Shady trade will really set this team back

[PromoTheRobot]

Shady's been a complete bust so far.

[GG]

Actually...it's 99.9%, but let's keep that between you and me.

 

You're wrong. Bills actually lost 100% of the free agents they chose not to sign.

[shibuya]

It's about the Bills had a good enough team that we need to start talking about cap space and about resigning good players! It shows they are drafting better and improving overall...now just win some football games

 

 

Very nicely said. I concur fully

[thebandit27]

 

I agree with you FTL but I have tried to do that maths (admittedly using the less than scientific "overthecap" calculator) and even without Harvin, without Cassel, without Fred etc... if we want to keep Marcel and Glenn and Bradham (and save money to extend Gilmore next year) keeping the cap sustainable over the next 4 years is very difficult. Someone is going to have to go I think.

 

It's very likely that all of Harvin/Cassel/Fred will be gone next year. I found that Spotrac is usually pretty accurate for cap functions; have a look at this:

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2016/

 

If we assume a cap of $150M and neglect rollover space, Harvin's contract voiding will leave the team approximately $3M under the cap. Here's what I'm thinking as far as creating cap space:

 

Cuts

McKelvin (saves $3.9M)

C. Williams (saves $1.9M)

Lawson (saves $2.75M)

Urbik (saves $1.7M)

Kyle Williams (saves $5M)

 

That brings the cap room up to $18.25M

 

New Deals

Mario gets a new 4-year, $64M contract with $32M guaranteed, and a massive base salary in year 4. Assume this drops his cap number to ~$11M (I've posted the math on it previously)--saves $8.9M

Gilmore gets a new 5-year, $60M deal with $28M guaranteed. Assume a cap hit of around $8M for the first year, and approx. $10M for the next 3 thereafter--saves $3M

 

That gets the team up to ~$30.15M in cap space, without touching Charles Clay's deal (which I'll assume they won't do).

 

If Dareus gets a Suh-type deal (and he should IMO), it could be structured similar to the way that Houston did JJ Watt's contract, with a low signing bonus, but a boatload of small guarantees throughout in order to keep the cap hit fairly steady:

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/j.j.-watt/

 

So let's assume an annual cap it of around $14M for the first 3 years. That brings the team's cap space down to $16M, approximately $5M of which needs to go to draft picks.

 

So we're left with $11M in cap space to figure out Bradham and Glenn. It's possible that they may have to lose one of them, but I wouldn't say it's a certainty.

[Dr. Fong]

The defense didn't need Kiko and just by stepping on the field McCoy makes the offense better. I think it's a clear win. You want to talk about messing up future signings? Think about what it would have cost to re-sign Kiko if he kept playing at that level. Not saying he won't be a great player, I really would have like to see him play in this defense this year, but I'm not a big fan of paying so much for linebacker.

[BarleyNY]

It's about the Bills had a good enough team that we need to start talking about cap space and about resigning good players! It shows they are drafting better and improving overall...now just win some football games

It just show they are spending money, nothing else. Whether or not they've done that spending wisely remains to be seen. IMO it has been a mixed bag with some nice moves (Mario, Hughes) and some poor ones (Shady, Clay).

[Dr. Fong]

It just show they are spending money, nothing else. Whether or not they've done that spending wisely remains to be seen. IMO it has been a mixed bag with some nice moves (Mario, Hughes) and some poor ones (Shady, Clay).

 

How would you have rated the Hughes trade before he even stepped on the field? There were a LOT of people outside of Buffalo that thought the Mario signing was horrible. How about we at least wait until McCoy and Clay play a game before we assess the merits of those moves?

[nucci]

 

How would you have rated the Hughes trade before he even stepped on the field? There were a LOT of people outside of Buffalo that thought the Mario signing was horrible. How about we at least wait until McCoy and Clay play a game before we assess the merits of those moves?

Now what fun would that be??

