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Posted

Seriously?

 

He was a hard-as* about hanging onto the ball before the rule change, too, yet the Patriots still fumbled about as frequently as most other teams back then.

 

It was only after the league granted Brady his new rule change that the Pats fumbe numbers dropped- quite literally - off the charts.

Posted

As bad as this seems in the abstract, how many close games might the Bills have lost to the Pats* because of a fumble or two? For instance, maybe if McKelvin had been using one of their balls we would have won that game when he fumbled. Sure, on balance, I know they've been the better team for awhile, but when I spend many thousands of dollars on season tickets over the years, I'd like to think I'm watching a fair contest. Instead, I'm furious because, really, cheating is stealing my hard-earned money from me.

Posted

Seriously?

 

He was a hard-as* about hanging onto the ball before the rule change, too, yet the Patriots still fumbled about as frequently as most other teams back then.

 

It was only after the league granted Brady his new rule change that the Pats fumbe numbers dropped- quite literally - off the charts.

 

Bingo. The massive improvement coincides exactly with the time the rule changed which would allow the Patriots to doctor their footballs.

Posted

This would explain some of Belicheck's first press conference. I couldn't understand why he focused on the ball conditions during practice - how he makes they balls so tough to handle and doesn't care how much the players complain. It seemed completely irrelevant to the deflated balls issue. Was he addressing this fumbling rate issue based on some of the NFL's investigation we are not yet aware of, and feedback from some people in the Pats organization they had already interviewed? It all seemed odd, but this would make some sense out of it.

Posted

Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, without a smoking gun the NFL will remain the Pats lap dog. Folks as Bills fans we are use to disappointment. Be assured that the NFL "investigation" will be a disappointment. The only one who looks good in all this is Richard Sherman. The guy had the guts to say what everyone knows but is afraid to say. He will likely be the only on penalized out of all this.

Posted (edited)

If a tree falls down in the forest does it make a sound if no one is there to hear the noise?

 

The balls became under inflated by some means. The Pats have to prove without any reason of doubt that they didn't tamper with the balls and show the NFL repeated examples how it happened under normal circumstances.

Edited by BillsFan-4-Ever
Posted

Great article, thanks. The great thing about numbers and statistics is that they never lie, unlike Tom and Bill.

the crazy thing about stats, is that they often bend the truth.

Posted (edited)

 

Well I guess Peyton Manning cheats too...because 1. Peyton is the one who spear headed this rule change, other QBs including Aaron Rogers have already credited Manning, not Brady, with this change. 2. Manning teams fumble at a comparable rate to Brady led teams.

 

Therefore, Manning also deflates footballs.

 

And the most annoying thing about this study is that it doesn't break down the other 31 teams individually...so its comparing one teams rate with an average of the rest of the league which is stupid and skewed. If you take 32 individuals, then compare the best individual to the average of the other 31, there is going to be a big discreprency, especially if the the lower tier is significantly worse.

 

This study does not show NE as an abnormally because we don't know if any other teams have reasonably similar fumble rates. If 3 teams have a similar fumble rate, then the conclusion that its just the Patriots and must be cheating can't be concluded unless you assume they all cheat. Furthermore, we already know that Peyton led teams fumble at a similar rate a the Pats, in fact the difference is barely noticeable.

Edited by Alphadawg7
Posted

The 'smoking gun' in this analysis is the dramatic improvement in the rate of fumbles after 2007 to present compared to the league average. Prior to 2006, the Pats were right in line with it, afterward they were better by an unbelievable amount. What could possibly account for that improvement? Quite the coincidence....

Posted (edited)

 

Well I guess Peyton Manning cheats too...because 1. Peyton is the one who spear headed this rule change, other QBs including Aaron Rogers have already credited Manning, not Brady, with this change. 2. Manning teams fumble at a comparable rate to Brady led teams.

 

Therefore, Manning also deflates footballs.

 

And the most annoying thing about this study is that it doesn't break down the other 31 teams individually...so its comparing one teams rate with an average of the rest of the league which is stupid and skewed. If you take 32 individuals, then compare the best individual to the average of the other 31, there is going to be a big discreprency, especially if the the lower tier is significantly worse.

 

This study does not show NE as an abnormally because we don't know if any other teams have reasonably similar fumble rates. If 3 teams have a similar fumble rate, then the conclusion that its just the Patriots and must be cheating can't be concluded unless you assume they all cheat. Furthermore, we already know that Peyton led teams fumble at a similar rate a the Pats, in fact the difference is barely noticeable.

 

The first graph shows all the teams. The Y axis represents the teams, "Frequency."

 

Prior to the change, no team was over 56 touches per fumble, after the change no team is over 56 as well, except the Pats, who are at an astounding 74 (which includes all of Peyton's non Colt years). That's a severe outlier in stats terms.

Edited by Mark80
Posted (edited)

I saw another report that put together the similar data

 

its another smoking gun.

Unfortunately it's absolutely not a smoking gun.

 

The ball boy is the only possible smoking gun.

 

This data while arguably indicative of a anomalous pattern, is circumstantial evidence.... It only proves they got better at ball security.

 

It's sort of like accusing OJ of mudering his wife to stop paying alimony, then trying to prove it by showing he no longer is paying alimony.

Edited by over 20 years of fanhood
Posted (edited)

when / how soon before the game do the Refs hand the balls to the team?

 

Are the balls left under supervision while in the care of said ball attendant?

 

Is there a Ref on the sideline monitoring the footballs?

 

Toiletgate is still usable but I'm still leaning at "other"

Edited by BillsFan-4-Ever
Posted

Just change the rule. No team should be allowed to supply the game balls. Let the league/refs handle that. Right before kick off check the PSI and throughout the game randomly sample game balls. What is the odds of 11/12 balls losing over 1 PSI in about 2 hours time simply going from 70 degrees to 20 degrees? I just dont think its possible. Simple physics says the warmer it is the faster air molecules move, this causes the molecules to hit the insides of the ball faster and more frequent thus increasing presssure. When it is cold the molecules will move slower and PSI will decrease some. I just cant see 1 PSI in 2 hours for 11 balls. Werent they all at the same psi too? Whats the odds stat men/women?

Posted

sounds like a good class action lawsuit. Fans against NE and Brady. They have already justified this in there minds. Typical crimanals.

 

That online petition against the Pats is over 60,000 people now. If someone is pissed enough to start an online petition there's probably couple that are pissed/crazy enough to try to sue the Patriots.

Posted

Just change the rule. No team should be allowed to supply the game balls. Let the league/refs handle that. Right before kick off check the PSI and throughout the game randomly sample game balls. What is the odds of 11/12 balls losing over 1 PSI in about 2 hours time simply going from 70 degrees to 20 degrees? I just dont think its possible. Simple physics says the warmer it is the faster air molecules move, this causes the molecules to hit the insides of the ball faster and more frequent thus increasing presssure. When it is cold the molecules will move slower and PSI will decrease some. I just cant see 1 PSI in 2 hours for 11 balls. Werent they all at the same psi too? Whats the odds stat men/women?

I'll reiterate one of my comments. Use new balls and do not let either team scuff, soak or rub the balls before game time

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