Grantland predicts Bills to be a cellar dweller in 2015

[PromoTheRobot]

I think people are just referring to the usual new QB progression. Since Tyrod has never played in a game that matters, nobody has ever game planned for him. Just like a great minor league hitter gets called up and pitchers don't know his weaknesses yet, or a great minor league pitcher dominates until the second time around the league when hitters know his tendencies and whether he tips his pitches, etc.

Game planning against the Bills will be a cinch. All a team has to do is pressure TT and keep a spy on him to keep him from running while locking down Watkins, Harvin and Wood, double covering Clay,making sure the second TE doesn't get open, load up the line of scrimmage so the Bills O-line can't bust open holes and focus on McCoy so he doesn't tear you up.

 

Easy peasy.

Edited September 7, 2015 by PromoTheRobot

[Mike in Horseheads]

@Grantland33: NFL 2015 Season Predictions, Part 1: The Cellar Dwellers, by @billbarnwell http://t.co/lzINEWRCNn

Really sticking their neck out, its seems that almost everybody could be 10-6 or 6-10.

[YoloinOhio]

 

So, Grantland has a quickly-googled reputation for being one of the best sports sites. I dunno much about it. Is it?

it has its moments. But misses Bill Simmons IMO.

[Mike in Horseheads]

Game planning against the Bills will be a cinch. All a team has to do is pressure TT and keep a spy on him to keep him from running while locking down Watkins, Harvin and Wood, double covering Gray,making sure the second TE doesn't get open, load up the line of scrimmage so the Bills O-line can't bust open holes and focus on McCoy so he doesn't tear you up.

 

Easy peasy.

Promo... yup thats about it. :}

[mannc]

Barnwell is one of my favorite football writers but this article is lazy and disappointing. Aside from all the issues that have been highlighted by others here, he ignores by far the most significant upgrade from last year--the introduction of professional-level coaching on offense and at HC. It matters.

[Mike in Horseheads]

it has its moments. But misses Bill Simmons IMO.

I used to love Bills mailbag column!

[John from Riverside]

I think people are just referring to the usual new QB progression. Since Tyrod has never played in a game that matters, nobody has ever game planned for him. Just like a great minor league hitter gets called up and pitchers don't know his weaknesses yet, or a great minor league pitcher dominates until the second time around the league when hitters know his tendencies and whether he tips his pitches, etc.

I guess I do get that

 

But in the NFL the minor league would be college correct?

 

TT is in a very unique situation.....he is NOT coming straight out of college. This is a NFL veteran. A guy who has been through ....what.....4 training camps and preseasons?

 

Its a unique situation

[The Frankish Reich]

Game planning against the Bills will be a cinch. All a team has to do is pressure TT and keep a spy on him to keep him from running while locking down Watkins, Harvin and Wood, double covering Gray,making sure the second TE doesn't get open, load up the line of scrimmage so the Bills O-line can't bust open holes and focus on McCoy so he doesn't tear you up.

 

Easy peasy.

It is so obvious in retrospect. I have to wonder why it took the Bills 3 full preseason games to determine that Tyrod is actually better than Matt Cassel! Not only that, he's pretty much unstoppable when you pair him with a bad offensive line, a guy the Super Bowl champs dumped, a guy an offensive genius let go, and a TE who has averaged just a bit fewer yards per catch than Scott Chandler. Ahh, hope springs eternal ...

I guess I do get that

 

But in the NFL the minor league would be college correct?

 

TT is in a very unique situation.....he is NOT coming straight out of college. This is a NFL veteran. A guy who has been through ....what.....4 training camps and preseasons?

 

Its a unique situation

Well, no, it's not a unique situation. I'll be the first to admit that sometimes talent does remain hidden - Flacco's damn reliability never allowed Tyrod a chance. But the history of 4-year backups getting a starting job elsewhere isn't so great. I live in Denver. Brock Osweiler looked really good this preseason. Some Broncos fans actually say they should dump Peyton for Brock at the first sign of weakness in Manning. Should we be more confident in Tyrod's chance's than Brock's? Why? They both may be really good someday. Probably not.

[Dibs]

Great post Dibs.

 

I admittedly hated the trade and think that my reasons did have some merit. The draft was said to be loaded with receivers, we did not have anyone who even resembled a good quarterback, and we had major holes in the OL.

 

I do NOT hate the trade now, but it's a bit early for me to say that I like it. The 2015 first round pick might have really helped us. I guess we will never know. Also, if Sammy gets hurt bad, there goes 2 first round picks (and a 4th) down the drain.

