Shady trade will really set this team back

[YoloinOhio]

I have not read all of the posts in this thread, but, as I previously commented:

 

At the end of the day, I will evaluate this trade by comparing:

 

Shady and his cap hit and performance v. Kiko and CJ and their lower collective cap hit and their performance.

i remember you saying this before, and I still don't get it. CJ's performance this year would in a drastically different offensive situation than he had/would have had we paid him instead. How does that logically fit in to evaluating the trade of Kiko for McCoy?

[nucci]

i remember you saying this before, and I still don't get it. CJ's performance this year would in a drastically different offensive situation than he had/would have had we paid him instead. How does that logically fit in to evaluating the trade of Kiko for McCoy?

You should know better. Logic does not prevail here.

[Peter]

i remember you saying this before, and I still don't get it. CJ's performance this year would in a drastically different offensive situation than he had/would have had we paid him instead. How does that logically fit in to evaluating the trade of Kiko for McCoy?

So will the Bills offensive situation from new guards, new coaches, and new offensive scheme -- for the better.

 

Yet, even though the Bills interior line has been horrendous the past few years, that never stopped any of CJ's detractors from being critical.

 

In any event, I think CJ will do well for NO. I also think he would have done well for us. I also think that I would rather have two (CJ and Kiko) for the price of (less than) one - Shady. Time will tell. We shall see as the season progresses.

[YoloinOhio]

So will the Bills offensive situation from new guards, new coaches, and new offensive scheme -- for the better.

 

Yet, even though the Bills interior line has been horrendous the past few years, that never stopped any of CJ's detractors from being critical.

 

In any event, I think CJ will do well for NO. I also think he would have done well for us. I also think that I would rather have two (CJ and Kiko) for the price of (less than) one - Shady. Time will tell. We shall see as the season progresses.

i am not really a CJ detractor. But even with the new coaches and upgraded OL, the QB situation could not be more different between buffalo and NO. And playing defenses that need to respect the passing game like they do with Brees is a huge difference for a RB who makes his living in space.

[hondo in seattle]

I get the basic argument that Kiko was good value while Shady is not. Shady is a premium player at a premium price. A NFL team has to limit how many premium priced players they have. You want value - for example like the Seahawks have with Russel Wilson who has been terribly underpaid for his level of contribution.

 

Nonetheless, Whaley had few options. We don't have a franchise QB and none were available. Well, if you can't pass, you need to be able to run. If you don't have a franchise QB, you must have a franchise RB if you expect to compete.

[Kirby Jackson]

I get the basic argument that Kiko was good value while Shady is not. Shady is a premium player at a premium price. A NFL team has to limit how many premium priced players they have. You want value - for example like the Seahawks have with Russel Wilson who has been terribly underpaid for his level of contribution.

 

Nonetheless, Whaley had few options. We don't have a franchise QB and none were available. Well, if you can't pass, you need to be able to run. If you don't have a franchise QB, you must have a franchise RB if you expect to compete.

I think that this is a good thought process. I'd point to the 2012 Vikings as an example. Edited July 24, 2015 by Kirby Jackson

[Peter]

i am not really a CJ detractor. But even with the new coaches and upgraded OL, the QB situation could not be more different between buffalo and NO. And playing defenses that need to respect the passing game like they do with Brees is a huge difference for a RB who makes his living in space.

Of course every situation is different. That does not mean that we cannot try to make our own evaluations (right or wrong). Players are compared all the time - especially on this board. I also have read people on this board make criticisms on this board that state or would suggest that CJ is not a quality NFL back. CJ is going to be playing for another NFL team. We shall see whether they are correct.

 

We also will see what kind of production he will have and can look back at the end of the season and ask ourselves whether would have been better off with Kiko and CJ (at their lower collective cap hit) or Shady and his higher cap hit. I also will be asking that question when we are trying to re-sign Marcell, Cordy, Stephon, and Nigel.

 

Just my two cents.

[YoloinOhio]

Of course every situation is different. That does not mean that we cannot try to make our own evaluations (right or wrong). Players are compared all the time - especially on this board. I also have read people on this board make criticisms on this board that state or would suggest that CJ is not a quality NFL back. CJ is going to be playing for another NFL team. We shall see whether they are correct.

