Tired of Deflategate

[Kelly the Dog]

I'm not going to assume the garbage issue is true. I'm willing to admit that I don't know. Do you?

I have no idea. We can assume that it is true and it doesn't make any difference whatsoever.

 

Please think about this for a second. The entire argument is based on a theory of the ideal gas law. That theory allows for balls in those elements to possibly go down in PSI. And the argument is that the Colts balls were in the warm air longer. So they would rise more, which would then show that Patriots balls and Colts balls were all legal before, went a lot lower during the game, but only the Patriots balls were measured lower because they were not given the time to go back up in the warm inside the way the Colts balls were.

 

That is the entire theoretical case.

 

But it's entirely faulty. Because if that were true, the first balls weighed of the Patriots would be the lowest PSI, they were in the warm air the shortest. And the last few Patriot balls would be higher because they were in warm air like the Colts balls were. No one disputes the Colts balls were measured right after the patriots balls.

 

But the OPPOSITE is the case. Balls 9-10-11 were most of the lowest readings not the highest, and 10 was the very lowest. Measured right before the first of the Colts balls. So that entire theory is nonsense. It MAY be looked at different if it followed the opposite way. If the last few Pats balls were the highest PSi because that MAY show that the longer they are in warm air the more they rise, like allegedly the Colts balls showed.

 

But of course they didn't. The opposite is true. In fact, if you believe that the balls rose a lot in the warm air, balls 9-10-11 show the Patriots actually cheated a lot more because they were out in the elements about one psi LESS than they registered below, which was substantial.

[dave mcbride]

I have no idea. We can assume that it is true and it doesn't make any difference whatsoever.

 

Please think about this for a second. The entire argument is based on a theory of the ideal gas law. That theory allows for balls in those elements to possibly go down in PSI. And the argument is that the Colts balls were in the warm air longer. So they would rise more, which would then show that Patriots balls and Colts balls were all legal before, went a lot lower during the game, but only the Patriots balls were measured lower because they were not given the time to go back up in the warm inside the way the Colts balls were.

 

That is the entire theoretical case.

 

But it's entirely faulty. Because if that were true, the first balls weighed of the Patriots would be the lowest PSI, they were in the warm air the shortest. And the last few Patriot balls would be higher because they were in warm air like the Colts balls were. No one disputes the Colts balls were measured right after the patriots balls.

 

But the OPPOSITE is the case. Balls 9-10-11 were most of the lowest readings not the highest, and 10 was the very lowest. Measured right before the first of the Colts balls. So that entire theory is nonsense. It MAY be looked at different if it followed the opposite way. If the last few Pats balls were the highest PSi because that MAY show that the longer they are in warm air the more they rise, like allegedly the Colts balls showed.

 

But of course they didn't. The opposite is true. In fact, if you believe that the balls rose a lot in the warm air, balls 9-10-11 show the Patriots actually cheated a lot more because they were out in the elements about one psi LESS than they registered below, which was substantial.

You see a pattern where I see mostly surface noise: http://www.businessinsider.com/psi-new-england-patriots-deflategate-footballs-2015-5?r=UK. Needless to say, the balls were probably measured quickly in in succession--presumably a few seconds apart because they were presumably lined up in a row. The larger issue is the lapse in time between shifting from the Pats balls to the Colts balls, which presumably was substantial (relative to lapses in time between each Patriots measurement) given that they only had time to measure four of them before the end of the half. Also, which of those balls did the Colts get their hands on prior to the measuring process (i.e., the one Jackson picked off)? Was that a 12th unmeasured ball? I don't recall.

 

Btw, you'll probably write this one off too as the deluded ravings of a Pats fan, but the author of the piece is one of the smartest people I've ever dealt with and justifiably one of the most famous social scientists in the world: http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2015/05/18/deflategate-wells-report-distorts-workplace-realities/gE11ZBlqyIHMqpJ32h06HP/story.html.

