The GOP Nomination--The Donald and So Much More!

[DC Tom]

Not really. He benefited from some "right place, right time" stuff but for the most part he's a !@#$ing Kardashian. Do some real research on the guy. He's a clown.

 

He actually did okay early on; he brought some !@#$ed-up projects back on track and completed them ahead of schedule and under budget early in his career, which is no small feat of management.

 

But that was about 40 years ago, before he stopped being a "real estate mogul" and became nothing more than a brand.

[IDBillzFan]

Not really. He benefited from some "right place, right time" stuff but for the most part he's a !@#$ing Kardashian. Do some real research on the guy. He's a clown.

You're pissin' in the wind here. Ozy's full on trippin' the light Trumptastic.

[Magox]

You're pissin' in the wind here. Ozy's full on trippin' the light Trumptastic.

It's not just Ozzy, there are a lot of them. I haven't seen anything like this since Obama, he has the most adoring fans of anyone I have seen from the right in my adult life. Grant it, Obamas support was much much widespread, but the devotion and intensity is pretty remarkable. As of right now, I see Trump winning the first three primary states of NH, Iowa and South Carolina. His base of support is much deeper and intense than any other of the candidates but his ceilings is one of the lowest. The only way the race evens out is once the field whittles down. The anti Trump vote as this progresses will be intense, and it's not going to be the "establishment" that will rally behind another candidate, it will be all those people who believe Trump is a clown, and there are a lot of them.

[Tiberius]

The white percentage of the electorate has been shrinking for decades and will be about 2 points smaller in 2016 than in 2012. In 2008, Barack Obama became thefirst president elected while losing the white vote by double digits. In 2012, Hispanics, the nation’s largest minority, were for the first time a double-digit (10 percent) portion of the electorate. White voters were nearly 90 percent of Romney’s vote. In 1988, George H.W. Bush won 59 percent of the white vote, which translated into 426 electoral votes. Twenty-four years later, Romney won 59 percent of the white vote and just 206 electoral votes. He lost the nonwhite vote by 63 points, receiving just 17 percent of it. If the Republicans’ 2016 nominee does not do better than Romney did among nonwhite voters, he will need 65 percent of the white vote, which was last achieved by Ronald Reagan when carrying 49 states in 1984. Romney did even slightly worse among Asian Americans — the fastest-growing minority — than among Hispanics. Evidently, minorities generally detected Republican ambivalence, even animus, about them. This was before Trump began receiving rapturous receptionsbecause he obliterates inhibitions about venting hostility.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-havoc-that-donald-trump-wreaks--on-his-own-party/2015/08/26/7418c2c8-4b4c-11e5-84df-923b3ef1a64b_story.html

The more he talks the bigger the chance of a Democrat--any Democrat--winning the White House. And that's even if he somehow doesn't win the nomination.

[Tiberius]

Poor Fred Barnes! He must feel nostalgic for when the base was in love with W in the same way.

 

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/among-trumpies_1018666.html

 

--The intensity of their feelings about Trump was striking. It was noticeable in how they spoke of him in contrast with their view of members of Congress as “useless.” In 1992, Luntz worked for Ross Perot’s third party campaign for president. Perot got 19 percent of the vote in the general election. “This is much deeper and intense that [it was for] Perot,” Luntz said. And a majority of the 29 said they’d stick with Trump if he runs third party

 

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[Magox]

Hypocrite Alert!

 

Trump ushered in a pair of men — one to talk about the awards and a Democratic strategist who works with nonprofits — and three young DREAMer activists. The DREAMers were on a tour sharing their stories with those less likely to support them, like Tea Party supporters.

Trump, according to four attendees who recounted the meeting to BuzzFeed News, talked about how rich he is (“This is the best view in New York!”), the golf courses he was building around the world, and about each prospective Republican candidate (“What do you think about Jeb Bush?”) and whether Latinos liked them.

Then the DREAMers began telling their life stories.

Jose Machado spoke about how his mom was deported when he was 15 years old. Diego Sanchez talked about how he was trying to go to law school and struggling to come up with ways to pay for it.

Trump alternated between making no sense and broad ignorance on the issue, according to Gaby Pacheco, a prominent national activist and the third DREAMer in the meeting.

