"How a rookie HC derailed a rookie QB"/All-22 of EJ Manuel

[FireChan]

I never realized how tough life is until I started watching infomercials.

[John from Riverside]

Man.... still going

 

OMG LOL

I spent last night going over my NFL rewind on the Texans game.....made play by play comments....then accidentally deleted the whole damn thing when i tried to submit it.......$$*$&%%%))%__$_

 

But anyways

 

There was a lot to like about EJ in that game.....the short cliffnotes

 

- His play was not nearly as bad when I went back and watched it

- Like most here....I was extremely upset about the Watt int

- Watt was intentionally going after EJ's knees........and Freddie AND our rookie OG both went after him for it.....but Watt is good and our coaching staff didnt do EJ ANY favors in this game

- When EJ would have a negative play....he would immediately follow it up with a positive one

- EJ made plays with his feet......he was under pressure the whole game.......right up until he threw the int at the end of the game (which by the way was obvious pass interference on Woods that was not called)

- After knowing what I know now about Orton's play......I think the should have either let EJ keep starting OR pulled him for a couple of games then put him back in

- EJ Manuel still has a chance of being the QB for this team......especially if he has a coaching staff that puts him into situations to be successfull

Edited July 20, 2015 by John from Hemet

[The Wiz]

[Doc]

OMG LOL

I spent last night going over my NFL rewind on the Texans game.....made play by play comments....then accidentally deleted the whole damn thing when i tried to submit it.......$$*$&%%%))%__$_

 

But anyways

 

There was a lot to like about EJ in that game.....the short cliffnotes

 

- His play was not nearly as bad when I went back and watched it

- Like most here....I was extremely upset about the Watt int

- Watt was intentionally going after EJ's knees........and Freddie AND our rookie OG both went after him for it.....but Watt is good and our coaching staff didnt do EJ ANY favors in this game

- When EJ would have a negative play....he would immediately follow it up with a positive one

- EJ made plays with his feet......he was under pressure the whole game.......right up until he threw the int at the end of the game (which by the way was obvious pass interference on Woods that was not called)

- After knowing what I know now about Orton's play......I think the should have either let EJ keep starting OR pulled him for a couple of games then put him back in

- EJ Manuel still has a chance of being the QB for this team......especially if he has a coaching staff that puts him into situations to be successfull

The OL will be the biggest factor in the success of the offense, and team, this year. Let's hope Incognito can at least provide above average OG play (and if he can attain Pro Bowl form again, so much the better) and Miller is as good as he appeared.

[John from Riverside]

The OL will be the biggest factor in the success of the offense, and team, this year. Let's hope Incognito can at least provide above average OG play (and if he can attain Pro Bowl form again, so much the better) and Miller is as good as he appeared.

A big factor

 

- While the bills attempted to run the ball a lot (and frankly too much on 1st down) they were not particulary effective at it........so they ran the ball for like 1 yard....2 yards....negative yards......and an ocassional longer run

- What we need is run blocking that actually is effective.....more consistant runs of 5 yards or more.....something that actually makes the defense adjust

- Then they need to trust their QB to be able to make throws on 1st down.......

 

It really is all about the O Line

[C.Biscuit97]

OMG LOL

 

I spent last night going over my NFL rewind on the Texans game.....made play by play comments....then accidentally deleted the whole damn thing when i tried to submit it.......$$*$&%%%))%__$_

 

But anyways

 

There was a lot to like about EJ in that game.....the short cliffnotes

 

- His play was not nearly as bad when I went back and watched it

- Like most here....I was extremely upset about the Watt int

- Watt was intentionally going after EJ's knees........and Freddie AND our rookie OG both went after him for it.....but Watt is good and our coaching staff didnt do EJ ANY favors in this game

- When EJ would have a negative play....he would immediately follow it up with a positive one

- EJ made plays with his feet......he was under pressure the whole game.......right up until he threw the int at the end of the game (which by the way was obvious pass interference on Woods that was not called)

- After knowing what I know now about Orton's play......I think the should have either let EJ keep starting OR pulled him for a couple of games then put him back in

- EJ Manuel still has a chance of being the QB for this team......especially if he has a coaching staff that puts him into situations to be successfull

Good notes John. As you know, I'm one of the biggest EJ guys on here. He was really bad in that game. But people ignore how bad the oline was. Given how much of a kitty cat he was, would Orton have even survived that game?

