Why EJ Manuel should start in Week 1

[GunnerBill]

 

This idea that EJ should have been a mid-round pick is just revisionist history. He was the first QB drafted. At the time, there were other teams that had EJ as the number one QB on their board as well. Mike Mayock before the draft said he would take EJ Manuel because he had the highest upside. Was he drafted higher than he should have been in retrospect? That's an easy answer. But please stop reposting this fake idea that EJ was a third round or 4th round pick that the anti-EJ people just keep repeating. There is no basis to it.

 

The Bills had good scouts at the time and they had on their NFL draft board EJ Manuel as the top quarterback. Unless you have 5 teams draft board that had EJ as a 4th rounder then this "fact" should stop.

 

This is a very good post. I was on record before that draft as saying if I was the Bills and I had backed myself into a corner where I had to take a QB in 2013 I'd pick EJ Manuel. I still given a chance to go back and draft a Quarterback from that class again would take EJ, though I think you can make a case for Glennon who so far has had the better production from that class. I don't personally see any argument or Geno but some seem to so there you go.

 

That class was a jumbled mess in the run up to the draft and remains so. Some teams had EJ as a 3rd or 4th rounder, some had him as the best QB in that class. My opinion is there is no way he would have been there for the Bills in the 3rd round.. there was enough noise at the time that as well as the Bills at least the Jags (who let's not forget took a similar style of prospect a year later in Bortles) and the Eagles both had him high on their boards.

 

Some teams that year had Geno at the top of their board, some had EJ, some had Matt Barkley... and there was no consensus about the order beneath them either. It was a poor class that was a jumbled mess then and still is - the people who attempt to present the Bills as the only team that liked EJ are a little off base. They were probably the most desperate for a Quarterback at that point hence they were the only ones who pulled the trigger in round 1 - I think most teams were not going to take any QB that year until the second round.

[Last Guy on the Bench]

I don't have a huge problem with Simon's post, but I guess my one question is why he is so certain that Tyrod Taylor "will never be that guy." Taylor simply wasn't going to unseat Flacco in Baltimore, so he really hasn't had a chance. I don't know what body of work in the NFL we can look to, to make the determination that he absolutely couldn't be the Bills' QB for the next 5-6 years.

 

I'd love it if the Bills went with a Taylor-backed-up-by-EJ lineup to start the season.

I agree. Taylor doesn't have the prototypical size and cannon, but it seems like he has enough tools to succeed at a high level, IF he has the other qualities that a Drew Brees or Russell Wilson has. And that we just don't know either way.

 

I have been slow to judge EJ too harshly, but I definitely think the Bills should start Taylor.

 

Maybe it's the hangover from watching that Three for the Show vid on TT, or maybe it is indeed shiny new toy syndrome, but TT has a presence that I don't think EJ has. EJ is a great guy with lots of charisma, but I get the feeling sometimes that he is trying too hard to be "the guy" or "the leader" - he has an image in his head that isn't totally natural to him. And it shows in the pocket. He never really looks comfortable to me (even though he does seem a bit more at ease at the end of the game). I don't think TT is trying to be something. I think he just is "the guy" and I think teammates feel it. Also, he looks super comfortable in games to me - relaxed, like things are moving more slowly and clearly for him than everyone else.

 

I've been deluded before, but I am way in Taylor's corner right now, though I will cheer like crazy for whomever they select as the starter.

[Bangarang]

Are people still defending a QB who is running the scout team in his 3rd year?

 

Let's just sit EJ for his entire rookie contract, give him an extension and see if he can win a competition against a couple of backups in his 7th year. After all, the kid was a project.

 

 

 

This idea that EJ should have been a mid-round pick is just revisionist history. He was the first QB drafted. At the time, there were other teams that had EJ as the number one QB on their board as well. Mike Mayock before the draft said he would take EJ Manuel because he had the highest upside. Was he drafted higher than he should have been in retrospect? That's an easy answer. But please stop reposting this fake idea that EJ was a third round or 4th round pick that the anti-EJ people just keep repeating. There is no basis to it.

 

The Bills had good scouts at the time and they had on their NFL draft board EJ Manuel as the top quarterback. Unless you have 5 teams draft board that had EJ as a 4th rounder then this "fact" should stop.

The Cowboys had him as a 4th round prospect.

 

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/5/30/4378574/dallas-cowboys-2013-draft-board-leaked-almost-complete-7-round-board

Edited August 27, 2015 by Bangarang

[ALF]

It might be worth the risk to play EJ one half and Taylor the other until one clearly develops into a full time starter.

 

It would mean not making the playoffs this season, but a investment in the future.

