Fake-Fat Sunny Posted February 12, 2005 Posted February 12, 2005 Folks can debate either way about JJ's value as a player, but the other part of reality is regardless of how you feel about his supply of talent, the other part of setting his value is the demand for LTs in the marketplace. I think a team-by-team analysis is revealing. The following is the difficult tale for Jennings and the powerful position the Bills are in as far as negotiations and is a big part of why TD gave him a lowball offer. Potential market for offering a contract for Jennings too rich for the Bill's blood is the 31 other teams in the NFL, but: The Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Redskins , New Orleans Saints, Houston Texans Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, NY Giants, Oakland Raiders. Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs,Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins , and the Tennessee Titans all have $5 million or less in cap room in the descending order above (or particular note is JJs first choice to go home to AT, but given their substantial negative number in cap room they will have to cut current players to merely make the cap rather than make an offer to JJ). Lack of cap room reduces the potential JJ market to 14 teams. Of these remaining teams: Minnesota Vikings are committed to McKinnie are not in the market for an LT Seattle Seahawks has substantial cap room but has significant plyers and positions to resign such as RB Shaun Alexander, QB Matt Hasselbeck and LT Walter Jones. There is some talk of the franchising Jones which take them out of the market or even if they do not the Bills may be able to outbid Seattle with a lowball bid. Jacksonville Jaguars- The Jags have substantial cap room and actually may be uin the market for an LT. Ephraim Salaam started all 16 games there this year and was adequate at best. However, their prior starter was Mike Pearson who sat out last year with a WM severity knee injury to three ligaments. He says he is ready to go and will compete for the LT job. Jax fans are actually talking about Jones but in theory under the right circumstances could afford to and might bid for JJ though this would take some particular circumstances. Not likely but certainly a possibility. San Diego Chargers- Plenty of cap room but prescence of well regarded Roman Oben as a starter who they just acquired last year in a trade takes them out of the market. In addition their substantial cap room likely to be reduced by franchising Brees San Francisco 49ers- They are probably the best bet to go after a player like JJ, though they have the cap room to go after one of the better LTs if available. They currently have Kosler who is a versatile youngster at LT, but he is not a stud starter and his versatility allows them to purchase a stud starter and move him. The 9er ownership has been pretty bad and befuddled recently and unwilling to invest in the team but perhaps this will interest them in getting a second tier LT like JJ they can market. Baltimore Ravens They have Jonathan Ogden and are not in the LT market Philadelphia Eagles There is some lack of clarity whether LT Tra Thomas will be available or not. He has a contract through 2008 on NFLPA,com but is on an idependent web site as a UFA and the media has talked about him being a candidate for the franchise tag (which they gave to Corey Simon). For the moment put them down as not in the market. Dallas Cowboys- The prescence of Pro Bowl LY Flozell Adams takes them out of the market Chicago Bears - Another candidate for the JJ sweepstakes as they have some cap room and have Colombo who was well regarded when drafted but missed the 2003 season due to injury. He played at least a few games at LT last year but this team may be interested. NY Jets- Prescence of Jason Fabini takes NYJ out ofthe market for an LT Indianapolis Colts Prescence of Tarik Glenn takes the Colts out of the LT market Cleveland Browns - Prescence of Ross Verba at LT makes it unlikely this team would go for JJ, but then who knows what will happen at this management and injury disaster area. Detroit Lions- Former first round choice has started roughly 60 straight games at LT for the Lions who also will have to pay or look for a replacement for RT Stocker McDouhle taking them out of the market for an LT. St. Louis Rams- Have franchised Orlando Pace taking themselves out of the LT market Arizona Cardinals- Have big contract in LT Leonard Davis taking them out of the LT market What do you know? This reduces the potential JJ market to three teams Jax, Chicago and the Niners. Of these three, Chicago and the Niners did so badly last year that they likely will want to use their biggest cap dollars for a player to market and excite the fan base though clearly if you want to win starting with the trenches is a good thing to do. However, these teams have enough needs that they have multiple OL or DL places they can improve if they want to spend the cap dollars this way. While possibilities neither is a stone cold lock. Likewise with Jax that has plenty of cap room and no player firm for the job. Yet in ternally Pearson is a real candidate and they have the money to spend to get the best available if Seattle tags Hasselbeck or Alexander leaving Jones as a potential target I suspect may interest them more than JJ if they decide to go outside. Overall, I think the deal is here that TD did a great job for our cap by low-balling JJ as there probably will not be a bidding war for JJ that forces us to do much better than a low-ball offer ($5 million would be quite generous and something at the $3 million level would be brutal but may be the best offer JJ gets. Folks have posted that JJ will get many offers at inflated LT levels (Clifton and Petitgout both got $5 million bucks annually and neither impresses me) but this is a buyers market rather than a sellers market and the Bills have lots of leverage here (including worse comes to worse several internal team options and there simply isn't much of an obvious market for JJ here even if you assume he is among the best LTs available..
