Tyrod Taylor to start Week 2 preseason

[Ozymandius]

In regards to yards per attempt averages in this game... (Passing yards+Rushing Yards+Sack Yards/Passing Attempts+Rushing Attempts+Sacks)

 

 

I like what you're trying to do here.

 

At the same time, you have to do something to account for this:

 

a) 20 rushes for 100 yards

b) 20 passing attempts for 120 yards

 

which is better? in your system, B would win

[dayman]

I really don't know why everyone is so concerned about him running first. He isn't Johnny football he looks like prime Vick running. I say run all day. When the defense commits spies and overt pursues Percy or Sammy will wreck havoc

[Georgia Bill]

Tyrod starts preseason game 2 (known), and I think it's EJ second in that game. Then EJ starts preseason game 3, with Cassel second, because this is still a wide open competition and they have to see how all of them play with our starting OL and receivers, against opposing starting defense.

[bourbonboy]

Cleveland starting D is no joke - TT gets the toughest test of the preseason here....if he performs well, he deserves to become the front-runner, if he's not already.

 

TT got them in the end zone last night - twice - something Cassell didn't do at all, even though he went 7/8 passing. And I don't buy the whole "it'll never last once the D's game plan for TT" argument. First, the same can be said for Cassel - once D's realize he's just constantly checking down, then they bring everyone up, and both the checkdowns and run game come grinding to a halt (anyone remember our Trent Edwards offense?). And second, TT is not just a runner. I said it before - if Goodwin and Thompson make those catches last night (both were well thrown, catchable balls), TT wouldn't have needed to run as much - but he did to keep the drives alive, and the Bills came out with points.

Edited August 15, 2015 by bourbonboy

[BuffaloBaumer]

Probably not. But I don't understand the logic. Unless people think Cassel can light up the middle of field in the 15-20 yard zone, which is probably TT's biggest weakness, which is probably all QB's biggest weakness, what are we even talking about? Both can make plays in the deep passing game, both can make plays in the short passing game. Only TT opens up the entire playbook. Only TT forces players out of coverage or rushing and into Spy's. If people want to start Cassel based on a marginally better short passing game and give up on all the additional elements TT brings to this offense I don't see it being more productive for us.

 

Again, I agree

Tyrod starts preseason game 2 (known), and I think it's EJ second in that game. Then EJ starts preseason game 3, with Cassel second, because this is still a wide open competition and they have to see how all of them play with our starting OL and receivers, against opposing starting defense.

 

I would be absolutely shocked if EJ started game 3

[Wayne Cubed]

Went back and watched the replay of Taylor's play.

 

Honestly, not too worried about him throwing in the pocket after that game. He does it a couple times. And I wouldn't say he ALWAYs looks to run. On the near sack play, he rolled out and found Karlos Williams, when he could have ran. Three of his runs looked like they were designed runs. Naked bootleg, read option(which was the longest run), and a roll out.

 

I guess next week will be the true test.

[peterpan]

Until defenses shut that crap down and make him beat them from the pocket like they did with Kaep in SF.

TBD

 

And just how they did with R. Wilson in Seattle

In regards to yards per attempt averages in this game... (Passing yards+Rushing Yards+Sack Yards/Passing Attempts+Rushing Attempts+Sacks)

 

Manuel 7.09 on 11 attempts

Taylor 6.86 on 14 attempts

Cassell 5.63 on 8 attempts

Simms 3.00 on 5 attempts

 

Realistically, Manuel did play the best. It's just very hard for people to see that. One could say well he had a 51 yard pass going into that data. But it was a perfectly thrown ball and he's probably the only guy on the roster that can make that throw. Factor in the drops and he should have been north of 9.0 YPA. Manuel played better then people are giving him credit. Another consideration, more attempts, more stabilization in data. So Taylor gets a bump in that regard as likely having the most stabilized stat line of the 4 in this particular sample. I like what my eyes saw out of Cassell but I don't like this line. He won't improve it with his legs. I don't see him besting EJ in the long passing game. His best area for growth over EJ and Taylor seems to be in the 10-20 yard passing window but Roman throws passes in that box at one of the lowest clips in the NFL. Plus if you go with Cassell you lose all running ability from the QB spot. I don't like that limitation and I don't think Roman does either.

*Unless you actually watched the game last night, and know that Tyrod was the only one out there making plays. This isn't baseball, those kind of stats don't matter. Even on EJs touchdown throw, he is probably getting reamed about his terrible footwork on that throw and how he is super lucky it was still on target. Tyrod's 3 incomplete passes were on fades. Two if not all three would have been easy catches if they were being thrown to Sammy and not camp-fodder #80

 

- My point is Tyrod's 3 incomplete passes were much more impressive and telling than EJs lucky TD pass.

Edited August 15, 2015 by peterpan

[PolishDave]

The thing I liked most about TT last night was that the offense seemed to move the ball easily and quickly. While he was in there, the offense got momentum quickly and kept their foot on the gas.

 

It has been a really long time since we saw a Buffalo Bills offense that gained momentum quickly and kept their foot on the gas. The offense clicked with him in there. And you got this sense that a big play was coming. God I love watching my team when you have a gut feeling that they are about to make a huge play. I got that last night.

 

If he can lead the team like that in the next couple preseason games, then he will start week 1.

 

TT, please, please keep it going.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

And just how they did with R. Wilson in Seattle

*Unless you actually watched the game last night, and know that Tyrod was the only one out there making plays. This isn't baseball, those kind of stats don't matter. Even on EJs touchdown throw, he is probably getting reamed about his terrible footwork on that throw and how he is super lucky it was still on target.

