2015 Bills vs. Last Year at this time ???

[CSBill]

The Bills Defense is one of the best in the league. They have to stay near the top of the league for the team to succeed (and “success” for this team will be measured by one thing: the playoffs). For the offense, just by personnel changes alone, it should be better—it couldn’t go much lower. So the common wisdom is that if the offense gets to just average, this should be enough to move from mediocrity to being a playoff team.

 

What are the odds of this happening? I have put together a comparison of where the team was last year at this time and where they are now. The question being: Is there enough improvement (at least on paper) to make a serious playoff run? I think yes, and here’s why.

 

Comparison scale of 2015 versus 2014 team: + = improved/better now; ? = no difference, same place; and -- = seems to have gone backwards.

 

The Offense . . .

 

Offensive Line: 2015 vs. 2014 [ ++ ] Could the guard play get any worse? Incognito and Miller seem to be significant upgrades, Henderson should improve, and Glenn had an off year. Add to that, better coaching, and this unit has nowhere to go but up. The only concern is depth. Hopefully this can be addressed with a roster move this week.

 

Tight End: 2015 vs. 2014 [ + ] With the addition of Clay, and an offensive scheme that emphasizes TE play, there will be noticeable improvement in the contribution of this unit over the past few years.

 

Wide Receivers: 2015 vs. 2014 [ ? ] I would like to say yes, but with the preseason injuries and the capricious nature of Harvin, it is too early to really tell. It should be. Watkins, if he can stay healthy should see marked improvement. Harvin can be a game changer, and Woods is the model of consistency. And, our depth here is solid—that is certainly a good thing. So, time will tell.

 

Backfield: 2015 vs. 2014 [ + ] McCoy alone warrants this grade. If he does anything even average by his standards, it will be an improvement over Spiller. I hate the fact that Fred Jackson was released, but by pure football standards, it was an easy decision. Karlos Williams has shown promise. Dixon and Brown can contribute, both will need to be more consistent. But no matter what these three do, McCoy alone improves this group.

 

Quarterback: 2015 vs. 2014 [ +? ] This is a tough one. I vacillate from ? to a ++. If Tyrod does in the regular season what he did in the preseason that would be a huge upgrade. He has to prove himself as a passer. But the biggest thing he has to do is get the ball into the hands of his playmakers and not make big mistakes (kind of “Orton-ish”). If he does that, the fact that he can make plays using his feet, will in itself make this an upgrade. If he turns out to be the real-deal as a passer, then we have struck gold here.

 

Coaching: 2015 vs. 2014 [ ++ ] I cannot express enough how awful I think the offensive coaching has been the last two years. Anything would probably have been an upgrade, but with Roman, it’s like replacing a High School JV coach with a NCAA D1 coach. Of all the off-season moves, this may be the most significant. Enough said!

 

Conclusion: If Taylor is just average, the offense should be significantly better. I conservatively think it should be in the top half of the league, but I also think it has the potential—if all things come together—to be a top ten team.

 

The Defense . . .

 

D Line: 2015 vs. 2014 [ ? ] Remember, this is a comparison. This is still the top unit on the team, and it should pick up right where it left off. If there is room for improvement, it is with the rushing defense. Two year ago, this unit did give up a lot of yards on the ground. If it improves in that aspect again this year, it will truly be the best in the league.

 

Linebackers: 2015 vs. 2014 [ ? ] On this side of the ball, with the new scheme, I think this is an unknown. However, both Brown and Bradham had breakout seasons in 2014. If they adapt to the new system well, and continue to improve, I think both are All-Pro potential. For now, I’ll keep it level. With a hunch there will be noticeable improvement.

 

Defensive Backfield: 2015 vs. 2014 [ - ] You can take issue with me here, but with McKelvin out, Darby’s inexperience, and way more isolation, this unit could regress. As much as I want to believe Gilmore is great, he is still inconsistent at times. Williams and Graham are solid safeties, both are big hitters and both can cover well enough. Another concern here is depth, but that could probably be said about every team in the pass happy world of the NFL now. I hope I’m wrong, but I think this is the biggest question mark of the new defense.

 

Coaching: 2015 vs. 2014 [ ? ] I think it’s a wash. With the talent here, I think any of us could coach it and it would still be a top ten team. However, with this talent, Rex’s aggressiveness and complex scheming could blow the league up, or it could also blow up in his face if the secondary proves ineffective.

 

Conclusion: While it will be hard to improve statically, there is room to get better. I think it will be slightly better overall, mainly in the run defense.

 

Okay, fire away TBD clones. . . .

Edited September 6, 2015 by CSBill

[jaybee]

I got nuthin. Nice assessment there. I would comment that maybe the (defensive)coaching is + only because Rex has playoff experience, and our OC is likely much better this year too.

 

EDIT: Oops, scratch that last one, I just re-read it you've nailed it.

 

Good assessment though. Thanks.