“Don’t you think someone in a wheelchair is more deserving than you all?” Trump said to silence.

But he also kept asking, “Can’t you just become a citizen if you want to?” No, we can’t, the activists said, there’s no process for that. Trump was reflective, the activists said.

“You know, the truth is I have a lot of illegals working for me in Miami,” he told them, using the term for undocumented immigrants those in the meeting found offensive. “You know in Miami, my golf course is tended by all these Hispanics — if it wasn’t for them my lawn wouldn’t be the lawn it is, it’s the best lawn,” Pacheco recalled Trump saying.

Trump said he knew the work of undocumented people is what makes his golf courses and hotels great.

“At the end of the day, what we’re looking at is a value proposition for America,” Tijerino said to Trump at the end of the meeting, referring to immigration legislation.

“You’ve convinced me,” Trump said to the delight of the activists in the room.

“We all smiled at each other and said, ‘Wow, we did it, we got this guy to change his mind,’” Pacheco said.

 

[keepthefaith]

It's not just Ozzy, there are a lot of them. I haven't seen anything like this since Obama, he has the most adoring fans of anyone I have seen from the right in my adult life. Grant it, Obamas support was much much widespread, but the devotion and intensity is pretty remarkable. As of right now, I see Trump winning the first three primary states of NH, Iowa and South Carolina. His base of support is much deeper and intense than any other of the candidates but his ceilings is one of the lowest. The only way the race evens out is once the field whittles down. The anti Trump vote as this progresses will be intense, and it's not going to be the "establishment" that will rally behind another candidate, it will be all those people who believe Trump is a clown, and there are a lot of them.

The electorate of the United States Re-elected Barack Obama. Anything is possible, even when it makes no sense at all.

[GG]

The electorate of the United States Re-elected Barack Obama. Anything is possible, even when it makes no sense at all.

 

So we should double down with nonsense with the Trump candidacy?

 

I think I need to change my avatar to Terry Crews

[Magox]

The electorate of the United States Re-elected Barack Obama. Anything is possible, even when it makes no sense at all.

 

Sorry, your logic doesn't hold up. Basically your argument is one from a partisan perspective. Even though I vehemently disagree with Obama on a ton of issues, he is popular with young, hispanic, asian, black and liberal voters. He has a winning coalition and he's proven that.

 

Trump's popularity has a much lower ceiling than Obama's. I won't go in depth about his appeal to blacks and asians, because I don't know. But I can safely say that they won't be part of his coalition. And we already know that Hispanics are going to be out in record numbers by a wide margin if he were to get the nomination.

 

The only way that Trump could win is if his opponent is really weak and that he absolutely runs up the score with whites and peels off a higher % of black votes than a typical year. In other words above 10%.

 

Check this simulator out. You can play with the numbers.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

 

Bottom line, you need Florida to win.

 

Last year Romney got 59% of the White vote, 27% of the Latin Vote and 6% of the black vote.

 

Trump is headed towards 15-18% of the Latin Vote.

 

If you plug in 62% of the white vote (which I don't believe he will get) bump up the black vote to 10% and the Latin vote, lets say to even 22% (Which he absolutely wouldn't get)

 

He still loses Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia and Iowa.

 

Like I said, I base my conclusions largely on data.

 

Here is more data:

 

Matchups among all American voters show:

• Biden tops Trump 48 - 40 percent. He beats Bush 45 - 39 percent and gets 44 percent to Rubio's 41 percent.
• Clinton edges Trump 45 - 41 percent. She gets 42 percent to Bush's 40 percent and gets 44 percent to Rubio's 43 percent.
• Sanders edges Trump 44 - 41 percent and edges Bush 43 - 39 percent. Rubio gets 41 percent to Sanders' 40 percent.

If Trump runs as a third party candidate, Clinton gets 40 percent, with 24 percent each for Bush and Trump.

Jeb Bush has a negative 32 - 41 percent favorability rating among all voters, with Clinton getting a negative 39 - 51 percent score, her worst ever. Ratings for other top contenders are:

• 48 - 39 percent for Biden;
• Negative 36 - 54 percent for Trump;
• 41 - 27 percent for Rubio;
• 32 - 28 percent for Sanders.

