NoSaint Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 There's so much money associated with the activity that is the NFL that there's no way there isn't corruption at many levels. Our game against the Giants had many moments that elicit feelings of conspiracy and said so in other threads. #1 on the hit parade is our kneeling out the first half. Rex's public reasoning was to keep time away from the Giants. Complete BS. The playcalling and time management looked like a kneel - out to any NFL fan. Why ? We were in it and had plenty of new pays and schemes we could try - especially ince we hadn't run many plays in the first QTR anyway. The answer to that is related to the subject of this post plus the Billions of $ bet on the games themselves aside from fantasy. I still submit that it looked for a very long time in the Giants (an inferior roster by all experts' analysis) game that the Bills were not trying to win. I'll STFU when i can get a cogent, football explanation of the last 2 minutes of the half playcalling in the Giant game. could it simply be that our qb and OC werent on the same page - and generally speaking it was Romans best day? could be the lack of 2-3 OL starters, starting RB, and #1 receiver pushing them to be conservative with their inexperienced qb.
ToGoGo Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 (edited) There's so much money associated with the activity that is the NFL that there's no way there isn't corruption at many levels. Our game against the Giants had many moments that elicit feelings of conspiracy and said so in other threads. #1 on the hit parade is our kneeling out the first half. Rex's public reasoning was to keep time away from the Giants. Complete BS. The playcalling and time management looked like a kneel - out to any NFL fan. Why ? We were in it and had plenty of new pays and schemes we could try - especially ince we hadn't run many plays in the first QTR anyway. The answer to that is related to the subject of this post plus the Billions of $ bet on the games themselves aside from fantasy. I still submit that it looked for a very long time in the Giants (an inferior roster by all experts' analysis) game that the Bills were not trying to win. I'll STFU when i can get a cogent, football explanation of the last 2 minutes of the half playcalling in the Giant game. I think about that sometimes. Are players/coaches willing to throw the game? I'm open-minded to what you are saying, but do you really think Rex was trying to lose? I believe in refs calling penalties (or not calling penalties) at just the right times to influence games, but I feel like too many people would need to conspire for players and coaches to throw games. Explain a bit more about how you think this would go down. Edited October 7, 2015 by musichunch
Mikie2times Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 (edited) I ran a sports betting service for a few years. A lot of time invested. money was a nice supplement, especially because it was something I enjoyed, but eventually it was just consuming too much time. I played on FanDuel for a little bit. I figured how could this be more challenging than a book. Well, it is. I knew what I was up against my first day when I used all my models and saw half the teams littered with my "sleepers". Only very sharp players play for anything of significance on these sites. In any event the entire concept comparative to sports betting has really pissed me off over the years. One is deemed a skill and one is not. One is allowed to operate legally in the US and one is not. Exact same model. The skill is in the user. Hacks play fantasy, hacks bet on sports. Some people approach both with a lot of sophistication. The biggest difference I have noticed between the two is one is allowed to just plaster the TV while the other was never as bold. It shocks me. One guy in the commercial even says something like "it was such a rush winning real money". Where is the moral outrage? I can't imagine if a sports better said that on a commercial. I don't even want moral outrage. I wish both would be available and policed as much as possible. Probably won't see it in my lifetime. One thing we will absolutely see is more events like this. We will also see more "Fantasy shaving". All it takes is one player. These drafts cover thousands of games. Once we see more of this we will see an end to the commercials, add regulation, and perhaps a similar shun as sports betting. Edited October 7, 2015 by KzooMike
BADOLBILZ Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 @nytimes: Breaking News: Scandal erupts in the fantasy sports industry after allegations of insider betting http://t.co/lvImU91GLG Jerry Jones and Robert Kraft have stakes in Draft Kings Before this broke, Tim Graham had the front page story Sunday in TBN about this sketchy industry. It's obviously just an unregulated excuse to extract wads of cash from people who are bad at math and more often than not can't afford to give it away. I think their downfall may be that they have annoyed the hell out of millions of fantasy-disinterested observers with their incessant advertising.......to the point that those people are questioning their impact/influence on our pasttimes. Two of the worst things about being a modern NFL fan are the advertising and the knuckleheads who are always interjecting their utterly pointless fantasy roster choices into conversations.
