Luxy312 Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 And you know that Taylor, an undersized running QB, will survive 16 starts in a row in the NFL? And the money spent on McCoy is irrelevant because, after all, they only traded an injured Kiko for him? And you know that Tyrod Taylor, he of zero NFL starts and zero meaningful NFL action, will be superior to the "mediocre" Kyle Orton? And you know that the defense necessarily got better, instead of very possibly regressing this year? And you know that Dan Carpenter will have a career season two years in a row? What I know right now is that in practice and the preseason, Taylor has looked better than Orton EVER looked. I know that McCoy is the best RB the Bills have had since Thurman Thomas. In terms of Carpenter, he's a kicker. Anyone basing their season predictions off a kicker is a flipping idiot. My biggest concern is the health of the secondary. That's a legitimate concern, but not what that idiot Barnwell was even focused on. That's exactly the point and you helped me make it.
plenzmd1 Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 What I know is that if ALL of that happens, they will do much better that 10-6. That's the dumb part of these articles - they are refusing to project the playoff turnover that happens everywhere else in the NFL on to the Bills and for essentially emotional reasons. But again, Barnwell is making the point that all of that happening would be an outlier of a season...not that it can't happen but statistically would be an anomaly if it does. I happen to believe it wil, cause I am 52 and have thought Bills will win Super Bowl every year since 1973... But just because he is rational does not make him an idiot.
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 What I know right now is that in practice and the preseason, Taylor has looked better than Orton EVER looked. I know that McCoy is the best RB the Bills have had since Thurman Thomas. In terms of Carpenter, he's a kicker. Anyone basing their season predictions off a kicker is a flipping idiot. My biggest concern is the health of the secondary. That's a legitimate concern, but not what that idiot Barnwell was even focused on. That's exactly the point and you helped me make it. I'll grant you the first and second points. I think health is a concern with both because of how Taylor plays, and because of McCoy's age/mileage. But Taylor has a legitmate chance to be a breakout player this year, and McCoy a legitimate chance to at least return to his pre-2014 form. The thing about the kicker is this: that's how analytics works. Carpenter obviously has been up and down with accuracy. If that weren't true he'd still be a Dolphin. So while there's a chance he ascended into the elite ranks of field goal kickers last season, it's more likely that 2014 was a fluke great season. So Barnwell is simply taking into account the fact that Carpenter's likely career season was key in a number of wins, and he's predicting what effect a return to the career average Dan Carpenter would have on the team's record this year. And unfortunately his preseason performance kind of supports Barnwell's thinking ...
Lurker Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 (edited) The takeaway I get from Barnwell's 'piece' is that if your team was bad in the past, it will be in the future. No one in the national media ever gets criticised for that kind of analysis, it just comes with the territory. I'm sure his top tier teams will all be the usual suspects as well... Edited September 7, 2015 by Lurker
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 The takeaway I get from Barnwell's 'piece' is that if your team was bad in the past, it will be in the future. No one in the national media ever gets criticised for that kind of analysis, it just comes with the territory. I'm sure his top tier teams will all be the usual suspects as well... I'm not sure what would make him foolish for predicting that the Pats/Seahawks/Packers/Broncos/Colts will be the best teams? Sometimes going against the grain is going against the facts.
plenzmd1 Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 The takeaway I get from Barnwell's 'piece' is that if your team was bad in the past, it will be in the future. No one in the national media ever gets criticised for that kind of analysis, it just comes with the territory. I'm sure his top tier teams will all be the usual suspects as well... Bet you they will have one thing in common... A proven top flight QB. The Bills do not. Agree easy assessment to make, but been pretty accurate last 10 years.
Lurker Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 I'm not sure what would make him foolish for predicting that the Pats/Seahawks/Packers/Broncos/Colts will be the best teams? Sometimes going against the grain is going against the facts. Agreed. Past performance is always a good predictor of future outcomes. Untill it isn't. That's why these 'stories' are such a farce...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 (edited) Agreed. Past performance is always a good predictor of future outcomes. Untill it isn't. That's why these 'stories' are such a farce... Correct. But there has to be some reason for predicting that past performance isn't the overwhelmingly best predictor. Something like "Peyton Manning was bad in the second half, likely hurt, and may have reached the end of his run" makes sense. Something like "Andrew Luck must just be lucky to have gone 33-15 to start his NFL career" isn't. Particularly when Luck took over a team that was 2-14 the previous season. Edited September 7, 2015 by The Frankish Reich
PromoTheRobot Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 (edited) Have no idea the point you are trying to make. Barnell is making the argument that as of right now, the Bils are starting a 6th round QB who was not great in college( and yes I see the majority of Tech games) , in a league that everyone knows is QB driven. Also in a league where turnover differential can be very fickle, and where it is proven much tougher to stay as a premier D than a premiere Offence. Barnwell is a stat and analytic guy..this is what the analytics will tell you. If Tyrod is the real deal, and more importantly Roman is the real deal , this will all change, and that is what he writes. But the analytics don't point to that right now. Jeez, you all carry this woe is me Buffalo chit to extremes ....same guys whining bout Barnwell here will whine bout the refs as reason Bills have not made playoffs in 15 years My point is that the Bills go 9-7, improve at almost every position, from owner on down, and the end result is people saying we still stink. Edited September 7, 2015 by PromoTheRobot
BADOLBILZ Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 @Grantland33: NFL 2015 Season Predictions, Part 1: The Cellar Dwellers, by @billbarnwell http://t.co/lzINEWRCNn In an age of advanced statistical analysis.......I'm always amazed that people accept these random W-L record predictions as content. But it gives a guy like Barnwell an easy piece to produce and it is a simple read. If the Bills play outstanding defense and good offense.......their ceiling.......which 6 games will they lose? He also completely neglected what is potentially a top special teams unit in the league. That is important because the reality is that the FLOOR of this team involves losing a lot of close games. Special teams is a factor, especially in close games....see the Mario strip sack...set up by ST's.....at the end of the Packers game last year. Prime example of how a team can prevent an elite QB from mounting a game deciding drive.....and totally neglected in the team analysis. I don't get bent over this stuff and people really need to take into account that these guys are just trying to do the near impossible job of tightly covering 32 teams when the majority of their audience is only interested in 6-10 large market or high profile teams..........but the Bills simply aren't going 4-12....even if EJ ends up playing and plays like EJ of 2014 instead of what we saw in 2015.
