What will TD do with $16-17M Cap Space?

[joesz]

This is probably going to be a very interesting offseason for the Bills. With the impending release of Bledsoe ($2.2M cap savings), trade of Henry ($1.0), likely release of Prioleau ($1.5), and possible release of Lindell ($0.5), Donohoe could end up with $16-$17M of cap space. He could even gain another $2M cap savings by converting Mike Williams' $3M roster bonus into a signing bonus, which would be spread over 3 years.

 

You gotta believe TD has plans with this money. The projected salery cap space is about $5M more than he had in the 2003 offseason when he picked up Spikes, Adams, Malloy and others.

 

It is likely he'll sign Pat Williams before March 2, for something like a 3-year $13.5M contract, that would include a $6M signing bonus and cap hit of $2.5-$3M cap hit for 2005.

 

Jennings situation may depend on what happens before free agency starts on March 2. In fact, it may be tied in with the trade of Travis Henry. The Rams have already said they will franchise Pace, but what if Seahawks decide to franchise Shaun Alexander, the Colts franchise Edgerin James, and the Titans have to release Brad Hopkins in a cap savings move? That puts Jennings at least behind Walter Jones, Tra Thomas and Brad Hopkins and greatly reduces his bargaining power. At the same time, it would remove the two most attractive free agent running backs from the availability list, making Henry more attractive trade bait. It also might lead to a Henry trade to the Cardinals for OT LJ Shelton. That is why I think Jennings will not be signed before the start of free agency. And even if his asking prices comes down, the Bills may decide they have better FA options. Whoever they get, the LOT position will likely have a $3-$5M cap hit for 2005.

 

There's a good crop of OG FA prospects - DeMulling (Colts), Coleman (Bucs), Rivera (Packs), Andruzzi (Pats), and Mayberry (Eagles) look like the best of the crop. The Bills should be able to get one for a $2-$2.5M cap hit.

 

It is likely that the Packers will franchise their TE Bubba Frank, but others available include Becht (Jets), Wiggins (Vikes), and Jones (Cards). I like Wiggins who caught 71 passes last year. We should be able to get a TE for a cap hit of $1.5-$2M cap hit.

 

If we make all these moves, we have used up $9-$12M of the $16-17M cap space we had available. Knowing TD, it will probably be on the lower end of the range. Without a 1st round draft choice, they will probably have to allocate about $2M to the draft cap. That still leaves $3-$6M available for a backup QB to replace Bledsoe and to lock in some of our restricted FAs.

 

I know a lot of you hope the Bills can upgrade the PK, CB and DE positions. I'm not too concerned with DE - we got 6.5 sacks out of Kelsey and Denny in 2004, and I think Kelsey will at least double his sacks in 2005. We will probably add CB depth in the draft. With the likelihood that the Pats will resign Vinitari, I don't see any PK FAs I really like. Like most of you, I'd like the Bills to grab Nugent in the draft, but may require a high second to get him.

 

Of course, there will probably be a surprise or two - knowing Donohoe.

[BillsGuyInMalta]

Can the Packers franchise Bubba Franks? Last I heard they were in really crappy salary cap condition, to the point where they'd have to release players just to get under the cap before March 2nd.

 

I really like Freddie Jones myself...I think whoever gets him will have themselves a Pro Bowl TE...poor guy could never get it going in Arizona, but as long as he stays healthy he could dominate like he did a few years ago.

 

But I'm glad someone else brought this up...you do all realize that Pierson is just wasting millions of dollars in cap space right? His butt is as good as gone.

[UConn James]

But I'm glad someone else brought this up...you do all realize that Pierson is just wasting millions of dollars in cap space right?  His butt is as good as gone.

237767[/snapback]

 

And as the No. 3 man at both FS and SS spots, he got $1.5M/per. There's a few starters at those positions who don't get that kind of coin. PP hadn't done jack to the point, we had talent-comparable backups, and I distinctly remember a spit take when I read that headline.

 

Who exactly said TD was a shrewd negotiator? We're all allowed a mistake now and then, I guess.

[BB2004]

Resign Pat Williams to a good contract and make a hefty push for Orlando Pace or Walter Jones. I'd like to see a dominating left tackle playing for us. If that doesn't happen, get a top pash rusher, that is if one's available.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

High on TDs list in addition to the things you mention is going to be the need to get a #2 QB and a #2 RB.

 

Shane Matthews has apparently said he plan to retire and return to the couch the Bills rescued him from after our injuries to Losman and Brown. Even with a journeyman QB and disaster QB we hope never sees the light of day the $2,2 Bledsoe savings and Matthews 04 cap hit is going to make it tough. The costs of getting even a semi-talented former NFL starter like a Garcia or Warner will probably be cost prohibitive,

 

If we pick up a player like Charlie Batch or Kordellia or would seem to fit into the cap room left by the Bledsoe exodus prayer for the health and well-being of JP may be the best strategy for a fan to take.