[Kelly the Dog]

You see a pattern where I see mostly surface noise: http://www.businessinsider.com/psi-new-england-patriots-deflategate-footballs-2015-5?r=UK. Needless to say, the balls were probably measured quickly in in succession--presumably a few seconds apart because they were presumably lined up in a row. The larger issue is the lapse in time between shifting from the Pats balls to the Colts balls, which presumably was substantial (relative to lapses in time between each Patriots measurement) given that they only had time to measure four of them before the end of the half. Also, which of those balls did the Colts get their hands on prior to the measuring process (i.e., the one Jackson picked off)? Was that a 12th unmeasured ball? I don't recall.

 

Btw, you'll probably write this one off too as the deluded ravings of a Pats fan, but the author of the piece is one of the smartest people I've ever dealt with and justifiably one of the most famous social scientists in the world: http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2015/05/18/deflategate-wells-report-distorts-workplace-realities/gE11ZBlqyIHMqpJ32h06HP/story.html.

 

The 12th ball was the intercepted ball. The Colts say they measured it and it was below 12.5 so that is why they went to the officials. The officials took that ball out of the game, and then weighed the 11 remaining game balls at halftime.

 

The intercepted ball was about 2 pounds under the lowest limit when measured by the NFL officials. You know, the ball they were using in the game at the time. Coincidence, right? There was one other one that was measured two pounds under.

 

"But what has the NFL really found? As one league source has explained it to PFT, the football intercepted by Colts linebacker D’Qwell Jackson was roughly two pounds under the 12.5 PSI minimum. The other 10 balls that reportedly were two pounds under may have been, as the source explained it, closer to one pound below 12.5 PSI."

 

 

The article you linked literally made me laugh outloud. The texts of Jastremski and McNally should just be ignored because they are just two disgruntled employees joking around and exaggerating. That's good stuff.

[The Wiz]

The 12th ball was the intercepted ball. The Colts say they measured it and it was below 12.5 so that is why they went to the officials. The officials took that ball out of the game, and then weighed the 11 remaining game balls at halftime.

 

The intercepted ball was about 2 pounds under the lowest limit when measured by the NFL officials. You know, the ball they were using in the game at the time. Coincidence, right? There was one other one that was measured two pounds under.

 

"But what has the NFL really found? As one league source has explained it to PFT, the football intercepted by Colts linebacker D’Qwell Jackson was roughly two pounds under the 12.5 PSI minimum. The other 10 balls that reportedly were two pounds under may have been, as the source explained it, closer to one pound below 12.5 PSI."

 

 

The article you linked literally made me laugh outloud. The texts of Jastremski and McNally should just be ignored because they are just two disgruntled employees joking around and exaggerating. That's good stuff.

Come on, you've obviously bad mouthed someone who has never met you before.

[Kelly the Dog]

Come on, you've obviously bad mouthed someone who has never met you before.

I do it all the time here!

[dave mcbride]

The 12th ball was the intercepted ball. The Colts say they measured it and it was below 12.5 so that is why they went to the officials. The officials took that ball out of the game, and then weighed the 11 remaining game balls at halftime.

 

The intercepted ball was about 2 pounds under the lowest limit when measured by the NFL officials. You know, the ball they were using in the game at the time. Coincidence, right? There was one other one that was measured two pounds under.

 

"But what has the NFL really found? As one league source has explained it to PFT, the football intercepted by Colts linebacker D’Qwell Jackson was roughly two pounds under the 12.5 PSI minimum. The other 10 balls that reportedly were two pounds under may have been, as the source explained it, closer to one pound below 12.5 PSI."

 

 

The article you linked literally made me laugh outloud. The texts of Jastremski and McNally should just be ignored because they are just two disgruntled employees joking around and exaggerating. That's good stuff.

Laugh away. I can assure you that the author knows more about the American workplace than Wells -- and that she's *significantly* smarter. But her argument cuts against your position about those two, so you dismiss out of hand the possibility that texts produced in our always-on world might be read in the absence of a larger context. We'll see what happens if this ends up in court, as I presume it will if Goodell doesn't change the penalty.