Pure lunacy!

[ko12010]

 

Yes, this is indeed the key. Unfortunately, even with a start against Cleveland's first string next week I doubt we will really get an answer to this question.

 

I know EJ doesn't have a shot any more, but in his time on the field he showed a lot of poise in the pocket and made on point throws (except for the last one).

Haha why would you say that? Statistically he was the best QB last night

[BarleyNY]

Just tell him to throw in Justin Gilbert's general direction and he will be fine.

True. Gilbert looks horrible, what a wasted pick. Problem is that he will be at the end of the bench for Cleveland in the regular season - if he's lucky.

 

The question is can a team gameplan for Tyrod, Shady, Watkins, Harvin, and Clay?

Yes. You primarily make him play from the pocket and beat you that way. You have your defense play to contain the run and him and go from there. Punish him if he runs and only go after him on obvious passing situations. Is that oversimplified? Sure, but it is what I'd do until he made me pay regularly. And if his passes weren't on the mark and he led his receivers into some hits, all the better.

 

while I'm taking last night with a grain of salt because athletic QBs often look better in PS than reg season when game planning sets in, I have had that thought as well. The 1st string OL, all the stud playmakers on offense out there, and our own game planning.... Could be interesting

True. I'm not getting overly excited yet, but he's worth a shot based on what I have seen and expect from Cassel and EJ. Tyrod is really our only hope, as unsettling as that is.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Does this mean that EJ will start the critical 3rd preseason game?

[26CornerBlitz]

Does this mean that EJ will start the critical 3rd preseason game?

Rex was noncommittal on that.

[Mr. WEO]

 

Realistically, Manuel did play the best. It's just very hard for people to see that.

 

 

Yeah, he's got to work on that.....it's very hard to see.

[LB3]

If TT plays well against Cleveland, I could see Rex naming him starter and letting him start the 3rd preseason game as well. It would suck for EJ to not get his chance with the ones, but if it's best for the team so be it.

[BarleyNY]

If TT plays well against Cleveland, I could see Rex naming him starter and letting him start the 3rd preseason game as well. It would suck for EJ to not get his chance with the ones, but if it's best for the team so be it.

Why not? It's not like the team doesn't already know what they have in Cassel (and EJ).

[Mister Defense]

I think EJ gets a shot with the twos, but if Tyrod looks good with the ones, I would assume he gets the nod week 3 and then in the regular season.

This just makes zero sense that people keep saying things like this. Cassel clearly is in the lead now, the most consistent and the most safe, as seen by his domination in the playing time with the first team and by comments by the coaching staff.

 

In my view, Taylor would really have to light it up for the next two weeks, and have very few negative plays, to even be considered the starter in week 1.

 

For Manuel, he would have to do even better than that to have a chance to start.

 

Cassel is in the lead, and it would take a great run by either of the other two to unseat him.

 

I definitely hope this happens, that Taylor or Manuel make that dramatic move, but for people to keep seeing something that is clearly not there doesn't make sense. It is clearly Cassel's job to lose, whether we like it or not.

[Mikie2times]

 

I like what you're trying to do here.

 

At the same time, you have to do something to account for this:

 

a) 20 rushes for 100 yards

b) 20 passing attempts for 120 yards

 

which is better? in your system, B would win

I've been using that metric for 7-8 years now and I'm comfortable with the way it is, but I do respect and appreciate the feedback. In your scenario that is correct, B) would win. That said, the difference between A) and B) is A's) attempts had a 0% chance to result in an incomplete pass. That aspect is what really powers the production rate of Running QB's without it ever showing up in the stat sheets in a correct way. A) will likely be more consistent in his production on account of that. You could almost look at it as a measure of volatility in data. A pass for 50 yards would really swing B), can we expect B) to consistently deliver that 50 yard pass into his metric? Likely not. With A) a higher expectation exists to produce that type of line on a game to game basis. Ultimately yards are yards and while teams deviate based on efficiency levels as far as converting yards to points, most NFL teams will stay right around 15 yards per point. When you see a high deviation in that stat it's usually a result of turnovers or high QB efficiency (Brady/Rodgers elites). I like Taylor's metrics when you include his running data. Similar to other QB's who bring mobility into the equation, the passing number just don't properly weight the performance they bring. Some might view passing yards to be more valuable. No statistical evidence exists that suggests that. No correlations exist between higher amounts of passing yards and lower yards per point values. The only correlations you see with lower yard per point values are with turnovers, ST, and the very, very few elite QB's and that aspect is more a product of RZ efficiency vs anything else.

[Doc]

This just makes zero sense that people keep saying things like this. Cassel clearly is in the lead now, the most consistent and the most safe, as seen by his domination in the playing time with the first team and by comments by the coaching staff.

 

In my view, Taylor would really have to light it up for the next two weeks, and have very few negative plays, to even be considered the starter in week 1.

 

For Manuel, he would have to do even better than that to have a chance to start.

 

Cassel is in the lead, and it would take a great run by either of the other two to unseat him.

 

I definitely hope this happens, that Taylor or Manuel make that dramatic move, but for people to keep seeing something that is clearly not there doesn't make sense. It is clearly Cassel's job to lose, whether we like it or not.

You can't make that claim since Taylor will be starting the next game. If Cassel is clearly in the lead, they'd let him start the rest of pre-season.

[Mikie2times]

 

 

Yeah, he's got to work on that.....it's very hard to see.

I have never liked EJ as a starter, I posted tons of threads analyzing his play at FSU when we drafted him. It was one preseason game and his line was the best in that one preseason game. That said it does nothing to make me feel any better that he is the man for the job.