Trump and Clinton have the worst scores among top candidates on honesty:

• Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, voters say 61 - 34 percent, her lowest score ever;
• Trump is not honest and trustworthy, voters say 54 - 38 percent.

 

 

 

Here is the actual poll. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2274

 

 

This poll along with a number of others says a few things. Hillary is a weak candidate, all you have to do is look at Biden and you can view him as a "generic" candidate and fares much better. Of course once he steps into the ring his numbers will eventually go down at some point.

 

Two, look at how many people don't like Trump, not only do they not like him but they think he is a carnival barker.

 

But until this race whittles down to just 2-4 people, he is going to continue to dominate, simply because his followers are entranced with him, and no matter what positions he takes or how many times he flops, even if he flops from one position to another within minutes, they don't care.

 

So, that's where we are.

[Tiberius]

 

But until this race whittles down to just 2-4 people, he is going to continue to dominate, simply because his followers are entranced with him, and no matter what positions he takes or how many times he flops, even if he flops from one position to another within minutes, they don't care.

 

So, that's where we are.

Awesome post! I was trying to do the numbers for who the "establishment" candidate could be. Sorry about the term, hope you know what I mean. But I don't see any of the candidates dropping out too soon. Hell Perry and Paul are still sticking around. My guess is Trump wins a primary in a wildly divided field and then Republicans will start to pressure Christie and.... To drop out of the race, but all of them, Walker, Bush, Christie, Rubio will all be trying to hang on long enough to be the guy which could be a disaster for GOP. Still a lot of train wreck ahead. And if crazy Ben Carson drops out, where does his support go? He is number two in some states, but his social Conservatism doesn't seem to fit in with Trump's style, but who knows.

 

I guess the tragedy for Republicans is how weak the Democratic field is. Hilary isn't much of a campaigner. Imagine her against Scott Walker? What a snooozer election that would be. But with The Donald, the Democrats look almost like a shoe in to win.

[keepthefaith]

 

So we should double down with nonsense with the Trump candidacy?

 

I think I need to change my avatar to Terry Crews

I'm not saying what we should do as a country or who we should elect. I'm simply pointing out that as a nation we are very capable of electing a president that for many seems like an obvious bad choice or has questionable policy positions.

[Nanker]

 

I heard that press conference. The dumbass reporter tried to talk over everybody, then claims he was bullied. Every other reporter I've heard interviewed says that guy, not Trump, was the bully. And Trump was explicitly clear that he should "wait [his] turn" and be respectful of the other reporters there.

 

But, since Trump told the Univision reporter to "go back to Univision," that reporter got the anti-Latino slur he was looking for.

http://youtu.be/0uIx_7srVj0

[Tiberius]

I'm not saying what we should do as a country or who we should elect. I'm simply pointing out that as a nation we are very capable of electing a president that for many seems like an obvious bad choice or has questionable policy positions.

 

It's always been like that. You think people didn't hate Jefferson.

[keepthefaith]

 

Sorry, your logic doesn't hold up. Basically your argument is one from a partisan perspective. Even though I vehemently disagree with Obama on a ton of issues, he is popular with young, hispanic, asian, black and liberal voters. He has a winning coalition and he's proven that.

 

Trump's popularity has a much lower ceiling than Obama's. I won't go in depth about his appeal to blacks and asians, because I don't know. But I can safely say that they won't be part of his coalition. And we already know that Hispanics are going to be out in record numbers by a wide margin if he were to get the nomination.

 

The only way that Trump could win is if his opponent is really weak and that he absolutely runs up the score with whites and peels off a higher % of black votes than a typical year. In other words above 10%.

 

Check this simulator out. You can play with the numbers.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

 

Bottom line, you need Florida to win.

 

Last year Romney got 59% of the White vote, 27% of the Latin Vote and 6% of the black vote.

 

Trump is headed towards 15-18% of the Latin Vote.

 

If you plug in 62% of the white vote (which I don't believe he will get) bump up the black vote to 10% and the Latin vote, lets say to even 22% (Which he absolutely wouldn't get)

 

He still loses Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia and Iowa.

 

Like I said, I base my conclusions largely on data.

 

Here is more data:

 

Here is the actual poll. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2274

 

 

This poll along with a number of others says a few things. Hillary is a weak candidate, all you have to do is look at Biden and you can view him as a "generic" candidate and fares much better. Of course once he steps into the ring his numbers will eventually go down at some point.