 

We also will see what kind of production he will have and can look back at the end of the season and ask ourselves whether would have been better off with Kiko and CJ (at their lower collective cap hit) or Shady and his higher cap hit. I also will be asking that question when we are trying to re-sign Marcell, Cordy, Stephon, and Nigel.

 

Just my two cents.

i am sure that players are compared all the time here out of different systems but I just can't get there. Of course you are entitled to your own evaluation, but I was just seeking to understand what I do not understand There is no 'right' or 'wrong' for me, I just didn't get it.

 

For me, I will evaluate on wins and losses. It may seem overly simple but it's all I really care about. I don't care about stats or how much money each guy makes. I just don't.

Edited July 24, 2015 by YoloinOhio

[eball]

Yeah, the "this guy makes too much" arguments don't make sense to me as long as the team is able to do what they want to do with respect to personnel.

 

I feel the Bills are very fortunate to have a cap guru like Overdorf.

[Pete]

Not only do you have a great name and great taste with respect to EPL teams, you are correct in what you say above.

right back at you

would have

thank you. It's nice to know there are still grammar nazis.

[machine gun kelly]

Just go with it....

 

Don't you know when you are trying to prove a point on this site you create numbers to support your point? I saw the other day that the Bills used to let "99% of their good free agents go." I was really surprised to read that stat.

I think that number is low KJ,

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

any rookie RB they could have gotten in the 2nd round wouldn't scare any defense - and unfortunately they need that element to somewhat open up the passing game with the QB situation. No one is stacking the box for a rookie not named Gurley or maybe Gordon, and rookie RBs rarely have the hang of effective pass blocking out of the gate.

 

This

[BADOLBILZ]

I still wish we would of kept Kiko, resigned CJ, and been in a much better cap situation. But I am hoping Shady can prove me wrong. I think CJ is going to have a great season in New Orleans. It will be interesting which back has a better year

Should have offered much less than Kiko Alonso if they wanted McCoy. McCoy was either going to be traded or cut. I can think of no other team in the NFL that would have traded anything for him given his contract status, high mileage and "complicated" personality.

 

So basically they traded an outstanding young LB with multiple years of club control left for....negotiating rights. Not a good deal.

 

As for Spiller.....his lack of intelligence will always restrict his production.

 

When an off-field dunce like Travis Henry lined up in the backfield he could process the playcall, review the defensive formation and have a really good idea where the daylight was going to be. It's not that hard. But CJ has shown time and time again that he can't do that. He often inexplicably runs to darkness, doesn't follow blocks or wait for them to develop......and that's to say nothing of his lack of nuance in the passing game.

 

Factor in his inability to stay on the field.....whether it is his perplexing shortness of breath episodes or his tendency to get nicked up.....and I think it's safe to assume he still isn't going to become anything resembling an elite RB even with an Elite QB and Elite play caller supporting him.

[BuffaloBillsForever]

With the McCoy trade I think of Jose Reyes for some reason.

[NoSaint]

Yeah, the "this guy makes too much" arguments don't make sense to me as long as the team is able to do what they want to do with respect to personnel.

 

I feel the Bills are very fortunate to have a cap guru like Overdorf.

Nothing he's done has proven guru-esque yet. He's simply using the techniques everyone else does. Though I'm optimistic it should work out well.

[BarleyNY]

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/cap-hit/tight-end/

 

He's also 15th for cap hit among tight ends on otc:

 

http://overthecap.com/position/tight-end/2015/

 

He's 4th on overall contract, and why in the world should we care? I understand why we, as fans, should care about the cap, as it affects how we get other players. However, what does it matter to us, when and how he gets his money -- Pegula is the 4th richest owner in the league. Enjoy it.

 

For the record, otc & sportrac now both have Clay listed as the #1 hit in 2016 (it was listed around 15 before), but I've heard there were plans to renegotiate in any case. If not, ok, that's too much, but chances are -- like Suh's hasty 28m hit for the Fins in '16, it will likely indeed be renegotiated.

What matters is not a single year cap hit as teams can easily manipulate any given year in order to create or use up space (thus creating some in future years). What matters are the years a player is likely to see which on long term deals are generally 3-4 years depending upon guaranteed money. Both players have enough guaranteed money that they'll be here 4 years and neither have a balloon salary in a later year that would force a cut or new deal.