 

There were also big drops by the Wrs. And it was sickening that Fred Jackson was the only one who stood up to Watt, who was really dirty in that game.

 

Bad game for sure but it could be argued that Tannehill was just as bad at Buffalo. His coaches let him play through it and grow. Our coach parlayed a 9-7 season into coaching oline at one of the lowest profile jobs in pro sports.

[Dorkington]

The OL will be the biggest factor in the success of the offense, and team, this year. Let's hope Incognito can at least provide above average OG play (and if he can attain Pro Bowl form again, so much the better) and Miller is as good as he appeared.

Fully agree. If our OL gels, that means our run game will be good, and that will mean whatever QB that wins should have enough time to not make too many bone headed mistakes. At the very least we *should* have an average offense if our OL performs well.

[metzelaars_lives]

Come on guys, I really think we're going to figure out, together, in this thread,whether or not EJ is going to be a successful QB. Let's keep drilling down until we hit oil. No need to wait until training camp/preseason/actual NFL football - we can sort this out right now.

Me personally, I started my participation in this great thread by saying, "hey guys we're almost there, can't we just wait and see what happens?" But unfortunately that's not good enough for most people on this thread, who are on a mission to prove that the verdict is in: EJ Manuel is going to be really good because Doug Marrone. Edited July 20, 2015 by metzelaars_lives

[John from Riverside]

Good notes John. As you know, I'm one of the biggest EJ guys on here. He was really bad in that game. But people ignore how bad the oline was. Given how much of a kitty cat he was, would Orton have even survived that game?

 

There were also big drops by the Wrs. And it was sickening that Fred Jackson was the only one who stood up to Watt, who was really dirty in that game.

 

Bad game for sure but it could be argued that Tannehill was just as bad at Buffalo. His coaches let him play through it and grow. Our coach parlayed a 9-7 season into coaching oline at one of the lowest profile jobs in pro sports.

Sammy Watkins (who I think will be a star very quickly) was won of the culprits of dropping passes that he should have caught.......I counted at least 4

 

Chandler was not fighting for balls that were being thrown to him in traffic.....your TE HAS to do that!

 

Woods also had a throw that he had turned his head around quicker should have been a completion

 

EJ manuel did have some over throws here and there.......Fitzpatrick and more then he did

Me personally, I started my participation in this great thread by saying, "hey guys we're almost there, can't we just wait and see what happens?" But unfortunately that's not good enough for most people on this thread, who are on a mission to prove that the verdict is in: EJ Manuel is going to be really good because Doug Marrone.

You know Metz....every time you talk it because more clear your agenda.....

 

You try to twist it......but your not fooling anybody

[Cash]

 

He excelled on first downs for the first two games? I just think that's a classic example of cherry picking a stat. I haven't listened yet but if it correlates to that silly article then I probably won't.

 

Well, that would be cherry picking, if that's what the author was saying, but it wasn't. You seem like a pretty reasonable guy, so I'm guessing you either misread the article, or stopped reading after the intro, and (wrongly) assumed that the author was basing everything off the first 2 games of 2013. He actually bases it off a lot of things, but one of the most significant is that Manuel has consistently been good on first down, even when only allowed to throw 30% of the time.

 

2013:

 

 

But in weeks 4 onward, on 1st and 10 passes in one score games, EJ Manuel was 17/28 (61%) for 222 yds (7.9 ypa), with 2 TDs and 0 Ints. That equates to a 110 passer rating! Yet Marrone preferred to let the Bills run it 72% of the time on these downs starting in week 4...

 

2014:

 

On 1st and 10, Marrone called 33% pass plays, well below the 46% NFL average.

On first quarter, first down plays, Marrone called 33% pass plays, well below the 44% NFL average.

All of this despite the fact that in 2014, EJ Manuel went 31/46 (67%) for 321 yds (7.0 ypa), with 4 TDs and 1 Int on 1st down pass plays. That equates to a 107.2 passer rating.