 

Sammy does show potential to be great. If he wins us some games he will have been well worth the huge hit we took in order to obtain him. Time will tell.

Thanks Bill. In my mind the "we don't have a top QB" was/is by far the strongest argument against the trade. Sure, a star WR is always going to be helpful on any team but when you have a good QB throwing to a star WR....that's when it can become magical. I think the "plan" was perhaps too reliant upon the young QB(EJ) developing as hoped for into a good QB....which was a bit of a gamble. Hopefully we can achieve the desired result regardless through TT....and if not, hope EJs improvement isn't a mirage and continues.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Horrible analysis. Another guy who sat in his basement and wrote something without watching any camp or exhibition games....

 

Eh. I don't think he's that far off the national mainstream, which has been saying we have the worst QB situation in the league for months. The main thrust of his logic runs something like this:

1) These days, you can't win by running. What you need to win in the NFL is a very very good QB

2) The Bills don't have a very very good QB. They have bust EJ Manuel and dark-horse 4 year backup Tyrod Taylor who didn't have a good completion percentage in college

3) Therefore the Bills will not win, and in fact may wind up in the cellar

Additional points:

4) Rex Ryan went 4-12 with inadequate QB play last year, therefore he may go 4-12 this year

5) The Bills tried to improve the run game with McCoy, but he's already hurt and they didn't bring in flashy-dashy OL FA to match him

 

The counterpoints to the above are:

1) Two of the most successful modern-day teams, the Seasnakes and the '9ers, are actually run-heavy teams

2) The Bills traded for the best servicable vet on the market in Cassel, then signed the best dark-horse FA vet they could find. They set up a competition and picked the best man and the best #2

3) The OL may have improved enough with replacement of both guards and improvement the RT via camp competition - how's Iupati working out in 'Zona? There's also Felton and Mulligan to help out and blocking skill has become a "thing" for Bills TE.

 

Additional points:

4) If McCoy can't go, the Bills have 2 backup RB who should get the job done behind an adequate OL just based on last year's performance, and a promising rookie. They may not be flashy, but 222223.34 YPA moves the chains, Baby, and has the added benny of keeping the other guy's offense off the field. It's hard to score if you're sitting down

5) Greg Roman went pretty far with what (now) may look like less than adequate QB play

 

All I can say is that time will tell.

 

I don't follow his logic re: the Bills using 3 1st round picks and coming away with Sammy Watkins. Is he saying that EJ Manuel is a bust therefore the first round we used on him plus the 2 1sts we used on Sammy amount to using 3 picks on Sammy? That's kind of strange logic, the sequitor is that any time a team has a 1st round pick who isn't all that and a bag of chips, the next 1st round draftee effectively cost them 2 picks, which is just weird. Even top 1st round draft picks only become instant difference makers about 50% of the time and decent starters within a year or 2 an additional 20-30% (depends on your def. of decent starter)

[FireChan]

 

Eh. I don't think he's that far off the national mainstream, which has been saying we have the worst QB situation in the league for months. The main thrust of his logic runs something like this:

1) These days, you can't win by running. What you need to win in the NFL is a very very good QB

2) The Bills don't have a very very good QB. They have bust EJ Manuel and dark-horse 4 year backup Tyrod Taylor who didn't have a good completion percentage in college

3) Therefore the Bills will not win, and in fact may wind up in the cellar

Additional points:

4) Rex Ryan went 4-12 with inadequate QB play last year, therefore he may go 4-12 this year

5) The Bills tried to improve the run game with McCoy, but he's already hurt and they didn't bring in flashy-dashy OL FA to match him

 

The counterpoints to the above are:

1) Two of the most successful modern-day teams, the Seasnakes and the '9ers, are actually run-heavy teams

2) The Bills traded for the best servicable vet on the market in Cassel, then signed the best dark-horse FA vet they could find. They set up a competition and picked the best man and the best #2

3) The OL may have improved enough with replacement of both guards and improvement the RT via camp competition - how's Iupati working out in 'Zona? There's also Felton and Mulligan to help out and blocking skill has become a "thing" for Bills TE.

 

Additional points:

4) If McCoy can't go, the Bills have 2 backup RB who should get the job done behind an adequate OL just based on last year's performance, and a promising rookie. They may not be flashy, but 222223.34 YPA moves the chains, Baby, and has the added benny of keeping the other guy's offense off the field. It's hard to score if you're sitting down

5) Greg Roman went pretty far with what (now) may look like less than adequate QB play

 

All I can say is that time will tell.