njsue Posted February 12, 2005 Posted February 12, 2005 Let this guy go he is constantly getting injured.
obie_wan Posted February 12, 2005 Posted February 12, 2005 Let this guy go he is constantly getting injured. 236613[/snapback] good idea They can move Lawrence Smith over to play LT- He's really good Jennings is the best option at LT -
obie_wan Posted February 12, 2005 Posted February 12, 2005 Folks can debate either way about JJ's value as a player, but the other part of reality is regardless of how you feel about his supply of talent, the other part of setting his value is the demand for LTs in the marketplace. I think a team-by-team analysis is revealing. The following is the difficult tale for Jennings and the powerful position the Bills are in as far as negotiations and is a big part of why TD gave him a lowball offer. Potential market for offering a contract for Jennings too rich for the Bill's blood is the 31 other teams in the NFL, but: The Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Redskins , New Orleans Saints, Houston Texans Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, NY Giants, Oakland Raiders. Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs,Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins , and the Tennessee Titans all have $5 million or less in cap room in the descending order above (or particular note is JJs first choice to go home to AT, but given their substantial negative number in cap room they will have to cut current players to merely make the cap rather than make an offer to JJ). Lack of cap room reduces the potential JJ market to 14 teams. Of these remaining teams: Minnesota Vikings are committed to McKinnie are not in the market for an LT Seattle Seahawks has substantial cap room but has significant plyers and positions to resign such as RB Shaun Alexander, QB Matt Hasselbeck and LT Walter Jones. There is some talk of the franchising Jones which take them out of the market or even if they do not the Bills may be able to outbid Seattle with a lowball bid. Jacksonville Jaguars- The Jags have substantial cap room and actually may be uin the market for an LT. Ephraim Salaam started all 16 games there this year and was adequate at best. However, their prior starter was Mike Pearson who sat out last year with a WM severity knee injury to three ligaments. He says he is ready to go and will compete for the LT job. Jax fans are actually talking about Jones but in theory under the right circumstances could afford to and might bid for JJ though this would take some particular circumstances. Not likely but certainly a possibility. San Diego Chargers- Plenty of cap room but prescence of well regarded Roman Oben as a starter who they just acquired last year in a trade takes them out of the market. In addition their substantial cap room likely to be reduced by franchising Brees San Francisco 49ers- They are probably the best bet to go after a player like JJ, though they have the cap room to go after one of the better LTs if available. They currently have Kosler who is a versatile youngster at LT, but he is not a stud starter and his versatility allows them to purchase a stud starter and move him. The 9er ownership has been pretty bad and befuddled recently and unwilling to invest in the team but perhaps this will interest them in getting a second tier LT like JJ they can market. Baltimore Ravens They have Jonathan Ogden and are not in the LT market Philadelphia Eagles There is some lack of clarity whether LT Tra Thomas will be available or not. He has a contract through 2008 on NFLPA,com but is on an idependent web site as a UFA and the media has talked about him being a candidate for the franchise tag (which they gave to Corey Simon). For the moment put them down as not in the market. Dallas Cowboys- The prescence of Pro Bowl LY Flozell Adams takes them out of the market Chicago Bears - Another candidate for the JJ sweepstakes as they have some cap room and have Colombo who was well regarded when drafted but missed the 2003 season due to injury. He played at least a few games at LT last year but this team may be interested. NY Jets- Prescence of Jason Fabini takes NYJ out ofthe market for an LT Indianapolis Colts Prescence of Tarik Glenn takes the Colts out of the LT market Cleveland Browns - Prescence of Ross Verba at LT makes it unlikely this team would go for JJ, but then who knows what will happen at this management and injury disaster area. Detroit Lions- Former first round choice has started roughly 60 straight games at LT for the Lions who also will have to pay or look for a replacement for RT Stocker McDouhle taking them out of the market for an LT. St. Louis Rams- Have franchised Orlando Pace taking themselves out of the LT market Arizona Cardinals- Have big contract in LT Leonard Davis taking them out of the LT market What do you know? This reduces the potential JJ market to three teams Jax, Chicago and the Niners. Of these three, Chicago and the Niners did so badly last year that they likely will want to use their biggest cap dollars for a player to market and excite the fan base though clearly if you want to win starting with the trenches is a good thing to do. However, these teams have enough needs that they have multiple OL or DL places they can improve if they want to spend the cap dollars this way. While possibilities neither is a stone cold lock. Likewise with Jax that has plenty of cap room and no player firm for the job. Yet in ternally Pearson is a real candidate and they have the money to spend to get the best available if Seattle tags Hasselbeck or Alexander leaving Jones as a potential target I suspect may interest them more than JJ if they decide to go outside. Overall, I think the deal is here that TD did a great job for our cap by low-balling JJ as there probably will not be a bidding war for JJ that forces us to do much better than a low-ball offer ($5 million would be quite generous and something at the $3 million level would be brutal but may be the best offer JJ gets. Folks have posted that JJ will get many offers at inflated LT levels (Clifton and Petitgout both got $5 million bucks annually and neither impresses me) but this is a buyers market rather than a sellers market and the Bills have lots of leverage here (including worse comes to worse several internal team options and there simply isn't much of an obvious market for JJ here even if you assume he is among the best LTs available.. 236602[/snapback] only 3 teams , huh pretty wishful thinking Current salary cap status is no indication that teams won't be able to free up money. Dolphins are desparate for OL, especially LT and have a new fron toffice that will not commit 75% of its cap space to defense. Roman Oben sucks and was a stop gap because nothing else was available last year - which is why TeflonTom better not let Jennings go without his replacement on the roster.