 

At RB Shaud Williams proved to be a nice pick-up. However, no one would mistake him for a guy who should be expected as a number 2 should to be able and ready to step in and take 30-35 carries several weeks in a row as WM looks very good but preparing for the horrors of injury is something every team should do but will need to be extra careful about with WM. I love Shaud as a change-up and third down back (he needs to demonstrate he can catch though) but do not see him as our #2 RB.

[UConn James]

Resign Pat Williams to a good contract and make a hefty push for Orlando Pace or Walter Jones. I'd like to see a dominating left tackle playing for us. If that doesn't happen, get a top pash rusher, that is if one's available.

 

Sorry, but why do the Bills need a "dominating" LT or a "top" DE? And at every other position?

 

Three words for you: New York Rangers.

 

Why is it that the Steelers, Pats, Rams, and sundry other teams can plug in a 6'4", 300-lb fourth round pick at multiple slots and not skip a beat? They've got McNally/God, why not let him do his job?

[Ralonzo]

It is likely he'll sign Pat Williams before March 2, for something like a 3-year $13.5M contract, that would include a $6M signing bonus and cap hit of $2.5-$3M cap hit for 2005.

 

NFW he gets $4.5M per.

 

There's a good crop of OG FA prospects - DeMulling (Colts), Coleman (Bucs), Rivera (Packs), Andruzzi (Pats), and Mayberry (Eagles) look like the best of the crop. The Bills should be able to get one for a $2-$2.5M cap hit.

 

Doubtful. With a $5M hit at LT, 2M+ for Teague, same for Villarrial, and MW with a giant $5M+ cap hit. That's $16M for what has been only a fair OL. Can't do it. The right side is set, but if you want a dominating OL, stop the Jerry Ostroski overpaying-for-journeyman crap (i.e. Teague), and get some players. There's some very good guards and centers in the draft, and in FA. I think you might be able to fill both slots for Teague's hit and get better production out of both positions, which leaves LT.

 

Everything else seemed within the realm of posibility.

[The Jokeman]

Sorry, but why do the Bills need a "dominating" LT or a "top" DE? And at every other position?

 

Three words for you: New York Rangers.

 

Why is it that the Steelers, Pats, Rams, and sundry other teams can plug in a 6'4", 300-lb fourth round pick at multiple slots and not skip a beat? They've got McNally/God, why not let him do his job?

237793[/snapback]

Hate to break it to you but the Pats starting LT was taken in the 2nd Round (48th overall) the Rams LT was taken in the 1st Round (1st overall) and lastly the Steelers took their LT in the 2nd Round (38th overall).

[Astrobot]

Very thorough post, joesz! Well thought out and researched.

 

It will only get more interesting from now until Training Camp. The one thing I might change would be to try and extend Clements instead of getting another TE.

[jarthur31]

Easy. If we want to go to the playoffs now instead of waiting for 1 player to get ready, we should trade for Culpepper. Our window is closing fast with the D and Teams we have now!

[JP-era]

This is probably going to be a very interesting offseason for the Bills. With the impending release of Bledsoe ($2.2M cap savings), trade of Henry ($1.0), likely release of Prioleau ($1.5), and possible release of Lindell ($0.5), Donohoe could end up with $16-$17M of cap space. He could even gain another $2M cap savings by converting Mike Williams' $3M roster bonus into a signing bonus, which would be spread over 3 years.

 

You gotta believe TD has plans with this money. The projected salery cap space is about $5M more than he had in the 2003 offseason when he picked up Spikes, Adams, Malloy and others.

 

It is likely he'll sign Pat Williams before March 2, for something like a 3-year $13.5M contract, that would include a $6M signing bonus and cap hit of $2.5-$3M cap hit for 2005.

 

Jennings situation may depend on what happens before free agency starts on March 2. In fact, it may be tied in with the trade of Travis Henry. The Rams have already said they will franchise Pace, but what if Seahawks decide to franchise Shaun Alexander, the Colts franchise Edgerin James, and the Titans have to release Brad Hopkins in a cap savings move? That puts Jennings at least behind Walter Jones, Tra Thomas and Brad Hopkins and greatly reduces his bargaining power. At the same time, it would remove the two most attractive free agent running backs from the availability list, making Henry more attractive trade bait. It also might lead to a Henry trade to the Cardinals for OT LJ Shelton. That is why I think Jennings will not be signed before the start of free agency. And even if his asking prices comes down, the Bills may decide they have better FA options. Whoever they get, the LOT position will likely have a $3-$5M cap hit for 2005.

