YoloinOhio Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Haha I've read some of that over there. There's a few guys saying the Bills defense is bad because they "gave up 40 points." Their memory must be selective, because they forget that the 2000 Ravens gave up 36 points in week two to an eventual 7-9 Jaguars team. That defense DOMINATED the Giants in the Super Bowl that year. Again, statistics without context. I follow the NBA pretty closely, and theyre light years ahead of the NFL in contextualizing game stats (though admittedly it's easier to do for basketball). I wish more of this stuff would seep into NFL analysis. good points. I hope they are prepared to give up at least that when they play the Pats. Brady (and Rodgers) are on another level right now and look like they are just out for batting practice every week. The only D I think will give Brady a challenge might be Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Point differential has a correlation of 1.0 with winning, and the bigger the differential the better! Other than that, basic football stats are tough to draw many conclusions from without proper context. The best I can say is Rushing Yards and Passer Rating/ Efficiency seem to correlate pretty well with winning.Rushing averages, and Passing Yardage stats are a mess due to context or if you prefer "garbage" time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 This is the most important stat so far: The Bills dominated two 1-2 teams. They were dominated by one of the six NFL 3-0 teams. But here is the defensive stat to hang your hats on. The Bills have faced, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady and Ryan Tannehill, which is a cross section of QBs almost universally regarded as being in the top half of the league and two who are generally considered top 10, and one who maybe the GOAT. The Bills rank fifth in the league in defensive passer rating, holding the three teams they have faced to a rating of 78.1, fifth in the NFL so far this season. If the Bills offense is effective, teams are forced to put the ball in the air. Garbage time or not, that is an impressive stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 (edited) Another way of adding context to the passing yards allowed stat, is to list the QB ratings. With the exception of Brady, I think we'll find that our D has held some very good QBs to some very poor performance ratings. EDIT: and sure enough, I see the post immediately above mine makes that point while I was typing my own. Great minds. GO BILLS!!! Edited September 29, 2015 by K-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Just give me the W's and a playoff appearance win and I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Ryan put a stake in the ground saying anything less than #1 was a disappointment. Fine. Stop giving up yards and TD's in garbage time. Somehow the Cheats D doesn't seem to do that (the Bills game notwithstanding). If the D wants that #1 ranking, they need to put up or shut up.. I'm sure any injuries to starters in garbage time are acceptable. After all the pursuit of that #1 ranking is paramount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The #1 statistical defense is important if you have a bad offense that can't score points -- which is what everyone thought the Bills would be heading into training camp. The dynamic has shifted. Buffalo appears to actually be capable of building big leads against teams that don't cheat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Points allowed means more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills Analyst Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Another way of adding context to the passing yards allowed stat, is to list the QB ratings. With the exception of Brady, I think we'll find that our D has held some very good QBs to some very poor performance ratings. EDIT: and sure enough, I see the post immediately above mine makes that point while I was typing my own. Great minds. GO BILLS!!! You can also look at the number of pass attempts and yards/attempt. Teams have passed more against the bills than any other team. And they are tied with the 4th lowest yards/attempt at 6.4. So if teams pass more against you, you are likely going to give up more yards. And the bills are 4th best in opponent pass completion % at 57.3. So not so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Apparently a lot of callers to sports talk radio shows. Rex has been on record about wanting the #1 Defense, and has mentioned tightening up garbage time play... even if he was being a bit facetious, he cares about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Rex has been on record about wanting the #1 Defense, and has mentioned tightening up garbage time play... even if he was being a bit facetious, he cares about this. If it leads to more injuries I'm not in favor of chasing stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I prefer to look at it as "statistics with context". I kinda think statistics without context are useless. I don't beleive all yards are created equal. Of course there is room for disagreement there. Yes you are absolutely right. Context matters a great deal. This is why most end of game stats are pretty much useless. They very often times paint a different picture than what actually happened. And they are used by people on forums like this one, to try to justify a position and make something appear true even though it is not. This game of football is a game of possessions. The goal is to score when you have the ball. The goal is to stop the other team from scoring and take the ball away from them. Other than individual drive stats, the rest of the stats are mostly meaningless with a few exceptions. Certain stats would paint a more accurate picture of how good an offense is and how good a defense really is. Better stats would be things like these: Offensive stats: % of drives ending in turnovers % of drives starting 70 yards or longer that result in touchdowns % of drives starting 70 yards or longer that result in field goals % of drives starting less than 70 yards resulting in touchdowns etc....... Defensive stats: % of drives ending in punts when opponents drive started from 70 yards or longer % of drives ending in field goals for other team when drive started from 70 yards or longer % of drives ending in touchdowns for other team when drive started from 70 yards or longer % of drives ending in opponent's turnovers % of drives ending in punts when opponents drive starter from inside 70 yards etc...... Those stats would paint a much more accurate view of which team is better and whether it comes from offense or defense. And having similar stats for special teams would also help clarify that. Ultimately the score is what really matters. But drive stats like those would be the next best thing. I bet the gambling insiders in Las Vegas