Ray Posted February 12, 2005 Posted February 12, 2005 Sign Jennings for a cap figure of around 5M/yr and you've got yourself a good deal. Face it, to sign any of the others Pace, Thomas etc will cost you much more for very little more in talent. Jennings is getting better and knows this team well. If we sign Jennings and Pat and get a legit TE then this team will have done its job in the offseason.
Buffalo Wing Posted February 12, 2005 Posted February 12, 2005 Excellent analysis Fake-Fat Sunny. Finally someone actually posts an opinion with some data to back it up. Much better than the usual posts of "Drew sucks, therefore let's cut him". My opinion on the issue: Given this year's market, I firmly believe that JJ will end up in Buffalo. Teams that appear to have the greatest need for a LT have so many other pressing needs (e.g., Chicago desperately needs some WR help to stay alive in the NFC Norris, San Fran needs MAJOR defensive help to even compete in the NFC West, etc.). TD will give Jonas a fair contract but definitely not the big $$$ he was hoping for.
d_wag Posted February 12, 2005 Posted February 12, 2005 obie hit the nail on the head -- just because a team is over the cap now does not mean they won't have room come march 2nd....... CAR, WAS, NYG, ATL, and MIA could all make offers to jennings........
Typical TBD Guy Posted February 12, 2005 Posted February 12, 2005 Great post! Love the analysis! Here's your next homework assignment, FFS: Analyze the free agent market for DT. Estimate PW's potential salary w/bonus, and then determine the teams outside Buffalo that would be willing to resign PW for this price. I expect your assignment to be finished and posted by noon tomorrow...
obie_wan Posted February 12, 2005 Posted February 12, 2005 Great post! Love the analysis! Here's your next homework assignment, FFS: Analyze the free agent market for DT. Estimate PW's potential salary w/bonus, and then determine the teams outside Buffalo that would be willing to resign PW for this price. I expect your assignment to be finished and posted by noon tomorrow... 236857[/snapback] Fat Pat will probably be let go and Edwards and Anderson allowed to fill the role. FAt Pat will want too much money for his age and likely production.
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted February 12, 2005 Author Posted February 12, 2005 Great post! Love the analysis! Here's your next homework assignment, FFS: Analyze the free agent market for DT. Estimate PW's potential salary w/bonus, and then determine the teams outside Buffalo that would be willing to resign PW for this price. I expect your assignment to be finished and posted by noon tomorrow... 236857[/snapback] I did that earlier this week. Didn't you see the post? Well, i guess you'll just have to go look for it. Write me when you find it.
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted February 12, 2005 Author Posted February 12, 2005 only 3 teams , huh pretty wishful thinking Current salary cap status is no indication that teams won't be able to free up money. Dolphins are desparate for OL, especially LT and have a new fron toffice that will not commit 75% of its cap space to defense. Roman Oben sucks and was a stop gap because nothing else was available last year - which is why TeflonTom better not let Jennings go without his replacement on the roster. 236623[/snapback] I think the Bills should resign JJ to as cheap a contract as they can (my wild-eyed guess is roughly $4 million/ yr. cap hit but a WAG it is). Its a risk. but actually between the switch to an adult an OL coach (even if you don't think the world of JMac he is way much way better than Vinky and Ruel), the personnel that we have and JJ probably but at least due to a history of injuries is a big risk, I am happy to see the Bills "screw" him to the wall and still give him the biggest paycheck he has ever seen in his life. Cerainly, it would be preferable to keep JJ, but he is simply not a worthwhile risk at top 10 OL money, or quite frankly is a marginal risk to take for a contract that lesser players than JJ like Clifton and Petitigout signed in different markets. If JJ gets a better offer than the $4 million max annually I think the Bills should offer him, then we wish him well and drop back to some less preferable but doable plan Bs in my judgment. Our back-up plans to signing JJ for less than the previous LT market value strike me as: 1. MW has made definitie progress with is career after really letting down his teammates and the town last off-season when his Grandma died. Being rocked by the loss of the woman who raised you is understandable, but MW is paid bigger bucks than he and most people deserve to suck it up when these trouble hit and be a professional. He has a cap hit this year that is at an LT level and if JMac thinks he is up to it, he might make the flip to LT and guarding the QB's blindside as he did in college for a lefty. I think the concerns expressed in the past by ICE (and others that got so many things so wrong about this team) that he needed to move to guard because of his lack of agility were based more on him being such a big boy and JMac putting the fear of the braintrust into him than they were by his play on the field. MW showed outstanding agility for such a huge guys in the Combine and in private workouts from