 

There's a good crop of OG FA prospects - DeMulling (Colts), Coleman (Bucs), Rivera (Packs), Andruzzi (Pats), and Mayberry (Eagles) look like the best of the crop. The Bills should be able to get one for a $2-$2.5M cap hit.

 

It is likely that the Packers will franchise their TE Bubba Frank, but others available include Becht (Jets), Wiggins (Vikes), and Jones (Cards). I like Wiggins who caught 71 passes last year. We should be able to get a TE for a cap hit of $1.5-$2M cap hit.

 

If we make all these moves, we have used up $9-$12M of the $16-17M cap space we had available. Knowing TD, it will probably be on the lower end of the range. Without a 1st round draft choice, they will probably have to allocate about $2M to the draft cap. That still leaves $3-$6M available for a backup QB to replace Bledsoe and to lock in some of our restricted FAs.

 

I know a lot of you hope the Bills can upgrade the PK, CB and DE positions. I'm not too concerned with DE - we got 6.5 sacks out of Kelsey and Denny in 2004, and I think Kelsey will at least double his sacks in 2005. We will probably add CB depth in the draft. With the likelihood that the Pats will resign Vinitari, I don't see any PK FAs I really like. Like most of you, I'd like the Bills to grab Nugent in the draft, but may require a high second to get him.

 

Of course, there will probably be a surprise or two - knowing Donohoe.

237766[/snapback]

 

 

Well said.

 

Fortunately, I think we have lots of options.

( I hope this is in chronological order).

 

LT-

 

1) We can watch what FA brings us and choose to pay top dollar for a stud LT if available.

2) Resign JJ to a reasonable contract (reasonable is not a fair term to use, a touch to vague), maybe something like 4 mill per.

3) We could move Mike to LT and sign a cheaper RT, maybe someone like Kareem McKenzie

4) I dont see the draft being a good avenue. Great LT's should probably be drafetd early, it will take a while to develop one, and we need an upgrade to Jennings or Jennings at that spot right away, especially with a very yound QB possibly at the helm.

 

LG-

 

1) We again can wait and see whats out there. I think we will sign ourselves this years version of Villarial at say 3 mill per and end the whole issue right there. Could be Rivera, Coleman, or Andruzzi.

2) The draft may be a good spot for us to grab one, between Elton Brown, David Baas, and CJ Brooks we will have a shot at a decent one in the 2nd round. G can start right away and wont be stuck on an island which helps them to be good early.

 

TE

 

1) I think we grab one from FA, Franks or Becht maybe Wiggins. Probably can be done for 2-3 mill per.

2) Heath Miller is great but figure to be long gone by our picks, Alex Smith from Stanford is a guy I like and would probably be there in the 2nd maybe 3rd if we wanted him.

 

K

 

1) Probably the draft, and yes Nugent in the 2nd, I hope its a higher 2nd from a Travis trade. or 1a would be to get Vinateri but he probably wont go anywhere. Word is that he is indeed going to test the market before signing the a typical cheapskate Pats contract.

 

RB

 

1) Draft figure to have somne late round guys with speed JJ Arrington, Darren Sproles, Walter Reyes, all look pretty good.

 

CB

 

1) This may be a sleeper. I like McGee personally but I know others are not as fond of him at CB. I think TD has some cards up his sleeve and this might be one spot. I think TD wants to land a stud LT first but will quickly change to studs at other positions if need be. With the rumored interest in Surtain by us, I think he has in mind landing a stud CB to give us the best secondary in the league and to lessen a potential blow in 2006 if Clements leaves. Again, our option for a stud LT has to be gone before he even goes here but maybe hes looking at: Ken Lucas, Fred Smoot, Charles Woodson (if let go), or maybe a trade for Surtain. how about Law who might be cut if he doesnt take a paycut.

 

2) If we dont go the above route I think we get one from the draft in mid rounds and trust in McGee as our starter. I honestly havent watched the CB prospects enough to have any real opinion on who.

 

WR

 

1) This could be the other potential sleeper spot. TD may pay decent money or even big money to land another WR. I have a feeling that TD and co. feel they should add as much talent to the supporting cast as possible to help out JP. I dont see us grabbing a Plax Burress unless he is in love with him, but maybe a young guy who productive like TJ Housh or Travis Taylor or Alex Bannister. I just have a strange feeling that we are going to make a sleeper FA grab, maybe this is a spot, you wouldnt think so with the restructure of Moulds.

 

2) Draft, I love this as a spot to grab in the draft. Jerome Mathis and Chauncey Stovall are my mid-round favorites. Mathis may have pushed himself into the 2nd which could be to high for us to skip other higher needs.

 

Just my 10 cents