 

Two, look at how many people don't like Trump, not only do they not like him but they think he is a carnival barker.

 

But until this race whittles down to just 2-4 people, he is going to continue to dominate, simply because his followers are entranced with him, and no matter what positions he takes or how many times he flops, even if he flops from one position to another within minutes, they don't care.

 

So, that's where we are.

and bunches of experts in the summer of '12 said that a president with a 45% ish approval rating and unemployment above x% has never won re-election. I don't disagree with your present assessment at all and by now I would have thought Trump would have dropped some as he has tried pretty hard to blow himself up with some of the comments but he's still motoring down the track. Maybe after a couple more debates we'll see a candidate or two make a move up.

[Ozymandius]

You're pissin' in the wind here. Ozy's full on trippin' the light Trumptastic.

 

He's such a great man. Such leadership, quick-thinking, and care for the people of this country. I have no doubt he will make America great again if given the chance.

Hypocrite Alert!

 

 

More quick thinking by Donald to humanely deport 4 latinos from his office. Love it!

 

Like I said, I base my conclusions largely on data.

 

Based on data, yes, but also on your assumptions about turnout and vote share. We already have a bet, and I fully anticipate you paying me if it's a Donald vs Hillary matchup.

I'm not saying what we should do as a country or who we should elect. I'm simply pointing out that as a nation we are very capable of electing a president that for many seems like an obvious bad choice or has questionable policy positions.

 

We don't need to downplay his policies. They are wonderful. Well, we've only seen one paper so far, but wall + strict employer enforcement + more border security will work.

[Tiberius]

 

He's such a great man. Such leadership, quick-thinking, and care for the people of this country. I have no doubt he will make America great again if given the chance.

 

What's so great about him? I have to admit I never watched his tv show and only knew about him only in passing. I thought his entry into the race was just a joke or something. He just seems like a jackass to me.

[Ozymandius]

It's always been like that. You think people didn't hate Jefferson.

 

That's true. People rail on Trump, but the odds-on favorite Jeb is just about as hated. Can't please them all.

[Ozymandius]

What's so great about him? I have to admit I never watched his tv show and only knew about him only in passing. I thought his entry into the race was just a joke or something. He just seems like a jackass to me.

 

Watch his rallies, which are on TV like all the time now.

 

He's a forceful personality. He's arrogant but somehow charming at the same time. He seems like he has strong leadership skills; watch how he handled Jorge Ramos.

 

He has creative ideas. Taking ISIS' oil fields to give some money to the families of soldiers that died in Iraq? I like that. Charging Japan and Germany for our military servicemen stationed there? Hey, why not. We have a 19 trillion dollar debt.

[Tiberius]

 

That's true. People rail on Trump, but the odds-on favorite Jeb is just about as hated. Can't please them all.

Actually, the Trump phenomenon kind of reminds me of Andrew Jackson. The Establishment HATED him, and he was a pretty bad person. Only white men could vote back then and they got their man in the White House. If only white men voted today, Trump would be looking hard to beat!

 

Watch his rallies, which are on TV like all the time now.

 

He's a forceful personality. He's arrogant but somehow charming at the same time. He seems like he has strong leadership skills; watch how he handled Jorge Ramos.

 

He has creative ideas. Taking ISIS' oil fields to give some money to the families of soldiers that died in Iraq? I like that. Charging Japan and Germany for our military servicemen stationed there? Hey, why not. We have a 19 trillion dollar debt.

I have been watching them, I'm so the Summer of Trump! This is a historical event that has legs, imo

[Deranged Rhino]

What's so great about him? I have to admit I never watched his tv show and only knew about him only in passing. I thought his entry into the race was just a joke or something. He just seems like a jackass to me.

 

 

Actually, the Trump phenomenon kind of reminds me of Andrew Jackson. The Establishment HATED him, and he was a pretty bad person. Only white men could vote back then and they got their man in the White House. If only white men voted today, Trump would be looking hard to beat!

I have been watching them, I'm so the Summer of Trump! This is a historical event that has legs, imo

 

In just 12 minutes, Gator's entire perspective can change from admittedly not knowing much about Trump to concluding Trump's campaign is now "historical" and "has legs".