PlayoffsPlease Posted August 5, 2015 Posted August 5, 2015 (edited) I think Bills fans generally believe the team has an excellent chance to have a top 3 defense this year. I also think fan consensus is that the Bills are unlikely to have a top 10 QB this year. For this study, I begin with the 2001 season. I define top 10 QBs as the the top 10 highest passer ratings each season. And I am defining top 3 defenses based on yards per played allowed. There is no perfect one stat for QB or for team defense, but those are what I chose as being fairly good. Since the 2001 season there have been 25 teams who had a top 3 defense and did not have a top 10 QB8 of those teams (32%) missed the playoffs. 4 of those teams (16%) lost a wild card game3 of those teams (12%) lost a divisional playoff game7 of those teams (28%) lost a conference championship game2 of those teams (8%) lost the super bowl1 of those teams (4%) won the super bowl Clearly there is a difference between having the 11th best QB and the 32nd best QB.But based on the arbitrary 10th ranked cut off, this century, if you have a top 3 defense you have 40% chance of advancing to the championship game, a 32% chance of finishing out of the playoffs, and a 28% chance of finishing somewhere in between. Edited August 5, 2015 by PlayoffsPlease
PlayoffsPlease Posted August 5, 2015 Author Posted August 5, 2015 68% chance...not bad. not bad at all. Probably higher if the QB is 11th, and probably a lot lower if they are 32nd. And top 3 is a challenge too, but if they get there they have a shot.
GG Posted August 5, 2015 Posted August 5, 2015 68% chance...not bad. not bad at all. Yeah, but 3 of those 8 teams that missed the playoffs were .... Buffalo Bills (including last year). There are odds and there are longer odds.
K D Posted August 5, 2015 Posted August 5, 2015 not good as in 1 out of 100? more like 4 out of 100! so you're saying there's a chance!!! can we create a robo-qb that has Taylor's athleticism, Manuel's size, and Cassel's intelligence? if anyone has the money to do it it's Pegula
Beef Jerky Posted August 5, 2015 Posted August 5, 2015 Bills will have the unquestioned #1 defense in the league and will set some historical record on the way to the Superbowl.
Wazzu Bill Posted August 5, 2015 Posted August 5, 2015 I think we have somewhere around a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Will likely come down to a head-to-head result with another bubble team like the chiefs. If we do make the playoffs, I think we have a chance to beat just about any team and make it to the super bowl. Seeing as we beat the Packers in their prime last year. Let's just hope our week 15 Bills show up and not week 16 Bills
johnwalter Posted August 5, 2015 Posted August 5, 2015 very nice work. would love to see you re-do this analysis to filter results for teams with: top 5 defense (yds/snap) top 10 rushing attack (rush avg) bottom 10 qb (qbr)
JESSEFEFFER Posted August 5, 2015 Posted August 5, 2015 I think of the 2007 Giants and 2012 Ravens as models for what the Bills could be. Manning and Flacco were not good those years but had great playoff runs capped with SB wins. I don't think either of those defenses qualified as a top 3 but they were certainly a strength.
LeGOATski Posted August 5, 2015 Posted August 5, 2015 Yeah, but 3 of those 8 teams that missed the playoffs were .... Buffalo Bills (including last year). There are odds and there are longer odds. So...we're doomed.
Kipers Hair Posted August 5, 2015 Posted August 5, 2015 I think Bills fans generally believe the team has an excellent chance to have a top 3 defense this year. I also think fan consensus is that the Bills are unlikely to have a top 10 QB this year. For this study, I begin with the 2001 season. I define top 10 QBs as the the top 10 highest passer ratings each season. And I am defining top 3 defenses based on yards per played allowed. There is no perfect one stat for QB or for team defense, but those are what I chose as being fairly good. Since the 2001 season there have been 25 teams who had a top 3 defense and did not have a top 10 QB 8 of those teams (32%) missed the playoffs. 4 of those teams (16%) lost a wild card game 3 of those teams (12%) lost a divisional playoff game 7 of those teams (28%) lost a conference championship game 2 of those teams (8%) lost the super bowl 1 of those teams (4%) won the super bowl Clearly there is a difference between having the 11th best QB and the 32nd best QB. But based on the arbitrary 10th ranked cut off, this century, if you have a top 3 defense you have 40% chance of advancing to the championship game, a 32% chance of finishing out of the playoffs, and a 28% chance of finishing somewhere in between. Hey.... This is good analysis... well thought out.
hondo in seattle Posted August 5, 2015 Posted August 5, 2015 Good job, PP. Dispels the myth that you can't win without an elite QB. You can, but the odds may not be great.
GG Posted August 5, 2015 Posted August 5, 2015 So...we're doomed. Of course the flipside is that two teams on that list who did get in and went deep in to the playoffs featured a Rex Ryan defense - Ravens & Jests. So maybe there's hope.
PlayoffsPlease Posted August 6, 2015 Author Posted August 6, 2015 very nice work. would love to see you re-do this analysis to filter results for teams with: top 5 defense (yds/snap) top 10 rushing attack (rush avg) bottom 10 qb (qbr) Another not insignificant factor is the division you play in. Some years 8-8 or even 7-9 teams get in from weak divisions. In a smallish sample size that can distort things.
Buffalo_Stampede Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 How about scoring defense instead. May not change much. But it's more important for a struggling offense to have a defense that doesn't allow points.
Pete Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 What do have for the best defense in all of football, top special teams in the NFL, with mediocre QBing but explosive playmakers at the skill positions?
Buffalo_Stampede Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 What do have for the best defense in all of football, top special teams in the NFL, with mediocre QBing but explosive playmakers at the skill positions?What if you have a top 3 defense and a former pro bowl QB starting for you? I know people don't think much of Cassel but he is very capable of a 90+ rating when things around him are good.
John from Riverside Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 I think Bills fans generally believe the team has an excellent chance to have a top 3 defense this year. I also think fan consensus is that the Bills are unlikely to have a top 10 QB this year. For this study, I begin with the 2001 season. I define top 10 QBs as the the top 10 highest passer ratings each season. And I am defining top 3 defenses based on yards per played allowed. There is no perfect one stat for QB or for team defense, but those are what I chose as being fairly good. Since the 2001 season there have been 25 teams who had a top 3 defense and did not have a top 10 QB 8 of those teams (32%) missed the playoffs. 4 of those teams (16%) lost a wild card game 3 of those teams (12%) lost a divisional playoff game 7 of those teams (28%) lost a conference championship game 2 of those teams (8%) lost the super bowl 1 of those teams (4%) won the super bowl Clearly there is a difference between having the 11th best QB and the 32nd best QB. But based on the arbitrary 10th ranked cut off, this century, if you have a top 3 defense you have 40% chance of advancing to the championship game, a 32% chance of finishing out of the playoffs, and a 28% chance of finishing somewhere in between. 15 years of no playoffs for the bills......at this moment in time I would live with a wildcard loss
Pete Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 What if you have a top 3 defense and a former pro bowl QB starting for you? I know people don't think much of Cassel but he is very capable of a 90+ rating when things around him are good. I hope you are right and I very much like our chances!
Manther Posted August 6, 2015 Posted August 6, 2015 very nice work. would love to see you re-do this analysis to filter results for teams with: top 5 defense (yds/snap) top 10 rushing attack (rush avg) bottom 10 qb (qbr) Interesting, but, I am just guessing the results would be as close as the original filter.
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