Edited September 6, 2015 by jaybee

[Whites Bay]

I'd rate the wide receivers as better this year than last. Not a HUGE improvement, but an improvement nonetheless. Top three at the beginning of this year are Watkins, Woods, Harvin. Last year at this time it went Watkins (in only his rookie year), Woods and Mike Williams (who was sent packing midway through the season). I mean, we started last season with T.J. Graham on the squad. Again, not a gigantic upgrade, but definitely better than 2014.

[PlayoffsPlease]

With the benefit of hindsight we now know the 2014 Bills at this time were on the verge of a 9-7 season, their first winning season with two of those wins being complete spankings of the savior rex led jets.

At this time last year fans thought the Bills had one of the leagues best 1-2 RB combos in spiller/jackson.

At this time last year fans thought the Bills were facing a regression on defense after losing Pettine.

 

Its really likely that much of what we think this year will be as accurate as those two concerns from last year.

 

To me, I expect the defense to perform about as well as last year, there just isn't much room for improvement.

The biggest change on offense is roman vs hackett. That should be a big improvement. On the other hand Roman had Jim Harbaugh to work with on offense. Based on history Ryan isn't going to be an asset for Roman.

Dolphins look improved (and they have the highly vaunted coaching continuity advantage). The patriots are always a challenge. Its going to be interesting this year.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

WRT the QB's

 

EJ looked improved in "practices" and he performed very well in Pre Season games throwing for multiple TD's leading the team to score the most points, so that is a plus.

 

TT (like EJ) is performed well in Pre Season games leading the team to score points on the ground and not in the air. Yet he is still an unproven just like EJ.

 

so, I'd have to say you would have to score a ? over a++

 

 

 

Conclusion: If Taylor is just average,

put in EJ. Isn;t that what most said when speaking of Cassel? Average isn't good enough?

Edited September 6, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[Dorkington]

I think our offense is gonna be 5-10 spots better. And our defense 3-5 spots worse. Roman > Hackett, and I think Scwartz's schemes fit our players better than Rex's will. Overall, I feel we have a better team, though our record might be similar or the same, just because schedule may end up being more difficult, and injuries.

[CSBill]

WRT the QB's

 

EJ looked improved in "practices" and he performed very well in Pre Season games throwing for multiple TD's leading the team to score the most points, so that is a plus.

 

TT (like EJ) is performed well in Pre Season games leading the team to score points on the ground and not in the air. Yet he is still an unproven just like EJ.

 

so, I'd have to say you would have to score a ? over a++

 

 

put in EJ. Isn;t that what most said when speaking of Cassel? Average isn't good enough?

 

In context, him being average and everything else improving. But I certainly see your point. It is really the biggest unknown in the entire equation.

[BobChalmers]

I think our offense is gonna be 5-10 spots better. And our defense 3-5 spots worse. Roman > Hackett, and I think Scwartz's schemes fit our players better than Rex's will. Overall, I feel we have a better team, though our record might be similar or the same, just because schedule may end up being more difficult, and injuries.

 

I agree about the defense - I think Rex might have a blind spot on expectations for the CBs and a lack of appreciation for how right a fit Schwartz's scheme was. Why the heck would you blitz when your front four can lead the league in sacks w/o blitzing? Missing Leodis is going to exacerbate the issue.

 

My prediction is they will give up big plays but also make a lot of big plays, allowing more yards, maybe more points, but getting even more sacks and INTs which will be a wash for the team but lower them in the standard stats rankings - sort of back to where Pettine had them or just a hair better.

 

However, I really think the offense will be more than 10 spots better. The OL is MUCH better, both from replacing the awful guards with two talented ones, and even more by the massive coaching upgrade.

 

Add to that Clay, Felton, McCoy, and even if TT just holds his own this is at least an average (13 spot improvement) offense. I say T-Mobile goes all RG3 rookie season and they jump to 11 on offense!

[atlbillsfan1975]

 

I agree about the defense - I think Rex might have a blind spot on expectations for the CBs and a lack of appreciation for how right a fit Schwartz's scheme was. Why the heck would you blitz when your front four can lead the league in sacks w/o blitzing? Missing Leodis is going to exacerbate the issue.

 

My prediction is they will give up big plays but also make a lot of big plays, allowing more yards, maybe more points, but getting even more sacks and INTs which will be a wash for the team but lower them in the standard stats rankings - sort of back to where Pettine had them or just a hair better.

 

However, I really think the offense will be more than 10 spots better. The OL is MUCH better, both from replacing the awful guards with two talented ones, and even more by the massive coaching upgrade.

 

Add to that Clay, Felton, McCoy, and even if TT just holds his own this is at least an average (13 spot improvement) offense. I say T-Mobile goes all RG3 rookie season and they jump to 11 on offense!

