Brady 4 game suspension upheld; Will go to court

[Kelly the Dog]

im over arguing the science end as i generally do think the pats were doing it, but doesnt something as simple as the ref possibly being sloppy pulling the gauge out of the worst couple balls potentially explain it in 1 easy package?

 

again, i generally agree (especially on the more likely than not scale) that the pats are guilty here, but in the fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percent discussion, that couldnt be a big part of it?.

The ball taken out of the game was two pounds under. All 11 other balls were various degrees under including one other that was two pounds under. And a few more at a pound and a half. So no, that seems impossible.

[thebandit27]

 

No, they didn't document the PSI before the game started. That's the point. There is no credible baseline. Also, the stats don't add up that after the game the Colts footballs were substantially more deflated than the Patriots. The whole thing reeks.

No, the Colts' footballs were most certainly not more deflated than the Pats*.

 

Read pages 66-70 of the Wells report

[Kelly the Dog]

 

No, they didn't document the PSI before the game started. That's the point. There is no credible baseline. Also, the stats don't add up that after the game the Colts footballs were substantially more deflated than the Patriots. The whole thing reeks.

The pats measured their balls with gauges before the game. Shortly thereafter the officials measures the same balls and got the same results. The Pats said our balls are set at 12.5 and we want them at 12.5. Anderson took them and measured them. 10 were 12.5 and two were a tenth or two under so he put them at 12.5. But the fact he didn't write down 12 12.5s makes the whole science wrong?

[GG]

 

No, they didn't document the PSI before the game started. That's the point. There is no credible baseline. Also, the stats don't add up that after the game the Colts footballs were substantially more deflated than the Patriots. The whole thing reeks.

The half I was referring to read the first half. It doesn't matter that they didn't record the psi before the game as long as the balls were within the allowance

 

So if we apply the same deflation rate to Colts as we saw from the *, then the Colts balls would have been over inflated at the start, which is highly unlikely.

[starrymessenger]

It is the glitter that gets you every time. Stuff hangs around for days!

 

I'm over deflategate and don't even really care what the punishment is. No amount of games is worse than his loss of reputation. If people didn't think he/they cheated before many more do now. That is good enough for me bc that has always been the biggest issue with them for me.

 

That said... As a fan cheating and winning is totally worth it. NE fans don't care one bit that others are mad. They are the defending sb champs and have won 4 over the last so many years. The fans got to experience the joy of winning one and I'm sure that is all most of them care about.

Giselle: "Did you cheat on me?"

Tom: "I don't think so".

Not that we will likely ever know, but the extent of the possible cheating can be an ongoing risk to Brady's reputation. In a worse case scenario, which personally I tend to doubt, where Tom knows that balls are being secreted and deflated and where he rewards his then coconspirators with autographed items, IMO he's just about in Charlie Hustle land.

[section122]

Giselle: "Did you cheat on me?"

Tom: "I don't think so".

Not that we will likely ever know, but the extent of the possible cheating can be an ongoing risk to Brady's reputation. In a worse case scenario, which personally I tend to doubt, where Tom knows that balls are being secreted and deflated and where he rewards his then coconspirators with autographed items, IMO he's just about in Charlie Hustle land.

Just the idea that this would happen and he would have no idea is ridiculous. I'll admit to not completely keeping up with the story. Was the ball boy taking the balls to the bathroom ever debunked or disproven?

[starrymessenger]

Just the idea that this would happen and he would have no idea is ridiculous. I'll admit to not completely keeping up with the story. Was the ball boy taking the balls to the bathroom ever debunked or disproven?

As far as I know there is no doubt that McNally took two bags of balls out of the locker room, which he was not authorized to do, and went into a bathroom with them. But I defer to those who have been following this episode more closely if there is anything to add.

[SRQ_BillsFan]

It's simple, everything the NFL says and the referee says about the balls (and many other things) is a lie or wrong because they couldn't possibly remember. Even though the Pats ball boys said they submitted the balls at 12.5.

 

BTW, I hope the refs remember that Brady et el. Called them liers during the season on those questionable holding and late hit calls.

 

Every possibility suggested by Exponent no matter how extreme is fact and must be taken into account. The same without a doubt is true of Brady as well. The fact that some of his answers seem disingenuous only makes them and his other more harden facts.

 

Because anything else is just flawed.

Edited August 7, 2015 by SRQ_BillsFan

[Pneumonic]

I don't understand the obsession over PSI levels. Even if that is the main arguing point, circumstantially based on the findings it would be more likely than not the balls were tampered. If you want to form a kitchen sink debate by saying because the balls did not get tested in a laboratory setting thus rendering all tests invalid so be it. Let me know how that logic works with the misses if you ever come home smelling like lotion because you were at the strip club. "Honey, it can't be proven beyond a scientific doubt that I smell like a stripper, you're using all of your senses, logic, and reason to form that conclusion but none of those things are infallible in science so why are we arguing?"

