YoloinOhio Posted October 9, 2015 Author Posted October 9, 2015 (edited) I just have this one nagging thought i cant square....... if there's nothing you can do about a QB getting the ball out fast.....then why invest so heavily in the D line? But then I see Denver's D and I see people putting heat on the QB. To me Rex needs to junk the zone crap and just go after the other teams QB.....relentlessly. denver hadn't yet played a QB who can get the ball out quickly. They will get Brady at some point this year. Getting the ball out quickly to try to avoid sacks does not beat the DL on its own. The DL is paid like that to force this game plan. Eli was successful getting the ball out fast but was not successful in the passing game. He didn't get sacked, but he was absolutely affected. Brady knew where he was going with the ball pre snap. He is a QB on a different planet at the moment. I don't think you win more games with mediocre DL instead of paying good players. Rex had repeatedly said it is a good thing if they are forcing QBs to do this, not a bad thing. Edited October 9, 2015 by YoloinOhio
3rdand12 Posted October 9, 2015 Posted October 9, 2015 Man, I hope you're right and that the player quotes in the Carucci article are isolated and out of context. Definitely possible as I've seen nothing similar from these or other players anywhere else. I'm on board the Rex train and I hope the defense is too. I was rather concerned about Dareus' quotes too. But I always try to dig a little deeper than this "tweet " style quotes media tosses about. Personally i think the whole Defense is on board, just a bit overwhelmed at times. Go Bills I saw something while watching the game and I wonder if anybody has saw this in the All-22... Bradham and Gilmore both lined up in front of a WR. As soon as the ball was snapped, Bradham chipped him and then ran toward the center of the field to fulfill his normal LB duties, and Gilmore then covered the WR. This move disrupts the timing on the quick throw, and lets Gilmore keep his eyes on the play so he can respond accordingly. If Gilmore chipped the WR, he could end up out of position to cover him. I don't know if this was just done once, or did it happen more often. Is it a good idea, or does it just result in having Bradham out of position. This is how its done correctly. Love all 22 and some of the gurus that break it down. Always has me rethinking what i saw game day. Good post I just have this one nagging thought i cant square....... if there's nothing you can do about a QB getting the ball out fast.....then why invest so heavily in the D line? But then I see Denver's D and I see people putting heat on the QB. To me Rex needs to junk the zone crap and just go after the other teams QB.....relentlessly. Pats were the first to show this to the Bills. Miami tried it and then Ginats. Rex and Thurman will adjust. It may not be what we wish for, but they want to win. Faith is the order of the day. Under review the Bills look better then they do game day. They are adjusting and moving the pieces. at some point they will just pin the ears with those four and most of us will be in our glory. The good teams are smarter then we are maybe?
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted October 9, 2015 Posted October 9, 2015 I just have this one nagging thought i cant square....... if there's nothing you can do about a QB getting the ball out fast.....then why invest so heavily in the D line? But then I see Denver's D and I see people putting heat on the QB. To me Rex needs to junk the zone crap and just go after the other teams QB.....relentlessly. because not every QB is that good.
thebandit27 Posted October 9, 2015 Posted October 9, 2015 I just have this one nagging thought i cant square....... if there's nothing you can do about a QB getting the ball out fast.....then why invest so heavily in the D line? But then I see Denver's D and I see people putting heat on the QB. To me Rex needs to junk the zone crap and just go after the other teams QB.....relentlessly. What a few folks aren't recognizing is that the Bills' D is, in fact, completely dictating what other teams have to do on offense. I feel pretty confident that most teams would like to run a bigger playbook than "get the ball out as quickly as possible" on offense, but Buffalo's talent along the defensive front doesn't allow them to do that. As soon as Buffalo gets the penalties figured out and gets better play recognition and tackling from the interior of the back 7 (and I think both will come along with time), they'll be a force.