ToGoGo Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 I ran a sports betting service for a few years. A lot of time invested. money was a nice supplement, especially because it was something I enjoyed, but eventually it was just consuming too much time. I played on FanDuel for a little bit. I figured how could this be more challenging than a book. Well, it is. I knew what I was up against my first day when I used all my models and saw half the teams littered with my "sleepers". Only very sharp players play for anything of significance on these sites. In any event the entire concept comparative to sports betting has really pissed me off over the years. One is deemed a skill and one is not. One is allowed to operate legally in the US and one is not. Exact same model. The skill is in the user. Hacks play fantasy, hacks bet on sports. Some people approach both with a lot of sophistication. The biggest difference I have noticed between the two is one is allowed to just plaster the TV while the other was never as bold. It shocks me. One guy in the commercial even says something like "it was such a rush winning real money". Where is the moral outrage? I can't imagine if a sports better said that on a commercial. I don't even want moral outrage. I wish both would be available and policed as much as possible. Probably won't see it in my lifetime. One thing we will absolutely see is more events like this. We will also see more "Fantasy shaving". All it takes is one player. These drafts cover thousands of games. Once we see more of this we will see an end to the commercials, add regulation, and perhaps a similar shun as sports betting. What I suspect is that the usage rates run deeper than what the reports are telling us. Once I read a thread on the Roto board from a guy complaining that every single guaranteed tournament he enters into, no matter how short they are of players, ends up full at the last minute. There were a lot of posters saying "you're a noob, that's because everybody waits til the last second because they think they're smart". Now I wonder if those posters were DK and FD shills. Perhaps DK and FD have an algorithm that takes the lineups of 4000 or so real players and calculates according to usage rates and other calculations another 6000 dummy lineups that will more than likely prevent the real players from winning the top prizes. By doing this, DK and FD can avoid paying out over 50% of the winnings and keep it for themselves.
Mikie2times Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 What I suspect is that the usage rates run deeper than what the reports are telling us. Once I read a thread on the Roto board from a guy complaining that every single guaranteed tournament he enters into, no matter how short they are of players, ends up full at the last minute. There were a lot of posters saying "you're a noob, that's because everybody waits til the last second because they think they're smart". Now I wonder if those posters were DK and FD shills. Perhaps DK and FD have an algorithm that takes the lineups of 4000 or so real players and calculates according to usage rates and other calculations another 6000 dummy lineups that will more than likely prevent the real players from winning the top prizes. By doing this, DK and FD can avoid paying out over 50% of the winnings and keep it for themselves. Wouldn't shock me. I would say why go to such lengths when you're making money hand over fist but that never seemed to matter for people in the past.
ToGoGo Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 Wouldn't shock me. I would say why go to such lengths when you're making money hand over fist but that never seemed to matter for people in the past. Greed. And lack of regulation How long into the start-up of the company before the founders said "Hey, we can keep making 13% per tournament, or we can use the data we have to keep even more of the winnings and nobody will ever know". It was a matter of time.
Billsguy Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 I'm surprised the NFL allows Kraft and Jones to own a piece of Draft Kings. Oh wait, they are the NFL.....how silly of me.... The NFL's main objective is to separate as much money as possible from as many people as possible.
What a Tuel Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 (edited) What I suspect is that the usage rates run deeper than what the reports are telling us. Once I read a thread on the Roto board from a guy complaining that every single guaranteed tournament he enters into, no matter how short they are of players, ends up full at the last minute. There were a lot of posters saying "you're a noob, that's because everybody waits til the last second because they think they're smart". Now I wonder if those posters were DK and FD shills. Perhaps DK and FD have an algorithm that takes the lineups of 4000 or so real players and calculates according to usage rates and other calculations another 6000 dummy lineups that will more than likely prevent the real players from winning the top prizes. By doing this, DK and FD can avoid paying out over 50% of the winnings and keep it for themselves. They make money hand over fist without doing this. 10% of all bets go to them. Think about that for a second. I don't necessarily think that the companies themselves are doing anything against the rules, the risk is to great for the racket they have going on. I wouldn't put it past employees acting on their own greed with the information and access they have though. Edited October 7, 2015 by What a Tuel
Big Gun Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 (edited) Ya, all this money floating around and we are supposed to believe that these games are for real. They are, my brother won $15,000. He had the check from FD in a week. It was real, I held it, he deposited into his bank with no problems. Regardless if there are shenanigans going on, FD is real, and real money is won and paid. Edited October 7, 2015 by old school