what I here. His sack problems for the Bills have been real, but have not come from him being routinely beaten around the corner by the speed rush (as Schobel did to a leading light like Ogden so it happens from time to time even to the best of them) but actually by an inability to coordinate stunts with folks like Pacillo. My preference is to have MW agree to a restructuring that lowers his cap hit and to spend this season further improving his game at RT, but if push comes to shove and we lose the JJ risk then switching MW to LT is possible if JMac thinks he can do it. 2. Move Teague to the LT position he origninally was signed to play. I think complaints about him "proving" he couldn't do the job at LT in Denver also are overblown. He was not a stud LT in Denver, but he was adequate and Denver did not decide to cut him, they decided not to risk a big contract on him particularly as he has missed the entire previous season with an ACL tear. I think he has shown with his play that he has recovered from the previous injury (though a new injury which cost him some time at C in '04 makes resigning back-up Price essential if Teague is our starting LT). In addition, I think he will be a better player at LT now having learned the more difficult job mentally of being an NFL center. The bigger question if you move Teague to fill in the vacant LT job is what do we do at center. i think that Tucker did an excellent job at center as a back-up filling in for Teague and I feel comfortable asking him to take on this challenge if I am forced to the Teague plan B (or C) at LT. 3. Other internal switches caused by the tremor of moving Teague or MW to LT are that it leaves a hole similar to the Tucker situation to be filled. If ecessary I look too Price to take a shot at full time RT if I mover MW and there is even an outside shot that Price who has been a great consistent back-up to the oft injured and nicked JJ at LT gets a shot. In addition, an MW move creates an opening at the less critical (than the blindside guarding) LT role. Herre Tucker who originally made it in this league as a tackle and Peters who remains listed on the depth chart as a tackle get a shot at RT if JMac judges they merit it, In addition to these two primary internal LT options and the several internal options for dealing with openings left by this move, FA is a real possibility for the Bills with our increasing cap room. A Jones will be too expensive at LT, but if you are able to move MW or Teague then there are many far less exspensive but well though of FA alternatives out there at RT or C (Stoker MacDougle for example) who can be bought far more cheaply than an LT to fill the gap. A big key in all of this if losing JJ creates tremors is that based on the improvement of the OL last year (over the horrendous job done by Ruel/Vinky within the Kevin Killdrive Noffense) he will have to meet the challenge of building an OL from a lot of different tools. he did this at SB level effectiveness for the Giants a few years back with folks at the Dusty Ziegler talent level and I am confident that he can do it again with the current level of talent the Bills have with a supplement from FA which will be great but may not even be necessary. I have no problem with them trying to squeeze JJ for every dime they can get because ultimately even a $3 million annual deal which is far below the going rate last year for LTs will be the biggest wad o cash he has ever seen.
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted February 12, 2005 Author Posted February 12, 2005 Sign Jennings for a cap figure of around 5M/yr and you've got yourself a good deal. Face it, to sign any of the others Pace, Thomas etc will cost you much more for very little more in talent. Jennings is getting better and knows this team well. If we sign Jennings and Pat and get a legit TE then this team will have done its job in the offseason. 236637[/snapback] JJs injury history is just the big factual wildcard here. if you look at the LTs who qualified for the Pro Bowll players like Pace and Jones are going into their 3rd straight season of starting every game and its not unheard of for some NFL LTs to rack up 60-100 straight starts. JJ has simply never had a season where he started all 16 in his four year career and year before last he ended up on IR and only logged about 12 starts. Add to that since I see him all the time there are a couple of games he started but was not able to finish (thank gosh for Price) because of a nick. I'm pleased he proved to be a gamer and was able to start the next week but this does not eliminate the fact he gets injured in a significant way that goes beyond the stats. Further, perhaps his nicks would be more forgiveable if his play was perfect when he can suit up, but he seems to get a critical penalty almost once a game and Abraham beat him like a drum last year in the first Jets game so he is good generally but can be beaten in a game. Once in a while simply happens, but its bad news when he gets outclassed in a whole game. I think he is worth resigning because consistency is important to performance and because he has had little adult position coaching in his career, but he is not worth a top 10 cap hit at this position and further I am willing to see us risk losing him to play a saturated LT market to the max.
