Shady trade will really set this team back

[Justice]

You guys got me. The cap matters, but I'm sure we all can agree the problems can be pushed forward a few years by restructuring contracts.

[NoSaint]

I beg to differ because just after the Bills signed Harvin at 6 mill per Whaley stated the Bills were done signing free agents.

 

After signing Harvin his words,

 

To put it bluntly, everybodys celebrating our victories, but weve had some losses in this free agency period and it happened to be on the offensive line, General Manager Doug Whaley said Tuesday during the NFL meeting here."

 

"At only $5.28 million under the NFL salary cap, the Bills dont have any room left for more major acquisitions."

 

Were tapped out, Whaley said. Were at the point now where weve got to save cap space for the draft choices and for injury replacements next year. So anything we do from now on will basically be minimum salaried guys."

 

http://bills.buffalonews.com/2015/03/24/whaley-offensive-line-a-loss-in-otherwise-winning-offseason-for-bills/

 

Had the Bills not signed Harvin for that 6 mill I would think that Whaley would have continued looking for upgrades at RT & RG. After all it was clearly the weakest area of the team last year, and OT Brian Bulaga / OG Jhari Evans would have been known solid huge upgrades.

One was never a free agent and the other we allegedly offered more than the team he resigned with

[thurst44]

Clay and Shady are both 4th highest paid at their respective positions according to OTC:

 

http://overthecap.com/position/running-back/

 

A case certainly can be made for Shady that his is market value, but I'm not a proponent of paying RBs those kinds of deals and that contract isn't all it took to get him. What the Bills traded away for him is part of his cost and I hate losing Kiko (who is inexpensive).

 

I can't imagine anyone making a good argument that Clay is close to top 4 at the TE position.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/cap-hit/tight-end/

 

He's also 15th for cap hit among tight ends on otc:

 

http://overthecap.com/position/tight-end/2015/

 

He's 4th on overall contract, and why in the world should we care? I understand why we, as fans, should care about the cap, as it affects how we get other players. However, what does it matter to us, when and how he gets his money -- Pegula is the 4th richest owner in the league. Enjoy it.

 

For the record, otc & sportrac now both have Clay listed as the #1 hit in 2016 (it was listed around 15 before), but I've heard there were plans to renegotiate in any case. If not, ok, that's too much, but chances are -- like Suh's hasty 28m hit for the Fins in '16, it will likely indeed be renegotiated.

[Kirby Jackson]

I beg to differ because just after the Bills signed Harvin at 6 mill per Whaley stated the Bills were done signing free agents.

 

After signing Harvin his words,

 

To put it bluntly, everybodys celebrating our victories, but weve had some losses in this free agency period and it happened to be on the offensive line, General Manager Doug Whaley said Tuesday during the NFL meeting here."

 

"At only $5.28 million under the NFL salary cap, the Bills dont have any room left for more major acquisitions."

 

Were tapped out, Whaley said. Were at the point now where weve got to save cap space for the draft choices and for injury replacements next year. So anything we do from now on will basically be minimum salaried guys."

 

http://bills.buffalonews.com/2015/03/24/whaley-offensive-line-a-loss-in-otherwise-winning-offseason-for-bills/

 

Had the Bills not signed Harvin for that 6 mill I would think that Whaley would have continued looking for upgrades at RT & RG. After all it was clearly the weakest area of the team last year, and OT Brian Bulaga / OG Jhari Evans would have been known solid huge upgrades.

Both of whom the Bills wanted and both of whom remained with their current teams. Those guys 100% were not options.

[rolly]

Have you seen the Cowboys RBs for this season?

I'll bet they are just fine with a great line ahead of them. Same could be said for ravens, patriots etc. Justin forsett, Blount

[SCD]

My debate instructor taught me that exaggeration is a tool of the unarmed in battle of wits.

Yea, but he was like a thousand years old.

[YoloinOhio]

I'll bet they are just fine with a great line ahead of them. Same could be said for ravens, patriots etc. Justin forsett, Blount

of course, they all have legit passing threats to open up the lanes too. That's why the Cowboys didn't pony up for Murray...

[rolly]

of course, they all have legit passing threats to open up the lanes too. That's why the Cowboys didn't pony up for Murray...

That's fair. I'll just never be able to justify paying top dollar for a rb. They also could've drafted a RB in the second round and plugged him in like a handful of teams do each year. I get there's no QBs out there, but I'd rather spend shady money to make a great o-line. I understand they went after some guys in FA, but without the McCoy investment they would've had the cash to land them I bet.

[BUFFALOTONE]

 

It's very likely that all of Harvin/Cassel/Fred will be gone next year. I found that Spotrac is usually pretty accurate for cap functions; have a look at this:

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2016/

 

Kyle Williams will retire a Bill. That guy does not get enough credit. He's an absolute stud.

 

If we assume a cap of $150M and neglect rollover space, Harvin's contract voiding will leave the team approximately $3M under the cap. Here's what I'm thinking as far as creating cap space:

 

Cuts

McKelvin (saves $3.9M)

C. Williams (saves $1.9M)

Lawson (saves $2.75M)

Urbik (saves $1.7M)

Kyle Williams (saves $5M)

 

That brings the cap room up to $18.25M

 

New Deals

Mario gets a new 4-year, $64M contract with $32M guaranteed, and a massive base salary in year 4. Assume this drops his cap number to ~$11M (I've posted the math on it previously)--saves $8.9M

Gilmore gets a new 5-year, $60M deal with $28M guaranteed. Assume a cap hit of around $8M for the first year, and approx. $10M for the next 3 thereafter--saves $3M

 

That gets the team up to ~$30.15M in cap space, without touching Charles Clay's deal (which I'll assume they won't do).