 

As for the Jackson ball, thanks - I had forgotten. One has to presume that the Colts weren't up to any skullduggery, of course, if one is to believe that the ball was 2 psi under before it arrived at the sideline. And one also has to presume that the Irsay-run organization is above reproach, particularly when it was involved in a sting (which it was). Many believe that. I'm not one of them.

Edited July 7, 2015 by dave mcbride

[Kelly the Dog]

Laugh away. I can assure you that the author knows more about the American workplace than Wells -- and that she's *significantly* smarter. But her argument cuts against your position about those two, so you dismiss out of hand the possibility that texts produced in our always-on world might be read in the absence of a larger context. We'll see what happens if this ends up in court, as I presume it will if Goodell doesn't change the penalty.

 

As for the Jackson ball, thanks - I had forgotten. One has to presume that the Colts weren't up to any skullduggery, of course, if one is to believe that the ball was 2 psi under before it arrived at the sideline. And one also has to presume that the Irsay-run organization is above reproach, particularly when it was involved in a sting (which it was). Many believe that. I'm not one of them.

 

Dave, you are one of the smartest and most well read and educated guys on this board. I read that article very carefully. I then reread the actual texts that Jastremski and McNally sent to each other. It is IN-SANE to think that they were just joking, that it had nothing to do with actually deflating balls that Tom Brady had nothing to do with. IN-SANE!

 

And THEN, if we are to believe her, we then have to also believe that JUST BY !@#$KING CHANCE, while they weren't talking about actually deflating balls, all 12 of the balls they were in possession of WERE ACTUALLY DEFLATED. All of them.

 

What a coinkidink!

 

ANd THEN we have to believe when questioned about something McNally just joked about and knew nothing about, McNally gave four different answers about it to four different investigators or security people.

 

And THEN we have to believe that the Patriots didn't really want their employees telling the truth about it, they preferred to keep their honest, if rather jovial employees from answering questions like "Why are you known as The Deflator."

 

And THEN we have to believe that that were just joking around about deflated balls that they didn't have anything to do with but then Tom Brady started calling one of them every day about it. Talking for 15 minutes at a time at 7 am, about something they knew nothing about and had nothing to do with that just happened out of thin air.

 

THEN we have to believe that the NFL commissioned a totally corrupt and delirious bagman, and paid him 5 million dollars, to get a totally corrupt bunch of scientists to do 100 experiments and come to, GET THIS, the same possibility that these two jokers knew nothing about and just joked around about and Tom Brady knew nothing about but went apeschit over, to prove it happened out of thin air.

 

And THEN we have to believe that Robert Kraft just accepted this and took a number one pick and million dollar fine away even though they did nothing because it's best for the league.

 

Jesus Christ.

[eball]

The "twisting of workplace realities" going on in the NFL investigation. Geez. She's trying too hard.

[Doc]

Dave, you are one of the smartest and most well read and educated guys on this board. I read that article very carefully. I then reread the actual texts that Jastremski and McNally sent to each other. It is IN-SANE to think that they were just joking, that it had nothing to do with actually deflating balls that Tom Brady had nothing to do with. IN-SANE!

 

And THEN, if we are to believe her, we then have to also believe that JUST BY !@#$KING CHANCE, while they weren't talking about actually deflating balls, all 12 of the balls they were in possession of WERE ACTUALLY DEFLATED. All of them.

 

What a coinkidink!

 

ANd THEN we have to believe when questioned about something McNally just joked about and knew nothing about, McNally gave four different answers about it to four different investigators or security people.

 

And THEN we have to believe that the Patriots didn't really want their employees telling the truth about it, they preferred to keep their honest, if rather jovial employees from answering questions like "Why are you known as The Deflator."

 

And THEN we have to believe that that were just joking around about deflated balls that they didn't have anything to do with but then Tom Brady started calling one of them every day about it. Talking for 15 minutes at a time at 7 am, about something they knew nothing about and had nothing to do with that just happened out of thin air.