K-9 Posted October 9, 2015 Posted October 9, 2015 The defensive stat that is most tightly correlated to winning is points scored against. How are we doing there vs. last year? I think the usefulness of QB rating (QBR and rating) has been beaten to death elsewhere. I'll just comment that it turns out overall yards given up is not particularly correlated to winning (either way - lots of yds or little). Two of the statistics you cite are examples of why: If teams are discovering that the Bills are suceptible to short quick passes, then our YPP statistic would be lower, but that would reflect the strategy employed by our opponents, rather than improvement in D. Likewise, we might have a great rush yards per carry stat, but if it reflects the fact that teams are finding us porous against the short quick pass, does that really mean too much? As far as concern or lack of concern for what Dareus or other players say, sure, we'll wait and see. What else can we do? Points per game is indeed the most important stat. Against teams without a Brapdy at QB, we are giving up 16 per game. Brady kicked our ass last year at home, too. The YPP is low because teams are deliberately attempting short passes? Let's rephrase that to say teams are attempting short passes because they have to. Again, that in itself is a major concession to a front four that forces teams to abandon half their passing game. This is not a bad thing. Especially when playing with a lead. GO BILLS!!!
Lurker Posted October 9, 2015 Posted October 9, 2015 Against teams without a Brapdy at QB, we are giving up 16 per game. Brady kicked our ass last year at home, too. It took 13 pages to get to the crux of the matter...
YoloinOhio Posted October 9, 2015 Author Posted October 9, 2015 It took 13 pages to get to the crux of the matter... It was said many times over but just not as succinctly
vorpma Posted October 9, 2015 Posted October 9, 2015 I'm not buying this premise. The Bills' defense has looked great in two games (IND and MIA), Pretty good in one game (NYG), and not very good in one game (NE). I recall the Schwartz defense also getting lit up for 37 by Brady and the Patriots in the one game that they really tried. It's still too early to worry about this so called issue IMO. I expect the D will congeal into an excellent unit on a more consistent basis in time. good post
dave mcbride Posted October 9, 2015 Posted October 9, 2015 (edited) This is not a value judgment: Opponents are passing the ball 71.3 percent of the time (192 attempts plus 7 sacks) and running it 28.7 percent of the time (80 attempts). That's suggestive of a lot of things, but I'm not sure of the order. Regardless, it is a massive disparity. It doesn't appear to be tied to leads either: the Giants passed 56.2 percent of the time despite having a lead for virtually the entire game. It certainly puts into context the number of pressures the Bills have. Of course they'll have more if their opponents are throwing it more -- and the Bills are 32nd in the league in passing attempts faced. The percentage is what matters, not raw numbers. Tied to this, they are also sacking QBs at a rate of 3.5 percent per dropback. That is very, very low. Last year, they sacked QBs at a rate of 8.8 percent per dropback. In 2013, they sacked QBs at a rate of 9.2 percent per dropback. Any way you slice it, they aren't getting to the QB at the same rate as in the past. Whether that's indicative of overall defensive performance is the issue, and I'm moderately agnostic on that. However, it seems to me that tackling the QB behind the LOS is always a good thing, especially given the relatively high potential for fumbles. Edited October 9, 2015 by dave mcbride
dave mcbride Posted October 9, 2015 Posted October 9, 2015 (edited) One other thing: we finished 2nd overall in Football Outsiders' DVOA ranking in 2014 and 4th in 2013. We are 11th now. To be fair, 11th is pretty good, actually. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef Edited October 9, 2015 by dave mcbride
dave mcbride Posted October 9, 2015 Posted October 9, 2015 I thought about this as well. The fact that they are getting opposing teams to get the ball out quick in changing up their passing offense is a tribute to the front four and the defense overall. Still it's noticeably we aren't getting the same rush we got last year. Perhaps the D Line know this is what teams are doing and get complacent in their attack of the QB? FWIW, in his first couple of games back, I thought Dareus looked slow getting off the ball at the snap (especially in the NE game). He looked a bit confused, to be honest. He's a great player, so I expect him to catch up.
Mango Posted October 9, 2015 Posted October 9, 2015 This also raises the question, while the personal fouls on the Defense are dumb and need to be eliminated, are the OL penalties the real issue? OL play directly led to 2 TDs being pulled off the board. This! Another poster with access to the premium stats on PFF, posted that TT has the longest TT throw in the league. Two things will/can happen with that. 1. OL holds, because 3+ seconds is a really long time to hold off a rusher 2. TT is scrambling which means the rusher now has his back to the play, giving him a free chase. OL holds or gives up the blocker. Hughes leads the team with penalties, 5, but Glenn is close behind with 4 holding calls.
