most powerful statistical correlation for achieving a championship is the Wins/Losses ratio. It's not an absolute, but it's a leading indicator. IMO.
HamSandwhich Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 Probably the most powerful statistical correlation for achieving a championship is the Wins/Losses ratio. It's not an absolute, but it's a leading indicator. IMO. That's just silly. Everyone knows that championships are won and lost on style points. Style points are judged by a panel of figure skating judges from Russia. I cant believe you would intimate otherwise!
YoloinOhio Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 (edited) SMDH. Stats are like hostages. They will tell you whatever you want. Edited October 15, 2015 by YoloinOhio
HardyBoy Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 Interesting to think of it like roto fantasy baseball. The goal is to get the most points spread out across all the statistics not just be the best in one or two statistical categories and average in the others. Makes me think a bit differently about the defense not getting a ton of sacks this year. Plus qb pressures, force qbs to get rid of the ball quickly on short routes that take away double moves, and tackle well preventing short passes from becoming long passes. If they can do all those things better than average, consistently, they will add up to significantly better compiled end stats and results than having a lot of sacks but giving up a lot of yards per pass attempt. I would much rather have a low ypa against with an average third down defense than a large ypa against with a good third down defense (i think), because you get beat in the nfl by big plays, not giving up a third and two 60 yards from the end zone.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 So, ESPN invents its own "QBR" stat like 3 years ago, and claims it is now a predictor of championship teams? What these stats tell you is that most teams that win super bowls have a great QB, a good defense, and take care of the ball. Shocking stuff.
davspo Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 I think the leading indicator is wins vs. losses.
hondo in seattle Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 (edited) Polian is a smart guy but - Yikes! - we're only 5 games into the season. Some teams have had soft schedules. Some have had tough schedules. Some have new HCs, OCs and DCs and are still working on things. Some team have had injuries. Some are going to suffer important injuries. And some no-name players are going to step up before the season's over. No stat, or group of stats, are going to accurately predict the postseason at this point. That's part of the fun of being an NFL fan. There are always surprises. Edited October 15, 2015 by hondo in seattle
MDH Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 I'm curious why points scored isn't a good indicator but points allowed is. I think the leading indicator is wins vs. losses. The best indicator: If a team plays more than 16 games and wins their last game.
iinii Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 I think the leading indicator is wins vs. losses. points allowed is a compelling stat
GottaRun Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 Last 2 times the Jays made the World Series the Bills were in the Superbowl. My championship indicator is whether the Jays make the World Series this year. Throw all the other stats out the window!
3rdand12 Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 SMDH. Stats are like hostages. They will tell you whatever you want. oooh i never heard that before. pretty nice phrase Yolo! I'm curious why points scored isn't a good indicator but points allowed is. The best indicator: If a team plays more than 16 games and wins their last game. well technically that not an indicator as proof of the indications!! But i like what you did there
Formerly Allan in MD Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 Nothing about coaching? Duh! Ask Joe Philbin what that's all about.
DC Tom Posted October 15, 2015 Posted October 15, 2015 Watching NFL insiders on ESPN Bill Polian has his list of Championship Indicators going solely by the stats. Yards per pass attempt Points allowed per game Turnover margin Kicking efficiency 3rd down efficiency offense 3rd down efficiency defense QBR Going by the current numbers the top ten teams most likely to win the SB this year! New England Patriots 4-0 Arizona Cardinals 4-1 Green Bay Packers 5-0 Cincinnati Bengals 5-0 NY Jets 3-1 Denver Broncos 5-0 Atlanta Falcons 5-0 Cleveland Browns 2-3 Pittsburgh Steelers 3-2 Tennessee Titans 1-3 Jets, Browns, Titans really? Clearly the 3-1 Jets, 1-3 Titans have no business on this list and are mostly there because of their defensive stats. Then going solely by the teams each team has faced so far this season this list is probably way off the reality. The Broncos might be 5-0 but unless Manning and the run game finds themselves they might be in trouble. The Broncos defense just took a hit with Ware being injured and out for a few games. Then the Patriots just lost LT Nate Solder to the IR. Not on the list for various reasons, Carolina is 4-0 Indy is 3-2 NY Giants 3-2 Buffalo 3-2 Anyway, Polian said they would revisit the stats / teams again in a few weeks, and the end of the season is a long way off. Again, this is list was based solely on the numbers. (Lies, damned lies and statistics!) Man...they just keep trying to push that QBR, don't they?
YoloinOhio Posted October 16, 2015 Posted October 16, 2015 Man...they just keep trying to push that QBR, don't they? its totally super important, yo.
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