jester43 Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 (edited) True. My only complaint about the story, is that I don't see why we won't be better than the Jets. Edited September 7, 2015 by jester43
PromoTheRobot Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 (edited) Have no idea the point you are trying to make. Barnell is making the argument that as of right now, the Bils are starting a 6th round QB who was not great in college( and yes I see the majority of Tech games) , in a league that everyone knows is QB driven. Also in a league where turnover differential can be very fickle, and where it is proven much tougher to stay as a premier D than a premiere Offence. Barnwell is a stat and analytic guy..this is what the analytics will tell you. If Tyrod is the real deal, and more importantly Roman is the real deal , this will all change, and that is what he writes. But the analytics don't point to that right now. Jeez, you all carry this woe is me Buffalo chit to extremes ....same guys whining bout Barnwell here will whine bout the refs as reason Bills have not made playoffs in 15 years If there was any actual analysis in Barnwell's article, I'd agree. Most of it is just projections biased to the worst possible outcomes, likely based on the track record of a team that has undergone the most comprehensive retooling in it's history, from the owner on down. About the only thing "the same old.." about these Bills is the name...and a hangdog fanbase. But hey, I get it. It's easier to shoot low, right? Don't get suckered in by false hope. We suck and we know it. We know our place. Same old Bills. Edited September 7, 2015 by PromoTheRobot
Coach Tuesday Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 In an age of advanced statistical analysis.......I'm always amazed that people accept these random W-L record predictions as content. But it gives a guy like Barnwell an easy piece to produce and it is a simple read. If the Bills play outstanding defense and good offense.......their ceiling.......which 6 games will they lose? He also completely neglected what is potentially a top special teams unit in the league. That is important because the reality is that the FLOOR of this team involves losing a lot of close games. Special teams is a factor, especially in close games....see the Mario strip sack...set up by ST's.....at the end of the Packers game last year. Prime example of how a team can prevent an elite QB from mounting a game deciding drive.....and totally neglected in the team analysis. I don't get bent over this stuff and people really need to take into account that these guys are just trying to do the near impossible job of tightly covering 32 teams when the majority of their audience is only interested in 6-10 large market or high profile teams..........but the Bills simply aren't going 4-12....even if EJ ends up playing and plays like EJ of 2014 instead of what we saw in 2015. To be fair he didn't ignore ST - he thinks Carpenter kicked out of his head last year and will regress to his mean - and so far based upon the preseason, he's right.
Acantha Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 Personally, I don't really have any issue with anyone's final win/loss predictions. As others have said, it's all up in the air at this point. But I do disagree with his analysis of the positions on the team. The OL has gotten better. They upgraded at WR, TE, and RB. The defense is almost the same with a dip at safety or CB depending on how the lineup shakes out. Looking at the upgrades and basically saying, "eh..whatever, they'll lose" just isn't an article I will get behind. Break down the schedule and matchups...like has been done in this thread, and tell me why they don't stack up against their opponents, and while I may disagree, I can at least respect the opinion. I get that reporters are just getting these articles out and don't have/take the time to do in depth analysis of every teams roster and schedule, but just because that isn't the way things work, doesn't mean I'm going to pretend to like the products that are out there.
metzelaars_lives Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 Wow, the writing by this guy is embarrassingly bad. Examples.