Nice thought about Taylor having a RG3 rookie type season. If true Bills are on a path for the SB. I really think Roman and Rex are wanting their QB to help them win games by making a few key plays with their legs or arm. This is something Orton could not do last year.

In regards to the OP, the DB talent might less slightly until Leo gets back but I think Rex is better at disguising that than Schwartz is.

[26CornerBlitz]

@SalSports

Here's my Bills roster and cuts analysis of the offense, by position: http://www.wgr550.com/Bills-roster-analysis-Offense/21936717

 

 

@SalSports

Here's my Bills roster analysis of the DEFENSE (with positional depth charts) now that cuts have been made: http://www.wgr550.com/Bills-roster-analysis-Defense/21936752

[billsfan1959]

Good assessment 0P. I think the skill positions on offense are all better in terms of talent level. I think the greatest improvement on offense will be (1) The offensive line, due to positional coaching, additional experience, and influx of new talent - which, in turn will bring about greater improvement in the production at all the skill positions; and (2) Greg Roman's abilities as an OC.

[Kelly the Dog]

I'm usually an optimist but there appears to be an enormous upgrade in offensive coaching, scheme and OL coaching and scheme. Add Shady, Clay, Harvin, Felton, Incognito and Miller, a healthy Glenn and the second year of Henderson, not to mention Taylor's running, and this offense should be way, way better.

 

The defense I think will be the same. Leodis will hurt. Depends a lot on Darby the first month of the season.

[Best Player Available]

Interesting read. i say play 8 games then see what this team is. myself Rex Ryan has made a pretty good living on unfulfilled promises. he is a huge question mark. That said I like him better than anyone since Wade. he has potential, he needs to put up the W's.

 

the o-line is very thin and unproven yes better guards on paper. need to see incognito play fair and square. His reputation as a dirty player is more than a rumor. No drive killing penalties.

Good/ great receiving corp even though harvin is a rental. Love Woods.

The Corners, could be scary early on.anymore Injury's and immediate trouble

carpenter on thin ice IMO.

QB's ??????

[bigK14094]

Good thoughtful writeup. I am somewhat more concerned about the D, though. With the 4th ranked D last year, not much upside and likely will not live up to last years performance...maybe top 10, but likely not 4th. My main concern (outside of the D back issue well discussed previously) is that Ryan's scheme is Pettine's scheme. And, we were terrible against the run with Pettine's scheme...got burned with the big one way to many times.....even with the vaunted J Byrd in at safety..in fact, particularily with J byrd in there. Maybe Graham and Williams will be better at stoping the long run...we will see. Overall, I am not drinking the kool-aid on the "Rex is a genius D guy" Lets see how it works.....lots of studs....

[Kelly the Dog]

Good thoughtful writeup. I am somewhat more concerned about the D, though. With the 4th ranked D last year, not much upside and likely will not live up to last years performance...maybe top 10, but likely not 4th. My main concern (outside of the D back issue well discussed previously) is that Ryan's scheme is Pettine's scheme. And, we were terrible against the run with Pettine's scheme...got burned with the big one way to many times.....even with the vaunted J Byrd in at safety..in fact, particularily with J byrd in there. Maybe Graham and Williams will be better at stoping the long run...we will see. Overall, I am not drinking the kool-aid on the "Rex is a genius D guy" Lets see how it works.....lots of studs....

Pettine's is different than Ryan's. Rex almost always has a very good run defense and the Browns were horrible last year against the run like the Bills were under Pettine.

[FLbills]

WRT the QB's

 

EJ looked improved in "practices" and he performed very well in Pre Season games throwing for multiple TD's leading the team to score the most points, so that is a plus.

 

TT (like EJ) is performed well in Pre Season games leading the team to score points on the ground and not in the air. Yet he is still an unproven just like EJ.

 

so, I'd have to say you would have to score a ? over a++

 

 

put in EJ. Isn;t that what most said when speaking of Cassel? Average isn't good enough?

If this is about comparing last year at this time to this year at this time, the QB position has improved by leaps and bounds, IMO

[frogger]

My fear for our defense is that Rex is going to create an exotic blitzing scheme, when sometimes being conservative is best.

Will we make it to 50 sacks for the third straight year...very likely

Are we going to give up big plays, while trying to make big plays...very likely

[CSBill]

My fear for our defense is that Rex is going to create an exotic blitzing scheme, when sometimes being conservative is best.

Will we make it to 50 sacks for the third straight year...very likely

Are we going to give up big plays, while trying to make big plays...very likely

 

My concern as well.

[eball]

It surprises me that some think Rex's coaching will take the defense backwards a notch. I think Schwartz did a very nice job last season but there's no other defensive mind in the league I'd take over Rex.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

If this is about comparing last year at this time to this year at this time, the QB position has improved by leaps and bounds, IMO

There is. but an A++ is a bit overrated imo.

 

Honestly - My post was directed to the "realists" that have little faith in EJ and every faith in TT.