 

THEN we have to believe that the NFL commissioned a totally corrupt and delirious bagman, and paid him 5 million dollars, to get a totally corrupt bunch of scientists to do 100 experiments and come to, GET THIS, the same possibility that these two jokers knew nothing about and just joked around about and Tom Brady knew nothing about but went apeschit over, to prove it happened out of thin air.

 

And THEN we have to believe that Robert Kraft just accepted this and took a number one pick and million dollar fine away even though they did nothing because it's best for the league.

 

Jesus Christ.

You forgot to add a few more "THEN we have to believe"s, but pretty good job.

[Kelly the Dog]

You forgot to add a few more "THEN we have to believe"s, but pretty good job.

There was one big one I forgot...

 

THEN we have to believe just by coincidence McNally stole all the balls and took them to a restroom right before the game, which he is never allowed to do without asking and without an official going with him.

[dave mcbride]

Dave, you are one of the smartest and most well read and educated guys on this board. I read that article very carefully. I then reread the actual texts that Jastremski and McNally sent to each other. It is IN-SANE to think that they were just joking, that it had nothing to do with actually deflating balls that Tom Brady had nothing to do with. IN-SANE!

 

And THEN, if we are to believe her, we then have to also believe that JUST BY !@#$KING CHANCE, while they weren't talking about actually deflating balls, all 12 of the balls they were in possession of WERE ACTUALLY DEFLATED. All of them.

 

What a coinkidink!

 

ANd THEN we have to believe when questioned about something McNally just joked about and knew nothing about, McNally gave four different answers about it to four different investigators or security people.

 

And THEN we have to believe that the Patriots didn't really want their employees telling the truth about it, they preferred to keep their honest, if rather jovial employees from answering questions like "Why are you known as The Deflator."

 

And THEN we have to believe that that were just joking around about deflated balls that they didn't have anything to do with but then Tom Brady started calling one of them every day about it. Talking for 15 minutes at a time at 7 am, about something they knew nothing about and had nothing to do with that just happened out of thin air.

 

THEN we have to believe that the NFL commissioned a totally corrupt and delirious bagman, and paid him 5 million dollars, to get a totally corrupt bunch of scientists to do 100 experiments and come to, GET THIS, the same possibility that these two jokers knew nothing about and just joked around about and Tom Brady knew nothing about but went apeschit over, to prove it happened out of thin air.

 

And THEN we have to believe that Robert Kraft just accepted this and took a number one pick and million dollar fine away even though they did nothing because it's best for the league.

 

Jesus Christ.

We will find out soon enough, right? If it doesn't go well for Brady, then he has to decide if he'll take this to court. If he does, then we'll find out a lot more about those two guys. They may not be innocent at all, but people do in fact blow off steam on email/texts about their bosses all of the time. It's not smart to do that, but people do it anyway. Anyway, I think he definitely goes to court; you don't think he will. The problem for the league is the evidence against *Brady* in the Wells report is truly shaky (there's NOTHING that pins him in that report). Maybe if he goes to court he gets nailed based on the introduction of stronger evidence than what is in the report, and maybe he doesn't go because he's guilty and fearful he'll get nailed. But if he goes, we'll have to rethink our presumptions about all of this.

 

But I can also easily see the penalty being significantly reduced too. If that happens, I don't have any idea what will happen.

[eball]

We will find out soon enough, right? If it doesn't go well for Brady, then he has to decide if he'll take this to court. If he does, then we'll find out a lot more about those two guys. They may not be innocent at all, but people do in fact blow off steam on email/texts about their bosses all of the time. It's not smart to do that, but people do it anyway. Anyway, I think he definitely goes to court; you don't think he will. The problem for the league is the evidence against *Brady* in the Wells report is truly shaky (there's NOTHING that pins him in that report). Maybe if he goes to court he gets nailed based on the introduction of stronger evidence than what is in the report, and maybe he doesn't go because he's guilty and fearful he'll get nailed. But if he goes, we'll have to rethink our presumptions about all of this.

 

But I can also easily see the penalty being significantly reduced too. If that happens, I don't have any idea what will happen.