 

I would say it's more like you going out to play poker with your buddies and come home smelling of booze and smoke. The missus then assumes you were at the strip club and accuses you so because you smell of booze and smokes. Or some similar storyline

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I would say it's more like you going out to play poker with your buddies and come home smelling of booze and smoke. The missus then assumes you were at the strip club and accuses you so because you smell of booze and smokes. Or some similar storyline

Just to get to the bottom of it because I haven't read it all (I'm sure others haven't either). Do you honestly believe that Brady had NOTHING to do with it or do you just believe that the evidence isn't there to convict?

[4merper4mer]

Giselle: "Did you cheat on me?"

Tom: "I don't think so".

Not that we will likely ever know, but the extent of the possible cheating can be an ongoing risk to Brady's reputation. In a worse case scenario, which personally I tend to doubt, where Tom knows that balls are being secreted and deflated and where he rewards his then coconspirators with autographed items, IMO he's just about in Charlie Hustle land.

 

 

I would say Brady and Rose are completely different. Which is worse? Neither because you can't really compare them except for a few facets. They're just different.

 

Rose's transgression was a big issue which if left unchecked cast a doubt on the integrity of the entire sport. He was in management and manipulated his actions based on personal wants and needs which were illegal. Baseball had had issues with gambling in the past. The rules he broke were well established and completely known by all. Not good. He might use his best pitchers and burn them out when he bet, and rest them when he didn't.

 

Brady didn't do that. There are some similarities in that he was trying to give himself an advantage. Brady's advantage could be repeated over and over unlike Rose's pitching staff. Brady cheated in a brand new way, unlike Rose. Then he acted ignorant. Nice try doofus.

 

I think Brady is worried about his reputation more than anything else. Maybe he should have thought of that before he cheated but I'm sure he though he was all powerful and he'd escape scrutiny. He'll still make the Hall of Fame and of that stuff, but the way he has acted and then the way he has handled the investigation let's the world know he is in fact a cheater. He can never get that back in Canton or anywhere else.

[Pneumonic]

Can’t keep up with all the replies so I’ll just summarize my thoughts with this. I am onto the labour/CBA law component from here on out becasue that;s all that really matters as this movies forward.

 

The fatal fault in all of this is there were no policies and procedures in place to allow for properly conducting any semblance of a valid test; not by the NFL, at the time of testing, nor by any “expert” at any time afterwards.

 

Is not having documented PSI’s concerning? Indeed, unless you think reliance on memory recollection of said “likely” #’s is a satisfactory condition to apply the gas law. But, really, why worry since we don’t even have the known temperature ranges involved. But, we have guessing as an option to give us a needed "likely" outcome!

 

Oh, and just for the halibut, let’s also assume the “likeliest” indoor/outdoor conditions along with the “likeliest” timelines involved after the 2^nd quarter. PV=nRT …. here we come.

 

So, what is an expert like Exponent expected to do with such a situation? That’s easy …. After applying their re-adjustment criteria, they assert that the Patriots footballs at halftime should “likely” have measured between 11.32 and 11.52 PSI. Good thing they went to hundredths accuracy levels.

 

So how “likely” is it that the gauges used in all of this were working properly? Par for the course, we don’t know because …… no testing was done to ensure this as so. We do know that the NFL used 2 gauges at halftime to measure the Pats’ footballs though. We also know that Exponent never compared the 2 gauges’ respective readings against the readjusted acceptable range. They did convert both gauge readings to a single “master” gauge reading in order to provide a direct comparison with the results predicted by the calculations. Now this is a valid and good idea provided …… you have logged and converted dataset readings of the PSI’s pre-game. Ooooppps!

 

Such a dilemma! All we have are the refs best recollection of PSI’s and which gauges were used to measure them. OK, not nearly ideal but perhaps salvageable? Maybe, if we do a bunch of calculations for the combinations of gauges and for all possible error bounds on these “likely” #’s then a propagation of errors study could be used to output some semblance of valid outcome results. I checked all the footnotes but didn’t see such data. My guess is it probably didn’t fit the narrative.

[GG]

I would say it's more like you going out to play poker with your buddies and come home smelling of booze and smoke. The missus then assumes you were at the strip club and accuses you so because you smell of booze and smokes. Or some similar storyline

 

Except that she was at her friends house, and the buddy who you were supposed to be playing poker with, is the friend's husband and he was at home in the basement deflating his weight on the treadmill.

[Pneumonic]

Just to get to the bottom of it because I haven't read it all (I'm sure others haven't either). Do you honestly believe that Brady had NOTHING to do with it or do you just believe that the evidence isn't there to convict?

 

I am more convinced that the science disproves any transgressions happened than I am that any of the circumstantial evidence points to Brady instructing the guys to lower the PSI's below legal limit. With the current info available, If I were a juror I would not convict.

Except that she was at her friends house, and the buddy who you were supposed to be playing poker with, is the friend's husband and he was at home in the basement deflating his weight on the treadmill.

 

Winner!