YoloinOhio Posted October 9, 2015 Author Posted October 9, 2015 (edited) This! Another poster with access to the premium stats on PFF, posted that TT has the longest TT throw in the league. Two things will/can happen with that. 1. OL holds, because 3+ seconds is a really long time to hold off a rusher 2. TT is scrambling which means the rusher now has his back to the play, giving him a free chase. OL holds or gives up the blocker. Hughes leads the team with penalties, 5, but Glenn is close behind with 4 holding calls. Yep - I mentioned that too, they were discussing on WGR yesterday that because TT extends the play it also requires the OL (and frankly everyone) to block longer and leads to offensive penalties. I like that he extends plays, as it tends to lead to open WRs, and tbh they aren't always called and they've gotten away with some too ... but a valid point Edited October 9, 2015 by YoloinOhio
Mango Posted October 9, 2015 Posted October 9, 2015 Yep - I mentioned that too, they were discussing on WGR yesterday that because TT extends the play it also requires the OL (and frankly everyone) to block longer and leads to offensive penalties. I like that he extends plays, as it tends to lead to open WRs, and tbh they aren't always called and they've gotten away with some too ... but a valid point I like TT but he does need to be able to read te field a bit better/quicker. Even without the scramble he isn't seeing the field well and needs to do better looking for the intermediate routes. It seems it's one of 3 throws, check down, go route, or where ever Clay is.
YoloinOhio Posted October 9, 2015 Author Posted October 9, 2015 I like TT but he does need to be able to read te field a bit better/quicker. Even without the scramble he isn't seeing the field well and needs to do better looking for the intermediate routes. It seems it's one of 3 throws, check down, go route, or where ever Clay is. Yeah, Clay is his security blanket. He's still developing, of course, he is better than I expected but not perfect. He has had open guys who he never sees. I guess that's better than seeing them and choosing not to throw it which is what EJ did last year (not saying he hasn't improved since then, which he has).
Nihilarian Posted October 9, 2015 Posted October 9, 2015 K-9, on 08 Oct 2015 - 10:02 PM, said: Yes, and as I said, the leading "team" in hurries has 32 in four games for an everage of eight. No matter how you slice it, 11 hurries in a single game is damned good. There is absolutely no animosity on my part. I just don't agree with your views on the zone blitz, the imagined lack of pressure (we are still a top ten team in that stat even with QBs getting rid of the ball so quickly), and the idea that this defense has regressed when a closer look reveals it is slightly worse than last years in terms of gross yards after four games, but better in terms of yards per pass against, QB rating against, rush yards per carry. I mention those three because they are much more important metrics to measure a team's defensive performance. And I just can't get too concerned about anything Dareus says about anything at this point. Can we at least see what he has to say after they've been in the system a bit longer? Is that fair? GO BILLS!!! 11 hurries might be damned good for an average team, but not for one that has 28% of its payroll tied up in its front four. Like I said this game was against the Colts where it looked like they blitzed a ton, and it was more the better coverage that caused Luck to look so bad. To put those pressures in better context currently the Buffalo Bills are 19th in sacks with seven, and Denver is leading the NFL with 18. The Bills sack percentage is currently 27th out of 32. Last season they ended the year at #1 out of 32 with 54 sacks against 559 pass attempts with a sack percentage of 8.8. This is a huge difference between last years defense and this years so far! Now lets discuss the NE game. This isn't the very first time ever the Bills have faced Brady, or a QB that can get the ball out quickly. ooohh under 2 seconds, whatever will we do??? Rex Ryan played a soft cover defense that game, and was roasted for it! "Rex Ryan, Dennis Thurman and defensive coaching staff: Ryan told his team that this loss was on his shoulders, and so he's a natural place to start in the "down" column. Ryan's defensive game plan couldn't put pressure on Tom Brady-- the Bills disrupted (a sack, batted ball, passed defense or interception) only 9.8 percent of Brady's dropbacks, a lower rate than in any of the Bills' 2014 games -- and he never seemed to have an effective plan for stopping either