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted February 12, 2005 Author Posted February 12, 2005 only 3 teams , huh pretty wishful thinking Current salary cap status is no indication that teams won't be able to free up money. Dolphins are desparate for OL, especially LT and have a new fron toffice that will not commit 75% of its cap space to defense. Roman Oben sucks and was a stop gap because nothing else was available last year - which is why TeflonTom better not let Jennings go without his replacement on the roster. 236623[/snapback] I disagree in that while current salary cap status is not even a near perfect indication of what a team will do, it is SOME indication of what a team will do. The Fins need and LT, but they need an RB, a QB, a WR as Boston is an idiot, a host of other line positions and even if you feel that Saban will focus on offense he cannot forget about a defense where the LBs are getting a little long in the tooth. In order for the Fins to go after JJ in a big way, they will have to: 1. Create cap room which they can and must by letting go current starters and thus create additional openings for cheap players. 2. Decide to spend that cap room on a player who has been good when he plays, but has never started all 16 games (unlike first tier players like Jones or Pace) in his career in his career. 3. Decide also to risk that precious cap resource on a player who like it or not does seem to take a bad penalty every other game at a rate which exceeds penalties to his linemates and can be beaten liks a drum on occaision by a better player as he was this season in the first NYJ game against Abraham. Perhaps the best argument they have for signing JJ is that he is a secon tier LT talent who will be far cheaper than first tier talents who will be available, but if thats the case it certainly doesn't argue for the Bills spending first tier money on JJ. They should take the risk of losing him and merely sign him to a second tier LT contract which will still be a bigger paycheck than he has ever seen. PS I only know Oben by name and will take a look to see whether they might add to the list of the JJ market. Even if they do join the list at 4 potential suitors, Teflon Tom should hang tough on this one.
Snorom Posted February 12, 2005 Posted February 12, 2005 I agree with alot that Mr. Skinny as devulged. Although there may be a few more teams interested JJ will not get as much play as people think. He is not a stand-out LT, and does have injury issues. Personally I would rather have Walter Jones, and I hope TD and Co. do bring him in if he is not franchised. If we could land WJ, and one of the top FA G's available in this years FA, re-sign Marcus Price for depth our OL will be in very very nice shape. We should still have enough left over for Pat Williams, and a back up QB.
obie_wan Posted February 13, 2005 Posted February 13, 2005 I disagree in that while current salary cap status is not even a near perfect indication of what a team will do, it is SOME indication of what a team will do. The Fins need and LT, but they need an RB, a QB, a WR as Boston is an idiot, a host of other line positions and even if you feel that Saban will focus on offense he cannot forget about a defense where the LBs are getting a little long in the tooth. 236958[/snapback] Miami is just one team that you have evaluated incorrectly. There are many more. Miami needs an OL before everything else, starting with a stud at LT. They have 2 extremely good Wr's in Chambers and booker, without Boston. They will probably draft a RB to go with Gordon. To say they will have no interest in JJ is just plain ignorant. The same will apply to many more teams as well. Bills will take a serious step bakcwards if they go with your stop-gap solutions at LT. MW will never be any good at LT because his footwork is too bad to handle speed rushers.
BB2004 Posted February 13, 2005 Posted February 13, 2005 Folks can debate either way about JJ's value as a player, but the other part of reality is regardless of how you feel about his supply of talent, the other part of setting his value is the demand for LTs in the marketplace. I think a team-by-team analysis is revealing. The following is the difficult tale for Jennings and the powerful position the Bills are in as far as negotiations and is a big part of why TD gave him a lowball offer. Potential market for offering a contract for Jennings too rich for the Bill's blood is the 31 other teams in the NFL, but: The Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Redskins , New Orleans Saints, Houston Texans Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, NY Giants, Oakland Raiders. Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs,Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins , and the Tennessee Titans all have $5 million or less in cap room in the descending order above (or particular note is JJs first choice to go home to AT, but given their substantial negative number in cap room they will have to cut current players to merely make the cap rather than make an offer to JJ). Lack of cap room reduces the potential JJ market to 14 teams. Of these remaining teams: Minnesota Vikings are committed to McKinnie are not in the market for an LT Seattle Seahawks has substantial cap room but has significant plyers and positions to resign such as RB Shaun Alexander, QB Matt Hasselbeck and LT Walter Jones. There is some talk of the franchising Jones which take them out of the market or even if they do not the Bills may be able to outbid Seattle with a lowball bid. Jacksonville Jaguars- The Jags have substantial cap room and actually may be uin the market for an LT. Ephraim Salaam started all 16 games there this year and was adequate at best. However, their prior starter was Mike Pearson who sat out last year with a WM severity knee injury to three ligaments. He says he is ready to go and will compete for the LT job. Jax fans are actually talking about Jones but in theory under the right circumstances could afford to and might bid for JJ though this would take some particular circumstances. Not likely but certainly a possibility. San Diego Chargers- Plenty of cap room but prescence of well regarded Roman Oben as