keep track of such stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 If it leads to more injuries I'm not in favor of chasing stats. I was annoyed we had so many defensive starters in at the end of the game. Especially KW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 You can also look at the number of pass attempts and yards/attempt. Teams have passed more against the bills than any other team. And they are tied with the 4th lowest yards/attempt at 6.4. So if teams pass more against you, you are likely going to give up more yards. And the bills are 4th best in opponent pass completion % at 57.3. So not so bad. Agree entirely. While all these numbers go into the QB ratings anyway, YPA is what coaches key on; it's one of the key stats of their stat triumvirate with the others being yards per carry rushing allowed and total number of rushing attempts allowed. GO BILLS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Ryan put a stake in the ground saying anything less than #1 was a disappointment. Fine. Stop giving up yards and TD's in garbage time. Somehow the Cheats D doesn't seem to do that (the Bills game notwithstanding). If the D wants that #1 ranking, they need to put up or shut up. No need to take chances when you can force teams to take 8 minutes to move the ball down the field and basically screw themselves out of any chance they have to win by using the clock up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayBills Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 (edited) Yes you are absolutely right. Context matters a great deal. This is why most end of game stats are pretty much useless. They very often times paint a different picture than what actually happened. And they are used by people on forums like this one, to try to justify a position and make something appear true even though it is not. This game of football is a game of possessions. The goal is to score when you have the ball. The goal is to stop the other team from scoring and take the ball away from them. Other than individual drive stats, the rest of the stats are mostly meaningless with a few exceptions. Certain stats would paint a more accurate picture of how good an offense is and how good a defense really is. Better stats would be things like these: Offensive stats: % of drives ending in turnovers % of drives starting 70 yards or longer that result in touchdowns % of drives starting 70 yards or longer that result in field goals % of drives starting less than 70 yards resulting in touchdowns etc....... Defensive stats: % of drives ending in punts when opponents drive started from 70 yards or longer % of drives ending in field goals for other team when drive started from 70 yards or longer % of drives ending in touchdowns for other team when drive started from 70 yards or longer % of drives ending in opponent's turnovers % of drives ending in punts when opponents drive starter from inside 70 yards etc...... Those stats would paint a much more accurate view of which team is better and whether it comes from offense or defense. And having similar stats for special teams would also help clarify that. Ultimately the score is what really matters. But drive stats like those would be the next best thing. I bet the gambling insiders in Las Vegas keep track of such stats. Average starting field position as well might play a role. Edited September 29, 2015 by PlayBills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quinnearlysghost88 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Ryan put a stake in the ground saying anything less than #1 was a disappointment. Fine. Stop giving up yards and TD's in garbage time. Somehow the Cheats D doesn't seem to do that (the Bills game notwithstanding). If the D wants that #1 ranking, they need to put up or shut up. to be fair the patriots played the jags who put up 9, 17 and 20, and the steelers who put up 21, 18 and 12 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 it's also week 3. we gave up a ton of yards to chicago week one and also some big yards to a few other teams but it evened out last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Ryan put a stake in the ground saying anything less than #1 was a disappointment. Fine. Stop giving up yards and TD's in garbage time. Somehow the Cheats D doesn't seem to do that (the Bills game notwithstanding). If the D wants that #1 ranking, they need to put up or shut up. Say what? Pats* have given up a ton of yards to Steelers & Bills. Bills happened to draw teams that can move the ball in the first three weeks, so naturally the yards stat will be inflated. The better takeaway is that they're #13 in points allowed, which was the bigger worry about Ryan's teams. I'll take the # 1 rushing defense and a top 10 points allowed defense any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 (edited) The Bills defense has allowed more yardage than all but two other teams. But they've been dominant, and are statistically hindered by two blowout wins. Removing all second-half yards allowed when up by at least three possessions (17 or more points) gives a clearer view of Buffalo's defensive play. It's common belief that teams with large leads late in games will give up garbage yards at the expense of bleeding the clock, and that those yards aren't instructive of a defense's overall game effort. I'd agree with that. Against the Colts, the Bills gave up 133 yards on 43 plays in 37:40 of non-garbage time play. That converts to a full game of 68 plays for 211 yards. Against the Dolphins, the Bills allowed 124 yards on 33 plays in 30 minutes of non-garbage time play. That converts to a full game of 66 plays for 248 yards. Adding in the entirety of the Patriots game gives the Bills standardized season stats of 208 plays for 966 yards allowed, or 4.6 yards allowed per play. That'd put the bills in the top three in the league defensively, even when accounting for the Patriots debacle. The Bills likely aren't going to have a "top rated" defense this year. But that's more the fault of their surprising offense than it is of anything happening on the defensive side of the ball. You can't take out the plays you don't like ("garbage time") and then compare the stats to other teams when you aren't taking out the plays they don't like. It's not an apple-to-apple comparison. However you slice and dice it, the Bills D played well against the Colts and Fins. They did not play at all well against the Pats. It's a small sample size and I'm guessing Dennis Thurman and Rex are still fine-tuning the execution of their scheme. So I'm expecting better things ahead. But, so far, we have not been a Top 3 D if that's the implication. And that, frankly, is disappointing. Let's see what happens against the Giants. Edited September 29, 2015 by hondo in seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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