Rob Gronkowski or Julian Edelman." http://espn.go.com/b...defensive-staff Allow me to reiterate, Nihilarian, on 08 Oct 2015 - 12:38 PM, said: A few thoughts here. Its OK to be concerned about the Bills defense so far because most of us were expecting greatness, and not excuses! Rex Ryan has a pedigree of building top defenses, and his defense usually play great against Tom Brady. In his six years as the Jets HC he never allowed 466 passing yards to ole Tom! Brady didn't just suddenly start getting the ball out quickly, as he has been running the same offense his entire career. Rex Ryan admitted he made a mistake with his defense on Brady, as he went to a soft nickle coverage a lot in that game. Instead of getting heavy pressure on Brady he decided to try and have his DB's play a 10-15 yard cushion off the line. Because of that mistake his defense suddenly jumped to 31st in total defense, and 32nd against the pass. Those stats changed this last game to 22nd in total defense, but still 29th in passing defense. Those stats matter!! Just like the Bills playing against the #1 defense against the run in the Giants and they held true to those stats by holding the Bills to a 2.3 ypc avg. I suppose the anti stat fans will say that the 24 rushes for only 55 yards doesn't matter, 29th in pass defense after four games doesn't matter because this excuse, that excuse, another excuse, and BTW excuse, excuse, excuse! Is there still time for Ryan to field a Buffalo Bills top five defense this year, you bet! Will they? We honestly don't know, and if he continues to spew this crud that his defenses can't stop a QB with a quick release. News flash, Ryan Fitzpatrick has a very quick release too, and Ryan smoked Fitz when he was the Bills QB 2x in 2010, 2x in 2011, 1x in 2012. The Bills entire offense under Gailey was predicated on the quick, short pass, and guess what. He is back in the division as the Jets OC with Fitz as his QB!! Then, no other defense has played Tom Brady better then Rex Ryan from 2009-2014 in 2013 In both games the Jets lost by 3 points each. In 2014 each game was lost by one point, and two points. The last game against the Jets in 2014 in week 16 Brady didn't even pass for 200 yards. He went 25 of 35 for 182 yards-1 TD-1 INT. Rex Ryan himself has said he has never had this amount of talent on a defense, so freaking pardon me If I'm not happy about being 29th in pass defense after four games. The problem is not in the defensive secondary because they have played really well from what I've seen. The problem looks to be lack of D line rotation along with far to much dropping into coverage instead of finding different ways to get to the QB, and the penalties!! JMO
voodoo poonani Posted October 9, 2015 Posted October 9, 2015 Bring back Schwartz +1 I thought that was a terrible move, but got roasted for it. If it wasn't broke, then why fix it? He shut down Rodgers, Manning, and Brady but was let go anyway.
YoloinOhio Posted October 10, 2015 Author Posted October 10, 2015 (edited) +1 I thought that was a terrible move, but got roasted for it. If it wasn't broke, then why fix it? He shut down Rodgers, Manning, and Brady but was let go anyway. he didn't shut down Brady. He did shut down manning, but let CJ Anderson run for 3 TDs. Since we wont play Rodgers again for 4 years, it won't help. Edited October 10, 2015 by YoloinOhio
BADOLBILZ Posted October 10, 2015 Posted October 10, 2015 What a few folks aren't recognizing is that the Bills' D is, in fact, completely dictating what other teams have to do on offense. I feel pretty confident that most teams would like to run a bigger playbook than "get the ball out as quickly as possible" on offense, but Buffalo's talent along the defensive front doesn't allow them to do that. As soon as Buffalo gets the penalties figured out and gets better play recognition and tackling from the interior of the back 7 (and I think both will come along with time), they'll be a force. They are also dictating the plays that their opponents are designing to confuse/expose weaknesses in their D. And playing it just as they were expected to. What bothers me is that teams are getting matchups and the Bills response has been to give them the yardage and the first downs and points are ensuing.
Georgia Bill Posted October 10, 2015 Posted October 10, 2015 It's like asking Joe Frazier to rope a dope. Most important lesson for managers - play to the strengths of the individuals on your team. Don't try to force them to excel in areas they don't. I say let the big dogs eat and the rest will take care of itself.
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