a starter who they just acquired last year in a trade takes them out of the market. In addition their substantial cap room likely to be reduced by franchising Brees San Francisco 49ers- They are probably the best bet to go after a player like JJ, though they have the cap room to go after one of the better LTs if available. They currently have Kosler who is a versatile youngster at LT, but he is not a stud starter and his versatility allows them to purchase a stud starter and move him. The 9er ownership has been pretty bad and befuddled recently and unwilling to invest in the team but perhaps this will interest them in getting a second tier LT like JJ they can market. Baltimore Ravens They have Jonathan Ogden and are not in the LT market Philadelphia Eagles There is some lack of clarity whether LT Tra Thomas will be available or not. He has a contract through 2008 on NFLPA,com but is on an idependent web site as a UFA and the media has talked about him being a candidate for the franchise tag (which they gave to Corey Simon). For the moment put them down as not in the market. Dallas Cowboys- The prescence of Pro Bowl LY Flozell Adams takes them out of the market Chicago Bears - Another candidate for the JJ sweepstakes as they have some cap room and have Colombo who was well regarded when drafted but missed the 2003 season due to injury. He played at least a few games at LT last year but this team may be interested. NY Jets- Prescence of Jason Fabini takes NYJ out ofthe market for an LT Indianapolis Colts Prescence of Tarik Glenn takes the Colts out of the LT market Cleveland Browns - Prescence of Ross Verba at LT makes it unlikely this team would go for JJ, but then who knows what will happen at this management and injury disaster area. Detroit Lions- Former first round choice has started roughly 60 straight games at LT for the Lions who also will have to pay or look for a replacement for RT Stocker McDouhle taking them out of the market for an LT. St. Louis Rams- Have franchised Orlando Pace taking themselves out of the LT market Arizona Cardinals- Have big contract in LT Leonard Davis taking them out of the LT market What do you know? This reduces the potential JJ market to three teams Jax, Chicago and the Niners. Of these three, Chicago and the Niners did so badly last year that they likely will want to use their biggest cap dollars for a player to market and excite the fan base though clearly if you want to win starting with the trenches is a good thing to do. However, these teams have enough needs that they have multiple OL or DL places they can improve if they want to spend the cap dollars this way. While possibilities neither is a stone cold lock. Likewise with Jax that has plenty of cap room and no player firm for the job. Yet in ternally Pearson is a real candidate and they have the money to spend to get the best available if Seattle tags Hasselbeck or Alexander leaving Jones as a potential target I suspect may interest them more than JJ if they decide to go outside. Overall, I think the deal is here that TD did a great job for our cap by low-balling JJ as there probably will not be a bidding war for JJ that forces us to do much better than a low-ball offer ($5 million would be quite generous and something at the $3 million level would be brutal but may be the best offer JJ gets. Folks have posted that JJ will get many offers at inflated LT levels (Clifton and Petitgout both got $5 million bucks annually and neither impresses me) but this is a buyers market rather than a sellers market and the Bills have lots of leverage here (including worse comes to worse several internal team options and there simply isn't much of an obvious market for JJ here even if you assume he is among the best LTs available.. 236602[/snapback] If we are not committed to spening a lot of money on a tackle and using it for other offensive help, Jennings is the guy we want. As we have seen time and again, a dominant left tackle to protect the quarterback's blindside is a beautiful thing to have. When the Bills had Will Wilford, they were outstanding. Why not go and get the top guy.
John from Riverside Posted February 13, 2005 Posted February 13, 2005 Folks can debate either way about JJ's value as a player, but the other part of reality is regardless of how you feel about his supply of talent, the other part of setting his value is the demand for LTs in the marketplace. I think a team-by-team analysis is revealing. The following is the difficult tale for Jennings and the powerful position the Bills are in as far as negotiations and is a big part of why TD gave him a lowball offer. Potential market for offering a contract for Jennings too rich for the Bill's blood is the 31 other teams in the NFL, but: The Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Redskins , New Orleans Saints, Houston Texans Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, NY Giants, Oakland Raiders. Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs,Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins , and the Tennessee Titans all have $5 million or less in cap room in the descending order above (or particular note is JJs first choice to go home to AT, but given their substantial negative number in cap room they will have to cut current players to merely make the cap rather than make an offer to JJ). Lack of cap room reduces the potential JJ market to 14 teams. Of these remaining teams: Minnesota Vikings are committed to McKinnie are not in the market for an LT Seattle Seahawks has substantial cap room but has significant plyers and positions to resign such as RB Shaun Alexander, QB Matt Hasselbeck and LT Walter Jones. There is some talk of the franchising Jones which take them out of the market or even if they do not the Bills may be able to outbid Seattle with a lowball bid. Jacksonville Jaguars- The Jags have substantial cap room and actually may be uin the market for an LT. Ephraim Salaam started all 16 games there this year and was adequate at best. However, their prior starter was Mike Pearson who sat out last year with a WM severity knee injury to three ligaments. He says he is ready to go and will compete for the LT job. Jax fans are actually talking about Jones