eball Posted September 17, 2015 Author Share Posted September 17, 2015 I got to tell you I follow this stuff very closely. Vegas took an absolute beating in the sports books for opening weekend. Said it was their worse opening weekend in 20 years. Putting 2 & 2 together, I had the line figured around Patriots -4. If the line is -1.5 & 85% of the action is going on the Patriots, I don't want to jinx anything but this all points to a win for the Bills. Remember you heard it here first. Vegas very rarely loses big 2 weeks in a row. You've hit upon the basis for my "yes and no" comment above. There are most certainly games in which the Vegas bookies are trying to push action in one way or the other, if they think the public will be completely wrong and they can make a lot of dough. For this week's game you saw the "sharp" money fall on the Bills early (dropping the line from NE-1 to a pick), and now the public money is driving it back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 You've hit upon the basis for my "yes and no" comment above. There are most certainly games in which the Vegas bookies are trying to push action in one way or the other, if they think the public will be completely wrong and they can make a lot of dough. For this week's game you saw the "sharp" money fall on the Bills early (dropping the line from NE-1 to a pick), and now the public money is driving it back up. Never follow the public money because they are usually wrong. Perfect example was last week. Public money was heavy on Seatle -4.5. 80% of all the tickets taken in that game were on Seatle. However the professionals were on St Louis. Even though 80% of the ticket sales were coming in on Seatle, the overall money placed on the Rams (which was only 20% of the tickets) was larger than the overall bets for Seatle. Naturally the professionals that know what they are doing won & Joe public was the big loser once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 @travisyost Patriots opened -1.5 favorites. Now, lot of pick 'em. And couple places even have Bills -1 favorites. http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Bills at Dolphins Vegas Lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 I expect this to be the last game all season in which the opponent is favored at RWS. I'd be surprised if that ended up being the case. I'd say CIN will be favored. Maybe even giants or Dolphins. Probably Dallas if Romo plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Bills at Dolphins Vegas Lines Miami with the home field advantage of +3 seems fair as I'd say the Bills and Phins are a pick 'em on neutral ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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