nichebiche Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 What I suspect is that the usage rates run deeper than what the reports are telling us. Once I read a thread on the Roto board from a guy complaining that every single guaranteed tournament he enters into, no matter how short they are of players, ends up full at the last minute. There were a lot of posters saying "you're a noob, that's because everybody waits til the last second because they think they're smart". Now I wonder if those posters were DK and FD shills. Perhaps DK and FD have an algorithm that takes the lineups of 4000 or so real players and calculates according to usage rates and other calculations another 6000 dummy lineups that will more than likely prevent the real players from winning the top prizes. By doing this, DK and FD can avoid paying out over 50% of the winnings and keep it for themselves. Here are two articles published on Friday from 2 independent websites containing the same information this insider trader was purported to be using. It is available to the public, if you know where to look. Just like all information is out there if you want to find it. The employee was a top-ranked player before he worked for DraftKings and the data in question does not translate so easily because of differences in rules and scoring. https://rotogrinders.com/articles/the-nfl-field-report-week-4-859774 http://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/2015/w4/tournament-ownership-outlook-week-4 As for adding dummy lineups to save them from losing money...dude, that's just lazy conspiracy at best. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have over 1 million users. A good percentage of them are sitting at their computers on Sunday morning trying to gain an advantage by entering tournaments going unfilled. You can have lineups ready to go. I enter 10-20 lineups ahead of time and export them into a tournament with about 4 clicks. Do the math - it only takes 1,000 people across the U.S. and Cananda entering 10 lineups into a tournament that to equal 10,000 entries...all in a matter of 4 clicks at 12:55 Sunday afternoon. The reason so few don't get filled is because both companies have statistics that tell them how many users have been active, what the most popular games and price points are, etc. No, they don't want to lose money, so they put out just enough so they will all get filled. But, they have trouble guessing at the start of any new season so Week 1 I was in a big tournament that filled 42,000 of 57,500, increasing my odds to place from 20% to 25%. In Week 1 of college football, the big tournament on DK filled only 50%. It happens, maybe your friend isn't very good at finding them? This whole thing wouldn't be a story if the employee hadn't won big on a competitor's site. He was already one of the best and we all had access to very similar information as him. And still, he had to play the right players who actually produced, which. While computer models can try to predict outcomes, there are numerous factors they can't control like injuries, unexpected game flow and coaches decisions. This is SO overblown. But, hey, let's not let facts get in the way of a good story...
buffalover4life Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 Adam Silver has been talking about legalizing gambling for a while now. The DK and FD marketing blitz has been so strong you have to wonder where this money is coming from. It's just not something I've ever seen venture capital money do. I think the major sports leagues are giving them discounts to promote themselves during commercials. NHL is going to expand to Vegas soon. Like I said earlier, I think they're just priming us for full-scale legalization. Too much money not to. Fan duel raised 275M at a 1B valuation. They also make 15,000-20,000 off each contest. Simple math 84,000 enter x $2 entry= 168,000-150,000 in cash prizes.$18,000 profit Also, the top 20 percent of entries double their money. I'm just looking for the one big win though
ToGoGo Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 Fan duel raised 275M at a 1B valuation. They also make 15,000-20,000 off each contest. Simple math 84,000 enter x $2 entry= 168,000-150,000 in cash prizes.$18,000 profit Also, the top 20 percent of entries double their money. I'm just looking for the one big win though Yes, they raised a lot. But name me another start-up that received venture capital money and proceeded to saturate every avenue of marketing like DK and FD have been doing. It's just not what Silicon Valley money tends to do. They seem to be putting every dime they make into marketing. What's the end-game? Here are two articles published on Friday from 2 independent websites containing the same information this insider trader was purported to be using. It is available to the public, if you know where to look. Just like all information is out there if you want to find it. The employee was a top-ranked player before he worked for DraftKings and the data in question does not translate so easily because of differences in rules and scoring. https://rotogrinders.com/articles/the-nfl-field-report-week-4-859774 http://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/2015/w4/tournament-ownership-outlook-week-4 As for adding dummy lineups to save them from losing money...dude, that's just lazy conspiracy at best. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have over 1 million users. A good percentage of them are sitting at their computers on Sunday morning trying to gain an advantage by entering tournaments going unfilled. You can have lineups ready to go. I enter 10-20 lineups ahead of time and export them into a tournament with about 4 clicks. Do the math - it only takes 1,000 people across the U.S. and Cananda entering 10 lineups into a tournament that to equal 10,000 entries...all in a matter of 4 clicks at 12:55 Sunday afternoon. The reason so few don't get filled is because both companies have statistics that tell them how many users have been active, what the most popular games and price points are, etc. No, they don't want to lose money, so they put out just enough so they will all get filled. But, they have trouble guessing at the start of any new season so Week 1 I was in a big tournament that filled 42,000 of 57,500, increasing my odds to place from 20% to 25%. In Week 1 of college football, the big tournament on DK filled only 50%. It happens, maybe your friend isn't very good at finding them? This whole thing wouldn't be a story if the employee hadn't won big on a competitor's site. He was already one of the best and we all had access to very similar information as him. And still, he had to play the right players who actually produced, which. While computer models can try to predict outcomes, there are numerous factors they can't control like injuries, unexpected game flow and coaches decisions. This is SO overblown. But, hey, let's not let facts get in the way of a good story... Interesting. Didn't know that info was available, although it seems to be estimates and not exact data like what employees probably have access to. Regardless, the "real" insider info is having access to the lineups that players like maxdalury set. Those guys know what to do with usage data, so it's way easier to just copy their lineups than do the math yourself. If the usage rate scandal is overblown, it goes with the theory that says this is a smear campaign in order to enforce regulation. And about my "lazy conspiracy theory", Ashley Madison was just busted for having over 80% of their female accounts be fake dummy accounts. Dummy accounts are real issue in 2015 in every industry. I just threw it out there as an idea. I find that any industry where 20 or 30something males congregate, it tends to get shady (ex. gambling, DFS, nightclubs, beer pong tournaments, etc.)