Edited August 8, 2015 by Pneumonic

[Augie]

I am more convinced that the science disproves any transgressions happened than I am that any of the circumstantial evidence points to Brady instructing the guys to lower the PSI's below legal limit. With the current info available, If I were a juror I would not convict.

 

I think most reasonable people agree that they met the level of proof required by the CBA. That's what counts. It's not a criminal court case.

[MattM]

Can’t keep up with all the replies so I’ll just summarize my thoughts with this. I am onto the labour/CBA law component from here on out becasue that;s all that really matters as this movies forward.

 

The fatal fault in all of this is there were no policies and procedures in place to allow for properly conducting any semblance of a valid test; not by the NFL, at the time of testing, nor by any “expert” at any time afterwards.

 

Is not having documented PSI’s concerning? Indeed, unless you think reliance on memory recollection of said “likely” #’s is a satisfactory condition to apply the gas law. But, really, why worry since we don’t even have the known temperature ranges involved. But, we have guessing as an option to give us a needed "likely" outcome!

 

Oh, and just for the halibut, let’s also assume the “likeliest” indoor/outdoor conditions along with the “likeliest” timelines involved after the 2^nd quarter. PV=nRT …. here we come.

 

So, what is an expert like Exponent expected to do with such a situation? That’s easy …. After applying their re-adjustment criteria, they assert that the Patriots footballs at halftime should “likely” have measured between 11.32 and 11.52 PSI. Good thing they went to hundredths accuracy levels.

 

So how “likely” is it that the gauges used in all of this were working properly? Par for the course, we don’t know because …… no testing was done to ensure this as so. We do know that the NFL used 2 gauges at halftime to measure the Pats’ footballs though. We also know that Exponent never compared the 2 gauges’ respective readings against the readjusted acceptable range. They did convert both gauge readings to a single “master” gauge reading in order to provide a direct comparison with the results predicted by the calculations. Now this is a valid and good idea provided …… you have logged and converted dataset readings of the PSI’s pre-game. Ooooppps!

 

Such a dilemma! All we have are the refs best recollection of PSI’s and which gauges were used to measure them. OK, not nearly ideal but perhaps salvageable? Maybe, if we do a bunch of calculations for the combinations of gauges and for all possible error bounds on these “likely” #’s then a propagation of errors study could be used to output some semblance of valid outcome results. I checked all the footnotes but didn’t see such data. My guess is it probably didn’t fit the narrative.

So you basically ignore the texts, gifts to the ball boy (still waiting for the legion of other ball boys getting new sneaks and Brady game worn autographed jerseys to show up), lies ("I didn't take them into the bathroom---oh, wait, you've got me on film doing that, then I must have gone in to use the urinal--oh, wait, there's no urinal in that bathroom...."), etc., in other words, the context in which the psi measurements need to be considered. I'm also guessing that's because it comes nowhere close to supporting your narrative....

[NoSaint]

So you basically ignore the texts, gifts to the ball boy (still waiting for the legion of other ball boys getting new sneaks and Brady game worn autographed jerseys to show up), lies ("I didn't take them into the bathroom---oh, wait, you've got me on film doing that, then I must have gone in to use the urinal--oh, wait, there's no urinal in that bathroom...."), etc., in other words, the context in which the psi measurements need to be considered. I'm also guessing that's because it comes nowhere close to supporting your narrative....

Come on - I think he did it and I'm nowhere near suspicious of team employees getting kicked presents. Maybe Kirby can chime in on that

[Kelly the Dog]

Come on - I think he did it and I'm nowhere near suspicious of team employees getting kicked presents. Maybe Kirby can chime in on that

Brady said he didn't even know McNally. Never met him, never spoke to him.

[NoSaint]

Brady said he didn't even know McNally. Never met him, never spoke to him.

Simmer down - I didn't imply whether or not he was hand delivering stuff. Just know the few people I have known in under appreciated/undercompensated positions close to the team often got some perks kicked their way. Not sure the standard but a ball boy getting a jersey or some free swag that players don't want doesn't seem out of line like Matt presented it

Edited August 8, 2015 by NoSaint

[Kelly the Dog]

Simmer down - I didn't imply whether or not he was hand delivering stuff. Just know the few people I have known in under appreciated/undercompensated positions close to the team often got some perks kicked their way. Not sure the standard but a ball boy getting a jersey or some free swag that players don't want doesn't seem out of line like Matt presented it

Oh I thought that the kickbacks were a total non-issue and that stuff happens all the time and it's doesn't at all mean or insinuate any guilt or wrongdoing. And I still mostly do. But it became a small factor in the guilt of Brady when it came out in the transcript that he claimed to have never met him and never spoke to him. Why do you give autographed jerseys and perks to someone you don't even know and have never even said one word to. It wasn't like he was saying hey give all these vendor guys a jersey. Or Brady did something nice for the office staff he never met. I would imagine he does stuff like that. But this was specific stuff requested for a specific guy that Brady said he never met and doesn't know. That becomes #62 in the ever expanding list of reasons we know he is lying.