 

Harvin's contract, for example, is a one year, $6M deal disguised as a three year, $24M deal so that $2M of cap space can be deferred to next season (and so Harvin's agent can tout a bigger dollar deal). Clay has a low cap hit so that the team could save cap space this season, but he . The team will change his big $10M roster bonus due next offseason to a signing bonus to spread it out. It was done that way to prevent Miami from matching and to protect the team in the event of something catastrophic happening with Clay. Looking at the important parts of his contract, he's being paid as a difference making TE, and he's fourth among TEs.

 

Suh is being paid crazy money. His contract is insane for a non-QB and I fear it might result in Dareus getting some crazy offers in FA, which the Bills won't be able to match due to the deals they gave Clay and Shady. In fact, I fear those deals are what is preventing the Bills from extending Dareus now.

[eball]

Nothing he's done has proven guru-esque yet. He's simply using the techniques everyone else does. Though I'm optimistic it should work out well.

 

I'm not so sure...if I recall he was given high marks for the way some recent contracts have been structured. The Bills are in one of the best cap situations in the league because of how they have worked their deals.

[NoSaint]

 

I'm not so sure...if I recall he was given high marks for the way some recent contracts have been structured. The Bills are in one of the best cap situations in the league because of how they have worked their deals.

It's not magic. It's just shifting dollars down the line. things like clays 2nd year bonus have been standard operating procedure for other teams (see saints with a ton of contracts, suh in Miami, etc....). I'm excited were finally pushing the limits but until he shows he can effectively cycle these deals for a few years it's hard to say he's a guru. I like where we are but there's still a touch of "show me"

 

A big part of why we are in a great spot is the last several years we've been pretty conservative. Now it's time to manage these deals going on the books that are higher maintenance.

Edited July 25, 2015 by NoSaint

[ExWNYer]

the more i look at the future we face regarding cuts etc, the more the mccoy trade looks like a horrible move, not due to talent or ability etc, but from a roster and financial standpoint.

 

1. after we complained for years about our tackle position, as well as our corners, looks like we will have to cut either glenn or gilmore. ok maybe its mckelvin or maybe its bradham after already losing kiko, or cutting fred early or shudder maybe even Mario.

 

2. We traded a low-cost fan favorite linebacker for a 16 milllion dollar RB right before we have to resign 4 starters. And didnt we try the premier running back route for the last 15 years? How far did we get with Antowain, Mcgahee, Lynch or Spiller??? the most productive runner we had was 2nd rounder travis henry anyway. So now instead of drafting RB in the first, we trade a 2nd, and will lose one of our 1sts (gilmore dareus or glenn) next year, all for the joy of having a top tier running back in his 6th year.

 

3. We finally have 5 high talent receiving options, both tackles solidified, and weak guards, so we decide on a run first offense? things got worse not better when we spent a 5th on carlos williams. this would have worked out fine if we hadnt gotten shady. But now it forces a cut of either fred or brown and if its brown, it means we wasted a 4rth and will never know what brown could have done here. If its fred, we lose fred, nuff said.

 

we overstocked at a position we really didnt need and by next year,in the end it will end up costing us a 1st, 2nd, and 4rth round pick.

the combination will be either...

 

Kiko, fred, & gilmore or....

kiko, brown, & glenn

or possibly even a....

kiko, mckelvin, bradham and Fred combination

or maybe we just lose Mario

 

either way, it was a bad move.

 

Go Bills!

 

belinda...

 

 

Just go with it....

 

Don't you know when you are trying to prove a point on this site you create numbers to support your point? I saw the other day that the Bills used to let "99% of their good free agents go." I was really surprised to read that stat.

Actually...it's 99.9%, but let's keep that between you and me.

I read that 87% of the stats used on this board are pulled out of thin air.

 

Or, maybe I wrote that....

That 87% number is only accurate 63.5 % of the time.

I think it's closer to 99%. It's true, I just read it on the internet. Oh wait, that was after I wrote it. This is a ridiculous thread. As a GM you make that trade 100% of the time. It's a complete no brainer.

 

http://www.filmsite.org/wavfiles/nakedgun2.wav

[klos63]

right back at you

thank you. It's nice to know there are still grammar nazis.

Not sure that nazi is the appropriate term here... or anywhere, unless you are referring to actual nazis