Saxum Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 My wife got an email from her nephew overseas; he fails to understand US Geography and that we are more than 2000 miles from Seattle and other cities in Northwest and was warning us to get out not realizing the eventual Tsuamni which will hit west coast is more likely to him than us. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.” In fact, the science is robust, and one of the chief scientists behind it is Chris Goldfinger. Thanks to work done by him and his colleagues, we now know that the odds of the big Cascadia earthquake happening in the next fifty years are roughly one in three. The odds of the very big one are roughly one in ten. Link on Northwest Ghost Forest which was clue on determining last occurrence was on January 26, 1700 http://www.burkemuseum.org/static/earthquakes/bigone/detective.html Counting from the earthquake of 1700, we are now three hundred and fifteen years into a two-hundred-and-forty-three-year cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 (edited) Istanbull, Turkey is overdue for a massive earthquake too. And then there is the New Madrid fault.... Edited August 11, 2015 by Pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Acantha Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 This topic seems to be getting a lot more attention lately, which I suppose is good. I wonder if this knowledge is/will be a reason for people to leave the area; or keep people from moving there. Any board members that live there want to chime in? I assume most have the attitude that this will likely not happen any time soon so why worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-Daddy Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Istanbull, Turkey is overdue for a massive earthquake too. And then there is the New Madrid fault.... Yep, sitting here in Memphis waiting for that next big one. Reelfoot lake created by the last big one is very nice with eagles migrating through each winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 It's a very, very, very inexact science. I posted this a few weeks ago. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/179405-looks-like-i-picked-the-wrong-week-to-stop/?p=3605512 We're still here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Yep, sitting here in Memphis waiting for that next big one. Reelfoot lake created by the last big one is very nice with eagles migrating through each winter. scary. The USGS recently issued a fact sheet reiterating the estimate of a 10% chance of a New Madrid earthquake of magnitude comparable to those of 1811–1812 within the next 50 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Acantha Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 It's a very, very, very inexact science. I posted this a few weeks ago. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/179405-looks-like-i-picked-the-wrong-week-to-stop/?p=3605512 We're still here. You're referring to the timing? I've only read a handful of these types of articles, so in other words I really don't know **** about it, but it seems like the opinion that it will happen is pretty much fact. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying people should be fleeing the area; just curious if it's really even on the radar of the average person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 (edited) scary. The USGS recently issued a fact sheet reiterating the estimate of a 10% chance of a New Madrid earthquake of magnitude comparable to those of 1811–1812 within the next 50 years They base this on the historical frequency of quakes on certain faults and that's it. Once again a very, very inexact science and mother nature doesn't work that way. You're referring to the timing? I've only read a handful of these types of articles, so in other words I really don't know **** about it, but it seems like the opinion that it will happen is pretty much fact. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying people should be fleeing the area; just curious if it's really even on the radar of the average person. Sure it will happen. No effing doubt about it. But when? Who the !@#$ knows. Could be tomorrow could be 2150. I've lived in earthquake territory for 30 plus years and never give it a thought. Oh and you want to know when one's coming. Sleep with your dog or cat. They'll give you about a 20-30 second heads up. Edited August 11, 2015 by Chef Jim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 They base this on the historical frequency of quakes on certain faults and that's it. Once again a very, very inexact science and mother nature doesn't work that way. Sure it will happen. No effing doubt about it. But when? Who the !@#$ knows. Could be tomorrow could be 2150. I've lived in earthquake territory for 30 plus years and never give it a thought. Oh and you want to know when one's coming. Sleep with your dog or cat. They'll give you about a 20-30 second heads up. no **** its an inexact science. But the threat is very real. And inevitable http://www.riverfronttimes.com/content/printVersion/108402/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Oh and you want to know when one's coming. Sleep with your dog or cat. They'll give you about a 20-30 second heads up. As if you need to give half of this board's members a legitimate reason to sleep with animals ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 no **** its an inexact science. But the threat is very real. And inevitable http://www.riverfronttimes.com/content/printVersion/108402/ Yes and as was pointed out by someone in my thread that any day now (or your term inevitable) could be tomorrow or a thousand years. Hence the term exact science. So quit with the hysterics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dante Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 It seems like every 4 or 5 months there is a prediction of earthquake doom out here. I guess at some point one of these will be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 It seems like every 4 or 5 months there is a prediction of earthquake doom out here. I guess at some point one of these will be correct. People wonder how I can live out here with "all those" earthquakes. Well since 1983 I've felt the earth move to the point of concern maybe 5 times. Would have been 6 but I was in WNY during the Northridge quake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dante Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 People wonder how I can live out here with "all those" earthquakes. Well since 1983 I've felt the earth move to the point of concern maybe 5 times. Would have been 6 but I was in WNY during the Northridge quake. I've been here 15 years. Maybe 3 times a significant shake. Other times I'm asleep apparently and I miss those. Not enough to wake me up I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Poojer Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 (edited) Edited August 11, 2015 by The Poojer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 It seems like every 4 or 5 months there is a prediction of earthquake doom out here. I guess at some point one of these will be correct. I bet Leroi predicted it first. Imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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