 

Drafting a QB in 2016 would take even longer to develop with no guarantee either.

[sjjr]

This roster is good enough to win games with any of the three QBs in reality. Looking at the Colts game in particular, the Bills should be able to run the ball and play D to win. Don't need great QB play.

 

With that said, I'd love to see EJ work out and be the guy someday but today he is not. Should be Tyrod Taylor based on what he's done at camp and in preseason....and especially if the coaching staff and team believes he can get it done.

[Simon]

I don't have a huge problem with Simon's post, but I guess my one question is why he is so certain that Tyrod Taylor "will never be that guy." Taylor simply wasn't going to unseat Flacco in Baltimore, so he really hasn't had a chance. I don't know what body of work in the NFL we can look to, to make the determination that he absolutely couldn't be the Bills' QB for the next 5-6 years.

 

I just don't think he has the natural skillset to be that guy you can trot out there for the next 5-10 years. I haven't seen him as much as I'd like yet, but I don't see that real live arm you want in a guy who can make throws to every part of the field. His greatest asset is his quicks, but as he gets older and takes a couple years of NFL pounding, that's going to become less of an advantage over time. Not to mention that when defenses starting playing a contain game against him and force him to work from the pocket, that's going to create a myriad of issues for him. I also worry about his stature as I don't know if he as the frame to take a lot of hits and still remain healthy.

Seems like a great kid and a hard worker and I'd love to see the Bills create some packages for him where he gets 1 - 4 possessions a game, depending on the opponent. But relying on him to work from the pocket for 16 games a year might be asking a bit too much.

 

 

. It is looking to me like Rex has been intentionally putting EJ in the most difficult position.

 

This kind of thinking has also been creeping into the back of my head for a while. But I am also being resistant to it as wishful thinking

[eball]

I just don't think he has the natural skillset to be that guy you can trot out there for the next 5-10 years. I haven't seen him as much as I'd like yet, but I don't see that real live arm you want in a guy who can make throws to every part of the field. His greatest asset is his quicks, but as he gets older and takes a couple years of NFL pounding, that's going to become less of an advantage over time. Not to mention that when defenses starting playing a contain game against him and force him to work from the pocket, that's going to create a myriad of issues for him. I also worry about his stature as I don't know if he as the frame to take a lot of hits and still remain healthy.

Seems like a great kid and a hard worker and I'd love to see the Bills create some packages for him where he gets 1 - 4 possessions a game, depending on the opponent. But relying on him to work from the pocket for 16 games a year might be asking a bit too much.

 

I hear you, but Corey Graham raved about his arm and it appears to be as strong as needed -- certainly stronger than Cassel's and nearly on par with EJ. He also seems to avoid taking those big shots that have destroyed a guy like Bob Griffin.

 

My biggest concern with Taylor is your point about defenses specifically game-planning to contain the run. We won't know the answer to whether he can make those throws and work the middle of the field until he actually gets a chance to do it.

 

Anyway, I agree that the Bills should not just be focusing on making the playoffs this year, but on establishing a consistent presence in the postseason and making legitimate championship runs year after year.

[Wayne Cubed]

Just watch both of them stand in the pocket and throw the 20yrd out from the opposite hash and it won't take long at all to see the difference

 

I don't get why people have to put down Tyrod to prop up EJ. Here is Tyrod throwing a 20 yard out on a rope. Climbs the pocket and throws the ball before the receiver breaks. It was a perfect throw.

 

 

And obviously he can make that throw in game settings, so I'm not really sure what your point is.

[dave mcbride]

http://bills.buffalonews.com/2015/08/27/bills-look-to-turn-risks-into-rewards/

 

Tyler Dunne's take today:

 

"8. EJ Manuel can’t be trusted. Don’t be fooled by his preseason numbers (13 of 22 for 188 yards, two touchdowns). Manuel’s practice tape is littered with one incomplete pass into the hospitality tent, one that drilled a cameraman on the sideline and several fumbled snaps. Every 45-yard strike in stride is followed by two or three or four head-scratching throws, which is why Taylor and Cassel have been the quarterbacks getting virtually all of the No. 1 reps. Buffalo took a chance on Manuel at No. 16 overall two years ago. Maybe it was the perfect storm for all the wrong reasons – Kaepernick had just torched Green Bay for 444 total yards and four touchdowns, Robert Griffin III was the rookie of the year, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson were ripping through defenses by air and ground. Manuel seemed like a read-option threat and the Bills were dead-set on taking a quarterback. They simply took one in a horrendous draft class for the position."

 

Whatever we think, he's not going to start.

