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Evaluating the remainder of the schedule


Wazzu Bill

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If we continue to take on the penalties we are, then I'm thinking 7-9.

 

If Rex can get the team's collective head out of it's ass, then 10-6, or likely better.

i may be on an island, but tbh I don't think the penalties have as much to do with winning and losing as everyone else does.

 

They are a factor in games but the better team that day wins regardless of penalty count.

Edited by YoloinOhio
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i may be on an island, but tbh I don't think the penalties have as much to do with winning and losing as everyone else does.

We had multiple touchdowns called back, and gave the Giants a couple first downs after we stopped them, on D. Penalties (deserved or not) definitely lost us the game on Sunday.

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We had multiple touchdowns called back, and gave the Giants a couple first downs after we stopped them, on D. Penalties (deserved or not) definitely lost us the game on Sunday.

the Giants also had 11 penalties called against them which is a ton - some of which weren't valid. And could have had more with the out of control punches by Beckham. I don't think the penalties swung the game to a loss and without them we would have won. They are clearly a factor in every game, but the game was not played well enough to win regardless. Edited by YoloinOhio
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We Billieve in 14-2 Lets Go Buffalo!!!

 

Screw the NYETS. The Bills take the sweep of both the Nyets and Fish.

 

Games of concern Houston, Cowboys, Cincy and the despicable Tainted Tom of the Cheatriots

I'm not so sure about the Jets. That Defense is really good. I'd have to say they are right behind Denver in the AFC and belong in the concern group. Division games are crucial in the WC scenarios. A split with them would be a good outcome. No way the Bills can lose to the lowly Fish at home and keep any playoff aspirations. I agree with those other games but would take out the NFC cowboys and add @ KC. A chance to knock down a WC rival and notch an AFC win. Even if last years Bills had beaten OAK on the road, they still would have lost tiebreaks due to AFC record. They went 4-0 vs NFC North. If anything, the Bills losses need to come vs NFC.

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I guess we'll agree to disagree... I thought we turned it around pretty well, but kept on setting ourselves back with penalties.

i totally agree they can't go on this way and they need to be curbed where possible (as Rex talked about the different kinds of penalties and which they work on and which they don't worry about). I just mean that it was totally overblown IMO by the media as something that will "doom" them on their own and decide the season. They were second to most penalties in the league last year and one game away from playoffs with winning record. Seattle led the league and went to the SB. You either are good enough to win or you aren't. Penalties are way up with every team across the league this year. Expect to be flagged a ton, warranted or not, and play well enough to overcome. Edited by YoloinOhio
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I guess we'll agree to disagree... I thought we turned it around pretty well, but kept on setting ourselves back with penalties.

 

Yolo is right statistically. Penalties are almost anecdotal. If you want the real stat that matters in games, one needs to only look at turnovers and history of W/L in the NFL. In the last 20 years, collectively:

-1 in turnovers lost about 90% of the time

-2 in turnovers lost about 94% of the time

-3 in turnovers lost about 99% of the time

 

Buffalo was +3 versus both the Colts and Dolphins and won. They were -1 versus both the Patriots and Giants and lost. Marv Levy used to say that if a team is consistently winning the turnover battle that ANY team will be 10-6 or better. That's what it takes. Pretty much everything else is ancillary.

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the Giants also had 11 penalties called against them which is a ton - some of which weren't valid. And could have had more with the out of control punches by Beckham. I don't think the penalties swung the game to a loss and without them we would have won. They are clearly a factor in every game, but the game was not played well enough to win regardless.

 

Right. Folks seem to think the Giants 11 flags somehow indicates brilliant coaching and a disciplined team. This was a game of missed opportunities, that is players not making plays that are right there in front of them. Folks want to rant about the PFs but the two most critical penalties affecting the outcome were the two that took TDs off the board( chop block PF was a bad call). The next biggest would be KW lining up over the C on FG attempt in essence giving the Giants 3 more Pts . He seems to be getting a pass on this board. Guys didn't make plays and maybe some talent is being overrated ( TT, Woods, Hogan). These guys couldn't step up and carry the day when other players were out.

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@ Tennessee Titans - W - Bills continue pattern of a wake-up call after ugly loss

CINCINNATI BENGALS - L - Bengals put together a great team this year and we are not quite there yet

@ Jacksonville Jaguars - W - Away game in neutral territory, Rex's D destroy's Doug's O-Line

MIAMI DOLPHINS - W - Bills own the Fins, plain and simple

@ New York Jets - L - Rex will be trash talking all week then drop a deuce upon return to his old team

@ New England Patriots - L - I wish I could believe this is a W, but I'm not getting my hopes up after the week 2 beat down

@ Kansas City Chiefs - W - I think we finally take one from KC this year

HOUSTON TEXANS - W - This team is in disarray, until they figure out what's going on at QB I don't care if they have 11 Watts on D

@ Philadelphia Eagles - W - McCoy is healthy and gets fired up for this game, runs for 150 yards and 2 TDs

@ Washington Redskins - W - 'Skins are fighting for draft position at this point in the season

DALLAS COWBOYS - L - Romo is back and ready to save the Cowboys. Probably too late for them but they'll be strong

NEW YORK JETS - W - The Bills are finishing this season with a bang. 10-6 earns us a wild card spot in this year's weak AFC

 

I think we'll shock Cinci. We can't suck 3 straight times in our own backyard as long as they get a grip on the foolish penalties

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I don't know what to predict b/c the NFL is a copycat league and the word gets around on how to beat a certain team. Unless this version of this Bills shows some leadership, accountability, & self-control, I see more games like the one vs. the Giants. The wins over the Colts & Dolphins were over vastly inferior teams; that's why I was MEH after the game @ Miami. I am not a pessimist, BTW, just a realist. I don't see Rex "learning from his mistakes" while HC of the Jests.

