QB Bills Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 Not sure points allowed is a better metric. For one, a bad offense can affect that with turnovers and field position. Secondly, yards allowed is a more foundational measuring stick. Can't score points if you don't gain the yards first. It's like saying "if you score more points than the other team, then you'll win". Obviously that's the case, but you have to look at how those points came about. There's no real 100% accurate way to measure this though. But just going by the eye test, the Bills defense last year was right at or near the top of the league.
QB Bills Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 Say what you want about Marrone but the team did have its first winning season in 10 years. You have to give some credit to him. His "horrible" coaching put up 48 and 38 points against our current head coaches team on both occasions last year. The coaching probably wasn't as bad as many people like to think it was around here. The offensive line is still a question mark as we really don't know how much of an upgrade Incognito and Miller are. And with the news on Mckelvin, the secondary has me a bit concerned. With all that said, I think you are right for the most part. I'd be surprised if our offense is "awful". I expect it to be around average. Maybe slightly below but expect this team to be in the playoff hunt throughout the entirety of the season. Ok, what do you give him credit for, specifically? A record is a product of the whole team. What do you think he actually did to help them get to 9 wins? I'm genuinely curious because a lot of people say the same thing you are.
Kelly the Dog Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 (edited) I have no idea what he did secifically to get the team to 9 wins, I wasn't in the locker room, but he was the head coach, don't you think he deserves at least some credit for the teams performance last year? Isn't part of the responsibility of the head coach to get the team ready to play every Sunday? Or do we completely discredit that and give all the credit to Schwartz? Considering that most every player on offense regressed outside of Hogan, and his new stud was totally misused, and the overall concept, game planning, philosophy, personnel decisions, play calling and execution of the offense was extremely mediocre if not downright pitiful, I'd say 80-90 percent was defense and ST and 10-20 percent was offense and Marrone. They won in spite of him more than because of him. Edited August 6, 2015 by Kelly the Dog
reddogblitz Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 Considering that most every player on offense regressed outside of Hogan, and his new stud was totally misused, and the overall concept, game planning, philosophy, personnel decisions, play calling and execution of the offense was extremely mediocre if not downright pitiful, I'd say 80-90 percent was defense and ST and 10-20 percent was offense and Marrone. They won in spite of him more than because of him. While there was a lot of things that I didn't like about Coach Marrone, we did have a winning season for the first time in 10 years, so I give him credit. Just as I give credit to Bill Clinton for a good economy even thoughtthe internet boom bubble was probably really responsible. Just the way it works. Top man gets credit for success and gets skewered for failure.
QB Bills Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 (edited) I have no idea what he did secifically to get the team to 9 wins, I wasn't in the locker room, but he was the head coach, don't you think he deserves at least some credit for the teams performance last year? Isn't part of the responsibility of the head coach to get the team ready to play every Sunday? Or do we completely discredit that and give all the credit to Schwartz? Um, pretty much. This team won 9 games because of the defense. The side of the ball he admittedly had nothing to do with. We'll give him credit for being able to find the stadium and being at every game on time. That's about it. Do you really need to be reminded of the boneheaded in-game decisions? The fact that pretty much nobody had anything good to say about him? Teams can win games without good coaching. Hell, the Cowboys won a Super Bowl once without one (Switzer). Edited August 6, 2015 by QB Bills
Cash Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 Not sure points allowed is a better metric. For one, a bad offense can affect that with turnovers and field position. Secondly, yards allowed is a more foundational measuring stick. Can't score points if you don't gain the yards first. It's like saying "if you score more points than the other team, then you'll win". Obviously that's the case, but you have to look at how those points came about. There's no real 100% accurate way to measure this though. But just going by the eye test, the Bills defense last year was right at or near the top of the league. I tend to agree somewhat with this logic. Points are a little more luck-dependent than yards (particularly yards per play rather than yards per game), and also (I think) more dependent on offense and special teams. The obvious cases are a pick 6 or special teams TD, both of which count against the D but aren't the D's fault. But in general, I would think that an offense that turns the ball over more would lead to more points scored against. With an elite D, maybe it's mostly field goals, but it's still extra points being put up. I also think that an offense with more 3 and outs would lead to more points given up as well, although that's not as clear-cut. My takeaway is that if you look at points allowed, you're sort of begging the question - the top 3 defenses in points allowed are almost guaranteed to have had "safe" QB play, if not "good" QB play. And I think the much more interesting question is: Can you make the playoffs with a great D and a not-good QB, even if that QB isn't taking care of the ball and playing the "game manager" role? From what OP posted, it looks like the answer is yes. At this point in preseason, we are in no way guaranteed "safe" QB play in 2015. I think a lot of posters would gladly take a guarantee of safe QB play even if it also guaranteed no chance of good QB play.
reddogblitz Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 My takeaway is that if you look at points allowed, you're sort of begging the question I disagree. A defense's whole job is to keep the other team from scoring points. You get ZERO points for yards or starting field position etc. If you get into all that you are just turning it into statistical shenanigans. Who cares if a 7-9 team has bad field position if they give up TDs. Maybe according to statistical analysis they're good. So what? For a good D, good starting field position doesn't always translate into points. Just because the offense turns it over doesn't mean the defense is excused for rolling over and giving up a TD. Fewest points = best defense (IMHO)
machine gun kelly Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 Well done PP. I love these posts where you really put a lot of time in the research, so thanks. Go Bills!