 

I've watched the same EJ Manuel as you have the last 2 years. He's shaky and inconsistent, but even though he hasn't been very good overall, he has been pretty good on first down. If he'd had competent playcalling the last 2 years, he could've still been the same shaky guy, still miss open receivers too often, but nevertheless moved the ball much more effectively. Or maybe not. 74 passes is not a very large sample size. But it's all we have so far, and at least the early returns on first-down passing are good. And frankly, it syncs up with the eye test as well - for me, anyway. Just going from impressions I've gotten while watching the games, Manuel's seemed to be most effective when the D has to respect the threat of the run, and even better on play action. When the D knows he has to pass (like on third and long), he's usually been pretty bad.

[thewildrabbit]

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/how-a-rookie-head-coach-derailed-a-rookie-quarterback-then-vanished-with-4-million-071515

 

 

Edit - related article added

@RQUINN619: All-22 Breakdown of #Bills QB EJ Manuel: Does He Have What it Takes? http://t.co/mbW1IEiJcM http://t.co/TKorLN6vJ9

In regards to EJ in his first two years. The QB doesn't play in a vacuum, and he really is only as good as the team, players / coaching staff around him as a rookie. I for one am grateful to Doug Moron for benching EJ after week 4 in his second year, and thus allowing him to survive the season by not playing behind that 30th ranked horrid line.

 

I look back at that 2014 season and see that in those first two games when the offense handed off 33 times vs 22 & 26 passes respectively while winning both games. Then asking EJ to attempt 40 passes vs 22 runs against the Chargers in the next game was downright stupid. Then 44 pass attempts against Houston was throwing EJ right into the teeth of that Texans pass rush. Which btw was about the only thing that Houston defense was good at, at that point.

 

Kyle Orton wasn't nearly as bad as so many make him out to be, and I can see why he bolted for the door as the season ended. Very grateful for that too, as it probably helped Marrone in his decision to quit the Bills. Although, if Kyle Orton had returned I could envision him playing much, much better with this years offensive improvements, RB's, WR's, O line players, coaches.

 

I think most of the fan base now considers Marrone and his offensive coaching staff thoroughly inept, and much of the credit of that 9-7 season should go to Schwartz / Orton.

 

With only 14 game starts in two years for EJ which is not even a full single season, and I can see him still being in the process of developing into an NFL QB. IE growing pains. I just can't help but ask if this years off season moves did enough to fortify the line that was the weakest area of last years team.

[John from Riverside]

In regards to EJ in his first two years. The QB doesn't play in a vacuum, and he really is only as good as the team, players / coaching staff around him as a rookie. I for one am grateful to Doug Moron for benching EJ after week 4 in his second year, and thus allowing him to survive the season by not playing behind that 30th ranked horrid line.

 

I look back at that 2014 season and see that in those first two games when the offense handed off 33 times vs 22 & 26 passes respectively while winning both games. Then asking EJ to attempt 40 passes vs 22 runs against the Chargers in the next game was downright stupid. Then 44 pass attempts against Houston was throwing EJ right into the teeth of that Texans pass rush. Which btw was about the only thing that Houston defense was good at, at that point.

 

Kyle Orton wasn't nearly as bad as so many make him out to be, and I can see why he bolted for the door as the season ended. Very grateful for that too, as it probably helped Marrone in his decision to quit the Bills. Although, if Kyle Orton had returned I could envision him playing much, much better with this years offensive improvements, RB's, WR's, O line players, coaches.

 

I think most of the fan base now considers Marrone and his offensive coaching staff thoroughly inept, and much of the credit of that 9-7 season should go to Schwartz / Orton.

 

With only 14 game starts in two years for EJ which is not even a full single season, and I can see him still being in the process of developing into an NFL QB. IE growing pains. I just can't help but ask if this years off season moves did enough to fortify the line that was the weakest area of last years team.

I dont like how Orton started playing it safe when he realized the bills offense was gonna be good....he totally went into a turtle shell.

 

Dont want him back.

 

Well, that would be cherry picking, if that's what the author was saying, but it wasn't. You seem like a pretty reasonable guy, so I'm guessing you either misread the article, or stopped reading after the intro, and (wrongly) assumed that the author was basing everything off the first 2 games of 2013. He actually bases it off a lot of things, but one of the most significant is that Manuel has consistently been good on first down, even when only allowed to throw 30% of the time.