[LB3]

 

I don't get why people have to put down Tyrod to prop up EJ. Here is Tyrod throwing a 20 yard out on a rope. Climbs the pocket and throws the ball before the receiver breaks. It was a perfect throw.

 

 

And obviously he can make that throw in game settings, so I'm not really sure what your point is.

I like Tyrod too. Simon did say from the opposite hash though. What you posted was a good throw though.

[dave mcbride]

Is it so bad to hold off on starting until his 4th season? That's what the packers did with Rodgers (not comparing the two players). Taylor sat for 4 years too.

[MDH]

 

I don't get why people have to put down Tyrod to prop up EJ. Here is Tyrod throwing a 20 yard out on a rope. Climbs the pocket and throws the ball before the receiver breaks. It was a perfect throw.

 

 

And obviously he can make that throw in game settings, so I'm not really sure what your point is.

 

He didn't say he couldn't make the throw he said compare them and see the difference. That's not even an opposite hash throw and it's still not exactly a rope. TT has an advantage over Manuel in a few places, arm strength isn't one of them.

 

Not sure how stating that is "putting down TT." That's like saying that stating TT is a better runner than EJ is putting down EJ. It's just a fact.

[disco]

 

People are kidding themselves if they think TT is going to step in and give them a consistent product. He's going to struggle too. It's what inexperienced QBs do (unless your name is Aaron Rogers.) The only one who will be consistent is Cassel. Consistently mediocre.

 

I tend to agree but recently there are more examples than just Rodgers that have done well out of the gate. I think the 4 years on the bench shouldn't be overlooked. Guys with immediate impact:

 

Colin Kaepernick - 1 year on bench, 17-6 over first 2 years starting (5-2, 12-4)

Russell Wilson - 0 years on bench, 24-8 over first 2 years starting (11-5, 13-3)

Joe Flacco, 0 years, 20-12 (11-5, 9-7)

Andy Dalton - 0 years, 19-13 (9-7, 10-6)

Tony Romo - 2 years, 19-7 (6-4, 13-3)

Andrew Luck - 0 years, 22-10 first 2 years (11-5, 11-5)

 

I'm sure there are others. I don't see why TT couldn't do as well as Kaepernick and Wilson. Quite a few similarities between their play type and strength of team defense. I'd argue this team has more offensive play makers as well.

 

I know there are more examples of guys that struggle early, I'm just saying it's not crazy to suggest Tyrod goes 10-6 or 11-5. My bigger concern is actually injury.

[BackInDaDay]

"Every 45-yard strike in stride is followed by two or three or four head-scratching throws, which is why Taylor and Cassel have been the quarterbacks getting virtually all of the No. 1 reps." ~ Tyler Dunne

An honest, and obvious, observation that any fan could have made - followed by a declaration that's part logic, and part assumption.

What Mr Dunne has not included are the opinions of the offensive coaches - particularly, any progress they've seen in EJ's ability to recognize what the defense is doing before and immediately after the ball is snapped. the reason why the position is such a difficult one to gain consistency in, is that the success or failure of each play begins in the huddle and los - long before it's execution.

 

For that matter, how have any of the leading candidates been doing? yeah, we can all see the results of the QB's decisions and his ability to execute - but who's putting the offence in a position to succeed each play, and who do they think is getting closer to that ideal each practice and game situation?

Edited August 27, 2015 by BackInDaDay

[Wayne Cubed]

 

He didn't say he couldn't make the throw he said compare them and see the difference. That's not even an opposite hash throw and it's still not exactly a rope. TT has an advantage over Manuel in a few places, arm strength isn't one of them.

 

Not sure how stating that is "putting down TT." That's like saying that stating TT is a better runner than EJ is putting down EJ. It's just a fact.

 

I know it's not opposite hash, I'm well aware, thanks. It's an out route in a game setting and it's a perfect throw on a rope, we will have to disagree there. It's putting down TT because it's saying he can't make that throw as good as Manuel to build up a case for Manuel starting. That's putting another player down, to me. To my eyes, TT makes that throw just fine and has more than adequate arm strength. I've seen him throw it quite a few times.

 

The funny thing is I bet if we watched these 2 Qb's throw this opposite hash out 20 times Manuel isn't consistent enough to get it there as many times as TT. And that's the problem with Manuel, consistency and what everyone points to.

[BUFFALOTONE]

Are people still defending a QB who is running the scout team in his 3rd year?

 

Let's just sit EJ for his entire rookie contract, give him an extension and see if he can win a competition against a couple of backups in his 7th year. After all, the kid was a project.