Kelly the Dog Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 While there was a lot of things that I didn't like about Coach Marrone, we did have a winning season for the first time in 10 years, so I give him credit. Just as I give credit to Bill Clinton for a good economy even thoughtthe internet boom bubble was probably really responsible. Just the way it works. Top man gets credit for success and gets skewered for failure. That's an incredibly ridiculous blanket statement and totally untrue a decent amount of time.
Formerly Allan in MD Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 Nice work. Now we need is a decent quarterback to surface and bring it all together. One can always hope (and in our case probably pray).
reddogblitz Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 That's an incredibly ridiculous blanket statement and totally untrue a decent amount of time. Ws are the only stat that count in football. Holding the other team to the fewest points possible helps win. Saying that some statistical analysis shows one team is somehow the best D even though said team gives up more points is an incredibly ridiculous statement. Just win baby.
Kelly the Dog Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 Ws are the only stat that count in football. Holding the other team to the fewest points possible helps win. Saying that some statistical analysis shows one team is somehow the best D even though said team gives up more points is an incredibly ridiculous statement. Just win baby. So every year the team with the most wins has the absolute best coach in the game and the team with the least wins has the absolute worst coach in the league. Has nothing to do with players or GMs or contracts or injuries or anything else. Buck totally stops here.
reddogblitz Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 (edited) So every year the team with the most wins has the absolute best coach in the game and the team with the least wins has the absolute worst coach in the league. Has nothing to do with players or GMs or contracts or injuries or anything else. Buck totally stops here. Did I say that? The team that wins the SB has the best TEAM, can we agree on that? That said, coach gets the most credit and deservedly so IMHO. Who is taking the most grief for the way SB XLIX ended? The coach that called a pass instead of a run to Beast Mode, or the WR who got outmuscled for the football by a rookie? Edited August 6, 2015 by reddogblitz
Kelly the Dog Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 Did I say that? The team that wins the SB has the best TEAM, can we agree on that? That said, coach gets the most credit and deservedly so IMHO. Who is taking the most grief for the way SB XLIX ended? The coach that called a pass instead of a run to Beast Mode, or the WR who got outmuscled for the football by a rookie? No, the Seahawks had a better team.
reddogblitz Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 (edited) No, the Seahawks had a better team. LOL The best team gets the most points. There are no style points in football. How else do you judge best team in a game if not by the one that scores the most points? Edited August 6, 2015 by reddogblitz
Kelly the Dog Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 LOL The best team gets the most points. There are no style points in football. How else do you judge best team in a game if not by the one that scores the most points? Ummm... The best team doesn't win every game? There are things in this world called, get this, upsets? Teams lose games outplaying their opponent every week.
reddogblitz Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 Ummm... The best team doesn't win every game? There are things in this world called, get this, upsets? Teams lose games outplaying their opponent every week. In the case of an upset, the upsetter is the best team that day. It's not complicated. If they lost, they got outplayed. It's not complicated.
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 1 of those teams (4%) won the super bowl DILFER!!!!!!
MyDogLuvsPB Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 (edited) 15 years of no playoffs for the bills......at this moment in time I would live with a wildcard loss *1 if it were last season. Heck, I would've considered a 10-6 season w/no playoff berth a huge success! This year, we can't be complacent and hope for postseason we need to make it deep in the tournament. The window is closing people!!! Let us not forget the 1999 Bills who had the best defense overall and it was just wasted. We could've won the Super Bowl IMHO had we made it against the Rams or whoever. Edited August 6, 2015 by MyDogLuvsPB
JESSEFEFFER Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 Disagree on Flacco. He had a better than average year in 2012, then got very, very hot in December when former OC Cam Cameron was fired. I felt that year and also in 2011 Cam Cameron was Flacco's biggest issue. Flacco then went on to beat - Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and finally Colin Kap. I've said it before, I think our ceiling is a first round wild card victory due to the below average QBs, but great defense and stacked roster altogether. Our low is probably around 7 to 8 wins if our offense is awful. Both Flacco and Manning were lights out in the playoffs those years. Especially Flacco. I don't see the comparison at all as we don't have those caliber of QBs on the roster. Flacco had 6 games with a tQBR at <25 in 2012. Eli's tQBR in 2007, his 4th NFL season, was sub 40. Both of these guys were taking alot of heat from their respective fanbase/media as they were far from great for those 16 game regular seasons. Football Outsiders' DVOA had Flacco at 17th and Manning at 34th in those years. They played good enough to get to the playoffs and then they played great when they got there. IMO, they are the best examples for how middling QB play can finish with a big result. By the way, the Giants' and Ravens' defenses were 13th and 19th, respeectively, in the those years by DVOA. So going back to the OP, these defenses were far from top 3 while their QBs were far from top 10. As for the bolded, do you the comparison now? If you believe that you have to have a great QB to win it all, then you just assume that Manning and Flacco must have been great QBs those years. They were not by any measure.
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