 

2013:

 

2014:

 

I've watched the same EJ Manuel as you have the last 2 years. He's shaky and inconsistent, but even though he hasn't been very good overall, he has been pretty good on first down. If he'd had competent playcalling the last 2 years, he could've still been the same shaky guy, still miss open receivers too often, but nevertheless moved the ball much more effectively. Or maybe not. 74 passes is not a very large sample size. But it's all we have so far, and at least the early returns on first-down passing are good. And frankly, it syncs up with the eye test as well - for me, anyway. Just going from impressions I've gotten while watching the games, Manuel's seemed to be most effective when the D has to respect the threat of the run, and even better on play action. When the D knows he has to pass (like on third and long), he's usually been pretty bad.

This is mostly every QB in the league outside of about 5 of them.

[C.Biscuit97]

I dont like how Orton started playing it safe when he realized the bills offense was gonna be good....he totally went into a turtle shell.

 

Dont want him back.

 

This is mostly every QB in the league outside of about 5 of them.

Eh, Orton became the same mediocre at best player he was for 10 years. He regressed to the norm.

[metzelaars_lives]

Sammy Watkins (who I think will be a star very quickly) was won of the culprits of dropping passes that he should have caught.......I counted at least 4

 

Chandler was not fighting for balls that were being thrown to him in traffic.....your TE HAS to do that!

 

Woods also had a throw that he had turned his head around quicker should have been a completion

 

EJ manuel did have some over throws here and there.......Fitzpatrick and more then he did

You know Metz....every time you talk it because more clear your agenda.....

 

You try to twist it......but your not fooling anybody

My agenda is to say let's just see what happens. If he happens to emerge as the guy that would be awesome. I'm just not more sold on the prospect of that happening because of this article or people's opinions in this thread. That's all.

Edited July 20, 2015 by metzelaars_lives

[John from Riverside]

Eh, Orton became the same mediocre at best player he was for 10 years. He regressed to the norm.

I will tell you what I miss.....

 

I miss that 1st year EJ Manuel that would try to make a play with his athletic ability when there was nothing anywhere else to be had.....

 

and yes..that is the same QB that took the hit to the knee in the Browns game....but at least he played with some passion.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Me personally, I started my participation in this great thread by saying, "hey guys we're almost there, can't we just wait and see what happens?" But unfortunately that's not good enough for most people on this thread, who are on a mission to prove that the verdict is in: EJ Manuel is going to be really good because Doug Marrone.

Wrong interpretation Metz.

 

"We are on a mission to prove that" Moron did little to allow EJ to grow and improve

We have been saying for months that we need more games under center with a competent Offensive coaching staff before we say EJ can't cut it!

 

I have been "on a mission" to prove that" EJ is as good as or a better option that Orton and the newest 10 year NFL project!

 

I will tell you what I miss.....

 

I miss that 1st year EJ Manuel that would try to make a play with his athletic ability when there was nothing anywhere else to be had.....

 

and yes..that is the same QB that took the hit to the knee in the Browns game....but at least he played with some passion.

bravo!!! excellent point.

Edited July 20, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[Fixxxer]

OMG LOL

I spent last night going over my NFL rewind on the Texans game.....made play by play comments....then accidentally deleted the whole damn thing when i tried to submit it.......$$*$&%%%))%__$_

 

But anyways

 

There was a lot to like about EJ in that game.....the short cliffnotes

 

- His play was not nearly as bad when I went back and watched it

- Like most here....I was extremely upset about the Watt int

- Watt was intentionally going after EJ's knees........and Freddie AND our rookie OG both went after him for it.....but Watt is good and our coaching staff didnt do EJ ANY favors in this game

- When EJ would have a negative play....he would immediately follow it up with a positive one

- EJ made plays with his feet......he was under pressure the whole game.......right up until he threw the int at the end of the game (which by the way was obvious pass interference on Woods that was not called)

- After knowing what I know now about Orton's play......I think the should have either let EJ keep starting OR pulled him for a couple of games then put him back in

- EJ Manuel still has a chance of being the QB for this team......especially if he has a coaching staff that puts him into situations to be successfull

 

Up until the interception, EJ was a mixed bag, not great but not certainly the worst performance by an NFL QB as it was described by some in this board, not even close.

I didn't think Watt was intentionally going at EJ's knees, though some of those hits could have seriously injured him.