 

 

The Cowboys had him as a 4th round prospect.

 

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/5/30/4378574/dallas-cowboys-2013-draft-board-leaked-almost-complete-7-round-board

That's a wise franchise...

[hondo in seattle]

The one problem with all this Simon

 

This defense is biult to win RIGHT NOW......not in 5 years. We dont know what we are going to have on D in 5 years

 

We do know that we have a top 3 D right now.

 

And yes....I think TT can throw that out

 

I actually like EJ but I'm with John from Hemet. We have a Super Bowl caliber defense right now. So right now I want the QB who gives us the best possibility to win.

 

Starting EJ because maybe, possibly, someday 5 years from now he might be a great starting QB isn't a great idea to me.

 

If the Bills had a crap team anyway, then I'd say start EJ (or TT) instead of MC and let's see what skills he develops with game day experience.

 

But we don't have a crap team this year. And I don't know what kind of team we'll have around EJ 3, 4, 5 years from now if we let him start and actually becomes good.

 

After 15 years of missing the post season, we have a chance this year and we need to go all out.

Edited August 27, 2015 by hondo in seattle

[Solomon Grundy]

Are people still defending a QB who is running the scout team in his 3rd year?

 

Let's just sit EJ for his entire rookie contract, give him an extension and see if he can win a competition against a couple of backups in his 7th year. After all, the kid was a project.

 

 

The Cowboys had him as a 4th round prospect.

 

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/5/30/4378574/dallas-cowboys-2013-draft-board-leaked-almost-complete-7-round-board

Okay, they had Leveon Bell as a 3rd and Kiko in the same rd as EJ. Dee Milliner in the 1st. Guess their scouting dept hit a HR!!

[dave mcbride]

 

I tend to agree but recently there are more examples than just Rodgers that have done well out of the gate. I think the 4 years on the bench shouldn't be overlooked. Guys with immediate impact:

 

Colin Kaepernick - 1 year on bench, 17-6 over first 2 years starting (5-2, 12-4)

Russell Wilson - 0 years on bench, 24-8 over first 2 years starting (11-5, 13-3)

Joe Flacco, 0 years, 20-12 (11-5, 9-7)

Andy Dalton - 0 years, 19-13 (9-7, 10-6)

Tony Romo - 2 years, 19-7 (6-4, 13-3)

Andrew Luck - 0 years, 22-10 first 2 years (11-5, 11-5)

 

I'm sure there are others. I don't see why TT couldn't do as well as Kaepernick and Wilson. Quite a few similarities between their play type and strength of team defense. I'd argue this team has more offensive play makers as well.

 

I know there are more examples of guys that struggle early, I'm just saying it's not crazy to suggest Tyrod goes 10-6 or 11-5. My bigger concern is actually injury.

I know I'm beating a dead horse here, but QB records are even more meaningless than MLB won-loss records for pitchers. The reason why Dalton's record was what it was in his first two seasons was because the Bengals had a top tier defense in almost every major category.

[MDH]

 

I tend to agree but recently there are more examples than just Rodgers that have done well out of the gate. I think the 4 years on the bench shouldn't be overlooked. Guys with immediate impact:

 

Colin Kaepernick - 1 year on bench, 17-6 over first 2 years starting (5-2, 12-4)

Russell Wilson - 0 years on bench, 24-8 over first 2 years starting (11-5, 13-3)

Joe Flacco, 0 years, 20-12 (11-5, 9-7)

Andy Dalton - 0 years, 19-13 (9-7, 10-6)

Tony Romo - 2 years, 19-7 (6-4, 13-3)

Andrew Luck - 0 years, 22-10 first 2 years (11-5, 11-5)

 

I'm sure there are others. I don't see why TT couldn't do as well as Kaepernick and Wilson. Quite a few similarities between their play type and strength of team defense. I'd argue this team has more offensive play makers as well.

 

I know there are more examples of guys that struggle early, I'm just saying it's not crazy to suggest Tyrod goes 10-6 or 11-5. My bigger concern is actually injury.

 

You're posting won-loss records, I'm talking about consistent play from the QB position. Is anybody going to say Dalton, Romo, Flacco and Kaep have been consistent? Those guys are the poster children of inconsistency for young QBs. It doesn't mean you can't win with them as they learn, it just means you have to be patient and accept their lows and hope it gets better (which for Flacco and Romo it did.)

 

I'd even go so far as to say Luck was pretty inconsistent his first two years. Granted, he turns it on at the right times and when he's good, he's amazing, but he also forces the ball and makes some head scratching decisions - which is to be expected from a young QB, even one as talented as Luck.