 

If Dareus gets a Suh-type deal (and he should IMO), it could be structured similar to the way that Houston did JJ Watt's contract, with a low signing bonus, but a boatload of small guarantees throughout in order to keep the cap hit fairly steady:

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/j.j.-watt/

 

So let's assume an annual cap it of around $14M for the first 3 years. That brings the team's cap space down to $16M, approximately $5M of which needs to go to draft picks.

 

So we're left with $11M in cap space to figure out Bradham and Glenn. It's possible that they may have to lose one of them, but I wouldn't say it's a certainty.

[Beef Jerky]

That is why you draft well... Dear god, the op and people like him forget you always have a chance as long as you draft well.

 

They just moan about crap without letting themselves learn you can replace talent. This is how you keep good teams... But keep going OP b.c I am sure you know better then everyone by forgetting half of what is important.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Beef Jerky

[YoloinOhio]

That's fair. I'll just never be able to justify paying top dollar for a rb. They also could've drafted a RB in the second round and plugged him in like a handful of teams do each year. I get there's no QBs out there, but I'd rather spend shady money to make a great o-line. I understand they went after some guys in FA, but without the McCoy investment they would've had the cash to land them I bet.

any rookie RB they could have gotten in the 2nd round wouldn't scare any defense - and unfortunately they need that element to somewhat open up the passing game with the QB situation. No one is stacking the box for a rookie not named Gurley or maybe Gordon, and rookie RBs rarely have the hang of effective pass blocking out of the gate.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

That's fair. I'll just never be able to justify paying top dollar for a rb. They also could've drafted a RB in the second round and plugged him in like a handful of teams do each year. I get there's no QBs out there, but I'd rather spend shady money to make a great o-line. I understand they went after some guys in FA, but without the McCoy investment they would've had the cash to land them I bet.

McCoy is more than just a run of the mill RB though. He's such a versatile threat. He could have a record book season if the o line gels.

[Kirby Jackson]

That's fair. I'll just never be able to justify paying top dollar for a rb. They also could've drafted a RB in the second round and plugged him in like a handful of teams do each year. I get there's no QBs out there, but I'd rather spend shady money to make a great o-line. I understand they went after some guys in FA, but without the McCoy investment they would've had the cash to land them I bet.

They offered Bulaga more money than he signed for to stay in Green Bay. I don't know the other offensive line prospects that they missed out on. It's okay in a vacuum to say "if they didn't sign _____ they could have gotten a QB (or an OL or whatever." That makes sense until you plug in the names.

 

If there are no OL or QB worth that investment you should use it to upgrade somewhere else. The Bills did that with Hughes, Clay, Harvin, and McCoy. They allocated a lot of resources to really good football players. They could have signed lesser players at those positions for lesser money in order to have the money for QB, OL or whatever but if there are not candidates worth that $ at those positions you can't spend it there.

[Manther]

I read that 87% of the stats used on this board are pulled out of thin air.

 

Or, maybe I wrote that....

83% per Baeney Stinson.

[Pete]

I still wish we would of kept Kiko, resigned CJ, and been in a much better cap situation. But I am hoping Shady can prove me wrong. I think CJ is going to have a great season in New Orleans. It will be interesting which back has a better year

[Kirby Jackson]

I still wish we would of kept Kiko, resigned CJ, and been in a much better cap situation. But I am hoping Shady can prove me wrong. I think CJ is going to have a great season in New Orleans. It will be interesting which back has a better year

I think that Spiller has a big year but I don't think that it is a debate as to which is the superior back. Their careers have pretty much written that story already. Spiller is a talented playmaker but McCoy is an elite RB.

[Peter]

I still wish we would of kept Kiko, resigned CJ, and been in a much better cap situation. But I am hoping Shady can prove me wrong. I think CJ is going to have a great season in New Orleans. It will be interesting which back has a better year

Not only do you have a great name and great taste with respect to EPL teams, you are correct in what you say above.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Peter

[mead107]

I just shake my head enlightener. Seems you want to be a nut case. The crap people come up with in the off season , I shake my head.

[nucci]

I still wish we would of kept Kiko, resigned CJ, and been in a much better cap situation. But I am hoping Shady can prove me wrong. I think CJ is going to have a great season in New Orleans. It will be interesting which back has a better year

would have

[GunnerBill]

 

Had the Bills not signed Harvin for that 6 mill I would think that Whaley would have continued looking for upgrades at RT & RG. After all it was clearly the weakest area of the team last year, and OT Brian Bulaga / OG Jhari Evans would have been known solid huge upgrades.

 

They tried to get Bulaga - he was off the market before they signed Harvin that's the point. They also tried to get Boling.... they tried to get guys on the offensive line and lost out that is exactly what Whaley is saying. They then had the cap space because they had lost out on the line to pursue Harvin when he became available... and I am not a lover of the Harvin pick up, but your sequencing is out.