 

I feel like I'm beating my head against a wall. A court isn't going to hear this based upon how strong the evidence is (or isn't) -- the court would only be ruling on whether the process was flawed or Goodell made an obvious mistake in his ruling. Circumstantial evidence is perfectly acceptable, and there's plenty of that (along with Brady*'s refusal to cooperate).

 

Goodell may still reduce the suspension out of the goodness of his heart (i.e., payback to Kraft for bowing on the Pats** penalties), but I don't think he'll do it out of the fear of litigation -- at least he shouldn't.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

I feel like I'm beating my head against a wall. A court isn't going to hear this based upon how strong the evidence is (or isn't) -- the court would only be ruling on whether the process was flawed or Goodell made an obvious mistake in his ruling. Circumstantial evidence is perfectly acceptable, and there's plenty of that (along with Brady*'s refusal to cooperate).

 

Goodell may still reduce the suspension out of the goodness of his heart (i.e., payback to Kraft for bowing on the Pats** penalties), but I don't think he'll do it out of the fear of litigation -- at least he shouldn't.

Yep. He would have to challenge the whole NFL and how they do business just to prove he was guilty. There isn't a chance he goes to court in a way you explained where evidence could be brought up. He has very little to go on in court the other way, that the penalties were outrageous. They were two basically games each for cheating and obstructing.

 

It's possible it will be reduced to two simply if Goodell THINKS it's best for the league. I don't know why he would but he acts erratically. There is no good reason for him to cave at all.

[dave mcbride]

 

I feel like I'm beating my head against a wall. A court isn't going to hear this based upon how strong the evidence is (or isn't) -- the court would only be ruling on whether the process was flawed or Goodell made an obvious mistake in his ruling. Circumstantial evidence is perfectly acceptable, and there's plenty of that (along with Brady*'s refusal to cooperate).

 

Goodell may still reduce the suspension out of the goodness of his heart (i.e., payback to Kraft for bowing on the Pats** penalties), but I don't think he'll do it out of the fear of litigation -- at least he shouldn't.

Circumstantial evidence isn't acceptable when it is shaky and easy to raise doubts about, even in civil court, so I certainly disagree with you there. Battles about evidence are what animate civil court cases, after all, and what can and can't be included in such cases are what lawyers usually fight about. As is probably clear by now, I don't think the evidence currently on offer is particularly compelling, but the introduction of new evidence that more decisively nails Brady could well change the equation. Outside of hardcore fans of teams that are rivals of the Pats (the rest of the AFC East, the Colts, the Steelers), my sense is that most people who have been following this don't think that the Wells report is much more than a prosecutorial brief.

[eball]

Circumstantial evidence isn't acceptable when it is shaky and easy to raise doubts about, even in civil court, so I certainly disagree with you there. Battles about evidence are what animate civil court cases, after all, and what can and can't be included in such cases are what lawyers usually fight about. As is probably clear by now, I don't think the evidence currently on offer is particularly compelling, but the introduction of new evidence that more decisively nails Brady could well change the equation. Outside of hardcore fans of teams that are rivals of the Pats (the rest of the AFC East, the Colts, the Steelers), my sense is that most people who have been following this don't think that the Wells report is much more than a prosecutorial brief.

 

The weight of circumstantial evidence is what the trier of fact determines -- in this case, Goodell. If he believes it is more likely than not that Brady* knew and directed the scheme, that's enough. The time for Brady* to prevent evidence exonerating himself is long gone. The evidence ship has sailed.

[dave mcbride]

 

The weight of circumstantial evidence is what the trier of fact determines -- in this case, Goodell. If he believes it is more likely than not that Brady* knew and directed the scheme, that's enough. The time for Brady* to prevent evidence exonerating himself is long gone. The evidence ship has sailed.

But there's the rub - the case against the league will be that a) Goodell should have been disqualified as the ultimate judge (i.e., he shouldn't be allowed to play judge, jury, and executioner) and b) we can see why because he misjudged circumstantial evidence (and they'll have a case there barring new evidence that implicates Brady). Whether that wins or not I don't know, but the league's record in these types of cases is quite poor.