 

I don't follow his logic re: the Bills using 3 1st round picks and coming away with Sammy Watkins. Is he saying that EJ Manuel is a bust therefore the first round we used on him plus the 2 1sts we used on Sammy amount to using 3 picks on Sammy? That's kind of strange logic, the sequitor is that any time a team has a 1st round pick who isn't all that and a bag of chips, the next 1st round draftee effectively cost them 2 picks, which is just weird. Even top 1st round draft picks only become instant difference makers about 50% of the time and decent starters within a year or 2 an additional 20-30% (depends on your def. of decent starter)

This was a weird part for me too. I took it as "all we really have to show for our last 3 first round picks is Sammy, because EJ is a backup/doesn't play." I think that's what he meant, but he worded it terribly.

Edited September 7, 2015 by FireChan

[Acantha]

 

 

I don't follow his logic re: the Bills using 3 1st round picks and coming away with Sammy Watkins. Is he saying that EJ Manuel is a bust therefore the first round we used on him plus the 2 1sts we used on Sammy amount to using 3 picks on Sammy? That's kind of strange logic, the sequitor is that any time a team has a 1st round pick who isn't all that and a bag of chips, the next 1st round draftee effectively cost them 2 picks, which is just weird. Even top 1st round draft picks only become instant difference makers about 50% of the time and decent starters within a year or 2 an additional 20-30% (depends on your def. of decent starter)

I didn't interpret his comment that way. I think it was more just a general statement on how the Bills have been using their 1st round picks. While I think based on what we saw from EJ in preseason it's too early to call him a total bust, I have never like the pick and as of right now, our last 3 picks have amounted to one starter and a backup QB who, IMO, isn't ready to step into the starting role yet.

[Lurker]

 

Eh. I don't think he's that far off the national mainstream, which has been saying we have the worst QB situation in the league for months.

Which again is akin to 'sitting in your basement' and going off of last year's media guide.

 

Anybody that watched the 'exhibition' games could see there was progress at the QB position this summer. Maybe it won't translate into the regular season, maybe it will. But to not even acknowledge it was lazy.

 

The national pundits simply write these stories without doing any work and hoe to a group think narrative. Why then should they even be given even passing creedance by fans?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Well, close -- the 2014 Chiefs had the 2nd best defense in football. They went 9-7. As I mentioned above, Rex's 2009 Jets had the best defense in football, and they finished 9-7. And the answer is: A. Alex Smith. B. Mark Sanchez.

 

So, basically, the difference for the Bills is whether Tyrod Taylor (and his backup) are better than Alex Smith (and his backup) or Mark Sanchez (and his backup)

[Kelly the Dog]

Barnwell is one of my favorite football writers but this article is lazy and disappointing. Aside from all the issues that have been highlighted by others here, he ignores by far the most significant upgrade from last year--the introduction of professional-level coaching on offense and at HC. It matters.

The biggest change this year, by far IMO, is the offensive staff, especially all important OC and very important OL. We went from very poor to very good. And that's not even wishful thinking as both Roman and Kromer have great reputations (as far as coaching goes).

 

It's an enormous difference from last year's team. Not even counting the players.

 

Oh, and we have better OL (Incognito and Miller over pitiful G plus healthy Glenn) better WR (same top four and added Percy Harvin) better RB (McCoy is one of the best in the league), better TE (Clay is one of best in the league), better FB (Felton is one of best in the league).

 

Kyle Orton was very average last year, which had a lot to do with coaching. We can get 2014 Orton out of 2015 EJ. Taylor is the wildcard obviously but we can get better QB play rather easily this year because of coaching and talent.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

It is a dunmb-arse article, no doubts....but he never said that. He said "Watkins cost the Bills 2 1st round picks"...which is true.

 

Exact quote from article: "the Bills have basically used their last three first-rounders to come away with Watkins and nothing more"

[DC Tom]

 

Exact quote from article: "the Bills have basically used their last three first-rounders to come away with Watkins and nothing more"

 

The stupid hurts! Make it stop!

[Acantha]

 

Exact quote from article: "the Bills have basically used their last three first-rounders to come away with Watkins and nothing more"

What that does not say is that the Bills spent 3 first round picks on Watkins.

[FireChan]

 

Exact quote from article: "the Bills have basically used their last three first-rounders to come away with Watkins and nothing more"

 

 

This was a weird part for me too. I took it as "all we really have to show for our last 3 first round picks is Sammy, because EJ is a backup/doesn't play." I think that's what he meant, but he worded it terribly.

[Dorkington]

We don't deserve respect until we earn it