Luxy312 Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 These allegations are totally inflated....err.....deflated. Well, they're just not true. To make me believe, you would have to show me the tape, which I'm pretty sure has been destroyed. All kidding aside, this would destroy either/both of them if it was true and they would be subject to massive massive litigation.
jimmy10 Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 They seem to be putting every dime they make into marketing. What's the end-game? Separate as many people from their money as possible before being found out and/or shut down.
blzrul Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 Jerry Jones, Robert Kraft...oooh I bet Snyder is seething that they cut him out. Betcha he turns up somewhere.
ToGoGo Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 Separate as many people from their money as possible before being found out and/or shut down. Yes, but think in basic business terms: Marketing = Expenses Revenue - Expenses = Profit At what point does marketing over-saturation start to become redundant and a waste of money? That's what I'm arguing here. It makes me wonder if making money is the goal or if it's something else. Like exposure therapy on the public to desensitize them on sports gambling when it eventually becomes legalized. It's not like DK and FD are partnered with the MLB, NBA, and NHL or anything.
plenzmd1 Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 Here are two articles published on Friday from 2 independent websites containing the same information this insider trader was purported to be using. It is available to the public, if you know where to look. Just like all information is out there if you want to find it. The employee was a top-ranked player before he worked for DraftKings and the data in question does not translate so easily because of differences in rules and scoring. https://rotogrinders.com/articles/the-nfl-field-report-week-4-859774 http://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/2015/w4/tournament-ownership-outlook-week-4 As for adding dummy lineups to save them from losing money...dude, that's just lazy conspiracy at best. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have over 1 million users. A good percentage of them are sitting at their computers on Sunday morning trying to gain an advantage by entering tournaments going unfilled. You can have lineups ready to go. I enter 10-20 lineups ahead of time and export them into a tournament with about 4 clicks. Do the math - it only takes 1,000 people across the U.S. and Cananda entering 10 lineups into a tournament that to equal 10,000 entries...all in a matter of 4 clicks at 12:55 Sunday afternoon. The reason so few don't get filled is because both companies have statistics that tell them how many users have been active, what the most popular games and price points are, etc. No, they don't want to lose money, so they put out just enough so they will all get filled. But, they have trouble guessing at the start of any new season so Week 1 I was in a big tournament that filled 42,000 of 57,500, increasing my odds to place from 20% to 25%. In Week 1 of college football, the big tournament on DK filled only 50%. It happens, maybe your friend isn't very good at finding them? This whole thing wouldn't be a story if the employee hadn't won big on a competitor's site. He was already one of the best and we all had access to very similar information as him. And still, he had to play the right players who actually produced, which. While computer models can try to predict outcomes, there are numerous factors they can't control like injuries, unexpected game flow and coaches decisions. This is SO overblown. But, hey, let's not let facts get in the way of a good story... cool post. I do not play FF either daily or long term...so am not very knowledgeable on these sites. I also thought was overblown. I believe the biggest threat to these sites is not "insider" type stuff...but more moralist going bat chit crazy over the legality...and the poker lobby going bat chit crazy saying "me too"
Chandler#81 Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 Excellent points and insight folks! Thanks. To this non-gambler, it just seems too easy to fix from the inside.. (the gambling picks, not the games themselves.)
Buffalo_Stampede Posted October 7, 2015 Posted October 7, 2015 I'm surprised it's taken this long to investigate fantasy football. Surprised the NFL allows players to participate. Big money in this.
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