[NoSaint]

 

It's very likely that all of Harvin/Cassel/Fred will be gone next year. I found that Spotrac is usually pretty accurate for cap functions; have a look at this:

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2016/

 

If we assume a cap of $150M and neglect rollover space, Harvin's contract voiding will leave the team approximately $3M under the cap. Here's what I'm thinking as far as creating cap space:

 

Cuts

McKelvin (saves $3.9M)

C. Williams (saves $1.9M)

Lawson (saves $2.75M)

Urbik (saves $1.7M)

Kyle Williams (saves $5M)

 

That brings the cap room up to $18.25M

 

New Deals

Mario gets a new 4-year, $64M contract with $32M guaranteed, and a massive base salary in year 4. Assume this drops his cap number to ~$11M (I've posted the math on it previously)--saves $8.9M

Gilmore gets a new 5-year, $60M deal with $28M guaranteed. Assume a cap hit of around $8M for the first year, and approx. $10M for the next 3 thereafter--saves $3M

 

That gets the team up to ~$30.15M in cap space, without touching Charles Clay's deal (which I'll assume they won't do).

 

If Dareus gets a Suh-type deal (and he should IMO), it could be structured similar to the way that Houston did JJ Watt's contract, with a low signing bonus, but a boatload of small guarantees throughout in order to keep the cap hit fairly steady:

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/j.j.-watt/

 

So let's assume an annual cap it of around $14M for the first 3 years. That brings the team's cap space down to $16M, approximately $5M of which needs to go to draft picks.

 

So we're left with $11M in cap space to figure out Bradham and Glenn. It's possible that they may have to lose one of them, but I wouldn't say it's a certainty.

And i think you miss the boat on clay. Next years contract is likely already practically written and signed. It's a designed restructure that is beneficial to both parties.

 

I also think you are low on the cap (next will be the year the new TV deals impact it). That one I'm not certain on a number for though, so we will see.

Edited July 23, 2015 by NoSaint

[YattaOkasan]

It just show they are spending money, nothing else. Whether or not they've done that spending wisely remains to be seen. IMO it has been a mixed bag with some nice moves (Mario, Hughes) and some poor ones (Shady, Clay).

I like that your examples of poor moves haven't gotten a chance to play yet. Not to say they will work out but you probably could've gone with C Williams instead.

[BillsVet]

A fan board will never permit much criticism, but...

 

It's rare that a team without a big dollar QB gets into cap trouble. That remains to be seen in Buffalo, but I suspect Mario's deal will be re-worked next year to free up space for others. This team is unique in one aspect: they haven't been to the playoffs in forever and clearly (with Rex's hiring) are in win-now mode minus a very good or better QB.

 

In the next 1-2 years Buffalo is looking at a few who'll command decent pay-days. The mark of a solid GM is how they do in selecting which talent to retain and which to let go, because you can't keep them all. Glenn, Bradham and Dareus are signed through 2015. Gilmore and Woods through 2016. Not all of those guys will be retained and should hit the market.

 

The Bills haven't been in this position since the late 90s because, frankly, they haven't had enough talent for decisions like this. The test for Whaley is how to manage the cap considering what they've given out.

[Lurker]

16 pages is not enough...

[thebandit27]

And i think you miss the boat on clay. Next years contract is likely already practically written and signed. It's a designed restructure that is beneficial to both parties.

 

I also think you are low on the cap (next will be the year the new TV deals impact it). That one I'm not certain on a number for though, so we will see.

 

Most likely you're correct...I deliberately left it that way to do a worst-case analysis.

 

Of course, the scenario I've outlined (assuming they do re-sign both Glenn and Bradham) means sitting out free agency (for the most part) and then finding depth replacements for McKelvin, Kyle, Lawson, & Urbik. Now, we could suppose that those guys are already somewhat on the roster with players like Darby, Cockrell, Charles, Bryant, Steward, R. Johnson, and C. Richardson. That's assuming a fair bit though IMO.

[BuffaninATL]

To your 3rd point about the Bills committing to a run-heavy offense, PERHAPS it's because of their outstanding QB situation.....just a wild hunch on my part 😉😉

[BigBuff423]

the more i look at the future we face regarding cuts etc, the more the mccoy trade looks like a horrible move, not due to talent or ability etc, but from a roster and financial standpoint.