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 (edited) In an age of advanced statistical analysis.......I'm always amazed that people accept these random W-L record predictions as content. But it gives a guy like Barnwell an easy piece to produce and it is a simple read. If the Bills play outstanding defense and good offense.......their ceiling.......which 6 games will they lose? He also completely neglected what is potentially a top special teams unit in the league. That is important because the reality is that the FLOOR of this team involves losing a lot of close games. Special teams is a factor, especially in close games....see the Mario strip sack...set up by ST's.....at the end of the Packers game last year. Prime example of how a team can prevent an elite QB from mounting a game deciding drive.....and totally neglected in the team analysis. I don't get bent over this stuff and people really need to take into account that these guys are just trying to do the near impossible job of tightly covering 32 teams when the majority of their audience is only interested in 6-10 large market or high profile teams..........but the Bills simply aren't going 4-12....even if EJ ends up playing and plays like EJ of 2014 instead of what we saw in 2015. I do agree with this. That's why the Bills don't belong in the "cellar dwellers" category. If Tyrod gets figured out fast and is really bad, he's not going to play after Game 4 or so, just like EJ sat down last year. Teams make adjustments. Bottom line: This is a middle of the pack team (no way a projected cellar dweller), but it's an interesting team -- a hell of a lot more interesting than, say, the Chiefs, another mediocre team but one that isn't taking chances. The taking chances gives them a real chance to make the playoffs and maybe even do some early round damage, but it also makes them a less sure bet than the Chiefs to go at least 8-8. I'll take the Bills approach. To be fair he didn't ignore ST - he thinks Carpenter kicked out of his head last year and will regress to his mean - and so far based upon the preseason, he's right. By the way, I think everyone is overreacting on Carpenter. He's had 2 -- not just 1 -- excellent seasons in a row. Will he likely be as excellent again in 2015? No. But will he likely regress all the way back to the version the Dolphins dumped, or even his career averages? Also no. Those 2 excellent seasons mean something -- they've re-set his performance baseline to a higher level. That's also sound analytics. Unless he's hurt (and he might be?), I think he'll be fine. Edited September 7, 2015 by The Frankish Reich
John from Riverside Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 I keep hearing the "figuring out fast" thing when people talk about Tyrod Taylor.....but nobody can give any indication of how that is going to happen. - Yes.....TT is a threat to run.....everyone knows this - No....TT is not a one dimensional running QB.......he has SHOWN this......you can see him go threw his progressions in the pocket and he has the calmest demeanor I have seen at QB in a while......even while he is moving around in the pocket. THis is not a QB that sees a different color jersey, takes his eyes from downfield, and starts running. You can see that he FEELS PRESSURE - He flicks his wrist and the ball is out with velocity.....seems much more accurate then given credit for as well - Then of course....when targets are covered he scampers for 1st downs with ease What is there to figure out? Keep in mind the bills are not gonna pass all day anyway.....we are going to tote the rock a ton
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 I keep hearing the "figuring out fast" thing when people talk about Tyrod Taylor.....but nobody can give any indication of how that is going to happen. - Yes.....TT is a threat to run.....everyone knows this - No....TT is not a one dimensional running QB.......he has SHOWN this......you can see him go threw his progressions in the pocket and he has the calmest demeanor I have seen at QB in a while......even while he is moving around in the pocket. THis is not a QB that sees a different color jersey, takes his eyes from downfield, and starts running. You can see that he FEELS PRESSURE - He flicks his wrist and the ball is out with velocity.....seems much more accurate then given credit for as well - Then of course....when targets are covered he scampers for 1st downs with ease What is there to figure out? Keep in mind the bills are not gonna pass all day anyway.....we are going to tote the rock a ton I think people are just referring to the usual new QB progression. Since Tyrod has never played in a game that matters, nobody has ever game planned for him. Just like a great minor league hitter gets called up and pitchers don't know his weaknesses yet, or a great minor league pitcher dominates until the second time around the league when hitters know his tendencies and whether he tips his pitches, etc.
Bill from NYC Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 Well, yes. It doesn't mean that they don't....but it certainly doesn't mean that they do. Why question something so obvious? And re: the maths... The trade cost the Bills one 1st round pick. The player cost the Bills two 1st round picks. Do you honestly think that people who word it that way (myself included) are somehow tŕying to say that the trade cost us two first round picks? Even though every Bills fan(and anyone else who was interestdd on draft day) knows exactly what the trade was? For the record, I liked the trade at the time of the draft....liked it all last year....and still like it now. Two picks IMO is well worth it for one of the premium prospects in the draft....particularly for a character like Watkins. Great post Dibs. I admittedly hated the trade and think that my reasons did have some merit. The draft was said to be loaded with receivers, we did not have anyone who even resembled a good quarterback, and we had major holes in the OL. I do NOT hate the trade now, but it's a bit early for me to say that I like it. The 2015 first round pick might have really helped us. I guess we will never know. Also, if Sammy gets hurt bad, there goes 2 first round picks (and a 4th) down the drain. Sammy does show potential to be great. If he wins us some games he will have been well worth the huge hit we took in order to obtain him. Time will tell.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 7, 2015 Posted September 7, 2015 @Grantland33: NFL 2015 Season Predictions, Part 1: The Cellar Dwellers, by @billbarnwell http://t.co/lzINEWRCNn So, Grantland has a quickly-googled reputation for being one of the best sports sites. I dunno much about it. Is it?
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