 

We reached the red zone three times and we failed to throw a pass at the endzone in all three trips there. In the last trip, EJ throws the pick 6, an intended quick pass to Fred in the flat where we didn't even try to chip or slow Watt down to clear a passing lane.

 

After the int, EJ went into a funk, until he threw the long pass to MIke Williams to get back into the game. After that, a series going 3 and out and the int that sealed the game.

 

As I said earlier in this thread, the offense was bad overall, couldn't stop Watt, like EJ, Watkins was bad on this one and Fred is amazing. Despite gaining 60 yards, CJ Spiller missed some easy holes by trying to bounce outside.

[John from Riverside]

 

Up until the interception, EJ was a mixed bag, not great but not certainly the worst performance by an NFL QB as it was described by some in this board, not even close.

I didn't think Watt was intentionally going at EJ's knees, though some of those hits could have seriously injured him.

 

We reached the red zone three times and we failed to throw a pass at the endzone in all three trips there. In the last trip, EJ throws the pick 6, an intended quick pass to Fred in the flat where we didn't even try to chip or slow Watt down to clear a passing lane.

 

After the int, EJ went into a funk, until he threw the long pass to MIke Williams to get back into the game. After that, a series going 3 and out and the int that sealed the game.

 

As I said earlier in this thread, the offense was bad overall, couldn't stop Watt, like EJ, Watkins was bad on this one and Fred is amazing. Despite gaining 60 yards, CJ Spiller missed some easy holes by trying to bounce outside.

Its pretty much what I saw

 

I think what happened next was Marrone panicked and benched EJ......thinking that Orton's veteran presence was going to fix the problem that he and his own ineptitude were creating......Orton could not over come in and frankly started playing WORSE then EJ becuase EJ prolonged plays with his athletisism and Orton has NO athlete him him at all.......

 

We missed an opportunity there to see if EJ is the man.....and it rolled over into this year.

[OCinBuffalo]

EJ didn't deserve to be benched. Simple as that. Now we are stuck not knowing. On the bright side though, we don't know so there is still hope.

Yup and yup.

 

Anybody who says they "know" anything about EJ is full of it. All they are doing is invoking their choice-supportive bias. Explained: Either they, immediately, chose to believe Todd McShay's "slow eyes/wasted pick" assessment, or, they chose to believe that EJ's work ethic, character, and "best player we've had in 30 years" stories, from various sources, assessment. In either case, all further info, day in, year out, will be processed in a way that supports the original choice, to the point of absurdity.

 

Symptom: Any poster who remains incapable of processing and accepting that Marrone purposefully screwed up the QB situation for no other reason than covering his own ass. Disease: Choice-Supportive Bias.

 

3 things are still hilarious:

1. practically every heated exchange on this subject distills directly from choice-supportive bias. It's a F'ing case study that requires no effort.

2. my avatar/quote is still relevant, because EJ still hasn't played enough games to qualify as "not a rookie"

3. almost all of the "analyses" here are either based on the woeful "eye test", or equally woeful use of analytics. It's hard to decide upon a worse fate for the world, one where the "eye test" of rank amateurs is used to run things, or, one where the < 0 analytics knowledge of rank amateurs is used to run things.

 

I want to change my avatar. But, I can't. Not until it's truth is accepted, and choice-supportive bias on EJ is eradicated.

 

We simply do not know. Deal with it.

Edited July 20, 2015 by OCinBuffalo

[Big Blitz]

The 2014 Bills offense to me was one of the worst "coached" offenses I have ever seen.

 

The RBs. All regressed. CJ stunk. Numerous times he missed holes, and his pass pro is garbage.

 

The oline. From banking on Pears to be your RG. To the cones we had at LG. Poorly coached. They looked overwhelmed on a weekly basis.

 

The TEs were a laughing stock. Chandler just cannot block. He is totally useless at it. So as a D you knew...oh that Smith guy is on the field---it's a run.

 

EJ. Was worse then he was his first 5 games in 2013.

 

 

I think EJ is going to win the starting job. Just a hunch. I think Roman wants to use him like he did Kap. The biggest thing will be getting him to not fear making plays with his feet. That and well throwing downfield. But I truly believe that problem is as much protection as anything.

 

Edited July 20, 2015 by Big Blitz