 

1. after we complained for years about our tackle position, as well as our corners, looks like we will have to cut either glenn or gilmore. ok maybe its mckelvin or maybe its bradham after already losing kiko, or cutting fred early or shudder maybe even Mario.

 

2. We traded a low-cost fan favorite linebacker for a 16 milllion dollar RB right before we have to resign 4 starters. And didnt we try the premier running back route for the last 15 years? How far did we get with Antowain, Mcgahee, Lynch or Spiller??? the most productive runner we had was 2nd rounder travis henry anyway. So now instead of drafting RB in the first, we trade a 2nd, and will lose one of our 1sts (gilmore dareus or glenn) next year, all for the joy of having a top tier running back in his 6th year.

 

3. We finally have 5 high talent receiving options, both tackles solidified, and weak guards, so we decide on a run first offense? things got worse not better when we spent a 5th on carlos williams. this would have worked out fine if we hadnt gotten shady. But now it forces a cut of either fred or brown and if its brown, it means we wasted a 4rth and will never know what brown could have done here. If its fred, we lose fred, nuff said.

 

we overstocked at a position we really didnt need and by next year,in the end it will end up costing us a 1st, 2nd, and 4rth round pick.

the combination will be either...

 

Kiko, fred, & gilmore or....

kiko, brown, & glenn

or possibly even a....

kiko, mckelvin, bradham and Fred combination

or maybe we just lose Mario

 

either way, it was a bad move.

 

Go Bills!

 

First, there are many presumptions in your Post, specifically presuming the BILLS can't / won't afford to keep the aforementioned players. There are many financial moves that can be made to help alleviate the pressure towards the CAP, such as restructuring Mario, cutting McKelvin (which I think is a foregone conclusion after this season with the advent of Darby if he plays well), and others that help the team afford to keep those players. Also, possible the BILLS restructure Shady after one year and Clay, whom the overbid because they needed to in order to get that all-around tool type of TE and keep Miami from matching the offer.

 

Second, I wouldn't be "surprised" if the BILLS kept all of their RBs going into this year because it's obvious they will be a Run-Heavy Offense and will absolutely depend on healthy and rested RBs to contribute throughout the season (and hopefully post-season), so carrying that many, makes sense. Keep in mind, it only takes a groin pull and hyperextension to keep 2 RBs out of games a few weeks, which could be 1/4 the season if those injuries linger. So, for a team that will rely heavily on a running game, they will need to insure they have good, healthy RBs to keep the yards churning....the current roster allows that to happen.

 

Third, regarding the money they're giving to Shady this year, he is essentially the BILLS *star* as opposed to Brees, Brady, Luck, etc...so paying him *star* type money for a couple years while either the BILLS groom their guy, i.e. EJ, or Draft their guy next year, it makes sense to let the man who will carry much of the Offensive load on his shoulders, be paid well and feel as important as he will truly be to their success.

 

Overall, I disagree with your premise, I disagree with your intent, I disagree with your bleak approach to the future and think that in the Pre-Season of perpetual hope, you've just flushed it....so, "enlightener" is a term I would strongly discourage.

[Utah John]

A run-first offense needs a power back and a strong O line. Until I see the evidence that we have either of those, let alone both, I won't believe the Bills are headed to the playoffs. I think both the Jets and Dolphins have D lines that can stuff our O line, and I don't think McCoy is the kind of guy who can make holes on his own. What I see happening is opponents with good D lines needing only 6 in the box to stop the run, so regardless of the talent level of our WRs there will be abundant pass defenders to prevent our QBs from hitting quick routes to escape pressure.

 

If Kujo and Henderson both pan out, and if the rookie guard is the answer, and if Eric Wood returns to form, and if Cordy Glenn returns to form, then maybe we'll be OK. That's a lot of ifs.

 

I think Whaley falls in love with certain players and overpays to get them. The Bills gave up way too much to get Sammy Watkins, when there were other options. Why spend so much for Watkins when there were so many other, talented WRs available? Why Shady and not DeMarco Murray, whom Philly signed for a lot less than we're paying Shady, and who is in the same class?