Yep. He would have to challenge the whole NFL and how they do business just to prove he was guilty. There isn't a chance he goes to court in a way you explained where evidence could be brought up. He has very little to go on in court the other way, that the penalties were outrageous. They were two basically games each for cheating and obstructing.

 

It's possible it will be reduced to two simply if Goodell THINKS it's best for the league. I don't know why he would but he acts erratically. There is no good reason for him to cave at all.

Well, he might reduce it because it's ridiculously punitive. THAT is something I have a strong opinion about. In no other league is a player penalized so harshly for such a penny ante equipment violation.

Edited July 7, 2015 by dave mcbride

[GG]

But there's the rub - the case against the league will be that a) Goodell should have been disqualified as the ultimate judge (i.e., he shouldn't be allowed to play judge, jury, and executioner) and b) we can see why because he misjudged circumstantial evidence (and they'll have a case there barring new evidence that implicates Brady). Whether that wins or not I don't know, but the league's record in these types of cases is quite poor.

 

But at the end of the day it will be a pyrrhic victory for Brady if he takes it to court and eventually prevails. He will never regain credibility with fans outside the New England. Also in the process of filing the lawsuit, he will paint the officials in a very bad light, which means he will no longer get a roughing the passer call when Jerry Hughes accidentally walks by him. I imagine there will be a tad more contact allowed by defenses.

[Doc]

But there's the rub - the case against the league will be that a) Goodell should have been disqualified as the ultimate judge (i.e., he shouldn't be allowed to play judge, jury, and executioner) and b) we can see why because he misjudged circumstantial evidence (and they'll have a case there barring new evidence that implicates Brady). Whether that wins or not I don't know, but the league's record in these types of cases is quite poor.

Well, he might reduce it because it's ridiculously punitive. THAT is something I have a strong opinion about. In no other league is a player penalized so harshly for such a penny ante equipment violation.

It's far from "ridiculously punitive" and to me looks like a compromise (i.e. what he would have gotten had RG suspended him longer and then reduced it) He should get 2 games at least for refusing to cooperate. Beyond that, there's enough reason to believe he knew the balls were deflated, or at the least, should have known.

[dave mcbride]

 

But at the end of the day it will be a pyrrhic victory for Brady if he takes it to court and eventually prevails. He will never regain credibility with fans outside the New England. Also in the process of filing the lawsuit, he will paint the officials in a very bad light, which means he will no longer get a roughing the passer call when Jerry Hughes accidentally walks by him. I imagine there will be a tad more contact allowed by defenses.

LOL!

It's far from "ridiculously punitive" and to me looks like a compromise (i.e. what he would have gotten had RG suspended him longer and then reduced it) He should get 2 games at least for refusing to cooperate. Beyond that, there's enough reason to believe he knew the balls were deflated, or at the least, should have known.

I suggest looking up the penalties for the following:

 

overcurved stick in the NHL.

 

Oversized pads in the NHL.

 

ball doctoring by pitchers in MLB.

 

corked bat in MLB.

 

For all of those violations - of which are essentially the same as what Brady is accused of doing - the penalties are very small: 1-2 games after your second violation in the NHL and 7-8 games in MLB (less than 5 percent of the season). Brady was banned for 25 percent of the season.

[Kelly the Dog]

But there's the rub - the case against the league will be that a) Goodell should have been disqualified as the ultimate judge (i.e., he shouldn't be allowed to play judge, jury, and executioner) and b) we can see why because he misjudged circumstantial evidence (and they'll have a case there barring new evidence that implicates Brady). Whether that wins or not I don't know, but the league's record in these types of cases is quite poor.

 

Well, he might reduce it because it's ridiculously punitive. THAT is something I have a strong opinion about. In no other league is a player penalized so harshly for such a penny ante equipment violation.

He orchestrated a plan to blatantly steal the balls and alter them in a championship game, then completely denied it and lied about it so much that two longtime employees who helped him lost their jobs. If you believe there is any chance they did this completely on their own I don't know what to say.