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i totally agree they can't go on this way and they need to be curbed where possible (as Rex talked about the different kinds of penalties and which they work on and which they don't worry about). I just mean that it was totally overblown IMO by the media as something that will "doom" them on their own and decide the season. They were second to most penalties in the league last year and one game away from playoffs with winning record. Seattle led the league and went to the SB. You either are good enough to win or you aren't. Penalties are way up with every team across the league this year. Expect to be flagged a ton, warranted or not, and play well enough to overcome.

It's not just about the amount of penalties, imo, its about the context of the penalties. What do they negate. I don't really remember any Giants flags negating scores, or 3rd down stops, like we seemed to have consistently on the day. But, since I don't have proof, I'll back out on my opinion since it seems I'm in the minority.

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Yolo is right statistically. Penalties are almost anecdotal. If you want the real stat that matters in games, one needs to only look at turnovers and history of W/L in the NFL. In the last 20 years, collectively:

-1 in turnovers lost about 90% of the time

-2 in turnovers lost about 94% of the time

-3 in turnovers lost about 99% of the time

 

Buffalo was +3 versus both the Colts and Dolphins and won. They were -1 versus both the Patriots and Giants and lost. Marv Levy used to say that if a team is consistently winning the turnover battle that ANY team will be 10-6 or better. That's what it takes. Pretty much everything else is ancillary.

Excellent point. So much of that ancillary stuff is just water- cooler fodder for gripe sessions after a loss. It doesn't amount to that much. And it didn't so much vs Giants. Coaching can only put players in position to not get beat. They can still get beat. Most players and ex players will say that the majority of what happens out on the field is due to the players. They may have inherent bias, but they are also the ones out there on game day so they know better than anyone else. It's laughable after every win how much the coaching/ play calling gets praised, but is automatically a problem after a loss. It's often just that a guy missed a block, QB made a wrong read etc. not an issue with design, etc. the teams that wins turnover battle usually wins the game. And the team with the better QB ( even that day) wins more often than not.

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@ Tennessee Titans - W - Bills continue pattern of a wake-up call after ugly loss

 

WIN.....but im a bit torn because Marriota is my kids friend and a Im rooting for him to be great in the NFL

 

 

CINCINNATI BENGALS - L - Bengals put together a great team this year and we are not quite there yet

 

WIN.....the bills will be up for the bengals......this will be the game on our schedule that people expect us to lose but we end up winning.

@ Jacksonville Jaguars - W - Away game in neutral territory, Rex's D destroy's Doug's O-Line

 

WIN.....cuz the jags will find a way to lose

MIAMI DOLPHINS - W - Bills own the Fins, plain and simple

 

WIN......because they are a train wreck

@ New York Jets - L - Rex will be trash talking all week then drop a deuce upon return to his old team

 

Loss......because they are gonna be up for us....and because we will have lost too many games in a row

 

@ New England Patriots - L - I wish I could believe this is a W, but I'm not getting my hopes up after the week 2 beat down

 

Loss.....cuz we havent figured them out yet

@ Kansas City Chiefs - W - I think we finally take one from KC this year

 

WIN.....cuz they arent that good

HOUSTON TEXANS - W - This team is in disarray, until they figure out what's going on at QB I don't care if they have 11 Watts on D

 

Win

@ Philadelphia Eagles - W - McCoy is healthy and gets fired up for this game, runs for 150 yards and 2 TDs

 

Loss

@ Washington Redskins - W - 'Skins are fighting for draft position at this point in the season

 

Win

DALLAS COWBOYS - L - Romo is back and ready to save the Cowboys. Probably too late for them but they'll be strong

 

Loss

NEW YORK JETS - W - The Bills are finishing this season with a bang. 10-6 earns us a wild card spot in this year's weak AFC

 

WIn

That gets me to 10-6.....my original prediction for the year......there are some games in their that we could def win to get us to 11-5

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It's not just about the amount of penalties, imo, its about the context of the penalties. What do they negate. I don't really remember any Giants flags negating scores, or 3rd down stops, like we seemed to have consistently on the day. But, since I don't have proof, I'll back out on my opinion since it seems I'm in the minority.

no I think I'm the one in the minority - it's a fair point. One Giants flag had dpi on their CB in coverage on Harvin which was not a good call. Gave bills a 1st down. Again, not saying the penalties that took the TDs off the board or that let the NYG go for a TD vs a FG were meaningless. Just that they didn't swing the game on their own. Bills missed a FG, couldn't get in the end zone on 4th and goal, TT had wide open guys for TDs that he didn't see, the Bills failed To tackle a RB on a short pass that led to a TD, etc etc. play well enough to win and you will win because the refs are simply not going to stop throwing flags and making inconsistent calls. Edited by YoloinOhio
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We will not lose 3 straight home games. Outside of that I either agree or don't disagree enough to say anything. I just feel strong that we will beat the Bengals.

Well, we've already lost two, so at this point he's predicting a one-game home losing streak. What's in the past is done.

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