 

The Bills are like a grocery shopper who decides to buy what's out of season, and pays too much. Buy strawberries when they're in season, and you get good strawberries for cheap. Wait three months and you pay a lot more, and they don't taste as good. The Bills went all in on a QB in the worst possible year for QBs. They paid way too much for a WR who might turn out to be the best WR in that year, or might not, when there were cheaper options available.

 

The Bills have gotten a lot better at spotting talent, but not so much at evaluating value.

[YoloinOhio]

I guess I will just never get on board with worrying about the salary cap. I'm too busy worrying about winning games. The cap is fluid and so is our payroll. Teams find ways to pay players they want to keep. It is useless to worry about how they will do it, at least for me. They pay people a lot if money to figure it out. I feel like it's a waste of time for the average fan. I only care about whether the product on the field is good. But to each his or her own.

Edited July 23, 2015 by YoloinOhio

[GunnerBill]

 

It's very likely that all of Harvin/Cassel/Fred will be gone next year. I found that Spotrac is usually pretty accurate for cap functions; have a look at this:

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2016/

 

If we assume a cap of $150M and neglect rollover space, Harvin's contract voiding will leave the team approximately $3M under the cap. Here's what I'm thinking as far as creating cap space:

 

Cuts

McKelvin (saves $3.9M)

C. Williams (saves $1.9M)

Lawson (saves $2.75M)

Urbik (saves $1.7M)

Kyle Williams (saves $5M)

 

That brings the cap room up to $18.25M

 

New Deals

Mario gets a new 4-year, $64M contract with $32M guaranteed, and a massive base salary in year 4. Assume this drops his cap number to ~$11M (I've posted the math on it previously)--saves $8.9M

Gilmore gets a new 5-year, $60M deal with $28M guaranteed. Assume a cap hit of around $8M for the first year, and approx. $10M for the next 3 thereafter--saves $3M

 

That gets the team up to ~$30.15M in cap space, without touching Charles Clay's deal (which I'll assume they won't do).

 

If Dareus gets a Suh-type deal (and he should IMO), it could be structured similar to the way that Houston did JJ Watt's contract, with a low signing bonus, but a boatload of small guarantees throughout in order to keep the cap hit fairly steady:

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/j.j.-watt/

 

So let's assume an annual cap it of around $14M for the first 3 years. That brings the team's cap space down to $16M, approximately $5M of which needs to go to draft picks.

 

So we're left with $11M in cap space to figure out Bradham and Glenn. It's possible that they may have to lose one of them, but I wouldn't say it's a certainty.

 

Thanks Bandit - that is helpful, appreciate your time. My concern when I tried it was less that I couldn't make 2016 work capwise but that when I looked ahead to 2017 and 2018 I have a very high cap percentage tied up in 8 or 9 guys and is then I start to worry about sustainability.

 

It also an interesting question that FTL raises... what if a high quality vet QB becomes available? Are they not in the market so that they can retain other talent?

[Webster Guy]

Ahhhhh. Evaluating trades before a snap of real football is played.

 

Lets start grading this year's draft while we are at it.....

[thebandit27]

 

Thanks Bandit - that is helpful, appreciate your time. My concern when I tried it was less that I couldn't make 2016 work capwise but that when I looked ahead to 2017 and 2018 I have a very high cap percentage tied up in 8 or 9 guys and is then I start to worry about sustainability.

 

It also an interesting question that FTL raises... what if a high quality vet QB becomes available? Are they not in the market so that they can retain other talent?

 

Sure, there's some semblance of kicking the can down the road; as Yolo points out though, there's always a way to create more room, and the cap goes up significantly every year.

 

As to your second question: if the right guy became available, then I believe they'd do what they had to in order to make it work. Whether that means trading a guy like Aaron Williams in a salary dump, or cutting a veteran like Eric Wood or Corey Graham, remains to be seen, but I think they'd go to lengths to make it happen.

 

That said, I doubt their guy will become available. It's more likely, IMO, that they'll try to cash in on what could be a very solid QB draft next year.