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FiveThirtyEight.com's Analysis of the AFCE


CodeMonkey

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Buffalo Bills

2014 Record: 9-7 | 2015 Proj. W: 8.0 | Playoff Odds: 33.1%
Off. Rank: 24th | Def. Rank: 2nd | S.T. Rank: 18th

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-brady-and-the-patriots-take-on-the-dolphins-bills-and-jets/

 

Has them ranked 3rd in the AFCE only ahead of the Jests.

 

Let the hate begin!

Edited by CodeMonkey
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Everyone has consistently put us behind the Pats and Dolphins, and generally in the middle of the pack in the league. At this point I have no hate to put out. The Bills need to have more consistent success on the field before we deserve respect with these predictions.

Edited by Dorkington
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Pretty good analysis; I can't argue, although I hope Taylor ends up better than they predict. What's interesting to me is what they say about the Jets the last 3 seasons. Basically, they were a 5 win team each season but got lucky in close games in 2013. That rings true to me. Rex was the coach of all of those teams, of course.

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This is fair. Their offense was terrible last year. I think it will be improved but let's see what happens. The Greg Roman factor is only cared about by Bills fans. Most analysis ignores the fact that the Bills had college coaching on the offense last year. Rather be the underdog anyway.

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I think many of the pundits have the same concerns that I have, essentially it boils down to show me the baby.

 

We have a new coaching staff, new systems, and new players across the board on offense. Additionally, most all of them have missed almost the entire preseason. So, there's little to no evidence that any of it can come together in the first half of the season, let alone game 1, and make for a winning record.

 

Now, as a Bills fan, I'm eternally optimistic and trash talking more than ever with my Dolphin friend. But, realistically, not many teams historically have put this many new pieces together and had them gel into winning games immediately. Can our Bills do it? Absolutely! Will they? We'll know come November.

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I simply don't understand all the love Miami is getting.

 

Melvin !@#$ing Shepphard is their !@#$ing MLB.

 

 

I forget who it was but someone was on ESPN radio the other day picking Miami to do well and saying they had really good linebackers.....

 

 

 

Let the Dolphins have the "Offseason Champion" title and let more hate continue to be dumped on guys like Tyrod and Shady, if these guys really knew what they were talking about they'd be cranking out millions in Vegas.

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Suh was a good add for the Dolphins no doubt. I look at pretty much everything else they did as an even exchange. Added Stills/Jennings/Cameron, but lost Hartline/Wallace/Clay. Added Mosley, but lost Starks and Odrick. So they were 8-8 last season with what they had. Does Suh really put them in a position to win 11 or more? I have my doubts.

By contrast, the Bills have upgraded their offensive line, running backs, wide receivers, tight end, two fullbacks and basically kept the same guys they had on defense. Now we're taking a 9-7 team from last year (arguably one that would have been 8-8 if the Patriots needed that last game) and saying that they're just an 8-8 or 9-7 team this year. I'm fine with that if they would just come out in their "analysis" with that type of perspective. You effectively have to say that compared to Orton, that Tyrod will be a steaming pile of garbage. I also have my doubts about that.

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It's hard for me to fault people for being skeptical about the Bills being strong this year. Look at it from their point of view.

 

-New coach who has averaged 6 wins per season over the past three years.

-New offensive coordinator.

-New, untested quarterback with uninspiring back-ups.

-Two new starters on an offensive line that failed miserably last year and must be trusted to anchor the ground and pound approach Rex has staked out.

-A revamped running back corps that was plagued with injuries and missed much of the preseason must execute ground and pound.

-The learning curve that naturally comes with a new (and complex) offensive system.

 

I personally am optimistic, but I'm also a homer. It's hard for me to fault others who are neither.

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Dolphins are good on O with a up and coming young QB.

 

They added Suh to an already pretty good DLine, making them one of the best units in the NFL. They are weak at LB and average in secondary, with Grimes being the only really great player they have in the back 7. But most think their defensive line will make up for that.

 

Basically, Miami is looked at having a good offense and a good defense with a good young QB. And they have suspect coaching.

 

The Bills are looked at having a great defense, an average to below average offense with a huge question mark at QB and a coach most people think is OK.

 

The dolphins are much more balanced of a team and hence a safer choice to be better. The Bills probably have a higher ceiling if things break right, but have a distinct possibility of flaming out if the QB sucks.

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Dolphins are good on O with a up and coming young QB.

 

They added Suh to an already pretty good DLine, making them one of the best units in the NFL. They are weak at LB and average in secondary, with Grimes being the only really great player they have in the back 7. But most think their defensive line will make up for that.

 

Basically, Miami is looked at having a good offense and a good defense with a good young QB. And they have suspect coaching.

 

The Bills are looked at having a great defense, an average to below average offense with a huge question mark at QB and a coach most people think is OK.

 

The dolphins are much more balanced of a team and hence a safer choice to be better. The Bills probably have a higher ceiling if things break right, but have a distinct possibility of flaming out if the QB sucks.

How on earth are the Bills below average on offense with the players we have?

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How on earth are the Bills below average on offense with the players we have?

Suspect line, last ranked QB by some if not most, no ground and pound run game, Shady may not be 100% at the start. I personally see average not below average. But I'm a Bills fan. I think the bottom line though is QB. Rightly or wrongly, if you have one you are good, if you don't you suck.

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FYI. They just posted their ELO predictions for Week 1 and the season.

 

Buffalo is favored to beat Indy. Predicted at 9 wins on the season. 44% playoff chance and 20% chance to win division.

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/


those are higher percentages than Miami and Jets.

Edited by LeGOATski
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