cage Posted October 1, 2015 Posted October 1, 2015 So here's some interesting analysis from Nate Silver's 538 site. He's been focusing more and more on sports statistics. The core article is The Complete History of the NFL which looks at every season of every team based on used Elo ratings, a simple system that estimates each team’s skill level using only the final scores and locations of each game. Based on 2015 predictions the Bill's are rated as having a 59% chance of making playoffs, but only 3% chance of winning the SB They have a 72% chance of winning on Sunday, so the odds will go up next week...discuss!
SactoBillFan Posted October 1, 2015 Posted October 1, 2015 Well it's better than 41%. Cautiously optimistic I've seen hotter starts than this go down the toilet.
Wazzu Bill Posted October 1, 2015 Posted October 1, 2015 Well it's better than 41%. Cautiously optimistic I've seen hotter starts than this go down the toilet. +1, Detroit circa 2013
Dorkington Posted October 1, 2015 Posted October 1, 2015 Until I see 100% odds after week 17, I'll keep from celebrating. We've been here before
Dont Stop Billeiving Posted October 1, 2015 Posted October 1, 2015 As everyone said above, we've been burned too many times before. This team does feel different than those ones though and it's good to have the stats on our side this time around!
Virgil Posted October 1, 2015 Posted October 1, 2015 I remember these threads from when we were 5-2 those few times. This is the biggest jinx of them all
Herb Sewell Posted October 1, 2015 Posted October 1, 2015 It's 50/50, but there's only a 10% chance of that.
Augie Posted October 1, 2015 Posted October 1, 2015 It's 50/50, but there's only a 10% chance of that. Were you my calculus teacher? He made about that much sense to me....
strive_for_five_guy Posted October 1, 2015 Posted October 1, 2015 So here's some interesting analysis from Nate Silver's 538 site. He's been focusing more and more on sports statistics. The core article is The Complete History of the NFL which looks at every season of every team based on used Elo ratings, a simple system that estimates each teams skill level using only the final scores and locations of each game. Based on 2015 predictions the Bill's are rated as having a 59% chance of making playoffs, but only 3% chance of winning the SB They have a 72% chance of winning on Sunday, so the odds will go up next week...discuss! Interesting, although the odds could go down next week if the Bills lose, which has a 28% chance of happening.
3rdand12 Posted October 1, 2015 Posted October 1, 2015 (edited) holy crap that's even more than 57% depending on correction factors such as barometric pressure and ambient air temps. +/ - 3% difficult to gauge, lol ps i am just needling you jw Edited October 1, 2015 by 3rdand12
CodeMonkey Posted October 2, 2015 Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) FWIW neither model, FiveThirtyEight or Cortana, have had a spectacular season thus far They should both get better now as more data is available. Edited October 2, 2015 by CodeMonkey
SF Bills Fan Posted October 2, 2015 Posted October 2, 2015 I'll be convinced they are playoff team when they run on the field for that playoff game
Herb Sewell Posted October 2, 2015 Posted October 2, 2015 Were you my calculus teacher? He made about that much sense to me.... Never saw "Naked Gun", huh?
Augie Posted October 2, 2015 Posted October 2, 2015 Never saw "Naked Gun", huh? Too busy scratching my head over calculus, I guess.
YattaOkasan Posted October 2, 2015 Posted October 2, 2015 Until I see 100% odds after week 17, I'll keep from celebrating. We've been here before I'd take 100% odds in week 16 or 15 as well
stevestojan Posted October 2, 2015 Posted October 2, 2015 holy crap that's even more than 57% Show off.
26CornerBlitz Posted October 2, 2015 Posted October 2, 2015 @BuffRumblings #Bills' playoff odds rapidly rising according to @numberfire http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2015/10/2/9431105/bills-playoff-odds-rapidly-rising http://www.numberfire.com/nfl/teams/power-rankings
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted October 2, 2015 Posted October 2, 2015 60% of all stats are correct 40% of the time ... Nice stats but it is only week 4. I'll start getting excited when the Bills are 5-3 or better in 4 weeks
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