but in theory under the right circumstances could afford to and might bid for JJ though this would take some particular circumstances. Not likely but certainly a possibility. San Diego Chargers- Plenty of cap room but prescence of well regarded Roman Oben as a starter who they just acquired last year in a trade takes them out of the market. In addition their substantial cap room likely to be reduced by franchising Brees San Francisco 49ers- They are probably the best bet to go after a player like JJ, though they have the cap room to go after one of the better LTs if available. They currently have Kosler who is a versatile youngster at LT, but he is not a stud starter and his versatility allows them to purchase a stud starter and move him. The 9er ownership has been pretty bad and befuddled recently and unwilling to invest in the team but perhaps this will interest them in getting a second tier LT like JJ they can market. Baltimore Ravens They have Jonathan Ogden and are not in the LT market Philadelphia Eagles There is some lack of clarity whether LT Tra Thomas will be available or not. He has a contract through 2008 on NFLPA,com but is on an idependent web site as a UFA and the media has talked about him being a candidate for the franchise tag (which they gave to Corey Simon). For the moment put them down as not in the market. Dallas Cowboys- The prescence of Pro Bowl LY Flozell Adams takes them out of the market Chicago Bears - Another candidate for the JJ sweepstakes as they have some cap room and have Colombo who was well regarded when drafted but missed the 2003 season due to injury. He played at least a few games at LT last year but this team may be interested. NY Jets- Prescence of Jason Fabini takes NYJ out ofthe market for an LT Indianapolis Colts Prescence of Tarik Glenn takes the Colts out of the LT market Cleveland Browns - Prescence of Ross Verba at LT makes it unlikely this team would go for JJ, but then who knows what will happen at this management and injury disaster area. Detroit Lions- Former first round choice has started roughly 60 straight games at LT for the Lions who also will have to pay or look for a replacement for RT Stocker McDouhle taking them out of the market for an LT. St. Louis Rams- Have franchised Orlando Pace taking themselves out of the LT market Arizona Cardinals- Have big contract in LT Leonard Davis taking them out of the LT market What do you know? This reduces the potential JJ market to three teams Jax, Chicago and the Niners. Of these three, Chicago and the Niners did so badly last year that they likely will want to use their biggest cap dollars for a player to market and excite the fan base though clearly if you want to win starting with the trenches is a good thing to do. However, these teams have enough needs that they have multiple OL or DL places they can improve if they want to spend the cap dollars this way. While possibilities neither is a stone cold lock. Likewise with Jax that has plenty of cap room and no player firm for the job. Yet in ternally Pearson is a real candidate and they have the money to spend to get the best available if Seattle tags Hasselbeck or Alexander leaving Jones as a potential target I suspect may interest them more than JJ if they decide to go outside. Overall, I think the deal is here that TD did a great job for our cap by low-balling JJ as there probably will not be a bidding war for JJ that forces us to do much better than a low-ball offer ($5 million would be quite generous and something at the $3 million level would be brutal but may be the best offer JJ gets. Folks have posted that JJ will get many offers at inflated LT levels (Clifton and Petitgout both got $5 million bucks annually and neither impresses me) but this is a buyers market rather than a sellers market and the Bills have lots of leverage here (including worse comes to worse several internal team options and there simply isn't much of an obvious market for JJ here even if you assume he is among the best LTs available.. 236602[/snapback] What is getting left out of this equation is that Left Tackle is only part of the task we have to take on..... We need stability at Left Tackle AND Left Guard.....quite simply....left guard is simply not at the level we need it to play...... I like the combonation of Villy and Mike WIlliams on the other side....a dominating run blocking tandem and really coming on in pass protection I can live with either Teague or Tucker at center I thought our interior protection was much better last year..... We NEED a nasty, run blocking, athletic get to the second level, good pass protecting left guard..... To me the best option is Jonas Jennings and a QUALITY left guard in free agency
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted February 13, 2005 Author Posted February 13, 2005 Miami is just one team that you have evaluated incorrectly. There are many more. Miami needs an OL before everything else, starting with a stud at LT. They have 2 extremely good Wr's in Chambers and booker, without Boston. They will probably draft a RB to go with Gordon. To say they will have no interest in JJ is just plain ignorant. The same will apply to many more teams as well. Bills will take a serious step bakcwards if they go with your stop-gap solutions at LT. MW will never be any good at LT because his footwork is too bad to handle speed rushers. 237070[/snapback] I'm among the first to say that my thoughts thougj voluminous are mere theory and can be totally wrong if teams go in a different direction than I think makes sense. However, I think that the basic theory I have certainly differs from the conventional wisdom that there will be tons of demand out there for JJ and I differ from the conventional wisdom of great demand for JJ even before you get to assessment of his play because as I did some research to point out the market is a buyer's market (the teams looking) rather than being a seller's market (the player) and that should hold his price down nicely. I may be wrong (and for sure am wrong) about some individual team (actually teams) but I think my basic point remains uncontroverted except by the wishful thinking of those who for some reason think the 2005 LT market will be the same as the 2004 or 2003 markets, it is exactly those big contracts that were signed for LTs in the past which will restrict LT value this year as we shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market. People are going to buy that or understand that as they can so we can actually move on to some player assessment issues, even though I think they are a secondary factor in setting a price for JJ, You say "Miami needs an OL before everything else, starting with a stud at LT"- I agree but what you thinks that JJ is or might even will be a stud at LT? Has he been able to play a full 16 games in a season as stud LTs like Jones and Pace did the last two at any point in his career? No. Doe he pick up more penalties than other players on the Bills OL, or is he relatively penalty free like a stud OL player? No. Someone can go find the stats but I know at one point about 2/3 of the way through the season MW had 1 penalty (which was a sign of his progress and Villarial has one offside called on him which the league apologized for as it cost us a key 1st) meanwhile JJ was producing about a penalty every other game. The LT generally plays against tougher competition and is often out on his own and thus the refs see everything, but he does get his with a lot penalties. Can he be beaten like a drum by a stud DE. Yep. Every LT gets beat on occaision (as Ogden was beaten by Schobel and one play does not represent a problem, but Abraham beat him througout a whole game and stud LTs makes some mistakes (though they can shut out and dominate good players) but players are not studs if they get beaten consistently in a game, JJ is solid and may develop into a stud one day (an emphasis on the MAY) but his record of never having been durable makes this a hope rather than a good football judgment based on any objective criteria. You say: "They will probably draft a RB to go with Gordon" but trade and FA are just as likely a possibility, in fact they are more likely as Miami is short of a wn round pick. An RN pick-up strikes me as crucial for the Fins in terms of changing the team in terms of football and marketing as it will be essential to them washing the Rickey stain out of their hair, By relegating this option to the draft I think you under value the importance of this spot to the Fins. You say: "To say they will have no interest in JJ is just plain ignorant." Wrong? Almost certainly about some key points, but ignorant. No, I state some objective evidence for my views which I am happy to see objective evidence which speaks against my views rather than just mere opinion. You say: Bills will take a serious step bakcwards if they go with your stop-gap solutions at LT. MW will never be any good at LT because his footwork is too bad to handle speed rushers." Many fans seem more than happy to take a step back as they afvocated benching Bledsoe for first year guy JP snd even in his second year expect some development bumps but dislike Bledsoe so much they are willing to accept stepping back to move forward in the future, so if you want to complain about this there are bigger real issues on the horizon. As far as MW, simply list all the many speed rushers who beat him (I think he has more problems on the inside actually though having Villarial rather than Pacillo next door has helped alot). If this is such an issue for MW then one should be able to point out the players who performed the same way Abraham did on your stud JJ.
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted February 13, 2005 Author Posted February 13, 2005 What is getting left out of this equation is that Left Tackle is only part of the task we have to take on..... We need stability at Left Tackle AND Left Guard.....quite simply....left guard is simply not at the level we need it to play...... I like the combonation of Villy and Mike WIlliams on the other side....a dominating run blocking tandem and really coming on in pass protection I can live with either Teague or Tucker at center I thought our interior protection was much better last year..... We NEED a nasty, run blocking, athletic get to the second level, good pass protecting left guard..... To me the best option is Jonas Jennings and a QUALITY left guard in free agency 237224[/snapback] The problem is that if JJ re-signs at the pre-emptive LT rate some seem to advocate ($ 5 mill seems to be the base rate in the past, $6 mill is the transition tag level, $7 mill is the franchise tag level and some folks even advocating tagging JJ), but this gets added to a definite cap hit for MW of $5.8, which means these two players would occupy more than $10 million of an $84 million cap for the whole team. Add a $3 million cap hit for Villarial, and a bit over $2 million for Teague and I doubt if it fits in the Bills budget to resign JJ and spend more than the current salary amount of the NFL minimum for a newbie at LG. If a fan feels new blood at LG is so critical then you should root against resigning JJ or at least for TD screwing him to the wall and signing him for little cause of the market.
John from Riverside Posted February 13, 2005 Posted February 13, 2005 The problem is that if JJ re-signs at the pre-emptive LT rate some seem to advocate ($ 5 mill seems to be the base rate in the past, $6 mill is the transition tag level, $7 mill is the franchise tag level and some folks even advocating tagging JJ), but this gets added to a definite cap hit for MW of $5.8, which means these two players would occupy more than $10 million of an $84 million cap for the whole team. Add a $3 million cap hit for Villarial, and a bit over $2 million for Teague and I doubt if it fits in the Bills budget to resign JJ and spend more than the current salary amount of the NFL minimum for a newbie at LG. If a fan feels new blood at LG is so critical then you should root against resigning JJ or at least for TD screwing him to the wall and signing him for little cause of the market. 237244[/snapback] I am basing that on the fact that I dont think Jennings will command Pace type free agent money..... If he DOES then I think we have to let him walk......and bring in another "2nd tier" LT to go along with a new LG
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